I very rarely win. I'm already looking at tomorrows games to see what to plonk what's left in my account on. Don't know whether to just go safe and boring and do a single or double or just go all out 4-5 team acca 
Football Betting Thread 13/14
- Thread starter Brwned
- Start date
thats what I fancy this week. Anybody got a good tip?I very rarely win. I'm already looking at tomorrows games to see what to plonk what's left in my account on. Don't know whether to just go safe and boring and do a single or double or just go all out 4-5 team acca
Keep it for the weekend, isn't much value tomorrow in my opinion. All favourites are low priced. Barcelona at 4/6 is good value given Athletico are weaker, Barca started great and Martino will want to win a trophy.
Very early in the season for results. Always shitty ones thrown in. Look at Wigan tonight id say lots of people started off their acca's tonight with them
Goalscorers are a safer market at the moment. RVP was evens against Swansea. 6/1 to score two.
Goalscorers are a safer market at the moment. RVP was evens against Swansea. 6/1 to score two.
Beats the hell out of my fund's return.
I've put 20 on Fulham to beat Arsenal at Craven Cottage.
Does anyone know if bet365 has an option to bet "draw either at HT or FT" ? I can't seem to find it.
They had it on Bwin, and I used it quite a lot in tight games quite successfully.
They had it on Bwin, and I used it quite a lot in tight games quite successfully.
I had Aston Villa to beat Arsenal at 7/1 on Saturday and they turned out to be well worth their victory. Everything pointed to a good chance of an upset; Arsenal were depleted by injuries, they had no big summer signings on board, talk of restlessness within the fanbase (which was always going to produce a negative atmosphere at the ground) and Villa had actually strengthened their squad, as well as possessing a front three capable of haunting that porous Arsenal defence.
However, I'm trying to see how Villa can replicate that tonight against Chelsea and I'm not as optimistic. Chelsea have no injury concerns, they've strengthened their squad adequately over the summer, there's a huge feel-good factor at Stamford Bridge with the return of Mourinho and I feel Chelsea's defence aren't as susceptible to the counter-attack like Arsenal are. I normally look for value in the underdog (even if I see a team as being a 3/1 shot and the bookies have them at 5/1, I'll have a punt out of value), and Villa at 9/1 on paper look to be a little bit of value, but I cannot say with absolute conviction this time around in contrast to Saturday.
What does appeal from a Villa point-of-view is their away record. They have only lost 4 of their last 15 Premier League away games (against United, City, Chelsea and Arsenal) so their record on the road is quite good. I backed them a good few times away from Villa Park last season and got some nice prices on them (wins versus Sunderland, Liverpool, Norwich and twice two last minute goals cost me big prices when Everton and Swansea scored in injury-time).
Villa carry a genuine goal threat with Benteke, Wiemann and Agbonlahor and Chelsea allowed Hull a few chances on Sunday. You'd fancy Villa to nick a goal if presented the same, but the question is whether they can restrict Chelsea to half-chances down the other end? Villa's midfield is full of vigour and enthusiasm and I think they'll get in Chelsea's faces a bit in this middle third. Look at how aggressive they were in the tackle against Wilshere and co. on Saturday.
I'll have a (small) cautious punt on Villa at 9/1 and a little more on them in the +2 handicap betting at 10/11. Hoping for a good entertaining game anyway, which it should be.
However, I'm trying to see how Villa can replicate that tonight against Chelsea and I'm not as optimistic. Chelsea have no injury concerns, they've strengthened their squad adequately over the summer, there's a huge feel-good factor at Stamford Bridge with the return of Mourinho and I feel Chelsea's defence aren't as susceptible to the counter-attack like Arsenal are. I normally look for value in the underdog (even if I see a team as being a 3/1 shot and the bookies have them at 5/1, I'll have a punt out of value), and Villa at 9/1 on paper look to be a little bit of value, but I cannot say with absolute conviction this time around in contrast to Saturday.
What does appeal from a Villa point-of-view is their away record. They have only lost 4 of their last 15 Premier League away games (against United, City, Chelsea and Arsenal) so their record on the road is quite good. I backed them a good few times away from Villa Park last season and got some nice prices on them (wins versus Sunderland, Liverpool, Norwich and twice two last minute goals cost me big prices when Everton and Swansea scored in injury-time).
Villa carry a genuine goal threat with Benteke, Wiemann and Agbonlahor and Chelsea allowed Hull a few chances on Sunday. You'd fancy Villa to nick a goal if presented the same, but the question is whether they can restrict Chelsea to half-chances down the other end? Villa's midfield is full of vigour and enthusiasm and I think they'll get in Chelsea's faces a bit in this middle third. Look at how aggressive they were in the tackle against Wilshere and co. on Saturday.
I'll have a (small) cautious punt on Villa at 9/1 and a little more on them in the +2 handicap betting at 10/11. Hoping for a good entertaining game anyway, which it should be.
You could just put half the stakes each on both options. You'll have a chance of winning both options so it's a far better bet in my opinion.
I'd fancy both teams to score in the Chelsea/Villa game at least (evens), but I fancy Chelsea to swing it by the odd goal. Can't see Villa winning, but I wouldn't be hugely surprised if they scraped a draw either. What's everyone's thoughts on:
Arsenal
Barcelona
Chelsea/Villa BTS
(Better than 8/1)
Or, if you have little faith in Arsenal, maybe go for the draw there (11/1 in that treble)?
Arsenal
Barcelona
Chelsea/Villa BTS
(Better than 8/1)
Or, if you have little faith in Arsenal, maybe go for the draw there (11/1 in that treble)?
Where's the self-slapping smiley?
Thanks!Although, it'd still be nice to have the option for accumulators.
I'm thinking of this accy
Chelsea v Villa (Chelsea win)
City v Cardiff (City win)
Everton v West Brom (Everton win)
Southampton v Sunderland (Southampton win)
Newcastle v West Ham (West Ham win)
@£81 return off a £5 bet
Thoughts?
Chelsea v Villa (Chelsea win)
City v Cardiff (City win)
Everton v West Brom (Everton win)
Southampton v Sunderland (Southampton win)
Newcastle v West Ham (West Ham win)
@£81 return off a £5 bet
Thoughts?
West Ham is your doubtful one there, icz. The other four homes look to have more than a fair chance.
Anyone who thinks it will be close, Villa plus 2 is evens.
Villa on the +1.5 handicap looks tempting in my opinion. It's a Mourinho's team, so I don't see them conceding much goals, and I've doubts on their attack, apart from Lampard, they don't tend to go for goal much.
Think it'll be 1-0 or 2-0.
Agreed, Newcastle seem all over the place at the moment and with injuries and suspensions I fancy the hammers.
Aye, Newcastle look a shambles at present. Will Cabaye play tonight I wonder?
Also, you can't underestimate the 'Allardyce' factor. I'm sure he'll be well up for it tonight against his old club, as will Kevin Nolan. West Ham are usually better at home though so it remains to be seen how they'll approach tonight. They don't strike you as being the best counter-attacking side in the world. If they score, you'll suspect it'll be from a set-piece of some sort.
Also, you can't underestimate the 'Allardyce' factor. I'm sure he'll be well up for it tonight against his old club, as will Kevin Nolan. West Ham are usually better at home though so it remains to be seen how they'll approach tonight. They don't strike you as being the best counter-attacking side in the world. If they score, you'll suspect it'll be from a set-piece of some sort.
Yeah had a tenner on it £162 return. Hopefully I can follow up on the success from my previous accy with Southamptons late show.
Actually, I forgot they signed Downing. Himself and Jarvis on the wings is pretty good, and they'll cause the Newcastle defence some problems.
Any other tips for tonight? Oohing and ah-ing over this:
Arsenal @ 7/5
Aston Villa (+2) @ 10/11
Barcelona @ 8/11
Dinamo Zagreb @ 7/10
Schalke @ 2/5
@£188 from £10
Arsenal @ 7/5
Aston Villa (+2) @ 10/11
Barcelona @ 8/11
Dinamo Zagreb @ 7/10
Schalke @ 2/5
@£188 from £10
Just so you know, i read earlier that Huntelaar was out for Schalke, if that makes a difference to you.
It does actually but I'd still fancy Schalke to edge it at home...
but I'd still fancy Schalke to edge it at home...Oh also, can anyone explain how a +2 bet works? I understand - handicap bets but i'm unsure how Havaks bet of Aston Villa +2 works.
It's just the other way around. Add 2 goals to Villa from the start. So for example if they lose 1:0, your bet still wins, since according to your bet it's 1:2.
If you select the (+2) handicapped team you win if the team wins or draws. You also win if they lose by one goal. If they lose by two goals your stake is refunded.
Latter part makes it even more tempting haha not sure if I believe it though!
Ah ok, that makes sense now. Thank you gentlemen!
I thought if it ended 0-2, you lost, as basically, +2 would make it a draw? :s
It's the refund bit that I don't get. On William Hill, what if Chelsea won 2-0, 3-0 or 4-0. An explanation would help, as I understand the concept just not what happens with those outcomes.
Edit: I thought the same as ONO.
Edit: I thought the same as ONO.
That's what I initially thought, but that was in some 'Handicapped Betting Explained' article...
Either way, I think it's still a decent shout for tonight (thanks Spiersey).
I would assume you lose if Villa lose 2-0 for instance...
Paddy's Example:
Example
Manchester United (-2.0) 10/11 v Wolves (+2.0) 5/6
You are probably wondering what that all means. Let us explain it to you.
In this example, the bookmaker is giving Wolves a 2 goal ‘head start’ in this match. That is represented by the ‘-2.0’ against Manchester United and the ‘+2.0’ against Wolves.
The figures next to the handicap are the odds in decimal form. Manchester United’s odds of 1.93 are equivalent to ‘0.93 to 1’ or about 10/11. Wolves’ odds of 1.88 are equivalent to ‘0.88 to 1’ or about 5/6.
You therefore place your stake on either side to win at those odds.
If you put £10 on Manchester United at 1.93 and they win by three goals or more, you win. If United win by two goals, your stake will generally be refunded (unless the “Handicap Draw” option is available). If United win by one goal, you lose (as this market gave Wolves a 2 goal head start, so Wolves ‘win’ 2-1). Again, if the match is a draw or Wolves win the match, you lose.
If you put £10 on Wolves at 1.88 and they win the match, if it is a draw, or United win by one goal, you win. If United win by two goals, your stake will generally be refunded (again, unless the “Handicap Draw” option is available). If United win by three or more goals, you lose.
Either way, I think it's still a decent shout for tonight (thanks Spiersey).
I would assume you lose if Villa lose 2-0 for instance...
Paddy's Example:
Example
Manchester United (-2.0) 10/11 v Wolves (+2.0) 5/6
You are probably wondering what that all means. Let us explain it to you.
In this example, the bookmaker is giving Wolves a 2 goal ‘head start’ in this match. That is represented by the ‘-2.0’ against Manchester United and the ‘+2.0’ against Wolves.
The figures next to the handicap are the odds in decimal form. Manchester United’s odds of 1.93 are equivalent to ‘0.93 to 1’ or about 10/11. Wolves’ odds of 1.88 are equivalent to ‘0.88 to 1’ or about 5/6.
You therefore place your stake on either side to win at those odds.
If you put £10 on Manchester United at 1.93 and they win by three goals or more, you win. If United win by two goals, your stake will generally be refunded (unless the “Handicap Draw” option is available). If United win by one goal, you lose (as this market gave Wolves a 2 goal head start, so Wolves ‘win’ 2-1). Again, if the match is a draw or Wolves win the match, you lose.
If you put £10 on Wolves at 1.88 and they win the match, if it is a draw, or United win by one goal, you win. If United win by two goals, your stake will generally be refunded (again, unless the “Handicap Draw” option is available). If United win by three or more goals, you lose.
Most bookies do the handicap draw so you won't get your bet refunded. You won't get Villa +2 at even money unless its a win only market (no refunds)
Is it a good or a bad thing that I backed Ivanovich to be next goalscorer with a fiver at 30/1 once he didn't get sent off?
Wish I'd thought of that, it was bound to happen. I even said it out loud watching the game, although my stream was a fair bit behind, so he'd have probably scored before I could make the bet!
Schalke screwed me on my bets (as well as Dinamo on another). If Villa got the draw they deserved and Schalke could have won it, I'd be on for £340 now...
Got one bet left, had Chelsea/Villa BTS, Arsenal, and Barca for a tenner. If Barca win I come out with £86~ or so, which won't be too bad.
I do it quite often, very rarely comes up. I had Schzeny to save Benteke's pen after not getting sent off at the weekend. It is really weird how often these things happen though.
Still a little miffed that Villa didn't get the three points tonight. The referee bottled the two major decisions, which unsurprisingly favoured Chelsea. Villa had the much better chances in the second half and could have nicked it on another night. Still, the +2 handicap bet came in so happy enough, although it could have been a far more fruitful night.
Stuck a tenner on Barcelona to win -2 and -2 corners. £150 back if it comes in.
FFS, I had Chelsea HT/Draw FT @ 20-1, which came out the other way round. Also had Benteke to score first and Chelsea to win 3-1 @ 175-1 which would of come off due to the OG
Spurs, Swansea, betis, Sevilla and Udinese tonight.
I may well copy that bet Spiersey. Although i only have £3 in my account and that'll return £17.
I did copy it in the end. If i lose then i'll start thinking about using a different site for betting, i only joined SkyBet because a mate (who is no longer a mate) recommended it. It has weird card and corner markets on it from what i can see too.
It turns out its actually St etienne I have on instead of Sevilla! That would have brought the odds up a fair bit! If you like corners and cards I'd go for Bet365. If you want a nice layout then go for WilliamHill.