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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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4bars

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The UK is FAR from blameless. Incompetence is the word which best describes the UK parliament(s).
Is not only that is FAR form blameless. Is the main culprit of the situation by FAR and you seem to say that is the EU
 
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BobbyManc

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That depends on how many the Tory Rebels are. And the number of rebels will depend upon what is offered. And regardless of what Swinson does, she only has 14 MPs, Corbyn will need the SNP and some Tory rebels anyway. Otherwise there's no temp govt, GE doesn't happen and Boris stays on until the Queen sacks him even if he loses the no confidence. And the Queen won't sack him.

Those Tory rebels are obviously not very keen to put Corbyn at #10. And some would probably feel that by going to the polls while they are openly rebelling against their own party, they might be at high risk of deselection. Whereas more Tory MPs could probably support an interim government under Clarke that goes for a referendum first, implements the result, and then goes for a GE after.

Corbyn's main agenda anyway is social reform and Brexit gets in the way of this, particularly as it's a divisive issue within his own electorate more so than others'. His lukewarm stance, trying to appease both, is driving him and Labour down in the polls. Going into a GE with Brexit democratically "sorted" should be a reprieve for him. But I fear he prefers the crash and burn of no-deal because a) he's a brexiteer and b) he feels that Tories and Lib Dems would suffer in a post-no deal GE more than himself is suffering at the moment.

He probably feels he could recapture a lot of the current swing towards the Lib Dems due to Brexit becoming the dominant issue. Once that's done and Lib Dems have failed at their mission statement, why vote for them? But obviously his attempt at social reform would be doomed if Britain is suffering from post-no deal, harsh recession. He must know this. So I have to wonder if his personal ambition to become PM is overriding his morals, as has happened with BoJo.
I'm not at all convinced by this. I think the vast majority of Tories would find it much easier to accept a GE than back a second referendum. That's why I see a compromise involving a figure like Clarke leading a temporary government that agrees upon a GE as the most likely way out. There's a reason the bookies have a referendum as preceding an election at about 6/1, and a general election heavily odds on. I mean Clarke himself hasn't even come out in favour of another referendum, has he? He doesn't seem to want to entertain the idea. You'd have to support Remain to favour a second referendum, whereas you don't to accept the need for a GE, hence that's more likely to win the backing of some Tories.

I don't agree that Corbyn is playing for a No Deal, either. In fact I think he'd be aware that he would be held as accountable for it as anyone else is, the media and the other politicians would make sure of that. He's obviously going to try and gain as much political capital from the situation as he can right now, but to actually work towards No Deal? I don't think he could survive that. He'd suffer as much as anyone else, and the most likely result I'd suspect would that he would be ousted as Labour leader. I'm a supporter but he certainly would lose my backing if I believed that he favoured No Deal and he rejected viable compromises to prevent it.
 

BobbyManc

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Dont rules say the leader of the opposition has to take charge of a temp govt in these circumstances? So forget compromise and ken clarke
I'm not sure there are any rules for situations like this actually, it's only based on a precedent basically that the leader of the opposition does so for obvious reasons. As far as I'm aware it can be anybody so long as they can demonstrate that they can command a majority in the HoC.
 

711

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I'm not sure there are any rules for situations like this actually, it's only based on a precedent basically that the leader of the opposition does so for obvious reasons. As far as I'm aware it can be anybody so long as they can demonstrate that they can command a majority in the HoC.
Which 'rules' Corbyn out for a start. :)
 

sun_tzu

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Dont rules say the leader of the opposition has to take charge of a temp govt in these circumstances? So forget compromise and ken clarke
No it says an MP who can command a majority in the house

Also I think people need to realise that to pass the legistlation for a referendum, get the question format and wording approved plus have the proper run in period is at least 6 months ... Assuming no legal challenge to the question (suspect there will be) then organise another ge will be probably a year or so the temp government is in charge... Probably with a small majority and probably with multiple confidence challenges and brexit MP's trying every parliamentary trick to take control again... It will be messy

But any mp who could command a majority .. so not Corbyn I'd say
 

sun_tzu

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Timeline?

Aug 21-24... Bang on about removing backstop
Aug 24-27... G7 summit ... Showpiece row with merkle and macron whilst getting trump to make some vague promice of a quick trade deal
Aug 28-30... Whip up EU hatred... Talk about no deal now being almost certain and blame EU... Talk about remoaner parliament blocking no deal
Aug 31 / SEP 1... give farrage a backhander to step the brexit party down and hit the media all weekend about remoners and the EU trying to trap us
Sep 2... Big Boris speach announcing that the first thing in parliament will be a vote on a ge so the country can stick 2 fingers up to the EU and remoaners (plus stops Corbyn calling for a confidence motion on 3rd)

Gut feel call the election on 30th October ... That way it's basically leave Vs remain and makes any hung parliament negotiations between remain parties virtually impossible by 31st

Gut feel I have then is

Labour refuses to join the remain alliance
Brexit party stands down if conservatives deselect a hit list of remoaners
Conservatives win majority
Labour secure less seats than remain alliance

Does that sound about right to anybody else
 

Oldyella

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The perfect example of a vast majority of Brexiteerr aka Scapegoaters.
Was he even challenged on this in longer clips? Media love the clicks this attitude generates but have to see by not doing so they are seriously complicit? If all the bullshit and bluster was challenged years ago and called out we might be in a different place
 

CassiusClaymore

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Was he even challenged on this in longer clips? Media love the clicks this attitude generates but have to see by not doing so they are seriously complicit? If all the bullshit and bluster was challenged years ago and called out we might be in a different place
You can't challenge these people. Even if you use facts and common sense the standard response will be "well that's just my opinion and i'm entitled to it." Idiocracy is here for the foreseeable.
 

Oldyella

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You can't challenge these people. Even if you use facts and common sense the standard response will be "well that's just my opinion and i'm entitled to it." Idiocracy is here for the foreseeable.
More than likely. If people had been challenged and told when they were factually incorrect from the start though it may have been different. People are welcome to their opinion but when its wrong they should be told.
 

Abizzz

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Who cares who Trump blames? Being blamed by Trump is fast becoming a badge of honor.
 

Maticmaker

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I didn't say he could... I said that he would say any problems from hard brexit are the EU's fault in responce to the comment that everybody would blame the uk
In the event of a no deal outcome, then the 'blame game' may just wither, its like after a penalty shoot out blaming the guy who missed the vital penalty, it doesn't change the outcome, just leaves the person who missed with massive regrets. That's why both sides are sticking to their guns until the final scene, no one wants to be the guy walking back to the centre having missed the vital pen.

With the last couple of months of extra time running out and the EU saying any deal can only be done if it includes the backstop and the UK saying any deal that might be done cannot include the backstop, then it certainly looks like its going to penalties, probably sudden death!
 

sglowrider

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You can't challenge these people. Even if you use facts and common sense the standard response will be "well that's just my opinion and i'm entitled to it." Idiocracy is here for the foreseeable.
This.

If questioned, I am sure the fool will just repeat the same old debunked lines but only louder.
 

JPRouve

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I'm dying here. :lol:
I thought that it was way too stupid to deserve a comment but I do wonder how he came to that conclusion. He is supposed to be a football expert, one of the hundreds of people at the top of the game worldwide.
 

Fully Fledged

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I'm dying here. :lol:
That's what Brexit was for? So let me get this straight Brexit was to get us out of EUFA not the EU. Okay then.

I think that he read the stories saying that we were getting out of the EU for FA(nothing) and got confused.
 

BobbyManc

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I actually liked Ian Holloway.... bloody hell... his parents should have used a condom
I read his autobiography years ago and ended up disliking him after it which is quite a remarkable achievement. The main thing I remembered was every time he failed at a club there was always something or someone else to blame but himself.
 

JPRouve

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I read his autobiography years ago and ended up disliking him after it which is quite a remarkable achievement. The main thing I remembered was every time he failed at a club there was always something or someone else to blame but himself.
"Nothing wrong with my book. The bertie probably can't read.
 

sun_tzu

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do they have the votes for a no confidence vote?
would be close i think - but im sure plenty of those same people wouldnt then back corbyn
he really should have backed the libs no confidence motion before parliament broke up as all that has happened is the clock has run down making a default no deal brexit much more likely - it almost like it was planned:smirk:
 

JPRouve

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I realize that I don't know what is the position of Labour and Lib Dems concerning the withdrawal agreement.
 

BobbyManc

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do they have the votes for a no confidence vote?
would be close i think - but im sure plenty of those same people wouldnt then back corbyn
he really should have backed the libs no confidence motion before parliament broke up as all that has happened is the clock has run down making a default no deal brexit much more likely - it almost like it was planned:smirk:
That would have literally made no difference. It was never going to pass. The Lib Dems knew that and it was purely a tactic to get one over on Labour.
 

Rams

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So, Merkel gives BoJo 30 days to come up with a detailed, workable and acceptable alternative to the back stop. They have spent the past 2 years trying to come up with a solution so I won’t hold my breathe. Let’s hope I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
 

sun_tzu

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That would have literally made no difference. It was never going to pass. The Lib Dems knew that and it was purely a tactic to get one over on Labour.
If labour could get all its MP's to vote for it and all the other parties would have they would have needed 2 conservatives
pretty much the same maths as now
Boris has done noting unexpected - anybody who was prepared to vote against him now probably was then as well
Corbyn has a hard on for brexit - its fair enough i he should just be honest about it - you know straight talking politics and all that
 

BobbyManc

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If labour could get all its MP's to vote for it and all the other parties would have they would have needed 2 conservatives
pretty much the same maths as now
Boris has done noting unexpected - anybody who was prepared to vote against him now probably was then as well
Corbyn has a hard on for brexit - its fair enough i he should just be honest about it - you know straight talking politics and all that
'If' these things which were not possible at the time didn't exist then Corbyn could have passed a motion of no confidence. Right. Got ya. You know full well it would not have passed. It's funny how Corbyn's critics love deriding him as incompetent and an awful leader etc but seem to also believe that he's some kind of political mastermind with a magic wand that could stop Brexit at any moment. Make your mind up, please.
 

DOTA

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Gut feel I have then is

Labour refuses to join the remain alliance
Brexit party stands down if conservatives deselect a hit list of remoaners
Conservatives win majority
Labour secure less seats than remain alliance

Does that sound about right to anybody else
Farage to decide he fancies being king and to take on the Tories on a platform of ceasing all trade with countries that don't speak English as a first language.

Brexit Party eats the Tories but falls short of a majority.

Lib Dems agree to coalition including all Brexit Party's platform in exchange for referendum on STV and Pizza Express vouchers for each of their MP's.
 

Smores

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I wonder if we'll see a postponement of the VONC with Merkels perhaps ill advised 30 day challenge.

I feel like remainers will fall into the trap of sticking to that deadline before they challenge him whilst Boris will love the delay.

On the other hand at least it sets a deadline that seems fair so on the fence Tories can then say they gave him time.