Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,950
Location
France
No. I mean that if we have another referendum and vote to stay they will let us stay on the therms we currently have.
If we leave we are fecked. Both short term and long term by losing the benefits of being a founder member.
You are not founder member.
 

Fully Fledged

Full Member
Joined
May 23, 2013
Messages
16,217
Location
Midlands UK
There is zero chance. New parliament which sits at the beginning of July in which the UK has no seats, they've gone, new Commission, council and new budget soon after until 2027. Terms will be different too with no escape clause.
If we leave it will be devastating for the EU too. If there is a small chance of us staying I think they would jump at it. I believe that they said earlier that the only options now are the current deal, Hard Brexit or Cancel Brexit. They are open for Brexit to be cancelled because it is the option that causes least harm to the EU.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,831
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
If we leave it will be devastating for the EU too. If there is a small chance of us staying I think they would jump at it. I believe that they said earlier that the only options now are the current deal, Hard Brexit or Cancel Brexit. They are open for Brexit to be cancelled because it is the option that causes least harm to the EU.
But after 18 months the UK have already left long before. If the Uk are to cancel Brexit there is very little time left, after March 29th it's too late.
It won't be good for the EU but it won't be devastating, Ireland will suffer the most if there is no deal.

Can't talk for the other countries, but here it's accepted long ago that the UK are leaving in March and the mood of the EU is that they've offered the UK a deal, if they take it good but if they don't life goes on.
Brexit is now really only a big deal in the UK and probably Ireland.
 

Fully Fledged

Full Member
Joined
May 23, 2013
Messages
16,217
Location
Midlands UK
But after 18 months the UK have already left long before. If the Uk are to cancel Brexit there is very little time left, after March 29th it's too late.
It won't be good for the EU but it won't be devastating, Ireland will suffer the most if there is no deal.

Can't talk for the other countries, but here it's accepted long ago that the UK are leaving in March and the mood of the EU is that they've offered the UK a deal, if they take it good but if they don't life goes on.
Brexit is now really only a big deal in the UK and probably Ireland.
Yes. If we are to avoid Brexit it would mean moving very quickly which is something that our governments are not good at.

You say that Ireland is the main area that will be affected but Germany exports large amounts to the UK it will have a large impact on the German economy.
 

Fully Fledged

Full Member
Joined
May 23, 2013
Messages
16,217
Location
Midlands UK
The benefits you are referring to are way older than the formal EU but if you consider Maastricht as the starting point then fair enough.
Yes. We got our benefits from being there before the EU was formed. Part of the reason that the Tories gave for signing Maastricht was that they could restrict the Union from within.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,831
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
Yes. If we are to avoid Brexit it would mean moving very quickly which is something that our governments are not good at.

You say that Ireland is the main area that will be affected but Germany exports large amounts to the UK it will have a large impact on the German economy.
We're going back to the BMW arguments here. Only 7% of Germany's exports go to the UK. They still have agreements with the other 26 EU countries and the other trade deals the EU have. Furthermore their borders are not going to be disrupted.
 

Fully Fledged

Full Member
Joined
May 23, 2013
Messages
16,217
Location
Midlands UK
We're going back to the BMW arguments here. Only 7% of Germany's exports go to the UK. They still have agreements with the other 26 EU countries and the other trade deals the EU have. Furthermore their borders are not going to be disrupted.
7% is a large portion of their exports. It won't be catastrophic but it will hurt Germany.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,831
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
7% is a large portion of their exports. It won't be catastrophic but it will hurt Germany.
And 9.5% of Uk exports go to Germany, nevermind the rest of the EU.
Yes it will hurt but trade will still continue both ways.

What concerns me more is the disruption closed borders will cause, customs checks, documentation, certification, regulations etc which the Uk will have to deal with. The other EU countries only have this problem if they deal with the UK.
 

Fully Fledged

Full Member
Joined
May 23, 2013
Messages
16,217
Location
Midlands UK
And 9.5% of Uk exports go to Germany, nevermind the rest of the EU.
Yes it will hurt but trade will still continue both ways.

What concerns me more is the disruption closed borders will cause, customs checks, documentation, certification, regulations etc which the Uk will have to deal with. The other EU countries only have this problem if they deal with the UK.
I know we have a far worse deal of it. I'm not saying that we will get a better deal because Germany and other will suffer from the fallout of Brexit just that they would be willing to forget Brexit if it meant that none of us felt the pain.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,950
Location
France
And 9.5% of Uk exports go to Germany, nevermind the rest of the EU.
Yes it will hurt but trade will still continue both ways.

What concerns me more is the disruption closed borders will cause, customs checks, documentation, certification, regulations etc which the Uk will have to deal with. The other EU countries only have this problem if they deal with the UK.
And the UK are currently part of the SM supply chain, a lot of products that transits through the UK are not meant for the UK, they are simply transiting but still counted. While the figures are interesting to have a mental idea of the volume of flux between the two countries, it doesn't tell you much about what would happen if the chain was cut. For example a seat belt produced in the UK can go to Germany, then go back in a car to the UK where they will add something to the car that will eventually go back to Germany. This process can be altered and bypass the UK, this is true for products that are meant for the british market too.
 

Fully Fledged

Full Member
Joined
May 23, 2013
Messages
16,217
Location
Midlands UK
And the UK are currently part of the SM supply chain, a lot of products that transits through the UK are not meant for the UK, they are simply transiting but still counted. While the figures are interesting to have a mental idea of the volume of flux between the two countries, it doesn't tell you much about what would happen if the chain was cut. For example a seat belt produced in the UK can go to Germany, then go back in a car to the UK where they will add something to the car that will eventually go back to Germany. This process can be altered and bypass the UK, this is true for products that are meant for the british market too.
I know I work for a company that supplies parts for the Automotive industry.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,831
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
I know we have a far worse deal of it. I'm not saying that we will get a better deal because Germany and other will suffer from the fallout of Brexit just that they would be willing to forget Brexit if it meant that none of us felt the pain.
The EU would welcome back the UK as I said if it's (well) before March 29th , otherwise it will be much much more complicated. The EU will be instigating no deal scenario after 11th December if the UK parliament vote the deal down.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,831
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
And the UK are currently part of the SM supply chain, a lot of products that transits through the UK are not meant for the UK, they are simply transiting but still counted. While the figures are interesting to have a mental idea of the volume of flux between the two countries, it doesn't tell you much about what would happen if the chain was cut. For example a seat belt produced in the UK can go to Germany, then go back in a car to the UK where they will add something to the car that will eventually go back to Germany. This process can be altered and bypass the UK, this is true for products that are meant for the british market too.
For sure, if by the UK leaving the EU countries will gradually focus on the other EU countries to avoid disruption and unnecessary problems. Complications cost money.
Most of the lorries that go in and out of the UK aren't British. Why would a European transporter want to have his lorries and drivers delayed in massive queues at Dover or Calais?
The documentation would be unreal nevermind the physical checks.
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
The EU would welcome back the UK as I said if it's (well) before March 29th , otherwise it will be much much more complicated. The EU will be instigating no deal scenario after 11th December if the UK parliament vote the deal down.
Tusk said today it will be no deal or no Brexit so I guess that is the choice if the vote doesn’t get through. No Brexit would be great. Imagine putting this shite behind us.
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,548
Well, whilst I don't directly blame Labour for the last recession, these things come in cycles and there is little you can do about it, I do blame them for presiding over the longest period of sustained economic growth in the UK, whilst not putting a single penny aside for a rainy day, squandering a chance to soften the blow of any future recession. Didn't those cnuts coin the phrase "No more boom & bust"?

I want to stay in the EU though :)
I never get that argument, would those who thought austerity was right following the banking crises not have still wanted it had we put some aside?

I don't think it would have made one bit of a difference to how hard of an austerity was imposed. It's not like we've reached a certain debt level that's suddenly acceptable.
 

Stanley Road

Renaissance Man
Joined
Feb 19, 2001
Messages
39,991
Location
Wrong Unstable Leadership
But after 18 months the UK have already left long before. If the Uk are to cancel Brexit there is very little time left, after March 29th it's too late.
It won't be good for the EU but it won't be devastating, Ireland will suffer the most if there is no deal.

Can't talk for the other countries, but here it's accepted long ago that the UK are leaving in March and the mood of the EU is that they've offered the UK a deal, if they take it good but if they don't life goes on.
Brexit is now really only a big deal in the UK and probably Ireland.
I imagine the French are more concerned with rioting to care about brexit, you have enufff problems with your own eu loving leader to care about anyone else's issues. Same in belgium.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,831
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
I imagine the French are more concerned with rioting to care about brexit, you have enufff problems with your own eu loving leader to care about anyone else's issues. Same in belgium.
Rioting? Yobs in Paris last weekend. In our local town we had 6 blokes and a woman standing outside the Tax office taking selfies. Haven't seen anything all week. Filled up today and paid €1.37/litre.
Hardly been anything about Brexit for ages on TV.
There'll probably be something tomorrow in Paris. Le Pen and co. urging them on.
 

Simbo

Full Member
Joined
Oct 25, 2010
Messages
5,231
7% is a large portion of their exports. It won't be catastrophic but it will hurt Germany.
What cars do you think Brits are gunna buy instead of their Audi/VW/BMW/Mercs? Sales will slow a bit as with any country suffering economic slowdown and inflation, but we will still buy their cars... They don't have much to worry about.
 

onemanarmy

Full Member
Joined
Jul 18, 2013
Messages
4,715
Location
Belgium
I imagine the French are more concerned with rioting to care about brexit, you have enufff problems with your own eu loving leader to care about anyone else's issues. Same in belgium.
Yeah, those 30 far right morons are really topping our thoughts at the moment.

People don't care about the Brexit, they just want it to be over. The only time it's in the news is when May does a silly dance. It's a little bit the same as modern day politics in the US. A laughing stock for most of the world, but still a bit scary how it's going to affect our daily lives.
 
Last edited:

Stanley Road

Renaissance Man
Joined
Feb 19, 2001
Messages
39,991
Location
Wrong Unstable Leadership
Rioting? Yobs in Paris last weekend. In our local town we had 6 blokes and a woman standing outside the Tax office taking selfies. Haven't seen anything all week. Filled up today and paid €1.37/litre.
Hardly been anything about Brexit for ages on TV.
There'll probably be something tomorrow in Paris. Le Pen and co. urging them on.
Thats just it, you live in the boonys and you're oblivious to the feelings of the common man. Thats always been your case in this thread. Well done with your low petrol prices mind, guess its not just uk that doesn't like paying tax.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,950
Location
France
Thats just it, you live in the boonys and you're oblivious to the feelings of the common man. Thats always been your case in this thread. Well done with your low petrol prices mind, guess its not just uk that doesn't like paying tax.
No, it really isn't the common man. The movement isn't widely followed and it's only in the news because of a minority of far right agitators. One of the reason behind the lack of popular support is probably the fact that this policy started in 2015, it's not really new and diesel cars are supposed to disappear by 2024.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,831
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
Thats just it, you live in the boonys and you're oblivious to the feelings of the common man. Thats always been your case in this thread. Well done with your low petrol prices mind, guess its not just uk that doesn't like paying tax.
I'm 25 minutes from a large city and they blocked three roundabouts there. It's on the news here but it's peaceful protest. They changed from the petrol prices when they started going down and started on about tax and low pay etc.
In shocking news people don't want to pay tax and want more money.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,107
Location
Centreback
What cars do you think Brits are gunna buy instead of their Audi/VW/BMW/Mercs? Sales will slow a bit as with any country suffering economic slowdown and inflation, but we will still buy their cars... They don't have much to worry about.
Austin Allegro?
 

Bury Red

Backs Fergie, Yells Giggs!
Joined
Aug 31, 2001
Messages
10,627
Location
Nomadic no more
What cars do you think Brits are gunna buy instead of their Audi/VW/BMW/Mercs? Sales will slow a bit as with any country suffering economic slowdown and inflation, but we will still buy their cars... They don't have much to worry about.
I was aiming for a Merc GLE when I’m up for a new car in March but depending how things go might be downgrading to a GLC or a Jag F-Pace. But even that’s hardly buying British when they’re owned by Tara.
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,548
Yes but if they don't want no deal the UK has to cancel Brexit and quickly.
I'm interested what makes you think we'd need to do it so quickly? If we ended up wanting to revoke in February why couldn't that be done?

Whatever the obstacles given the significance of the event i can't see anything but working to the 11th hour
 

CA_vampire

New Member
Joined
Aug 12, 2017
Messages
977
Location
California
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46407249

The UK's interests "will be repeatedly and permanently hammered by the EU27 for many years to come", Mr Gyimah said in a Facebook post setting out his reasons for resigning.

...

Mrs May has now said the British army will not use Galileo and the UK will instead explore options to build its own satellite-navigation system - having already set aside £92m to look at how it can be done.

Britain will build a new Galileo system! Ha ha ha!

Perhaps with the 350 million per week savings???
 

Stanley Road

Renaissance Man
Joined
Feb 19, 2001
Messages
39,991
Location
Wrong Unstable Leadership
The markets small because brits don't eat herring, nothing to do with competition
Markets small so people should be ignored right? The european market is not so small so keep the waters and sell to them. I was eating lobster in mallorca years ago and i asked if it was caught locally, course not, the waiter explained a lot of the fish came from uk waters. But feck livelyhoods of small markets, conglomerates is where its at.
 

EyeInTheSky

Full Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2015
Messages
9,992
Location
On my sofa enjoying pineapple on its own
Maybe I'm giving people too much credit but when the bite really hurts I would expect people to turn around and say but you said this would be better.
I'm afraid You are. They will look for any migrants that are left failing that they will find people poorer than themselves and punch downwards. All the while the rich prep boys who hedged against them and their country will be revered.
 

sullydnl

Ross Kemp's caf ID
Joined
Sep 13, 2012
Messages
34,063
Hell, they could just keep blaming the EU. "They wouldn't give us a fair deal" and all that. Why change the habit of a lifetime? Plus there will always be lower classes and minorities to scapegoat. All so much easier than accepting you made a stupid decision.
 

Mozza

It’s Carrick you know
Joined
Jul 13, 2002
Messages
23,353
Location
Let Rooney be Rooney
Markets small so people should be ignored right? The european market is not so small so keep the waters and sell to them. I was eating lobster in mallorca years ago and i asked if it was caught locally, course not, the waiter explained a lot of the fish came from uk waters. But feck livelyhoods of small markets, conglomerates is where its at.
Markets small so to help the fisherman you find a bigger market, how is that ignoring people?
 

sun_tzu

The Art of Bore
Joined
Aug 23, 2010
Messages
19,536
Location
Still waiting for the Youthquake
I was aiming for a Merc GLE when I’m up for a new car in March but depending how things go might be downgrading to a GLC or a Jag F-Pace. But even that’s hardly buying British when they’re owned by Tara.
530e m-sport... Super tax efficient as a company car if you can live with the small boot
 
Last edited: