Contact lost with Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 | 8th March 2014

[hungrywing]

Heh. I was just wracking my brain trying to remember who it was that was an air traffic controller on here.

...
Now, assuming the RADAR system uses both primary and secondary (i'd be very surprised if it only had secondary...although there are some that do), if the two signals just disappeared, there s only one of two answers, well...one answer...it exploded in mid air. Whether thats by a bomb or catastrophic structural failure, we wont know unless we find wreckage....which if it blew up at 35000 ft, it could be spread over a MASSIVE area...

 

[pauldyson1uk]

Only in the sense that we dont have a clue what happened due to lack of wreckage. What kicked off the AF447 ccrash was incredibly turbulent storms. It was calm as anything the other night. Weather will not be the issue,

No...well, incredibly unlikely.

Forstly, the idea that a 777 could land anywhere without anyone noticing is just incredibly unlikely...but maybe they were hijacked then crashed miles away? still unlikely...

There's been a lot said about the transponders, ill try explain a few things that might clear this up for some.

Yes, transponders can be turned off, ive had plenty of planes under my control get airborne and the pilots have forgot to turn their transponder on. It literally has an on/off switch.

However, most RADAR have two systems...or more accurately two types of RADAR. These are Primary and Secondary RADAR.

Primary RADAR is literally raw RADAR, the RADAR dish emits a beam, it bounces off something (anything) metal (doesn't always have to be metal!) and the computer puts a 'blip' on the RADAR screen where the beam hit. You cant (unless you have a stealth plane) turn that off.

Secondary RADAR is connected to this system but it emits a signal, and then the transponder on a plane hears this signal, and then it replies with a four digit code that ATC give it, lets say its '1234' and other information like altitude/heading/speed This is how ATC know how high and fast planes are going.

The RADAR dish then hears the reply of '1234', it knows that it came from the same place as the other 'big metal thing in the sky' return it got from the primary RADAR and then it tells the computer that this 'blip' is plane '1234' the computer then knows that the plane with code 1234 is...lets say Easy123 and on the RADAR screen it shows the original 'blip' and a label with 'EASY123' next to it with all the data (altitude/speed/heading etc).

So, although the transponder can be turned off or fail, the primary RADAR aspect cannot. The ATC RADAR will see the information (name/altitude/speed) disappear but the 'blip' will still be there, so although they wont know how high it is they will know the area it is.

Now, assuming the RADAR system uses both primary and secondary (i'd be very surprised if it only had secondary...although there are some that do), if the two signals just disappeared, there s only one of two answers, well...one answer...it exploded in mid air. Whether thats by a bomb or catastrophic structural failure, we wont know unless we find wreckage....which if it blew up at 35000 ft, it could be spread over a MASSIVE area.



Not necessarily. Pilots are trained to employ 'Aviate, Navigate, Communicate'. Basically this means in an emergency situation, you sort our whats going on and fly the bloody plane before talking to ATC. If its a catastrophic structural failure or explosion, its likely they wouldn't have had time or will to talk to ATC...after all, what could we do in that situation? So, it may not be THAT unusual.



Hppened before (egypt air i think) but again, why turn off the transponder? Also, see previous point about Primary/Secondary RADAR



They will have an Emergency Locator Beacon (ELT) that will auto turn on when crash happens, it may have been destroyed, and its range isnt that far (bout 5 miles i think). The Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder (Black Boxes) have locator beacons as well but they are even weaker and they wont get it from the air, they will have to be searching in a boat right over it.



Well, if you take the AFR447 crash as an example, they just glided down after stalling (well, gliding might be a bit misleading). Ive always thought it very likely everyone on board wouldn't have had a clue what was going on until the end...after all the pilots didnt, they only noticed and started to power up with seconds to go.

If its an explosion in mid air then you would lose pressurisation, and at 35000 ft you would go unconscious very quickly, and in fact its (apparently) quite a nice way to die as its really quite euphoric apparently!

This is one of the best posts I have seen on Redcafe, very informative and answered quite a few questions,

 

[Baxter]

Remember it is not the fall that kills you but the sudden stop at the end. But yeah having some amount of time even a few minutes to see it coming, can't be fun.

That's the thing about the AF crash. The pilots put the plane into a stall and it was descending for 2-3 minutes before hitting the water. Must've have been absolutely awful for the passengers and crew.

 

[lem8sh]

Amazed no-one has latched onto the fact that this particular plane had an accident before.

 

[Sky1981]

IMHO, the plane somehow landed slowly (not to break the plane) and sunk into the ocean (terrible tragedy), hence there's no debris on impact, probably communication / engine / electrical malfunction that jams all the radar / communique

It's kinda hard if the plane has already sunk into the bottom of the ocean, specially if they sunk intact (which is possible i there's a leakage in the cabin, with water coming in. (I'm not a techie, but surely that's physics 101?)

very scarry, but IMO an alien / hijacking / bombing / bermuda triangle is too far fetched

 

[Anderson's Cat]

That plane is at the bottom of the ocean and we'll wake up one morning this week to news that parts of it have been found.

 

[Anderson's Cat]

Just reading reports that family members have been getting ring tones as they try contact some of the passengers. Strange!

 

[Dracula]

Just reading reports that family members have been getting ring tones as they try contact some of the passengers. Strange!

Not really.

When you turn off your phone you also send a message to the network that you have left. So all calls will go to voicemail. if you leave your phone on and leave the network (I.e leave through vacating the network range) then usually you will hear a few rings before going to voicemail. All it means is that people didn't turn off their phones when told to do so.

 

[swooshboy]

Just reading reports that family members have been getting ring tones as they try contact some of the passengers. Strange!

Do you have a link to that?

That is strange. They've increased the search area and it now covers land...so not sure if the fact that phones are ringing suggest the plane came down on land??

 

[swooshboy]

Not really.

When you turn off your phone you also send a message to the network that you have left. So all calls will go to voicemail. if you leave your phone on and leave the network (I.e leave through vacating the network range) then usually you will hear a few rings before going to voicemail. All it means is that people didn't turn off their phones when told to do so.

Fair enough.

 

[Anderson's Cat]

Its the Daily Mail, but the report comes from the Washington Post and is quite detailed. It all adds to the mystery really.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...bers-claim-loved-ones-smartphones-active.html

 

[Getsme]

Pilot suicide has to be a possible reason.

 

[Edgar Allan Pillow]

They will have an Emergency Locator Beacon (ELT) that will auto turn on when crash happens, it may have been destroyed, and its range isnt that far (bout 5 miles i think). The Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder (Black Boxes) have locator beacons as well but they are even weaker and they wont get it from the air, they will have to be searching in a boat right over it.

This is presicely my point. Why is such a low identification radius still acceptable when the case of flying over large oceans and mountain chains are so common? The main point of having a transponder is to identify and when it is inefficient in cases where we need it (i.e flying over isolated regions) it is useless.

 

[Stretch]

Not really.

When you turn off your phone you also send a message to the network that you have left. So all calls will go to voicemail. if you leave your phone on and leave the network (I.e leave through vacating the network range) then usually you will hear a few rings before going to voicemail. All it means is that people didn't turn off their phones when told to do so.

I think most people will only accept this theory when it comes from a cellular network company. That's never happened my case and I often forget to switch off my phone when travelling. My better half says she knows when I'm flying since it goes straight to voicemail or gives a network dialing tone.

 

[Dracula]

I think most people will only accept this theory when it comes from a cellular network company. That's never happened my case and I often forget to switch off my phone when travelling. My better half says she knows when I'm flying since it goes straight to voicemail or gives a network dialing tone.

But also, if the phones were in any way 'on' or able to receive transmission it would be extremely easy for cell companies to triangulate the position. It would literally take a matter of minutes to do.

The point is, people think its 'interesting' that they were able to get a ring tone. End of the day there are reasons for this which arent suspicious. If people had survived and phones were on there is no way there would be no info about it.

 

[Dracula]

As a side note, it seems to me there is a lot of info that is not been divulged. There are a number of tracking/info data tracking for thia type of aircraft. Roles Royce will have data transmitted regarding their engine performance, the plane will transmit ACARS data (like a remote 'black box' info) and Boeing will have seperate data sent to them regarding aircraft performance. Thats three seperate companies (RR, Boeing, Malaysian Air) that should have data on what was happening to the aircraft up to the point that it no longer transmitted this info. My understanding is that it would be difficult to 'turn off' this data as its not so simple as turning off the aircraft's transponder.

with AF447, this info was on the internet within 2 days. Interesting that it is not here. Im certain the terrorism angle is a red herring, the passports, the iranians etc are just a coincidence. There was a crash a few years ago (think the adam air one) which had nothing to do with terrorism yet there were 12 fake/stolen passports on board.

There's a few different military agencies involved here, if they had any information from their RADAR, there is little to no chance they would share this information, they have no reason to, this may be one of the reasons for such lack of information being divulged.

Ive done a little more digging around, it seems there may have been only secondary RADAR in the ATC civilian RADAR and its the military RADAR (which has primary) that then showed it may have turned after 'losing contact' on the secondary RADAR which is very bizarre and opens up more scenarios unfortunately.

 

[x42bn6]

An interesting viewpoint from one of the Guardian's comments:

What you got there is a typical malaysian arse-covering scheme:

1. The first day after MH 370 disapeared, MY authortities stated that the plane was under their radar up to 2 hours after take off whereas FlightRadar24 noted the disapearance of the plane after 40 minutes (playback easy to check). On day 2 MY authorities finally acknowledged that there was a mistake and that indeed contact had been lost after less than one hour

2. A pilot which was piloting another plane ahead of MH 370 stated that he had made radio contact with with MH 370 about 50 minutes after MH 370 take off but that the communication was broken. This was first denied by by MH authorities before being acknowledged.

3. Malaysian military asserted that MH 370 could/may have turned back according to radar, hence justifying the broadening of the search area, whereas MY authorities state that this wasn't possible without triggering alarms all over the place. But if there was any radar ID their should know about it, but they acknowledged that indeed had lost contact with MH 370 after 40 min.

4. The profile of the men having boarded the plane was first asian, then non-asian possibly middle-eastern, then now black. All CCTV have been analysed by MY authorities for the past 48 hours and they to have a clear shot of the 2 men who boarded the plane with the false passports since more than 48 hours but refuse to release any any information about it.

5. It's the Financial Time that tracked the origin of the purchase of the ticket through a Thai travel agent and an iranien middleman. Not one word about this in the malaysian mainstream media...

6. But....the mainstream media have reported widely that "Raja Bomoh Sedunia Nujum VIP and 1Malaysia Corporate Bomoh said he suspects the missing aircraft was hijacked by elves (buniyan)".
"According to my vision,a large black figure believed to be an eagle was seen flying over the plane after which the plane plunged. I have been using my bubu (traditional fishing tool) and bamboo scopes to see the situation there, and I saw that the aircraft is currently suspended in mid air," he said.

7. To the question about the responsibility of Immigration Officers for letting 2 people boarding the plane with passport that had been reported stolen AND blacklisted by Interpol, the malaysian authorities responded that "we are talking about an international network here so the malaysian immigration officer cannot be blammed in full".

and much more to come...

http://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/32913256

 

[coolredwine]

One source says it could be in the Malacca Strait. Astonishing, if true!

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/malaysia-airlines-idINDEEA2900B20140311

 

[Wibble]

Amazed no-one has latched onto the fact that this particular plane had an accident before.

It clipped wings with another plane while taxiing didn't it? How is that in any way relevant?

 

[Tomalonge]

You know what happened. Aliens, nobody wants to say it other than that crazy haired dude on the history channel.

 

[OnlyTwoDaSilvas]

Not really.

When you turn off your phone you also send a message to the network that you have left. So all calls will go to voicemail. if you leave your phone on and leave the network (I.e leave through vacating the network range) then usually you will hear a few rings before going to voicemail. All it means is that people didn't turn off their phones when told to do so.

The reports are also saying some of the people are active and online on social networks via their smartphones as well. Does the same apply? Would the connection to social network just be prolonged indefinitely if the phone leaves the network range whilst active?

From the Daily Mail report:
"Telecoms expert Alan Spencer told MailOnline that if the phones are really ringing, they can categorically not be under the sea.
He added that the phones will only be ringing if they are ‘switched on, not in water, the battery is charged, and [they are] near a mobile cell site.’
This means that if the phones are genuinely ringing, the plane needs to have landed on land – not in the sea – and be in a location where there is cell service, rather than landing in the middle of a jungle, for example."

Telecoms expert. He knows his phones. Probably.

 

[JustAFan]

Amazed no-one has latched onto the fact that this particular plane had an accident before.

Was mentioned in one of the articles posted earlier in this thread I think. Wasn't it some sort of accident on the runway.

 

[JustAFan]

You know what happened. Aliens, nobody wants to say it other than that crazy haired dude on the history channel.

Too late already been mentioned in this thread.

 

[Tomalonge]

Too late already been mentioned in this thread.

Not enough for my liking.

 

[Edgar Allan Pillow]

http://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/32913256

Doesn't still answer the question of motive. Why would 2 Iranians want to bomb/hijack a MAL flight? Was it just a unfortunate coincidence that the flight they picked to move around quietly ended up in a accident?

 

[JustAFan]

At this point and in truth in most air accidents, terrorism ranks very low on the scale of what is the cause. Mechanical failure, pilot error and weather are usually at the top of the list. Certainly though the investigator rule nothing out until the evidence is there to suggest that it should be ruled out. It makes sense that the two men with the stolen passports are being looked at because you leave no stone unturned when trying to figure out what happened.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

One source says it could be in the Malacca Strait. Astonishing, if true!

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/malaysia-airlines-idINDEEA2900B20140311

Then why the hell didn't they tell the SAR teams that days ago? It could be that we've had countless resources focusing their efforts in the wrong place.

 

[JustAFan]

Then why the hell didn't they tell the SAR teams that days ago? It could be that we've had countless resources focusing their efforts in the wrong place.

The end of the article indicates that the investigators have known about this theory and have been following up on it. so it could still be a case that the SAR teams were not given this info or it could be a case that the SAR teams have been searching the areas that the best evidence suggest to be the correct one.

 

[rednev]

It's hard to imagine the plane breaking up over the sea and there being no trace of debris. Obviously there's a huge area to cover, but the search has been enormous by all accounts. And the debris wouldn't all be located in one area, it would have dispersed, increasing the chances of a sighting.

How plausible is the suggestion that it might have broken up over land and as a result the plane/debris is being sheltered by dense jungle? Surely over land it easily would have been monitored/registered in some way?

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

So why were they there and why didn't they communicate?

Let's say that there was a problem which prompted them to consider diverting or a return to Kuala Lumpur, the pilots set a new course on the autopilot which is then followed however before they can make radio communications find themselves incapacitated. If the cockpit alone suffered some form of rapid de-pressurisation would a crew member be able to gain access assuming that they had cause to do so? If unable to enter, does a means exist for them to contact ground control from the main cabin?


ETA: I was watching a documentary about the Qantas A380 which got into difficulties out of Singapore [a sterling job by the pilots btw], during the crisis the aircraft seemed to be communicating its faults to home base in Australia, does the 777 have the same capability?

 

[Red Dreams]

heard the plane turned from its course before disappearing from radar...whatever the reason. Could therefore the search be going on in the wrong area?

 

[JustAFan]

So why were they there and why didn't they communicate?

Let's say that there was a problem which prompted them to consider diverting or a return to Kuala Lumpur, the pilots set a new course on the autopilot which is then followed however before they can make radio communications find themselves incapacitated. If the cockpit alone suffered some form of rapid de-pressurisation would a crew member be able to gain access assuming that they had cause to do so? If unable to enter, does a means exist for them to contact ground control from the main cabin?

One you are assuming that they were actually where the military claims they were, at this point that is just one possibility. Today's news also indicated that the search area was being extended to land areas in Vietnam.

Basically Nick at this point we do not know what happened to the jet and therefore we do not know what actions the crew were or were not taking during the flight. Until that time we can all drive ourselves nuts wondering what was going on but the chances are very good we will all guess incorrectly.

And yes there are ways for the crew in the passenger section to contact various ground locations, even during the events of 9/11 phone calls were made to flight control by several of the stewardesses using phones installed on the jets.

 

[JustAFan]

heard the plane turned from its course before disappearing from radar...whatever the reason. Could therefore the search be going on in the wrong area?

Yes it is possible it is why they are extending the search area and according to one news report I saw today that extension includes areas overland in Vietnam. With SAR you start in the area that the best evidence suggests is the right one and move on from there. Unfortunately, there is just not the capability to do a proper search of everywhere at once.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

It's hard to imagine the plane breaking up over the sea and there being no trace of debris. Obviously there's a huge area to cover, but the search has been enormous by all accounts. And the debris wouldn't all be located in one area, it would have dispersed, increasing the chances of a sighting.

How plausible is the suggestion that it might have broken up over land and as a result the plane/debris is being sheltered by dense jungle? Surely over land it easily would have been monitored/registered in some way?

This has happened before, so it's not entirely unfeasible.

 

[JustAFan]

It's hard to imagine the plane breaking up over the sea and there being no trace of debris. Obviously there's a huge area to cover, but the search has been enormous by all accounts. And the debris wouldn't all be located in one area, it would have dispersed, increasing the chances of a sighting.

How plausible is the suggestion that it might have broken up over land and as a result the plane/debris is being sheltered by dense jungle? Surely over land it easily would have been monitored/registered in some way?

Overland is one possibility and as I have said according to one report I saw today they are extending the search area to include some land areas. Whether there would have been better radar coverage overland may or may not be the case, depends on where, is it within a radar coverage area, what is the land like (ie mountainous which could block radar signals), etc etc.

One things we are all learning again is that despite all our technology it is still possible for things to go wrong and the experts not be able to instantanously figure it all out. Obviously if they could have tracked the jet all the way to impact, even if it was in pieces, well then we would not be having all this discussion.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Basically Nick at this point we do not know what happened to the jet and therefore we do not know what actions the crew were or were not taking during the flight. Until that time we can all drive ourselves nuts wondering what was going on but the chances are very good we will all guess incorrectly.

And yes there are ways for the crew in the passenger section to contact various ground locations, even during the events of 9/11 phone calls were made to flight control by several of the stewardesses using phones installed on the jets.

I'd just like to make it perfectly clear that i wasn't meaning to accuse the crew of anything, just wondering at what options are open to them in such a scenario.

I know you can get intermittent mobile communication whilst out at sea [we got a fluke phone call from Blighty during a cruise once], i was wondering at there being a specific means set side for the cabin crew. You're right in so far as our speculations having their limits, although some members here on a position to impart information to more ignorant souls like myself.

 

[RedRonaldo]

Accident like that could take years to figure out.

 

[Red Dreams]

Yes it is possible it is why they are extending the search area and according to one news report I saw today that extension includes areas overland in Vietnam. With SAR you start in the area that the best evidence suggests is the right one and move on from there. Unfortunately, there is just not the capability to do a proper search of everywhere at once.

they are now saying, the search has been extended to the Straits of Malacca...the other side of the peninsula.

 

[Red Dreams]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/mi...sing-jet-not-likely-terrorist-official-n49591

 

[JustAFan]

they are now saying, the search has been extended to the Straits of Malacca...the other side of the peninsula.

You start your search in one area and as that area does not pan out, you begin extending your search areas.