What explains Wilders win? I heard a few weeks ago he was behind in the polls. Do you think the mass Palestinian rallies across NL have emboldened his supporters and floating voters?
Dutch general elections on Wednesday!
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
Fecking Russian cnuts be celebrating another win.
I might have had some effect. There are people who dont know the difference between the average muslim and extremists. They see the a lot of people protesting and it might scare them to know so many people support a muslim group (Gaza, not Hamas). I have read people who claim to be afraid of 7/10 attack in the Netherlands although they might just have been trolls.
However i think it is like @KirkDuyt claims. Wilders has easy points to get behind. People are stuggling and cant afford the stuff they want to buy. Its easy to blame foreigners and Europe while also promise to take away money from projects against climate change, culture and ''woke'' things and give that money to those struggling people. It is a lot easier to sell that story than sell the story about how 'your taxmoney' has to go to other projects eventhough you are struggling to pay for the stuff you want.
Belgium is up next in June 2024. Vlaams Belang has a very social almost extreme left wing economical stance, combined with the far right rhetoric of blaming foreigners, woke... They'll become the biggest party in Flanders, by a distance. All other parties have already stated they won't govern with them, but it might have the exact opposite result, more and more people are voting for them.
Wishful thinking...
N-VA is doing exactly what VVD dit with PVV in The Netherlands. I reckon they'll have an absolute majority in Flanders so any other government but VB/N-VA would be a total farce like Vivaldi currently is.
Dreading it already.
Don't think it has much to do with Palestine/Israel. I think it's more to do with the failings of the VVD (+ D66 + CDA) over the past 10+ years. They've failed to prevent and/or solve several major issues in our society. Healthcare, cost of living, the housing market, immigration.. all major issues. Other parties have tried to address (some of) these issues but the sitting parties have structurally blocked their resolutions. This is especially apparent if you look at proposed resolutions for more funding for healthcare. My wife (who works as a HR advisor in healthcare) recently brought this to my attention. Generally all parties except the sitting ones were in favour but they were still shut down by the likes of VVD, D66 and CDA. Now the organization she works for (who run retirement homes) have to do budget cuts in the millions which means even more pressure on staff, even less people working the beds, etc.
NVA will never do it when you have the likes of De Winter and Van Langenhove connected to VB, and several others for that matter. I hope. It's a shit show, and it's happening all around the world.
People are punishing parties that have been part of the political establishment for decades. They have a point possibly, but a lot if not most problems are European or global problems, and aren't solved with voting extremist parties in power.
Just wait until climate crisis hits full force and in stead of thousands, billions of people will need to relocate.
Already cut ties with DVL I believe, in particular because N-VA indeed basically told them to.
Agree on the second paragraph. A big middle finger to the establishment is warranted and deserved if you look at how it's been the last few years in Belgium, but voting extreme right-wing (or left, for that matter) isn't the way to do that. I'm also firmly against people saying "just let them govern and then people will see they're also not capable", because they can feck up a lot of things in a very short period in power.
We'll be lucky to avoid full-blown fascism and concentration camps.
Voted PVDA ever since I was allowed to vote, so no difference yesterday. I have currently accepted that we are a right wing country and there is nothing we can do about it, so I'll just spread my cheeks again and take it up the arse for the next 4 years. At least Geert wants to fix the healthcare sector, that's a positive, right...?
Always on the left. I have been switching between GroenLinks, PvdA, and SP over the years, usually for strategic reasons, and doing the same this year made me end up with PvdA/GroenLinks, for the reason you stated. But with the other big parties being NSC, VVD, and PVV, a right-ist coalition looks more likely either way. From my perspective, I would just have to hope PvdA/GroenLinks becomes the biggest party and will have the first shot at creating a coalition, cause otherwise I can see them being left out.
It's funny actually: the Netherlands are internationally seen as a progressive country, but there has never been a progressive majority politically, and the left hasn't really been a major player ever since the purple coalitions of the 90s. But then I would anyway also have lots of comments to make on that progressive image, so that kinda fits.
Anyway, I'm curious what will happen post-elections. It was very hard to form a coalition last time round because of the splintering of parliament into dozens of parties, and even though there will most likely be more big parties this time round, they might still find it hard to create a coalition together. Dutch politics went through a series of mergers a long time ago, when the CDA and GroenLinks etc. were formed, and it looks like it's time for that again: BBB, NSC, and CDA might as well be together, same for PVV and FvD, a bunch of tiny parties could be merged into bigger ones, and of course GroenLinks and PvdA are doing it already. I know they all have their differences, and ChristenUnie has been doing alright lately as the final piece of coalition puzzles, but in terms of wielding political power, it really is helpful to be a bigger block together.
Let's tag a bunch of other people in the Netherlands as well: @BrilliantOrange, @Stadjer, @Rams, @Stanley Road, @Terranova, @Samoerai Jack, @Rapsel, @Eendracht maakt macht, @ArjenIsM3, @DutchSerb; maybe also @King Kendrick and @BenitoSTARR as avid Eredivisie followers.
I'd wait and see on that one. "Healthcare workers need better pay" is a very popular slogan since Covid-19 but once they're looking at the complete budget, you might hear something different.
I think VVD and NSC publicly stating they aren't shutting the door on PVV entirely in terms of a coalition made a whole lot of people vote on the PVV since it wouldn't be a 'useless' vote anymore.
If that's the case I might as well freelance too in the near future. Sad state we're in.
Pretty much it, too many years of Rubbish Rutte and this is what happens, it's brexit voting. But to beat wilders with an environmental stick is crazy, you only have to listen to Ruttes response about the garbage being spewed out by Tata steel on a daily basis to realise its all about economics. Despite kids being born with 2 heads and 3 arms in the surrounding area it was just too damaging to the economy to ask them to clean up.
Yeah, and I read that a lot of his growth in this election comes from people who considered voting for him in the past, but didn't because of strategic reasons.
@do.ob: That's because Rutte previously categorically excluded Wilders from any coalition considerations (due to issues with his 2012 government). With the VVD being the largest party for a long time, that was a guarantee that the PVV would be in the opposition, which made people think twice about voting for them. One of the first things Yesilgöz (the new VVD leader) said during this electoral campaign, is that this complete exclusion no longer applies because she wanted things to shift to the right. You could immediately see Wilders starting to rise in the polls after that. That was also at the expense of VVD votes, so Yesilgöz backtracked on this more recently, but still no categorical exclusion. And at that point, it was too late and you were probably seeing the bandwagon effect: people noticed the PVV climbing in the polls, heard from others that they were voting for them, then changed their minds themselves as well, and so on.
@KirkDuyt - I don't think you can simplify this as 'ignorant masses voting for populistic bullshit'. Well, yes to the latter, but I don't agree with the former as much. Over 20% of voters chose PVV: they're not all low-educated, low-income etc. For example, I'm sure you'll hear a lot of this anti-Islam and anti-immigration rhetoric in elitist student societies as well (korpsballen, yes). And VVD has been peddling xenophobic crap ever since Bolkestein as well (even if Rutte dialed that down a bit).
Also, I'll get my hobby horse out of its stable once again, and will suggest that part of why this simplistic nonsense works ('no more immigrants and all your problems will disappear - geen gezeik, iedereen rijk!') is because leftist parties haven't much cared for the financial troubles of 'ordinary people' in a long time, and so without other ideas being promoted, these populist 'solutions' get a chance to become popular. (And of course, they connect well with existing nationalist and xenophobic notions.) But you can easily be a populist leftist as well: '1% of the population owns whatever % of its wealth, make them pay!' The SP does a bit of that, but doesn't have much traction. Time for PvdA/GL to get on board with that as well - but I think they've just permanently drifted off to the centre (and this was never really a GroenLinks concern anyway).
That's fair enough. One of my friends who is a highly educated and successful lawyer actually votes PVV and has done so for the past 3 elections. He's been brought up as a posh cnut with wealthy parents though, so I suppose it's that. I do think the left's problem has always been that they're not always entirely in touch with their supposed base. I'm on a 80 hour podcast binge on the Russian revolution and for all the talk of standing up for the working man, when Bakunin and his dudes who had never seen a days hard work in their life did their "Going to the people" thing, the people said, who the feck are you?
Frans Timmermans ofcourse oozes this whole, left wing rethoric while being an elitist rich old white man thing which definitely doesn't help. Still, fighting populism with populism just feels wrong. And I think right wing ideas will always be easier to successfully populist than left wing ideas.
Guess our only option at this point is a new Russian revolution
There's a categorical refusal to work with the AfD in Germany too. But I'm not sure it's actually sustainable in a democracy to ignore the (second) largest party. Because if you ignore 20%-25% (or more?) of the vote, then you'll have to find a majority within the remaining 75% and that means having to forge coalitions that don't really belong together ideologically, which means huge compromise on basically every issue and very few election promises getting delivered. All the while the RW populists will have the easiest time in opposition, going on about how they were cheated out of their mandate to govern and how the government doesn't get anything meaningful done.
But, of course, on the other hand you can't really help the populists into government either.
Regarding your last paragraph: I think that much is obvious. It's like the left would rather preach from an ivory tower than get their hands dirty in government. I mean most of the issues are probably well reasoned in an academic sense, but when you look at some of the central topics of left wing politics it they probably look like luxury problems (or worse) to working class people. And as I said in another thread: the absolute essence of that disconnect is harassing regular folk on their way to work.
Wilders himself looks as though he’s inhaled all the poisonous fumes from the Tata steel plant.
I already noticed something has changed when I got to the office this morning and all the colleagues were dressed in brown uniforms with red, white and black arm bands.
Mozart
Maybe, but from what I've seen in elections around the world is that (far) right parties are just much better in getting their message across on social media, and media in general. It's obviously much easier to bring forward a populist opinion. Left wing parties in Belgium have done atrocious in that regard last couple of years, and that's coming from someone who has and will always vote leftThat's fair enough. One of my friends who is a highly educated and successful lawyer actually votes PVV and has done so for the past 3 elections. He's been brought up as a posh cnut with wealthy parents though, so I suppose it's that. I do think the left's problem has always been that they're not always entirely in touch with their supposed base. I'm on a 80 hour podcast binge on the Russian revolution and for all the talk of standing up for the working man, when Bakunin and his dudes who had never seen a days hard work in their life did their "Going to the people" thing, the people said, who the feck are you?
Frans Timmermans ofcourse oozes this whole, left wing rethoric while being an elitist rich old white man thing which definitely doesn't help. Still, fighting populism with populism just feels wrong. And I think right wing ideas will always be easier to successfully populist than left wing ideas.
Guess our only option at this point is a new Russian revolution
Well, the PVV wasn't quite as big before, but yeah, still a sizeable party (always easily over 10% of seats I think), and the Netherlands have seen some non-intuitive coalitions the past decade, cause as you say/imply, once you exclude a good part of the right, you're limited to coalitions of otherwise unlikely partners.
Fur volk und Vaterland
Not this election no, however historically the PVV does get their votes from low income and practical (not low educated, that sounds mean and makes them feel undervalued) educated voters. I always found it a weird kind of funny that anti Islam party PVV would get the majority of their votes from areas where hardly any muslim people live. However the current immigration problems within Europe have caused that anti Islam and anti immigration has become more accepted. Yesterday a political sience researcher from the University said on the tv that the PVV is still a extreme right party but society has become a lot harder. That wasnt acceptable before and it is acceptable now. If you said you dislike immigrant or Muslim people before, people would look at you funny while now you can say it in public and nobody really cares.
Oh and yes ofcourse the woman got called a leftist bitch with crooked teeth on Twitter/X and such afterwards... that is normal too now.
A tad off topic but not really as it's related. Started watching the 3rd season of Party Down recently (comedy about caterers in LA). The 3rd episode was very much related to the current political climate and social media like the person in the image above takes advantage off. It's a comedy but it's actually social commentary on how the far right and alt right manipulate the narrative and utilize social media to get to, like @KirkDuyt mentions, the common man.
Who cares, she's hot
A tad off topic but not really as it's related. Started watching the 3rd season of Party Down recently (comedy about caterers in LA). The 3rd episode was very much related to the current political climate and social media like the person in the image above takes advantage off. It's a comedy but it's actually social commentary on how the far right and alt right manipulate the narrative and utilize social media to get to, like @KirkDuyt mentions, the common man.
She would walk around with a shaved head if it were 1945. First name checks out too. White supremacist nazi cnut.
A tad off topic but not really as it's related. Started watching the 3rd season of Party Down recently (comedy about caterers in LA). The 3rd episode was very much related to the current political climate and social media like the person in the image above takes advantage off. It's a comedy but it's actually social commentary on how the far right and alt right manipulate the narrative and utilize social media to get to, like @KirkDuyt mentions, the common man.
Pardon my French. These elections have embittered me a bit.
What about Next.
I can take some solace in the fact that I'm clearly superior to such a substantial part of our population. I do enjoy feeling intelligent.
Though I wonder what these people will do after they realize Geert wont actually be able to ban mosques and brown immigrants.
In terms of looks it's more like he was a successful musician in the 70s.
There's even pictures of him with his guitar.
The irritating part is also that so many of it is plain wrong - not just as a matter of opinion, but as a matter of fact. As it happens, I got this book review in Nature Briefing just today:Maybe, but from what I've seen in elections around the world is that (far) right parties are just much better in getting their message across on social media, and media in general. It's obviously much easier to bring forward a populist opinion. Left wing parties in Belgium have done atrocious in that regard last couple of years, and that's coming from someone who has and will always vote left
Migration isn’t increasing, border restrictions don’t reduce crossings — and other home truths (nature.com)
As the title shows (and it's explained in more detail in the review), this book is about the topic of migration, and how a lot of common opinions about it, and hence the general political rhetoric, is actually quite wrong. As the review indicates, there are some issues with the book, but overall, there is plenty of ammuniation for people who want to counter the immigration-as-the-mother-of-all-evil narrative and want to refocus the debate. But yeah, that's not happening either (and I know countering fake news is very difficult).
Play Claudia de Breij on repeat
Mostly stupidity. Partly those ‘scary foreigners’, partly ‘well maybe he can fix it!’ and ‘anything better than the left!’.
Which is ironic given the fact that the left hasn’t had a say in this country for ages and yet people blame govermental failings on them and keep electing the exact same people who are responsible for those failings in the first place.
Selling simplistic ideas to complex problems works wonders.
Yes, damn the Dutch and their quest for a white ethno state!
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First Argentina now Netherlands, depressing times.
Loads of non-caucasian people voted for the PVV too.
I still have plenty enough of integrity to not stick my d*ck into crazy.
When you classes the biggest share of population as dumb, lower educated, racist, etc.
That'll vindicate them even more to vote against you, just to spite you.
I just think the current political climate is worsening there's not even a sane middle ground for anything. You either a full left or a full right and nothing in between
That'll vindicate them even more to vote against you, just to spite you.
I just think the current political climate is worsening there's not even a sane middle ground for anything. You either a full left or a full right and nothing in between
I was thinking it might actually be lucky that Omtzigt created his new party now. If Wilders is in any coalition, it will include the NSC, and the one thing Omtzigt will absolutely demand is sound processes and legitimate decisions. That might be an important factor in preventing Wilders from going nuts on some of his worst Islamophobic ant anti-immigration ideas. I don't think the VVD would do as much to stop that, and without Omtzigt, probably the BBB would have had those 20 seats, and they wouldn't have had the same scruples either (plus they'd deliver a lot of seats in the senate).
Trying to find positives!
That's not to say that Dutch society isn't polarized at all, but I don't think it's reflected all that much in its political landscape.
Trying to find positives!
That doesn't actually apply to the Netherlands, cause there's still a pretty sizeable centre. NSC and CDA are pretty centrist parties (leaning right a little), as is D66 (maybe leaning a little more left), PvdA/GroenLinks is really just centre left, and the VVD under Rutte was pretty centre right (but not as much right now). Even the BBB isn't a radical party; outside their stronger points on nitrogen emissions management, they're a lot like the CDA and NSC; and on the left you've got parties like Volt and PvdD that aren't quite that much out there either. You could disagree on how far left or right from the centre these parties are exactly, but they are certainly not the product of a polarized society. They rather reflect the splintering of the Dutch electorate, where you got parties for a ton of specific issues now (and who largely just copy other parties beyond that). You could talk about polarization for Wilders and the SP maybe, or for ChristenUnie and the SGP in a religious sense (and Denk?), but their further rightist and leftist positions are far older than the current climate of polarization - of which Baudet's FvD is really the main exponent in the Netherlands, and he's commonly seen as a nutter.
That's not to say that Dutch society isn't polarized at all, but I don't think it's reflected all that much in its political landscape.