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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Paul the Wolf

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"By threatening to oppose her deal in a Commoms vote on 11th December, Mrs May said Labour were effectively advocating leaving without a deal"

fecking cheek of her
The problem is that she is right and Corbyn has fallen into the trap and will get at least part of the blame.

The EU repeated yet again today, there is no other deal. There can be no other deal. The only other option is to cancel Brexit if the EU let them.
 

Sassy Colin

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The problem is that she is right and Corbyn has fallen into the trap and will get at least part of the blame.

The EU repeated yet again today, there is no other deal. There can be no other deal. The only other option is to cancel Brexit if the EU let them.
They might make us sweat a bit, but this is what everyone, with a brain, really wants.
 

Adisa

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As I said months ago. The idea that Corbyn wouldn't take any flak for a shit brexit was bollocks. Which makes his "constructive ambiguity" a flowed plan. It's probably too late in the process for him to start preaching anything workable. He should have been clear on what kind of brexit he wants as soon as A50 was triggered and it would have made him a credible voice now, considering the Tories are a mess.
 

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"By threatening to oppose her deal in a Commoms vote on 11th December, Mrs May said Labour were effectively advocating leaving without a deal"

fecking cheek of her
As it stands she's right. Labour haven't proposed anything at all that might change that course of events. For instance they could get wholeheartedly behind a second referendum, but they would need to decide that soon, they would need to be clear about what the question would be, when it would be and so on, and most importantly they would need assurances from the EU as to if and under what conditions they might allow us to remain, as without that Leave would win again anyway. I don't see Labour preparing for any of this or anything else, and time is running out.
They might make us sweat a bit, but this is what everyone, with a brain, really wants.
This may be so or may not, but unless some one asks the EU Council to meet and decide what the terms would be then we couldn't be sure they wouldn't insist on us joining the Euro, Schengen, and the rest, and if Remain couldn't win the last referendum they sure as hell wouldn't win another with that possibility still open.

I don't know where all these people with brains are hiding, because I'm seeing absolutely nothing that's likely to stop Brexit occurring so far.
 

Smores

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As it stands she's right. Labour haven't proposed anything at all that might change that course of events. For instance they could get wholeheartedly behind a second referendum, but they would need to decide that soon, they would need to be clear about what the question would be, when it would be and so on, and most importantly they would need assurances from the EU as to if and under what conditions they might allow us to remain, as without that Leave would win again anyway. I don't see Labour preparing for any of this or anything else, and time is running out.

This may be so or may not, but unless some one asks the EU Council to meet and decide what the terms would be then we couldn't be sure they wouldn't insist on us joining the Euro, Schengen, and the rest, and if Remain couldn't win the last referendum they sure as hell wouldn't win another with that possibility still open.

I don't know where all these people with brains are hiding, because I'm seeing absolutely nothing that's likely to stop Brexit occurring so far.
They've tabled a fairly significant amendment that says parliament is to block a no brexit. That's a fairly significant step and the complete opposite of what May is saying.

They need to stand firm now and say they won't be bullied into a bad deal and they're not going to allow this country to suffer through a no deal. That means they or the Tories will need to try renegotiate and if that fails then a referendum to cancel Brexit.

They'll get some flak for it sure but the blame is on May/Tories for not delivering an acceptable Brexit to parliament.
 

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They've tabled a fairly significant amendment that says parliament is to block a no brexit. That's a fairly significant step and the complete opposite of what May is saying.

They need to stand firm now and say they won't be bullied into a bad deal and they're not going to allow this country to suffer through a no deal. That means they or the Tories will need to try renegotiate and if that fails then a referendum to cancel Brexit.

They'll get some flak for it sure but the blame is on May/Tories for not delivering an acceptable Brexit to parliament.
Thanks, but I don't understand what 'block a no brexit' means, not being sarky, I just don't.

Other than that, I can't see how parliament can force the EU to negotiate if the EU doesn't want to, and I can't see how Remain could win a second referendum without EU guarantees first, and no one has even asked them that in the first place, and it's not a question they could answer overnight, as all the member states would have to be consulted.

I can see how Labour might bring down May, and possibly trigger a general election, but if they're putting that gamble ahead of a responsible Brexit policy they won't be getting my vote.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I seriously do not understand what is going on in the UK.

May's touring the country selling the deal to who?
What the hell will a general election do?
Even another referendum is unlikely to change anything?
Furthermore there's no time left.

There is no renegotiation.
The options were blindingly obvious since the beginning.
There is no cake, there are no cherries.

Without cancelling Brexit, May's deal is actually the best option.
 

Sassy Colin

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They've tabled a fairly significant amendment that says parliament is to block a no brexit. That's a fairly significant step and the complete opposite of what May is saying.

They need to stand firm now and say they won't be bullied into a bad deal and they're not going to allow this country to suffer through a no deal. That means they or the Tories will need to try renegotiate and if that fails then a referendum to cancel Brexit.

They'll get some flak for it sure but the blame is on May/Tories for not delivering an acceptable Brexit to parliament.
Such a think does not exist.
 

Smores

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Thanks, but I don't understand what 'block a no brexit' means, not being sarky, I just don't.

Other than that, I can't see how parliament can force the EU to negotiate if the EU doesn't want to, and I can't see how Remain could win a second referendum without EU guarantees first, and no one has even asked them that in the first place, and it's not a question they could answer overnight, as all the member states would have to be consulted.

I can see how Labour might bring down May, and possibly trigger a general election, but if they're putting that gamble ahead of a responsible Brexit policy they won't be getting my vote.
Until we confirm whether we can revoke or extend it means nothing to no one but there's an assumption backed up by what the EU are saying that we will in fact be able to revoke (perhaps not unilaterally).
 

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Until we confirm whether we can revoke or extend it means nothing to no one but there's an assumption backed up by what the EU are saying that we will in fact be able to revoke (perhaps not unilaterally).
The assumption may well be true but unless, not until, the EU clarify their position there's no chance of Remain winning a referendum. I've no doubt at all there will be people in France right now saying if the UK wants back into Europe they will have to prove they are good Europeans and join the Euro, Schengen and give up any special rebates. Whether that view would ever win a Council vote isn't relevant, the mere threat of it would guarantee a Leave vote in a dozen referendums. (or is it referenda, shit, I don't know).

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Labour get behind a second referendum eventually, in a half-arsed way, too late, with a crap question, no clarification of what the choices mean whatsoever, and lose it.
 

Fully Fledged

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She keeps saying "no one thought we would get this deal", who exactly?

She's giving evidence to the brexit committee currently and answering absolutely nothing but giving her prepared slogans even when they don't make sense.
I seriously do not understand what is going on in the UK.

May's touring the country selling the deal to who?
What the hell will a general election do?
Even another referendum is unlikely to change anything?
Furthermore there's no time left.

There is no renegotiation.
The options were blindingly obvious since the beginning.
There is no cake, there are no cherries.

Without cancelling Brexit, May's deal is actually the best option.
There is only one best option and that is cancelling Brexit. All other options will cause harm to the country. On this one point I agree with the Americans and would say that a soft Brexit is the 'least worst option'. I hate the term 'least worst' but in this case it fits as all exit options are worse than staying.
 

Paul the Wolf

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There is only one best option and that is cancelling Brexit. All other options will cause harm to the country. On this one point I agree with the Americans and would say that a soft Brexit is the 'least worst option'. I hate the term 'least worst' but in this case it fits as all exit options are worse than staying.
Agree with you but how and who is going to cancel it. Don't think any politician has the guts to cancel it and how will parliament allow it to be cancelled. Furthermore both parties leaders are set on the country's destruction as long as their personal ambition is achieved.
 

Massive Spanner

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At this stage cancelling it will probably solve feck all, leave the UK more divided than ever, and then you'll end up leaving again in another 10-15 years.

As much as it pains me to say it the only thing that will sort this 'mess' is the UK crashing out,the leavers actually feeling the horrid effects, and then being let back in.

As an Irish person I obviously want the UK to stay but I feel like if they did it'd only be a temporary fix until it all bubbles up again.
 

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The EU claim that they will never allow this. But of course, a lot can change in a couple of years time.
Of course they'll allow it.

They claim they don't because they don't want the UK to think they have the option if (when) things go tits up for them.
 

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Of course they'll allow it.

They claim they don't because they don't want the UK to think they have the option if (when) things go tits up for them.
They'll allow it, but not under current conditions.
 

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Agree with you but how and who is going to cancel it. Don't think any politician has the guts to cancel it and how will parliament allow it to be cancelled. Furthermore both parties leaders are set on the country's destruction as long as their personal ambition is achieved.
A government should work for the best interests of the country that it governs. They should be like doctors with the motto first, do no harm. If any policy that they are considering fails to meet that criteria then it should be voted down.

Now we all know that the people who voted for Brexit don't except how much this will impact them when everything goes south. The thing is that when it does impact them they wont go hands up I made a mistake it's my bad. They will blame the politicians that got them there. So when this does get FUBAR'd everybody is going to blame the people who implemented it. The people who wanted to stay will blame the politicians who pulled them out for their problems but those who wanted to stay will also blame the politicians who pulled them out if their life is suddenly worse. Heaven knows nothing can ever be their fault. So they might as well vote it down and stay on the good side of the remainers as have everybody against them.
 

Stick

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A government should work for the best interests of the country that it governs. They should be like doctors with the motto first, do no harm. If any policy that they are considering fails to meet that criteria then it should be voted down.

Now we all know that the people who voted for Brexit don't except how much this will impact them when everything goes south. The thing is that when it does impact them they wont go hands up I made a mistake it's my bad. They will blame the politicians that got them there. So when this does get FUBAR'd everybody is going to blame the people who implemented it. The people who wanted to stay will blame the politicians who pulled them out for their problems but those who wanted to stay will also blame the politicians who pulled them out if their life is suddenly worse. Heaven knows nothing can ever be their fault. So they might as well vote it down and stay on the good side of the remainers as have everybody against them.
Surely they will just blame the EU...........wait........
 

RORY65

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Surely they will just blame the EU...........wait........
They've had the EU and the previous Labour government for 8 years and over the last couple of years its increasingly been the fault of remainers who keep talking the UK down.
 

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Of course they'll allow it.

They claim they don't because they don't want the UK to think they have the option if (when) things go tits up for them.
It's not quite that simple though. At the moment they want us to stay of course, but if we leave it opens up a lot of new possibilities for further integration. Once that starts, letting us back in could be seriously troublesome, plus we'll have cost them a huge amount of money already with this Brexit nonsense.
 

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Surely they will just blame the EU...........wait........
Did people blame the banks for the last recession or blame themselves for over-financing? There are plenty of people who are still lending more than they can afford now and Labour are the sole reason that the recession happened even though worldwide deregulation of the banking industry was to blame.
 

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It's not quite that simple though. At the moment they want us to stay of course, but if we leave it opens up a lot of new possibilities for further integration. Once that starts, letting us back in could be seriously troublesome, plus we'll have cost them a huge amount of money already with this Brexit nonsense.
We wont get all the vetoes if we go back in. We'll be expected to transfer to the Euro and accept Schengen. If we leave and ask to go back we are going back in a position of weakness.
 

Paul the Wolf

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A government should work for the best interests of the country that it governs. They should be like doctors with the motto first, do no harm. If any policy that they are considering fails to meet that criteria then it should be voted down.

Now we all know that the people who voted for Brexit don't except how much this will impact them when everything goes south. The thing is that when it does impact them they wont go hands up I made a mistake it's my bad. They will blame the politicians that got them there. So when this does get FUBAR'd everybody is going to blame the people who implemented it. The people who wanted to stay will blame the politicians who pulled them out for their problems but those who wanted to stay will also blame the politicians who pulled them out if their life is suddenly worse. Heaven knows nothing can ever be their fault. So they might as well vote it down and stay on the good side of the remainers as have everybody against them.
Yes the government should put the country first. But they haven't, they've continued to spout the nonsense for the past 30 months about how great it's going to be and pandered to the uninformed. Don't see them changing now.
 

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The EU claim that they will never allow this. But of course, a lot can change in a couple of years time.
Of course they'll allow it.

They claim they don't because they don't want the UK to think they have the option if (when) things go tits up for them.
They'll allow it, but not under current conditions.
It's not quite that simple though. At the moment they want us to stay of course, but if we leave it opens up a lot of new possibilities for further integration. Once that starts, letting us back in could be seriously troublesome, plus we'll have cost them a huge amount of money already with this Brexit nonsense.
We wont get all the vetoes if we go back in. We'll be expected to transfer to the Euro and accept Schengen. If we leave and ask to go back we are going back in a position of weakness.
The truth is we have no idea what the EU would allow or what their conditions might be, simply because the EU themselves don't know. Each member state would have to discuss the possibility and formulate it's own opinion, then vote in the Council of Ministers, and I'll admit I don't know but vetos might come in to play as well.

The crucial point of this, and apologies for the repetition, is that if there is any possibility at all of the UK having to join the Euro and Schengen, and losing it's rebate and vetos then Leave will win any vote by a much increased margin. Calling for a referendum without finding this out first would be handing Brexit to Leave on a plate.
 
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Smores

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Did people blame the banks for the last recession or blame themselves for over-financing? There are plenty of people who are still lending more than they can afford now and Labour are the sole reason that the recession happened even though worldwide deregulation of the banking industry was to blame.
I was thinking this point the other day, i guarantee that those who want a no deal brexit and think everything will be fine are the exact same people who still blame Labour for causing our last recession.

I'd love them to try and square the two trains of thought.
 

Sassy Colin

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I was thinking this point the other day, i guarantee that those who want a no deal brexit and think everything will be fine are the exact same people who still blame Labour for causing our last recession.

I'd love them to try and square the two trains of thought.
Well, whilst I don't directly blame Labour for the last recession, these things come in cycles and there is little you can do about it, I do blame them for presiding over the longest period of sustained economic growth in the UK, whilst not putting a single penny aside for a rainy day, squandering a chance to soften the blow of any future recession. Didn't those cnuts coin the phrase "No more boom & bust"?

I want to stay in the EU though :)
 

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Did people blame the banks for the last recession or blame themselves for over-financing? There are plenty of people who are still lending more than they can afford now and Labour are the sole reason that the recession happened even though worldwide deregulation of the banking industry was to blame.
It's a chicken and egg argument. People were irresponsible borrowing money beyond their means but the financial institutions need to be above the average Joe asking for money and look harder at what they are offering. Especially the central bank. I was pointing at the fact that the Tories tend to point the finger consistently at the EU for all their issues and deflect away any shortcomings on their part.
 

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They've had the EU and the previous Labour government for 8 years and over the last couple of years its increasingly been the fault of remainers who keep talking the UK down.
A decent opposition should be able to wipe the floor with them.
 

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The truth is we have no idea what the EU would allow or what their conditions might be, simply because the EU themselves don't know. Each member state would have to discuss the possibility and formulate it's own opinion, then vote in the Council of Ministers, and I'll admit I don't know but vetos might come in to play as well.

The crucial point of this, and apologies for the repetition, is that if there is any possibility at all of the UK having to join the Euro and Schengen, and losing it's rebate and vetos then Leave will win any vote by a much increased margin. Calling for a referendum without finding this out first would be handing Brexit to Leave on a plate.
I don't mean if we don't leave. I mean that if we leave and in a year or 18 months go back cap in hand. I seriously think that if we say okay let's forget this that the EU will allow us to stay on the same terms that we currently have.
 

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I don't mean if we don't leave. I mean that if we leave and in a year or 18 months go back cap in hand. I seriously think that if we say okay let's forget this that the EU will allow us to stay on the same terms that we currently have.
Erm they can't allow us to stay as we are out?
And the rules for new members are clearly defined
You might think they would change those rules... Personally I'm not sure they would... But for sure on a legal basis once we are out we would have to apply to join just the same as anybody else
 

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Erm they can't allow us to stay as we are out?
And the rules for new members are clearly defined
You might think they would change those rules... Personally I'm not sure they would... But for sure on a legal basis once we are out we would have to apply to join just the same as anybody else
Unicorns. This is why they're in this mess. Everyone is just walking towards doom with the mentality of 'it'll work out'.
 

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It's a chicken and egg argument. People were irresponsible borrowing money beyond their means but the financial institutions need to be above the average Joe asking for money and look harder at what they are offering. Especially the central bank. I was pointing at the fact that the Tories tend to point the finger consistently at the EU for all their issues and deflect away any shortcomings on their part.
I totally agree with your first point but you have to take into account the greed and immorality of the human being. People got rich off of selling loans. It mattered not if the people that the loans were made to could afford them. It was all about get rich quick.

On the second point. Yes the Tories like blaming the EU for our problems but if we leave and the problems get worse will the public continue to agree with them or believe that it was all the fault of the party who took them out of Europe?
 

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I totally agree with your first point but you have to take into account the greed and immorality of the human being. People got rich off of selling loans. It mattered not if the people that the loans were made to could afford them. It was all about get rich quick.

On the second point. Yes the Tories like blaming the EU for our problems but if we leave and the problems get worse will the public continue to agree with them or believe that it was all the fault of the party who took them out of Europe?
"EU wouldn't give us deal etc."

Its already started.
 

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Erm they can't allow us to stay as we are out?
And the rules for new members are clearly defined
You might think they would change those rules... Personally I'm not sure they would... But for sure on a legal basis once we are out we would have to apply to join just the same as anybody else
No. I mean that if we have another referendum and vote to stay they will let us stay on the therms we currently have.
If we leave we are fecked. Both short term and long term by losing the benefits of being a founder member.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I don't mean if we don't leave. I mean that if we leave and in a year or 18 months go back cap in hand. I seriously think that if we say okay let's forget this that the EU will allow us to stay on the same terms that we currently have.
There is zero chance. New parliament which sits at the beginning of July in which the UK has no seats, they've gone, new Commission, council and new budget soon after until 2027. Terms will be different too with no escape clause.