xG for a single player over half a season is likely to be quite noisy. Talk about 'underperformance' from such a number has very little worth.
In fact, I just went and checked. Ronaldo has 6 non-penalty goals and an NPxG of 8.75. That would be an 'underperformance' of 2.75.
However, I can calculate the difference between NPxG and NPG for the top 10 goalscorers in the league. And if I get the standard deviation of that difference, it is... 2.76. The same number.
You cannot make any kind of narrative around this. It is unsound.
That’s a funny way to do math.
Very few players score the exact average or expected goals they accumulate. They all over- or underperform to some degree. The average npxG and average actual npg in the top 5 leagues usually ends up very close to each other (So far the average player in the PL this season is underperforming by 5%).
Ronaldo has been underperforming the most out of the top 10 goalscorers in the league. The average player in the top 10 goalscorers in the PL this season is actually overperforming their npxG by 0,75 goals this season including Ronaldo’s negative contribution to the pot. If you are underperforming your npxG by 30+% you’ve had a horrible season finishing wise, there is no way around it.
That said, I think tonights performance was one of the better ones we’ve had in a while, and I really liked that Ronaldo worked harder both defensively and offensively for 90 minutes than his usual, his link up play was better and his overall body language on the pitch was positive. It looks like he is actually working on some of the issues he’s gotten well deserved criticism on. Not a great performance from him, but if he’s playing like this at least he’s not hurting the team. West Ham created nothing playing against 11 men.
It’ll be harder for RR to bench him when he puts in that defensive effort every week. I still want us to play the youngsters though.