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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Adisa

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So they're delaying the immigration white paper now as well. What parliament is being asked to vote on is so flimsy and insubstantial I'm surprised they're not refusing to vote.

An economic analysis that doesn't cover the actual proposal, hidden legal advice, essentially wiki copy and paste industry papers. Farce
I really is. They've given parliament a blank paper and ordered them to sign whatever is on it .This government is a shambles.
 

Kentonio

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This stuff about the legal advice is frankly bizarre. There's a binding commons motion saying they have to release it, how can they just turn around and say no?
 

Adisa

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You get the impression May genuinely thinks Brexit is all about immigration.
 

Classical Mechanic

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I don't get this narrative that if the deal is not accepted, then we risk no deal, or no Brexit.

What's the risk of no Brexit?
It would seriously undermine the Tories as they would fail to deliver on Brexit.

It would be political currency for Labour of significant strength. Kind of like Iraq is to the hard left within the Labour party. Whenever Labour are in doubt they can just shout 'you failed to deliver Brexit and the democratic will of the British people'.
 

Smores

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This stuff about the legal advice is frankly bizarre. There's a binding commons motion saying they have to release it, how can they just turn around and say no?
They can't and they're (hopefully) about to be taken to task on it. The ERG have just said it's been padded out substantially as the original was only 6 pages long. May has always done this, she tries to deliver whatever the outcome so she'll try to do so even if it means contempt of parliament.

This is proper dodgy dossier territory and it's not only this May is doing it in every forum and official release. It's a huge swindle and when she's toppled we'll hear off all the dirty tactics.
 

Kentonio

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They can't and they're (hopefully) about to be taken to task on it. The ERG have just said it's been padded out substantially as the original was only 6 pages long. May has always done this, she tries to deliver whatever the outcome so she'll try to do so even if it means contempt of parliament.

This is proper dodgy dossier territory and it's not only this May is doing it in every forum and official release. It's a huge swindle and when she's toppled we'll hear off all the dirty tactics.
I think they'll do everything they can to drag it out until after the vote.
 

Honest John

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You get the impression May genuinely thinks Brexit is all about immigration.
To most leavers it was. All this bollocks about sovereignty, money and third country trade deals was only the concern of the hard core leavers like Ukip and other eurosceptics. They cynically exploited the plight of hard up people, especially in the East and North East by telling them that the source of all their woes were immigrants. They blurred the lines between EU and non-EU with posters which were frankly misleading at best and disgusting at worse.

Latest figures appear to show that the reduction of EU net migration has been replaced by an increase in non-EU net migration. Which tells you what? As the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world (whatever we are), it is difficult to reduce overall net migration if you want growth to continue. So the whole argument starts to crumble really.
 

sun_tzu

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It would seriously undermine the Tories as they would fail to deliver on Brexit.

It would be political currency for Labour of significant strength. Kind of like Iraq is to the hard left within the Labour party. Whenever Labour are in doubt they can just shout 'you failed to deliver Brexit and the democratic will of the British people'.
TBH I think if May cant get her deal through she will just switch to saying ok then - will of the people is to leave, will of parliment is not to accept the deal - we leave with no deal

If Labour try to attach an ammendment seeking to prevent no deal then she simplay calls an election and fights it on the basis of an in / out referendum

Basically its her only way to survive I think - deal gets voted down... she switches straight away to hard brexit and gets onside the ERG and DUP to survive the confidence vote

They will say they delivered on the will of the people - and any economic hardship they will say is labours fault for playing party politics and not supporting the deal in the national interest - not saying everybody will side with that - but its a spinable point of view and will be consistently delivered over and over and over again
 

sun_tzu

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This stuff about the legal advice is frankly bizarre. There's a binding commons motion saying they have to release it, how can they just turn around and say no?
I believe the convention in UK law is that information and advice from a lawyer to a client can not be forced to be handed over (I guess the UK equivalent of client / attorney privilege) and therefore they feel they are under no obligation to publish the full raw advice - similarly I believe the full advice over the iraq war was not published citing the same rules (and at the time May was saying this was outrageous)

On a personal basis I think its reached the point that its more harmful not to publish - if its not published those against the deal will just assume the worst anyway - it just makes the process look (even more) dis-organised
 

Honest John

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DUP love all this legal stuff. They are past masters at finding an 'if' instead of a 'when' in a 585 page document and claiming, in the best Rev. Paisley tradition, "WE'VE BEEN SOLD DOWN THE RIVAAAAR"
 

Kentonio

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I believe the convention in UK law is that information and advice from a lawyer to a client can not be forced to be handed over (I guess the UK equivalent of client / attorney privilege) and therefore they feel they are under no obligation to publish the full raw advice - similarly I believe the full advice over the iraq war was not published citing the same rules (and at the time May was saying this was outrageous)

On a personal basis I think its reached the point that its more harmful not to publish - if its not published those against the deal will just assume the worst anyway - it just makes the process look (even more) dis-organised
As far as I'm aware, that kind of privilege has absolutely no power in the face of a binding commons motion. Parliament is sovereign. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.
 

Sassy Colin

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It would seriously undermine the Tories as they would fail to deliver on Brexit.

It would be political currency for Labour of significant strength. Kind of like Iraq is to the hard left within the Labour party. Whenever Labour are in doubt they can just shout 'you failed to deliver Brexit and the democratic will of the British people'.
At least the country won't be destroyed, I'm rather more worried about that, tbh.
 

Smores

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I believe the convention in UK law is that information and advice from a lawyer to a client can not be forced to be handed over (I guess the UK equivalent of client / attorney privilege) and therefore they feel they are under no obligation to publish the full raw advice - similarly I believe the full advice over the iraq war was not published citing the same rules (and at the time May was saying this was outrageous)

On a personal basis I think its reached the point that its more harmful not to publish - if its not published those against the deal will just assume the worst anyway - it just makes the process look (even more) dis-organised
The question then is who is the client? They're acting on behalf of parliament so i find it hard to contemplate parliament not being the client.

I thought the iraq war advice was released eventually?

And if the deal has been agreed it can't damage negotiations which was an earlier argument, I'm not sure what their reason is beyond 'convention'. The client has every right to share
 

Mozza

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The story about Labour strategists trying to shape the debate so he could talk about austerity instead of Brexit, showed exactly how much of a feck he gives about it.
Part of the vote for Brexit was a revolt against austerity so its entirely appropriate
 

Kentonio

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Part of the vote for Brexit was a revolt against austerity so its entirely appropriate
Its supposed to be a debate about how the main two political options in the country would deal with Brexit. Corbyn not approving of austerity while having no clear position on Brexit is not helpful to that debate.
 

Mozza

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Its supposed to be a debate about how the main two political options in the country would deal with Brexit. Corbyn not approving of austerity while having no clear position on Brexit is not helpful to that debate.
'We will go for a softer Brexit because the problems you've been told are caused by the EU are actually the result of Tory austerity'
 

sun_tzu

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The question then is who is the client? They're acting on behalf of parliament so i find it hard to contemplate parliament not being the client.

I thought the iraq war advice was released eventually?

And if the deal has been agreed it can't damage negotiations which was an earlier argument, I'm not sure what their reason is beyond 'convention'. The client has every right to share
released in 2005 I think
as for who is the client - my understanding is that the AG provided advice to the government not the whole parliament?... might need a proper legal bod to confirm but thats my understanding
 

Smores

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released in 2005 I think
as for who is the client - my understanding is that the AG provided advice to the government not the whole parliament?... might need a proper legal bod to confirm but thats my understanding
It doesnt look like anyone in parliament even knows to be honest. He's answerable to the crown but his role (or one of) is government legal advisor so it's arguable. He also has seperate roles to Scotland and NI so I'd be intrigued to find out if they could ask for seperate legal advice.

Going to be a long angry week this :lol:
 

Kentonio

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'We will go for a softer Brexit because the problems you've been told are caused by the EU are actually the result of Tory austerity'
The softer Brexit the EU have already said is unattainable as they’re unwilling to reopen negotiations?
 

sun_tzu

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As far as I'm aware, that kind of privilege has absolutely no power in the face of a binding commons motion. Parliament is sovereign. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.
As far as I know the commons only has the right to hold May in contempt of parliment if she does not publish - but can not force the publication

what happens if she is held in contempt - well thats most probably a telling off prom the speaker and thats about it

In modern times, the House has shown increasing reluctance to exercise its powers even when evidence of a contempt is clear. Indeed, in 1967, the Select Committee on Parliamentary Privilege (a Committee specially set up to consider every aspect of privilege) recommended that "the House should exercise its penal jurisdiction (a) in any event as sparingly as possible, and (b) only when it is satisfied that to do so is essential in order to provide reasonable protection for the House, its Members or its Officers from such improper obstruction or attempt at or threat of obstruction as is causing, or is likely to cause, substantial interference with the performance of their respective functions". This recommendation was endorsed by the Committee of Privileges in 1977 and approved by the House and given immediate effect on 6 February 1978. This decision guides the Speaker, the House, and the appropriate Committee. A new Joint Committee on Parliamentary Privilege was set up in the 1996-97 Parliament, to consider the current situation on privilege, given, especially, the aftermath of the 'cash for questions' affairs and on Members' ability to waive privilege. It reported on 30 March 1999 (HC 214 1998/99, available on the internet at: http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/jt199899/jtselect/jtpriv/43/4302.htm The House debated the report on a motion for the adjournment on 27 October 1999, but has not yet agreed to implement its findings. In the 2010-11 Queen’s Speech, the Government announced its intention to publish a Draft Parliamentary Privilege Bill to build upon the Joint Committee on Parliamentary Privileges’ 1999 report. If the witness is in attendance, he or she may be brought by the Serjeant at Arms to the Bar of the House and before the assembled Members, to be admonished by the Speaker. If not in attendance, the witness may be ordered into the custody of the Serjeant, by use of the Warrant, to be brought to the Bar at a date and time specified by the House. The last stranger (nonMember) to be brought before the Bar and admonished by the Speaker was John Junor on 24 January 1957, for an article published in the Sunday Express casting doubt on the honour and integrity of Members. Junor apologised and no further action was taken. Members are admonished standing in their places. The last Member to be so admonished was Mr Tam Dalyell on 24 July 1968.
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/g06.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_Parliament
 

Kentonio

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They've said a lot of things. If the UK gets rid of May's red lines and is willing to join the EEA/Single market the EU will vote to extend A50 negotiations.
So why doesn’t Corbyn want to just focus on putting that forward as the official Labour position? Why the desire to talk about austerity instead? Are there still people who don’t know Labour are anti-austerity?
 

Dobba

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So why doesn’t Corbyn want to just focus on putting that forward as the official Labour position? Why the desire to talk about austerity instead? Are there still people who don’t know Labour are anti-austerity?
Exactly, everyone knows making Brexit go away will solve everything. Get that vote overturned and we can all put our feet up and definitely not have to look into why the initial referendum was lost. T'was merely a service station stop on the status quo highway.
 

Kentonio

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Exactly, everyone knows making Brexit go away will solve everything. Get that vote overturned and we can all put our feet up and definitely not have to look into why the initial referendum was lost. T'was merely a service station stop on the status quo highway.
Get Brexit overturned and I’ll be right behind Corbyn on his economic platform. But let’s stop this pretense that Brexit is going to do anything other than feck poor people even harder than they’re already being fecked, and that’s true regardless of how hard or soft the Brexit is.
 

Smores

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Cox is coming off an arse here keeps saying he doesn't want to be in conflict with the house but he's acting in the public interest in not sharing it. Who the feck is he to make that decision?
 

GloryHunter07

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Get Brexit overturned and I’ll be right behind Corbyn on his economic platform. But let’s stop this pretense that Brexit is going to do anything other than feck poor people even harder than they’re already being fecked, and that’s true regardless of how hard or soft the Brexit is.
Agree with this.
 

Dobba

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"You and your paper can feck off."
Get Brexit overturned and I’ll be right behind Corbyn on his economic platform. But let’s stop this pretense that Brexit is going to do anything other than feck poor people even harder than they’re already being fecked, and that’s true regardless of how hard or soft the Brexit is.
We've had a bunch of people whose only thought is overturning Brexit and look at the political dregs who they've made more than welcome. Not a single austerity backing voting record has been too much to gloss over. I have absolutely no faith in any of these 'People's Vote' pricks being even remotely interested in what comes next, looking at what they've been more than willing to overlook.

This is the first time I've seen any (even remotely) high profile politician wishing to talk about what happens next when Brexit isn't an issue anymore, in regards to learning the lessons from it getting to this point in the first place. May will be begging for any of these debates to be about Brexit and nothing else. Just like people like Soubry, Cable and co probably can't believe their luck when the gathered hordes don't bring up what they were more than willing to do with poor people's lives before this came along. Soubry went to a march, with thousands of people who are supposedly concerned about vulnerable people post-Brexit, three days after voting to keep the Universal Credit rollout assessment secret and was welcomed like a hero.

These people have had two and a half years, some of the most media friendly names in politics and an almost guaranteed spot on any medium that they wish, to come up with even a 'back of a fag packet' message or slogan for what comes next. When is the grand reveal?
 
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Smores

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The attorney general?
He's said in this exchange that he's at the will of the house and it can be shared in exception. He knows what it has voted on and he knows the will of the house now.

It appears to me that he's here only to enforce that if they want the information they'll need to pass a contempt motion (which has now been filed).

Perhaps there's something in it for which the goverment wish to avoid the blame of it being made public
 

Smores

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About to get interesting.

They've just sprung it on the speaker now, very interesting exchange :lol:

Cox tried to throw back a delaying tactic of asking the speaker to wait for governments proposala first. Wasn't having it, i do like Bercow
 

Adisa

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This government getting away with murder. How can you just ignore parliament?