Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[711]

Timeline?

Aug 21-24... Bang on about removing backstop
Aug 24-27... G7 summit ... Showpiece row with merkle and macron whilst getting trump to make some vague promice of a quick trade deal
Aug 28-30... Whip up EU hatred... Talk about no deal now being almost certain and blame EU... Talk about remoaner parliament blocking no deal
Aug 31 / SEP 1... give farrage a backhander to step the brexit party down and hit the media all weekend about remoners and the EU trying to trap us
Sep 2... Big Boris speach announcing that the first thing in parliament will be a vote on a ge so the country can stick 2 fingers up to the EU and remoaners (plus stops Corbyn calling for a confidence motion on 3rd)

Gut feel call the election on 30th October ... That way it's basically leave Vs remain and makes any hung parliament negotiations between remain parties virtually impossible by 31st

Gut feel I have then is

Labour refuses to join the remain alliance
Brexit party stands down if conservatives deselect a hit list of remoaners
Conservatives win majority
Labour secure less seats than remain alliance

Does that sound about right to anybody else

I'm not sure how quickly the Tory rules allow them to deselect a load of their candidates, against legal challenges too no doubt. I suppose the Brexit party could create a hit list of their own and stand just against them however.

 

[Rams]

It would be completely crazy now to call an election before the 31st of Oct, parliament needs to put all its energy in sorting Brexit out. The last thing that’s needed right now is a general election.

 

[Red Dreams]

It would be completely crazy now to call an election before the 31st of Oct, parliament needs to put all its energy in sorting Brexit out. The last thing that’s needed right now is a general election.

Good distraction though.

Tories can blame Corbyn for something or rather.

 

[Infra-red]

So, Merkel gives BoJo 30 days to come up with a detailed, workable and acceptable alternative to the back stop. They have spent the past 2 years trying to come up with a solution so I won’t hold my breathe. Let’s hope I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

General Election in the autumn, kick out the DUP, agree a WA with alternative arrangements around the backstop - a border in the Irish Sea instead.

The EU floated this idea in February last year and would surely agree to it now.

 

[sun_tzu]

The EU floated this idea in February last year and would surely agree to it now.

I believe this was actually their preference...

May said it was unacceptable to split the uk and sent David Davies to negotiate the uk wide backstop

 

[Infra-red]

I believe this was actually their preference...

May said it was unacceptable to split the uk and sent David Davies to negotiate the uk wide backstop

Her hands were tied on account of the DUP and Parliamentary arithmetic. Johnson will be looking to sort that out asap with a General Election. We will surely get one this autumn.

When polled, 59% of The Conservative Party membership said they'd happily allow N. Ireland to leave the UK entirely, if it meant getting Brexit through. A border in the Irish Sea might no longer be an issue if the DUP cease to have influence.

https://www.businessinsider.com/pol...-break-up-uk-destroy-party-stop-brexit-2019-6

 

[Fluctuation0161]

'If' these things which were not possible at the time didn't exist then Corbyn could have passed a motion of no confidence. Right. Got ya. You know full well it would not have passed. It's funny how Corbyn's critics love deriding him as incompetent and an awful leader etc but seem to also believe that he's some kind of political mastermind with a magic wand that could stop Brexit at any moment. Make your mind up, please.

Exactly this.

 

[Rams]

General Election in the autumn, kick out the DUP, agree a WA with alternative arrangements around the backstop - a border in the Irish Sea instead.

The EU floated this idea in February last year and would surely agree to it now.

A hard border between NI and the U.K. instead?!

Actually, Ireland should be united anyway. In fact let’s get rid of countries altogether. Nothing good has ever come from nationalism.

 

[sullydnl]

A hard border between NI and the U.K. instead?!

Actually, Ireland should be united anyway. In fact let’s get rid of countries altogether. Nothing good has ever come from nationalism.

Nah, there wouldn't be a hard border. After all, the UK have all those wonderful technological solutions they just happen to not want to tell anyone about right now.

 

[Rams]

We’re the electorate told that the U.K. would break up if they left the EU during the referendum campaign?

 

[Sir Matt]

We’re the electorate told that the U.K. would break up if they left the EU during the referendum campaign?

Why would the Brexiters want to complicate such a simple question with details like political and economic consequences?

 

[Rams]

So basically electorate was lied to. Shouldn’t that be enough reason on it’s own to hold a new referendum?

 

[Infra-red]

We’re the electorate told that the U.K. would break up if they left the EU during the referendum campaign?

We were repeatedly warned by commentators and the Remain campaign that the Irish border would be a significant issue that would likely prove extremely difficult to overcome. I recall Tony Blair, for example, spelling this out ad nauseum in TV interviews. Nobody can say they didn't know what they were voting for in this respect.

A united Ireland and an Independent Scotland will probably, ultimately, be byproducts of this ludicrous, Tory project. The Conservative and Unionist Party...

 

[Mockney]

We’re the electorate told that the U.K. would break up if they left the EU during the referendum campaign?

By one side - Yes. By one side - No.

 

[Stanley Road]

Was anyone warned of the consequences of voting for Call Me Dave?

 

[Rams]

We were repeatedly warned by commentators and the Remain campaign that the Irish border would be a significant issue that would likely prove extremely difficult to overcome. I recall Tony Blair, for example, spelling this out ad nauseum in TV interviews. Nobody can say they didn't know what they were voting for in this respect.

A united Ireland and an Independent Scotland will probably, ultimately, be byproducts of this ludicrous, Tory project. The Conservative and Unionist Party...

Oh the irony. Poetic justice.

 

[0le]

We were repeatedly warned by commentators and the Remain campaign that the Irish border would be a significant issue that would likely prove extremely difficult to overcome. I recall Tony Blair, for example, spelling this out ad nauseum in TV interviews. Nobody can say they didn't know what they were voting for in this respect.

A united Ireland and an Independent Scotland will probably, ultimately, be byproducts of this ludicrous, Tory project. The Conservative and Unionist Party...

I don't think we will ever see a "United Ireland", but yeah, I think an independent Scotland could happen.

 

[Berbasbullet]

We were repeatedly warned by commentators and the Remain campaign that the Irish border would be a significant issue that would likely prove extremely difficult to overcome. I recall Tony Blair, for example, spelling this out ad nauseum in TV interviews. Nobody can say they didn't know what they were voting for in this respect.

A united Ireland and an Independent Scotland will probably, ultimately, be byproducts of this ludicrous, Tory project. The Conservative and Unionist Party...

Yes and everyone dismissed these arguments as project fear.

I don’t think anyone can genuinely turn around and say they voted for brexit believing the remain campaign and just wanting to spite them, when the leave campaign was promising to have their cake and eat it and calling the other side a liar.

 

[balaks]

I don't think we will ever see a "United Ireland", but yeah, I think an independent Scotland could happen.

A United Ireland is undoubtably much, much closer to reality now than anytime in my lifetime - this is 100% as a direct result of this Brexit mess. If a no-deal Brexit really does happen then a United Ireland is very likely to happen in the next 10-15 years.

 

[Fully Fledged]

During the leadership campaign BoJo was claiming the atmosphere had change within EU and that the EU was willing to negotiate the Irish backstop. Now BoJo is claiming that the EU is unwilling to renegotiate because of Tory remainers trying to stop a hard Brexit. Further, BoJo accuses the EU of playing hardball. This from the man threatening not to pay the 36billion divorce bill as part of his negotiation tactics.
BoJo is a bullshitter who’s completely out of his dept.

We know.

 

[balaks]

We were repeatedly warned by commentators and the Remain campaign that the Irish border would be a significant issue that would likely prove extremely difficult to overcome. I recall Tony Blair, for example, spelling this out ad nauseum in TV interviews. Nobody can say they didn't know what they were voting for in this respect.

A united Ireland and an Independent Scotland will probably, ultimately, be byproducts of this ludicrous, Tory project. The Conservative and Unionist Party...

To be fair I don't think this is true - I obviously paid particular attention to the border issue prior to the Brexit vote and I can't remember Northern Ireland being mentioned at all by anybody (Blair might have mentioned it but I dont think anybody else did) - the fact is that sadly very few English politicians (or English people for that matter) gave Ireland or Northern Ireland much of a thought at all or if they did they did in complete ignorance of the issues.

 

[Massive Spanner]

A United Ireland is undoubtably much, much closer to reality now than anytime in my lifetime - this is 100% as a direct result of this Brexit mess. If a no-deal Brexit really does happen then a United Ireland is very likely to happen in the next 10-15 years.

if you think brexit is a mess, wait til you see what that's like. I doubt it'll even be entertained for a long, long time.

 

[balaks]

if you think brexit is a mess, wait til you see what that's like. I doubt it'll even be entertained for a long, long time.

I don't doubt that but I think there is likely to be a border poll which will be successful within that time-frame then there will be possibly decades of a transition period before it is formally a United Ireland - but I think that the vote will go through within 10-15 years. Hope that makes sense.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I don't doubt that but I think there is likely to be a border poll which will be successful within that time-frame then there will be possibly decades of a transition period before it is formally a United Ireland - but I think that the vote will go through within 10-15 years. Hope that makes sense.

the UK would need to agree to continue to support and subsidize NI for decades until they become self sustainable and non reliant on them, a big ask of the UK who will likely be in the shitter themselves. Ireland wouldn't be able to flat out absorb NI, we can't deal with the financial burden you'd place on us.

I think NI would need to become a self sustaining independent state (in the EU) before a United Ireland would be feasible, basically.

 

[balaks]

the UK would need to agree to continue to support and subsidize NI for decades until they become self sustainable and non reliant on them, a big ask of the UK who will likely be in the shitter themselves. Ireland wouldn't be able to flat out absorb NI, we can't deal with the financial burden you'd place on us.

I think NI would need to become a self sustaining independent state (in the EU) before a United Ireland would be feasible, basically.

That is impossible though - NI simply is not big enough and doesnt have the necessary infrastructure (physically, economically, socially) to become an independent state.

The UK would have to continue to support NI with some sort of transition with Ireland as you say which would likely be for decades. UK would not have a choice in this by the way as it is set within the Good Friday Agreement that states that it “will be a binding obligation on both governments to introduce and support in their respective parliaments legislation to give effect to that wish' should a border poll suceed.

 

[Infra-red]

To be fair I don't think this is true - I obviously paid particular attention to the border issue prior to the Brexit vote and I can't remember Northern Ireland being mentioned at all by anybody (Blair might have mentioned it but I dont think anybody else did) - the fact is that sadly very few English politicians (or English people for that matter) gave Ireland or Northern Ireland much of a thought at all or if they did they did in complete ignorance of the issues.

It's certainly true to say that the Remain Campaign focused primarily on convincing swing voters of a narrow proposition: that leaving the EU was too economically risky (this was the same approach that had been adopted successfully in the 2014 Scottish Referendum and 2015 UK General Election and was, in fairness, a rational response to the polling data at the time).

However, I don't believe the Irish issue was neglected quite as much as you suggest (perhaps I'm simply misremembering here). A quick news search returns Theresa May asserting the inevitability of Irish border controls in the event of a Leave vote and Former Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Mandelson warning of "renewed sectarianism", risking jobs and the entire NI peace process.

I am sure that you probably do recall the joint press conference between Tony Blair and John Major in Derry, which definitely achieved widespread media coverage for its symbolic significance. During it, Major warned, "the plain, uncomfortable truth is that the unity of the UK itself is on the ballot paper in two weeks’ time."

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nd-john-major-brexit-would-close-irish-border

These issues should have been given much more prominence than they were, of course, but anyone who claims they genuinely had no idea that the Irish border would be a huge problem if we voted Leave, simply wasn't paying attention.

 

[balaks]

It's certainly true to say that the Remain Campaign focused primarily on convincing swing voters of a narrow proposition: that leaving the EU was too economically risky (this was the same approach that had been adopted successfully in the 2014 Scottish Referendum and 2015 UK General Election and was, in fairness, a rational response to the polling data at the time).

However, I don't believe the Irish issue was neglected quite as much as you suggest (perhaps I'm simply misremembering here). A quick news search returns Theresa May asserting the inevitability of Irish border controls in the event of a Leave vote and Former Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Mandelson warning of "renewed sectarianism", risking jobs and the entire NI peace process.

I am sure that you probably do recall the joint press conference between Tony Blair and John Major in Derry, which definitely achieved widespread media coverage for its symbolic significance. During it, Major warned, "the plain, uncomfortable truth is that the unity of the UK itself is on the ballot paper in two weeks’ time."

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nd-john-major-brexit-would-close-irish-border

These issues should have been given much more prominence than they were, of course, but anyone who claims they genuinely had no idea that the Irish border would be a huge problem if we voted Leave, simply wasn't paying attention.

Well thats good to see that it perhaps wasn't as neglected as I'd thought - although this does make the vote to leave even more depressing.

 

[WensleyMU]

Remain didn't convince anyone, of anything. It was a textbook example of how not to campaign, the official and other variations of the remain vote.

They focussed entirely on negatives and none of the positive reasons we should remain in the EU.

The public, in record breaking numbers dismissed their campaign.

Since the result they've got even worse. Learned nothing from their mistakes and decided an aggressive hate filled mantra is sure to swing public opinion. It hasn't, at all.

So no, remain didn't convince anyone of anything. In reality they turned people away from their POV and continue to do so, to this day.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Remain didn't convince anyone, of anything. It was a textbook example of how not to campaign, the official and other variations of the remain vote.

They focussed entirely on negatives and none of the positive reasons we should remain in the EU.

The public, in record breaking numbers dismissed their campaign.

Since the result they've got even worse. Learned nothing from their mistakes and decided an aggressive hate filled mantra is sure to swing public opinion. It hasn't, at all.

So no, remain didn't convince anyone of anything. In reality they turned people away from their POV and continue to do so, to this day.

The Remain campaign was poor but they did point out the positives.

However, I don't remember any positives that the Leave campaign pointed out and l have no idea what vision Leave have of the future after Brexit.

 

[Infra-red]

Well thats good to see that it perhaps wasn't as neglected as I'd thought - although this does make the vote to leave even more depressing.

Agreed.

 

[Jippy]

The Remain campaign was poor but they did point out the positives.

However, I don't remember any positives that the Leave campaign pointed out and l have no idea what vision Leave have of the future after Brexit.

We can legally deplete all of our fuel reserves by a half when we shake off that EU yoke, according to widespread reports yesterday/today.

 

[WensleyMU]

The Remain campaign was poor but they did point out the positives.

However, I don't remember any positives that the Leave campaign pointed out and l have no idea what vision Leave have of the future after Brexit.

No, they didn't. Their entire campaign was about negatives. You do not campaign about a negative. Ask the May government who's negative campaign against Corbyn gave that useless fool a far better result than anyone could have predicted.

The Leave campaign focussed on what the UK could do outside of the EU. Emphasised control of our destiny. Whether or not this was achievable or practical was besides the point, more so because they were not the government in charge (who were aligned with remain) and therefore were not in a position to implement any of their claims, anyway. They relied on the UK government.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Remain didn't convince anyone, of anything. It was a textbook example of how not to campaign, the official and other variations of the remain vote.

They focussed entirely on negatives and none of the positive reasons we should remain in the EU.

The public, in record breaking numbers dismissed their campaign.

Since the result they've got even worse. Learned nothing from their mistakes and decided an aggressive hate filled mantra is sure to swing public opinion. It hasn't, at all.

So no, remain didn't convince anyone of anything. In reality they turned people away from their POV and continue to do so, to this day.

Eh?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

No, they didn't. Their entire campaign was about negatives. You do not campaign about a negative. Ask the May government who's negative campaign against Corbyn gave that useless fool a far better result than anyone could have predicted.

The Leave campaign focussed on what the UK could do outside of the EU. Emphasised control of our destiny. Whether or not this was achievable or practical was besides the point, more so because they were not the government in charge (who were aligned with remain) and therefore were not in a position to implement any of their claims, anyway. They relied on the UK government.

Anyone can talk rubbish and tell lies which was all the Leave campaign was about which you've readily admitted above. People believed what they wanted to believe and if they were daft enough to believe the Leave campaign then they are going to suffer the consequences thereafter.
May made some catastrophic errors and remain didnt emphasise the positives enough and furthermore the benefits of the EU have never, since the very beginning, been promoted in the UK because the governments of all colours have used it as a scapegoat for their failures (which doesn't mean that the EU is perfect either).

 

[thebelfastboy]

That is impossible though - NI simply is not big enough and doesnt have the necessary infrastructure (physically, economically, socially) to become an independent state.

The UK would have to continue to support NI with some sort of transition with Ireland as you say which would likely be for decades. UK would not have a choice in this by the way as it is set within the Good Friday Agreement that states that it “will be a binding obligation on both governments to introduce and support in their respective parliaments legislation to give effect to that wish' should a border poll suceed.

I agree with most of what your saying re brexit and border poll etc.
However if/when it comes to agreeing the financial assistance required to make a new Ireland work, don't forget that the EU and possibly America would make massive amounts of funding available. The burden wouldn't just sit with the UK or Irish governments.
I actually think it's pretty inevitable it will happen now....

 

[Maticmaker]

... l have no idea what vision Leave have of the future after Brexit.

I don't think anyone did. Brexit meant different things to different people, above all it meant change to most people, whether you call these the left behind, the stupid, the gormless, patriots, racists, whatever there was a chance to change things which 17.4 m voted for. Brexit its clear, especially if a hard Brexit, will become a catalyst for political change not just in the UK but also in the EU. Some will see Brexit as an idea whose time as come, others as a self induced injury/mistake, the fact remains (forgive the pun) there is no going back now. There will be hiccups in the economies of both the UK and the EU, but these will heal overtime, probably fairly quickly, but as usual with such changes there will be winners and losers.

Brexit is essentially about (and always had) the potential for Political change; Boris perhaps more than most recognised this and chose the right side. Boris is probably hoping for some change in the Irish position on the back-stop which will convince the EU to make some concession that he can get through the HoP; he may even suggest that if they play ball then in the next five years he will get the DUP to agree to an United Ireland vote (assuming he's still in power!) or at least a vote on a potential Confederation of Irish States within an All Ireland remit, with the UK backing the proposal with some of the £39B, if it eventually becomes no deal ,or if some sort of backstop is required.

Boris may also try to push the SNP to press the self destruct button and go for a 2nd Indy ref, but on the wrong basis, lose for a second time and kill independence stone dead, this time for more than a generation. Or, having been successful in an independence vote the SNP realises the loss of Faslane, the change in currency and the withdrawal of many English businesses, will off set any gain of Scotland remaining in the EU (if it was able to do so).

If there is no last minute deal Boris's last card is to offer a GE on the eve of Brexit, even if he survives a no confidence vote.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Question and answer session with Johnson and Macron

Q: What is the alternative to the backstop?

Johnson says the reporter should read “an excellent paper” produced by Greg Hands and other MPs proposing alternatives. (That is a reference to the Alternative Arrangements Commission report.)

Johnson ends by saying: “Where there’s a will, there’s a way.”

I actually skimmed through it yesterday.
Starts off FOREWARD - good start

The Irish must not join Schengen, The French must do this and that and the UK must protect it's own Internal Market are a few snippets.

Who the hell wrote this rubbish I thought - at the end names I came across such names as Davis, JRM, McVey and the usual suspects - what a surprise!

 

[sun_tzu]

I don't think anyone did. Brexit meant different things to different people, above all it meant change to most people, whether you call these the left behind, the stupid, the gormless, patriots, racists, whatever there was a chance to change things which 17.4 m voted for. Brexit its clear, especially if a hard Brexit, will become a catalyst for political change not just in the UK but also in the EU. Some will see Brexit as an idea whose time as come, others as a self induced injury/mistake, the fact remains (forgive the pun) there is no going back now. There will be hiccups in the economies of both the UK and the EU, but these will heal overtime, probably fairly quickly, but as usual with such changes there will be winners and losers.

Brexit is essentially about (and always had) the potential for Political change; Boris perhaps more than most recognised this and chose the right side. Boris is probably hoping for some change in the Irish position on the back-stop which will convince the EU to make some concession that he can get through the HoP; he may even suggest that if they play ball then in the next five years he will get the DUP to agree to an United Ireland vote (assuming he's still in power!) or at least a vote on a potential Confederation of Irish States within an All Ireland remit, with the UK backing the proposal with some of the £39B, if it eventually becomes no deal ,or if some sort of backstop is required.

Boris may also try to push the SNP to press the self destruct button and go for a 2nd Indy ref, but on the wrong basis, lose for a second time and kill independence stone dead, this time for more than a generation. Or, having been successful in an independence vote the SNP realises the loss of Fastlane, the change in currency and the withdrawal of many English businesses, will off set any gain of Scotland remaining in the EU (if it was able to do so).

If there is no last minute deal Boris's last card is to offer a GE on the eve of Brexit, even if he survives a no confidence vote.

not sure about that - really cant see the DUP voting for it under any circumstances
I do wonder how the SNP would vote if he said put through brexit and you can have indy ref 2 and the UK government will remain neutral in the campaign ... would they go for that?

 

[Edgar Allan Pillow]

However, I don't remember any positives that the Leave campaign pointed out

It was there in the big red bus.

 

[balaks]

I agree with most of what your saying re brexit and border poll etc.
However if/when it comes to agreeing the financial assistance required to make a new Ireland work, don't forget that the EU and possibly America would make massive amounts of funding available. The burden wouldn't just sit with the UK or Irish governments.
I actually think it's pretty inevitable it will happen now....

Yeah great point.