Football Betting Thread 15/16

[Sarni]

Atletico v Astana is a complete certainty tonight, aren't they? 14% return seems good so I'd maybe put a rather large amount of money on it. Atletico's record is outrageous at home in Europe (W21 D3 L1 in the last 3 years) so Astana should be a walk for them.

I'd put this together with Man City or X, 1.14 multiplier and I can't really see Sevilla winning there. Draw is possibility but win seems like a huge stretch. Put together they give me 30% return so on top of Wii U I will have a couple of good games. Definitely withdrawing after this. Normally I wouldn't bother with another bet since I have already reached my target but since I am stuck at work working 3 hours overtime and cannot pick up Wii U today anyway, and I still haven't withdrawn the money because I haven't got the time, then putting it on something reasonably safe seems fine.

 

[Baxter]

Looking at the weekend, Nice look a very good price at GFC

 

[Sarni]

Atletico I will definitely be on tomorrow although this is only as a multiplier since I consider it sure money. Other than that I'm tempted by United but will most likely go DNB as we can't really lose there but might not win, Wolfsburg v PSV is tempting - I don't rate PSV at all - but odds are awful. PSG v Real Madrid is tough to call and Shakhtar are not very good so Malmo could get something out of this game. City v Sevilla should be home win but with City's European record you never know. Juve v Gladbach is a skip, likewise Galatasaray v Benfica.

Don't want to boast but I've pretty much nailed it. Wolfsburg comfortable win, so was Atletico, City won after hard fight, Malmo got a win, Juventus was definitely a skip and Galatasaray's win was not predictable.

Tonight I'm on a bigger acca:

Fiorentina to beat Lech Poznań - Lech are awful, last in the league in Poland with 1 win out of 13 games
Basel to beat Belenenses - huge gulf in quality
Monaco to beat Qarabag - much better team and Azerbaijani football while improved is much worse
Liverpool not to lose to Rubin - low odds as multiplier
Dortmund to beat Qabala - huge gulf in quality

In total it comes up as 4/1. Decent.

 

[Spiersey]

Nothing I massively fancy for tonight but will have a bet on Plzen +0.5 tonight if line ups are okay. Watched everyone of Rapid Vienna's games this season and started the season unreal with Beric. He was sold and they've struggled since. Massively out of form, play the most open attacking football ever and can't defend. Struggling to score goals now this season. Haven't had a chance to see more than two of Plzen's games this season as stopped following the league properly. If their line up is decent I'll definitely be on/

 

[Spiersey]

Nothing I massively fancy for tonight but will have a bet on Plzen +0.5 tonight if line ups are okay. Watched everyone of Rapid Vienna's games this season and started the season unreal with Beric. He was sold and they've struggled since. Massively out of form, play the most open attacking football ever and can't defend. Struggling to score goals now this season. Haven't had a chance to see more than two of Plzen's games this season as stopped following the league properly. If their line up is decent I'll definitely be on/

Very happy with lineups, had just over a small sized bet on.

 

[Spiersey]

Got money on Club brugge SW at 1.8 as well as clean sheet at 2.62.

 

[Baxter]

Dynamo Dresden and Nice tomorrow. Might look for goals too.

 

[Joemo]

Bet365 doing the £50 offer on the Manchester derby too.

Got money on Club brugge SW at 1.8 as well as clean sheet at 2.62.

Where and why did this go wrong?

 

[NextSeason]

Bet365 doing the £50 offer on the Manchester derby too.

Does this still work when you bet on a FGS who won't play?

For tomorrow I'm thinking of a little flutter on:

Stoke
Bayern -2
Oxford -1
Celta vs Real - Over 2.5 goals
Jamie Vardy anytime

37/1

 

[Joemo]

Does this still work when you bet on a FGS who won't play?

Should do but they've really wised up on it now; you only get a few minutes, if that, between the official line-up being released and those not in the squad being taken off the list. For the Arsenal-Bayern match you could have gambled on the Robben out rumours, and for the last deal on United only Herrera was eligible to "cheat" the deal.

 

[Scarecrow]

Does this still work when you bet on a FGS who won't play?

Yes. I did it in the Arsenal - Bayern game.

Should do but they've really wised up on it now; you only get a few minutes, if that, between the official line-up being released and those not in the squad being taken off the list. For the Arsenal-Bayern match you could have gambled on the Robben out rumours, and for the last deal on United only Herrera was eligible to "cheat" the deal.

You don't have to put the bet after the line-ups are released. There's always someone that you're fairly sure won't play or be a late sub, at best. For the Arsenal - Bayern game Robben didn't even travel with the team, so it was a pretty sure thing. Now it's a bit trickier, but still, there are the likes of Man Utd Garcia, Delph, Demichelis - all unlikely to be on the pitch when the first goal is scored.

 

[Joemo]

Is Delph still injured? He's on that list.

 

[NextSeason]

Should do but they've really wised up on it now; you only get a few minutes, if that, between the official line-up being released and those not in the squad being taken off the list. For the Arsenal-Bayern match you could have gambled on the Robben out rumours, and for the last deal on United only Herrera was eligible to "cheat" the deal.

I see.

Correct me if I'm wrong but people were betting on a FGS that they knew/hoped wouldn't play, having a risk-free in play bet of the same stake and then receiving refunds for both bets (unless your in play bet won), right?

 

[Spiersey]

Bet365 doing the £50 offer on the Manchester derby too.


Where and why did this go wrong?

No idea, stats were ridiculous at half time so simply had to take the bet at those prices. Wins more than it loses given the odds and stats. Thankfully not big stakes as Europa League and very unpredictable. Plzen was an annoying loss, should have took overs in hindsight but would take Plzen again given the team news.

 

[Scarecrow]

Correct me if I'm wrong but people were betting on a FGS that they knew/hoped wouldn't play, having a risk-free in play bet of the same stake and then receiving refunds for both bets (unless your in play bet won), right?

Correct.

 

[Scarecrow]

Is Delph still injured? He's on that list.

Meanwhile, across Manchester, City boss Manuel Pellegrini has confirmed he will be without a handful of important first-team players. "The list of injured players is the same from the last game," he told reporters.

"It is David Silva, Sergio Aguero, Samir Nasri, Fabian Delph and Gael Clichy. Nobody will come back this week; maybe next week one or two players can start working with the team, but not yet."

From manutd.com

 

[NextSeason]

Correct.

Cheers. I'm probably going to have a go.

Delph seems like a banker surely.

 

[Bubz27]

Stoke to beat Watford at home is 2.10. I'll be on that tomorrow.

 

[WR]

Think I'll attempt the £50 free bet for Bet365 on Sunday. I vaguely remember reading something about the withdraw conditions for Bet365 being a bit misleading in regards to the free bet winnings?

 

[carvajal]

Stoke to beat Watford at home is 2.10. I'll be on that tomorrow.

Why?

 

[NextSeason]

Think I'll attempt the £50 free bet for Bet365 on Sunday. I vaguely remember reading something about the withdraw conditions for Bet365 being a bit misleading in regards to the free bet winnings?

It's not a free bet, it's a risk free bet so you place the bet with your own money and then it's refunded if you lose only. So all the winnings will be 'real' and you'll need £100 in your account to start with.

 

[BobbyManc]

Think I'll attempt the £50 free bet for Bet365 on Sunday. I vaguely remember reading something about the withdraw conditions for Bet365 being a bit misleading in regards to the free bet winnings?

Not to my knowledge, never had any problem withdrawing it straight after a win. The withdraw conditions having certain restrictions tend to only apply when they give you a free bet (as in you do not actually deposit any of your own cash, or they match a deposit or a percentage of it as a free bet). Make sure you read the T&C's though just to be on the safe side.

 

[Tarrou]

Morecambe look a nice price at home to beat Orient tomorrow at 16/5. Won 3 on the bounce scoring lots of goals and Orient have only won one in ten. Morecambe-Draw also looks solid at 10/11 if you want a lower variance option.

 

[Bubz27]

Why?

Stoke have won their last 4. Watford haven't won in 3. Stoke should be too strong for them, especially at home. Not a huge stake but the odds are good enough to put something decent on there.

 

[carvajal]

Stoke have won their last 4. Watford haven't won in 3. Stoke should be too strong for them, especially at home. Not a huge stake but the odds are good enough to put something decent on there.

Thanks, good explanation, I think that I´ll copy you

Morecambe look a nice price at home to beat Orient tomorrow at 16/5. Won 3 on the bounce scoring lots of goals and Orient have only won one in ten. Morecambe-Draw also looks solid at 10/11 if you want a lower variance option.

So,3.8 if Morecambe wins. Why is so well paid playing at home?, in the board they are 6th and 7th.

 

[Bubz27]

Thanks, good explanation, I think that I´ll copy you

So,3.8 if Morecambe wins. Why is so well paid playing at home?, in the board they are 6th and 7th.

Let's hope we're both happy tomorrow then.

 

[Tarrou]

So,3.8 if Morecambe wins. Why is so well paid playing at home?, in the board they are 6th and 7th.

No idea why it's so high, the price really stood out when I checked the betting earlier so I posted it here. I've looked to see if there are any injury/suspension issues for Morecambe, and there isn't. They are set to field the same starting 11 as midweek.

 

[carvajal]

No idea why it's so high, the price really stood out when I checked the betting earlier so I posted it here. I've looked to see if there are any injury/suspension issues for Morecambe, and there isn't. They are set to field the same starting 11 as midweek.

In that case I will also copy you

 

[20solskjaer]

Morecambe now 4.2 at bet365

 

[Baxter]

Citadella look good in the Italian Lega Pro A. Purely based on form a league position but 1.83 seems generous.

Just had a look and although they are away I'm taking that. They play AlbinoLeffe who are bottom having lost 6 out of 7. The only game the have won was against the team who have lost every game this season.

 

[DocRockter]

Stoke to beat Watford at home is 2.10. I'll be on that tomorrow.

Stoke also has Walters,Diouf and Shawcross coming back from injuries so the Potters will be my base as well.

 

[20solskjaer]

Citadella look good in the Italian Lega Pro A. Purely based on form a league position but 1.83 seems generous.

Just had a look and although they are away I'm taking that. They play AlbinoLeffe who are bottom having lost 6 out of 7. The only game the have won was against the team who have lost every game this season.

How can they be bottom if they won a game against a team that has lost 7 of 7?

 

[Baxter]

How can they be bottom if they won a game against a team that has lost 7 of 7?

Confused myself writing that when I was tired. Second bottom. Only team they have beat is last having lost all their matches.

 

[ItsEssexRob]

For those who are interested ive had uxnder 3.5 goals in the blaclburn burnley game its 0-0 after 20 mins.

 

[Slevs]

Stoke win
Norwich/WBA draw
Leicester vs Palace BTTS
Man Utd win
Liverpool win
Arsenal win
Barcelona win
Juventus win

123/1

Meh.

 

[ItsEssexRob]

Anyone think backing Villa not to lose is a good idea? They surely cant keep losing continuously and now seems a good enough time for them to at least get a point.

 

[jderbyshire]

Stoke to beat Watford at 11/10 seems generous...

as does QPR to beat MK Dons at Evens.

 

[ItsEssexRob]

Stoke to beat Watford at 11/10 seems generous...

as does QPR to beat MK Dons at Evens.

Watford been quite handy though and stoke have won a few in a row.. they are due not to win one.

 

[Member 5225]

Watford been quite handy though and stoke have won a few in a row.. they are due not to win one.

yep agreed with this

 

[izec]

Stoke - Watford screams for a draw.