Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

[Spiersey]

How do you find these? awesome...

odds slashed from 2.6 to 2.0 now

I follow the competition the entire season, it’s probably my fave competition for betting. I know the level of all the teams just from watching all the games. Salzburg fair price was 1.8 even if Lyon were full strength, so really nice bet on paper with all of Lyon best players missing.

Salzburg have been huge value all season as the games are priced a bit due to the level of the first teams initially. Salzburg youth academy is probably in the top 5 in Europe now, great system with them being groomed at Liefering now.

Should say that match fitness is in our favour too, with Liefering season not being long finished, Salzburg should be decent fitness. Lyon players won’t have played competitively since March. Benfica had the same issue today and they were really poor first 20 and they tired massively the final 20 minutes too.

 

[Danny Roberts]

I am v sweet on Timo Werner to top score in EPL next season. He’s 14/1 with Hills and here’s why he’s a good bet:

• Aged 24 and reaching peak performance
• Lampard is creating a team to play to his strengths / goals
• Won’t be rotated much
• 2nd behind Lewandowski last season in Bundesliga
• Playing for a v attack minded team who are also signing Havertz!!!
• On penalties

Just think the price is too big based on the above.

 

[Rasendori]

I am v sweet on Timo Werner to top score in EPL next season. He’s 14/1 with Hills and here’s why he’s a good bet:

• Aged 24 and reaching peak performance
• Lampard is creating a team to play to his strengths / goals
• Won’t be rotated much
• 2nd behind Lewandowski last season in Bundesliga
• Playing for a v attack minded team who are also signing Havertz!!!
• On penalties

Just think the price is too big based on the above.

- Interesting. Salah is the only foreign player I can think of that managed to be top goal scorer in his first EPL season.
- The second bullet point remains to be seen. Werner predominantly played in a two striker system, either playing with Schick or Poulson. It would be familiar territory for Werner if Lampard played him alongside Abraham or Giroud. But that's unlikely.
- The one time he started in a 4-2-3-1 system(Chelsea's most deployed) he played as a left inside forward scoring two goals. The coach favoring the hold up play of Schick to play #9. The left inside forward is in my view his best position in Chelsea's current set up as he's more of a second striker/inside forward. His role in a two man strike force is closer to that of Robben's role in LVG's 3-5-2 system for Netherlands in 2014. The trouble is Pulisic is at his best on the left. So it'll be interesting to see how Lampard goes about getting the best of Werner. Germany have struggled to find a system which mirrors his form at club level.
- From 2009/10 to 16/17 the winner was typically a player that favored a playing style which Werner struggles with. Since then, the winners share some of the strengths which Werner possesses. So there's that.

Great odds.

 

[ROFLUTION]

I am v sweet on Timo Werner to top score in EPL next season. He’s 14/1 with Hills and here’s why he’s a good bet:

• Aged 24 and reaching peak performance
• Lampard is creating a team to play to his strengths / goals
• Won’t be rotated much
• 2nd behind Lewandowski last season in Bundesliga
• Playing for a v attack minded team who are also signing Havertz!!!
• On penalties

Just think the price is too big based on the above.

Just playing devils advocate here, but a lot of defenders in Premier League are very tall / physical.
That might be tough for him. Has had good opponents for Germany too, but hasn't yet become the new Klose there.

Anyways 14/1 is quite a lot, and if he just scores on half the chances Abraham has wasted this season he'll be within distance. If Havertz do come, then I'm not sure Werner will score as much, as he'll get rotated more. Chelsea are stacked in attack, and also need to give time to Ziyech, Pulisic, Hudson-Odoi, Mount, Abraham and possibly Giroud.

Will Werner be on penalties for Chelsea? I guess Jorginho isn't starting much, but wouldn't he be the safe choice?

 

[Spiersey]

On Salzburg u19s win tomorrow at 2.3. Think 1.4/5 is fair. Lyon squad that is being sent is awful. Missing all their best players, Cherki and Bard with first team, keeper went to Clermont and gouiri left too.

1.4 now, wouldn't be that surprised if their price drops a little more at lineups assuming no surprises for Salzburg. Adeyemi travelled apparently, bit ridiculous having him at this level, I think he will be a regular for Salz first team this season. Will update if Salz lineup isn't great.

 

[Withnail]

Just playing devils advocate here, but a lot of defenders in Premier League are very tall / physical.
That might be tough for him. Has had good opponents for Germany too, but hasn't yet become the new Klose there.

Anyways 14/1 is quite a lot, and if he just scores on half the chances Abraham has wasted this season he'll be within distance. If Havertz do come, then I'm not sure Werner will score as much, as he'll get rotated more. Chelsea are stacked in attack, and also need to give time to Ziyech, Pulisic, Hudson-Odoi, Mount, Abraham and possibly Giroud.

Will Werner be on penalties for Chelsea? I guess Jorginho isn't starting much, but wouldn't he be the safe choice?

Isn't Jorginho supposedly on the way out?

 

[Danny Roberts]

1.4 now, wouldn't be that surprised if their price drops a little more at lineups assuming no surprises for Salzburg. Adeyemi travelled apparently, bit ridiculous having him at this level, I think he will be a regular for Salz first team this season. Will update if Salz lineup isn't great.

So Adeyemi has started, nice, fingers crossed.

 

[Danny Roberts]

- Interesting. Salah is the only foreign player I can think of that managed to be top goal scorer in his first EPL season.
- The second bullet point remains to be seen. Werner predominantly played in a two striker system, either playing with Schick or Poulson. It would be familiar territory for Werner if Lampard played him alongside Abraham or Giroud. But that's unlikely.
- The one time he started in a 4-2-3-1 system(Chelsea's most deployed) he played as a left inside forward scoring two goals. The coach favoring the hold up play of Schick to play #9. The left inside forward is in my view his best position in Chelsea's current set up as he's more of a second striker/inside forward. His role in a two man strike force is closer to that of Robben's role in LVG's 3-5-2 system for Netherlands in 2014. The trouble is Pulisic is at his best on the left. So it'll be interesting to see how Lampard goes about getting the best of Werner. Germany have struggled to find a system which mirrors his form at club level.
- From 2009/10 to 16/17 the winner was typically a player that favored a playing style which Werner struggles with. Since then, the winners share some of the strengths which Werner possesses. So there's that.

Great odds.

Cheers, good points. Think 14/1 a solid price though assuming he adapts ok to life and football here.

 

[André Dominguez]

Just playing devils advocate here, but a lot of defenders in Premier League are very tall / physical.
That might be tough for him. Has had good opponents for Germany too, but hasn't yet become the new Klose there.

The average weight of CBs in Bundesliga is about 1.89m and average weight is 83 kg. Probably not much different from Premier League

 

[André Dominguez]

Lucky for us that Lyon missed a PK. Let's hope it demoralizes them

 

[Rasendori]

So Adeyemi has started, nice, fingers crossed.

Apparently Lyon missed a penalty. Player had to retake it three times, and each time the keeper saved it.

 

[André Dominguez]

Apparently Lyon missed a penalty. Player had to retake it three times, and each time the keeper saved it.

This is even more hilarious than Martin Palermo infamous match.

 

[André Dominguez]

I think Salzburg will score before HT. Small punt on it.

edit: Thank God they didn't accept my bet. Market was closed due to Lyon scored at the same time I tried to register

 

[Danny Roberts]

Hmm, they've scored now. Was considering a cashout!

 

[Rasendori]

Damn

 

[Rasendori]

This is even more hilarious than Martin Palermo infamous match.

Are you watching it?

 

[Danny Roberts]

1-1

 

[Danny Roberts]

2-1. Happy days once more.

 

[Spiersey]

Games on bt sport btw.
Farcical start. Lyon got a pen (was never a pen) and had to retake it 3 times. Keeper saved it all 3 times. Ref has been really bias towards Lyon all game.
Salz played pretty badly, but missed 2/3 good chances. Should carve them apart now that Lyon have to come at them.

 

[Danny Roberts]

Games on bt sport btw.
Farcical start. Lyon got a pen (was never a pen) and had to retake it 3 times. Keeper saved it all 3 times. Ref has been really bias towards Lyon all game.
Salz played pretty badly, but missed 2/3 good chances. Should carve them apart now that Lyon have to come at them.

Cheers for the update!

 

[André Dominguez]

Are you watching it?

I'm keeping an eye on the stream once a while.

 

[André Dominguez]

Games on bt sport btw.
Farcical start. Lyon got a pen (was never a pen) and had to retake it 3 times. Keeper saved it all 3 times. Ref has been really bias towards Lyon all game.
Salz played pretty badly, but missed 2/3 good chances. Should carve them apart now that Lyon have to come at them.

They are playing decently, but being a bit too soft defending.

 

[Spiersey]

They are playing decently, but being a bit too soft defending.

Yeah defence switched off a couple of times, some weird individual errors but was mainly from long balls. This half Salz should be able to sit a bit deeper and just kill them on the counter if they want. They'll probably try and stay on the front foot though.

 

[André Dominguez]

3-1

Edit: 4-1. I think it's safe to assume it's a done deal.

 

[Spiersey]

4-1 now. Need them to score again for a 50/1 winner, 2 more for 80/1. Makes up for losing some on first goal.

Salz probably win the tournament. Ajax left their best players at home with the first team. Don’t think there would be much between those two full strength.

madrid inter later should be pretty close, would favour Madrid probably but don’t think there’s a bet in it. Inter will sit deep and try to counter, Madrid will just press high and probably be vulnerable at the back.

 

[André Dominguez]

Rotational substitutions by RB after the 4-1: they can afford to rest them already.

 

[André Dominguez]

Need one more yellow card now. Placed 7+ yellow cards

Edit: gonna place a small punt on a 1 red card at least.

 

[Mrs Smoker]

Easy come, easy go. Cashback at 4-1 with 95% of winnings, only to put all of that on Salzburg to score next (along with few others in bet builder).

Oh, Mrs, Mrs.

 

[Mrs Smoker]

And now everything save for 0.01 euros on 8+ goals (8 exactly is void).

I think I might be a terrible bet..or? Bettingator? Person that bets.

 

[Spiersey]

Salz managed to blow this. Zero game management at 4-1 up and let the game get so open. Now getting battered when they should have been 5 clear.

 

[André Dominguez]

Things getting tight atm

 

[André Dominguez]

Salz managed to blow this. Zero game management at 4-1 up and let the game get so open. Now getting battered when they should have been 5 clear.

They are very soft on defensive mentality: no tactical fouls, no preventive fouls, etc

 

[André Dominguez]

Done. One day we will build a statue of @Spiersey

 

[Sylar]

Done. One day we will build a statue of @Spiersey

Agreed.

After a huge sigh of relief for those who saw the ending

 

[Spiersey]

They are very soft on defensive mentality: no tactical fouls, no preventive fouls, etc

Yup, no idea what they were doing but thankfully held on in the end. On another day they'd have scored the 5th and killed the game completely. Good fun in the end but very stressful for the final 15.

 

[André Dominguez]

Just saw the highlights of Brest - Astana. Very suspicious match: in some goals you could see some players trying to defend and others conveniently just being too passive. I think some of the Astana players were fixed.

 

[Rasendori]

Easy come, easy go. Cashback at 4-1 with 95% of winnings, only to put all of that on Salzburg to score next (along with few others in bet builder).

Oh, Mrs, Mrs.

Ouch

Done. One day we will build a statue of @Spiersey

The real goat. Pele/Maradonna/Messi/Ronaldo who?

 

[Rasendori]

Lyon must be exceptionally gifted to run Salzburg so close with many key players missing.

 

[Withnail]

On Salzburg u19s win tomorrow at 2.3. Think 1.4/5 is fair. Lyon squad that is being sent is awful. Missing all their best players, Cherki and Bard with first team, keeper went to Clermont and gouiri left too.

Great tip, Thanks!

 

[Knux]

Yup, no idea what they were doing but thankfully held on in the end. On another day they'd have scored the 5th and killed the game completely. Good fun in the end but very stressful for the final 15.

Thanks for the tip! Much appreciated