Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[sun_tzu]

Potentially.

Though I think more likely is that she resigns/ is pushed out after MV3 fails. At that point I’ve no idea.

A Tory leadership election where the only way to win over their old, Brexit-y membership base is to promise a no deal exit?

yup pretty nailed on whoever wins the tory leadership will have a huge hard on for brexit

Id guess you would see a pretty wide field of:
johnson, Mogg, Ledsom, Javid, Raab, Gove, Davies..

Have a feeling if Boris can get to the final two he would win with the party membership but that through deals the rest might be able to force him out in the MP only rounds
I'd guess Pop will win... he will be able to play the loyalty card which will get him enough votes... he was seen as putting in a good performance against corbyn... he was a pretty prominent face of brexit during the referendum and perhaps most importantly the man has no real scruples as far as i can tell and will promice anybody anything to get their support on side during the MP's ballots

Probably something like
PM... Pob (Gove)
Chancellor... Mogg
Foreign sec... Davies
Home Sec... Ledsom
Brexit sec (presuming e still have one for on going negotiations)... Johnson
Defence... Fox
Trade... Raab
Health - meh just sell the NHS to america as part of a trade deal

 

[Smores]

According to Reuters, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, told fellow EU leaders during the EU27 discussion (ie, after Theresa May had left the room) that he thought May had only a 10% chance of winning the vote next week before he arrived at the summit. After hearing her address the meeting, he was revising that down to 5%, he said. Donald Tusk, the European commission president, said Macron was being “very optimistic”, Reuters says.

Ouch, they're all clearly very fed up with her even Brexit aside I'm not sure she can continue.

If the EU leaders could make the delay conditional on her stepping down i feel like they would.

 

[stevoc]

That problems easily solved.

United Ireland?

 

[sun_tzu]

Ouch, they're all clearly very fed up with her even Brexit aside I'm not sure she can continue.

If the EU leaders could make the delay conditional on her stepping down i feel like they would.

Im not sure... I mean Johnson is the favourite to replace her with the bookies and Im not sure any of them want to deal with him zip wiring into negotiations...

 

[The Firestarter]

Ouch, they're all clearly very fed up with her even Brexit aside I'm not sure she can continue.

If the EU leaders could make the delay conditional on her stepping down i feel like they would.

Although everyone would like that , I think it will be rightly perceived as meddling into UK internal affairs if they state demands on who is the PM. After all, the EU is not the US.

 

[711]

Well, my 99.9% was because brexit is not ready for a No Deal, whatever the MP say. Not by legislation, not in contingency.
Asking the EU to be back is quite different than revoking article 50. If the latest would be swallowing UK MPs pride, would be under the UK control. Begging the EU to be in again (and of course re-trigger article 50 even less unlikely), bretraying the "will of the people" and so, would be something worth to behold. And still, would not be revocation

As pointed out you were wrong in thinking we couldn't revoke during the extension, but in addition you're also wrong in not understanding what it means. We wouldn't be 'asking to be back', we would never have left in the first place. In hindsight you being 99.9% certain of the outcome should have warned me.

 

[Smores]

Top tory donor calling for a unity government. It seems like the most logical route forward once May has stepped down but i have no idea how in practice we'd get there.

 

[nimic]

Top tory donor calling for a unity government. It seems like the most logical route forward once May has stepped down but i have no idea how in practice we'd get there.

Wouldn't that basically mean Labour taking on more blame/responsibility for the Brexit crisis? Not sure that would be such a great idea for them.

 

[SteveJ]

Can Mrs May pull Tuesday's vote?

 

[sun_tzu]

Top tory donor calling for a unity government. It seems like the most logical route forward once May has stepped down but i have no idea how in practice we'd get there.

Not sure Corbyn is gonna sit round a table with chukka based on his last tantrum

 

[sun_tzu]

Can Mrs May pull Tuesday's vote?

Yes... I believe she has to make an amendable statement by next Tuesday which everyone assumed would be the vote... It does not have to be but an amendable statement on brexit would have to happen and possibly depending on amendments she would then loose control of the timing of when to re-present her vote... So it would be a gamble but if she is convinced she will loose the vote anyway she may go with that

 

[Smores]

Not sure Corbyn is gonna sit round a table with chukka based on his last tantrum

I think national unity goverments usually only involve parties anyway

We've not had one since the 30s and that was at war, i think it's perhaps a concept that sounds more feasible than it actually is

 

[RedChip]

Err, do you remember the 2017 election?

Yeah, but until now, no deal was only favoured by the extremists, even among the Tories.

 

[Adisa]

 

[Adisa]

A Unity government guarantees a Norway style deal. That's palatable but pointless.
I don't think it does either party any favours. Its basically a bunch of MPs from both sides telling May and Corbyn to feck off.

 

[oates]

I don't think it does either party any favours. Its basically a bunch of MPs from both sides telling May and Corbyn to feck off.

If it only did that much and was effective in achieving that then at this point I'm all for it.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Any chance of Portillo making a comeback?

 

[UweBein]

Any chance of Portillo making a comeback?

What are you dreaming of? His time was 15 years ago or so.....
He would not stand a chance in the current Tory climate.

 

[Honest John]

yup pretty nailed on whoever wins the tory leadership will have a huge hard on for brexit

Id guess you would see a pretty wide field of:
johnson, Mogg, Ledsom, Javid, Raab, Gove, Davies..

Have a feeling if Boris can get to the final two he would win with the party membership but that through deals the rest might be able to force him out in the MP only rounds
I'd guess Pop will win... he will be able to play the loyalty card which will get him enough votes... he was seen as putting in a good performance against corbyn... he was a pretty prominent face of brexit during the referendum and perhaps most importantly the man has no real scruples as far as i can tell and will promice anybody anything to get their support on side during the MP's ballots

Probably something like
PM... Pob (Gove)
Chancellor... Mogg
Foreign sec... Davies
Home Sec... Ledsom
Brexit sec (presuming e still have one for on going negotiations)... Johnson
Defence... Fox
Trade... Raab
Health - meh just sell the NHS to america as part of a trade deal

With you on Gove. But here's the thing. Anyone that lands the job will think twice before going down in history as the PM that drove us off the cliff. It's fine and dandy to yell from the sidelines but once you're in control and the full weight of responsibility kicks in then that's when people change their standpoint. Mogg will never be PM. Neither will Davis. The only potential PM that would blindly lead us of the cliff would be Johnson - but the civil servants may even get to him too.

 

[Maticmaker]

May has already promised her backbenchers she will not lead the Tory Party at the next General Election, so her 'going' is not an issue for them, just the timing. However the Tory senior frontbenchers have a good reason to keep May 'lashed' to the PM/Party Leader role, at least until the 'shit-storm' around Brexit has died down, or is finished, its a sort of slant on " young cardinals vote for old Popes" sort of thing.

I did at one stage think May after losing a third time would revoke A50 then resign saying she had "done her best" etc.; however because its obvious now its coming down to her 'deal' (WA with some fancy dressings up), or a 'no deal' on WTO terms, and the EU have backed her in that 'play', then she is now quite brazenly forcing the MP's to chose her way or the highway (No deal). Also the EU seem to be prepared to take a massive gamble on her succeeding, rather than risk chaos in their forthcoming elections if the UK is required to send back MEP's.

In one sense May is 'fire proof' because her political career is finished , whatever happens, no politician can come back from this debacle. So Theresa can, if she wishes, adopt a kamikaze approach; the only barrier is her own party. The Tory party is renowned for 'circling the waggons' when necessary, May might be allowed to cause havoc in the country, but she will not be allowed to destroy the Party. So whatever happens the Tories will put themselves in a position to bounce back and despite all JC's posturing/positioning of his party, trying to steer a middle course (and he's not done too bad at that) the propensity of Labour to 'shoot its self in the foot' is growing by the hour as the 29th March approaches. It now depends on how 'hard' the hard liners, both leave and remain are and stay in their fox holes.

 

[Sassy Colin]

What are you dreaming of? His time was 15 years ago or so.....
He would not stand a chance in the current Tory climate.

We'd get some nice train journeys out of it?

 

[sun_tzu]

With you on Gove. But here's the thing. Anyone that lands the job will think twice before going down in history as the PM that drove us off the cliff. It's fine and dandy to yell from the sidelines but once you're in control and the full weight of responsibility kicks in then that's when people change their standpoint. Mogg will never be PM. Neither will Davis. The only potential PM that would blindly lead us of the cliff would be Johnson - but the civil servants may even get to him too.

I think as long as pob gets power he genuinely wont care... plus im sure by then he will have lamed it all on may gashing up negotiations

 

[sun_tzu]

What are you dreaming of? His time was 15 years ago or so.....
He would not stand a chance in the current Tory climate.

he would be quite moderate by their standards today I think whilst at the time he was seen as very right wing...
Both main parties have moved so far that honestly i do think there is a massive space in the center with a lot of votes waiting for somebody credible

 

[711]

We'd get some nice train journeys out of it?

Mrs 711 absolutely loves Portillo's railway stuff.

When he was younger he was a Tory of the nastier kind, he's still a Tory but he's mellowed quite a bit, I'm not sure where he'd fit in with today's party, except being with the Brexiters of course.

 

[Maticmaker]

With you on Gove. But here's the thing. Anyone that lands the job will think twice before going down in history as the PM that drove us off the cliff. It's fine and dandy to yell from the sidelines but once you're in control and the full weight of responsibility kicks in then that's when people change their standpoint. Mogg will never be PM. Neither will Davis. The only potential PM that would blindly lead us of the cliff would be Johnson - but the civil servants may even get to him too.

If there is any driving off the cliff to be done it will be Theresa that does it, with all the rest of the Tory party no where near, not even standing on the cliff to watch her go, political suicide is very much a singular event. The new PM will ride to the rescue, probably on a white horse (NB. not a unicorn!)

 

[golden_blunder]

That problems easily solved.

Unless you’re a complete romantacist, nothing about Ireland is easily solved

 

[Reiver]

Mrs 711 absolutely loves Portillo's railway stuff.

When he was younger he was a Tory of the nastier kind, he's still a Tory but he's mellowed quite a bit, I'm not sure where he'd fit in with today's party, except being with the Brexiters of course.

Think you're right. I always think of him as a Thatcherite which, by today's standards in the Tory Party, would probably make him a moderate? Which just shows how far to the Right British politics has swung. He's absolutely a Brexiter.

 

[Smores]

Are there any remaining Tory voters on here? I'd be intrigued as to why the hell you'd vote for any of the new intake after all this?

Between this and the last GE exactly what the Tory party is and what its for seems a fecking mystery....low taxes i guess.

 

[sun_tzu]

Poll? (mods)

Most likely outcome:

• Mays Deal Passed
• No Deal
• Long Extension (for GE)
• Long Extension (for Referendum)
• Long Extension (for re-negotiations with current government)

Not sure I think there any other real possibilities and I think probably Long Extension for a GE - then a hung parliament and no real answers anyway

 

[sun_tzu]

Are there any remaining Tory voters on here? I'd be intrigued as to why the hell you'd vote for any of the new intake after all this?

Between this and the last GE exactly what the Tory party is and what its for seems a fecking mystery....low taxes i guess.

I suspect simply by being Not Corbyn they will perform well in the next election
And i truth with a FPTP system and a menifesto that was a hard enough brexit to keep ERG members on side I suspect they would be able to get something like a 45%-50% share of the vote (basocallhy they would be the only real leave option - unless the "brexit" party becomes a propper thing) and with that share and the remaing votes split lab, libs, greens, TIG, SNP etc they will probably be the biggest party and may even get a majority

 

[711]

Poll? (mods)

Most likely outcome:

• Mays Deal Passed
• No Deal
• Long Extension (for GE)
• Long Extension (for Referendum)
• Long Extension (for re-negotiations with current government)

Not sure I think there any other real possibilities and I think probably Long Extension for a GE - then a hung parliament and no real answers anyway

Yeah, I would have gone for Deal Passed, but the extension possibilities might have scuppered that. I'd go for a Long Extension but could be either for a GE or a Referendum.

Bad news for Corbyn, how long can he continue to disguise his position before even his own supporters cotton on?

 

[Adisa]

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[horsechoker]

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[sun_tzu]

Yeah, I would have gone for Deal Passed, but the extension possibilities might have scuppered that. I'd go for a Long Extension but could be either for a GE or a Referendum.

Bad news for Corbyn, how long can he continue to disguise his position before even his own supporters cotton on?

Likewise I think if it was mays deal and only 1 extension date that couldnt be amended she might have got it through... the EU really did do an impressive job of fecking that up for her whilst putting it over in a pretty friendly way... as it stands i think her deal goes down and immediately she calls a GE (if its conservative policy they easily get 2/3rd parliament) as it does not give her party time to boot her and as you say Corbyn will have to release a manifesto with a brexit policy (eg will they back a 2nd referendum) and that will cause a lot of problems for labour i think... equally if her deal goes down in flames again she can switch to "managed no deal" as the official conservative policy (again not without problems for conservative unity)

 

[sun_tzu]

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is this the meeting Corbyn flounced out of?

 

[Abizzz]

May said about 3/4 times she didn't want to take part in the European elections when she just spoke, and she made is explicitly clear we're definitely still leaving.

That only leaves her deal or no deal. And we all know her deal will be shot down so...

Just a couple of things May has made absolutely clear in the past:
-UK will leave on 29th of March
-There will be no election
-She has complete trust in foreign secretary Boris Johnson
-Her leadership is strong and stable


At some point having her say something on a topic looses all meaning. She is not in control of brexit, she's lost every "fight" she picked. There will be no deal if the sane MP's are less than half and can't get their act together (which sadly seems likely), not because one of her silly promises would be broken.

 

[SteveJ]

The prime minister’s spokesman said:

"The consideration is to hold it (the vote) when we believe we have a realistic prospect of success. My understanding of last night is that the extension to May 22 was contingent on winning the vote next week."

 

[Sassy Colin]

Are there any remaining Tory voters on here? I'd be intrigued as to why the hell you'd vote for any of the new intake after all this?

Between this and the last GE exactly what the Tory party is and what its for seems a fecking mystery....low taxes i guess.

As has always been with General Elections, it always boils down to the lesser of 2 evils. The prospect of Corbyn is so abhorrent to many of the voting public, that the Conservatives become the default choice. Of course, if an election was called, Corbyn would get his happy clappy fan club out again and the Tories would spend the whole campaign banging on about some shit (strong and stable at the last one, for example ) and criticising Corbyn instead of telling people what they can actually offer.

From a personal view point, May is my MP but I would never vote for her again in my constituency. The majority is so large that it they would have to be an enormous swing for Labour to get in, so thankfully, would never happen, and you always get loads of nutters standing so I can still vote for Monster Raving Loony instead.

 

[SteveJ]

I can still vote for Monster Raving Loony instead.

You already did.

 

[Eire Red United]

United Ireland?

Yessir.