I've also been toying with the idea of creating a ML model for predictions as a bit of a learning project rather than trying to make millions from it. Betfair AU have some interesting articles on GitHub - https://github.com/betfair-datascientists/predictive-models the AFL (Aussie Rules) section is interesting and you could rip parts of it for a football model.
Finding these betting conversations really fascinating folks (if a little over my head to be honest). If I may ask, when you refer to the margins are you referring to the bookies cut or something else??
Got hammered on this one, ended up losing 4-2.
Margin is how much the bookie takes I believe.
I know a few people who use models pretty successfully on a few leagues, Turkish, Estonian, Thai + a few others. I personally dislike betting stuff because a formula tells me to but I can't argue with their results. You can download templates online I'm pretty sure where all the coding is done for you then you'd need to input all the data yourself. When I start following a new league I make a database just to familiarise myself with teams and players, read up on each players previous clubs, inty caps including youth level etc. Then after a month or two I can bin off the database mostly as will remember which players are key to each team from watching the games.
Margins or overrounds as its more commonly called are how much 'the book' adds up to. Heads or tails is 50/50 chance so evens is the correct odds. In this situation the bookmaker would offer odds of 10/11 on both sides.
Yeah I like the idea of that. It’s all about finding a niche isn’t it really, lower leagues seem great but I think you have to weigh it against the quality of data/info you’re able to analyse for it too.
Yeah, I like that pretty sensible.
You'd be amazed at the data you can find for obscure games. Some of the US Amateur leagues have better stats coverage than La Liga. Can find streams for loads of leagues nowadays as well, just depends on free time. If you've unlimited free time can watch the games and document all the stats yourself but it's very time consuming.
Yes, margin, overround, vigorish, juice... that's all the same. You can calculate it by adding up the reciprocals of each outcome. So in a two-outcome market using the prices from the Serie A game: 1/2.37 + 1/1.565 = 1.0609 or 6.09%. This means if you randomly bet on of the outcomes you'll lose €6.09 of your €100 stake in the long run (assuming the prices reflect the true probabilities).
Thanks, I'll check that site out!
I've no set formula as such for anything, people always ask me how I know what the correct prices should be and generally I just know because I do. I've so much experience in following games so I can remember prices from similar games from years ago and usually spot if they look wrong at a glance. I guess for 'mainstream' stuff like the AFC Asian Cup, it generally boils down to opinions and knowledge of watching all the teams play a lot of games in the past and just forming opinions on each teams level and deciding prices based on team ratings (and factoring in styles of play). Then for obscurer stuff, I'd use previous game stats and see if results were deserved based on Dangerous Attacks, Shots on/off and sometimes corners (generally an okay indicator of better side, but not an exact science). I've no idea if any of that will make any sense, it's a hard thing to explain
Yeah, I understand what you're saying.I've no set formula as such for anything, people always ask me how I know what the correct prices should be and generally I just know because I do. I've so much experience in following games so I can remember prices from similar games from years ago and usually spot if they look wrong at a glance. I guess for 'mainstream' stuff like the AFC Asian Cup, it generally boils down to opinions and knowledge of watching all the teams play a lot of games in the past and just forming opinions on each teams level and deciding prices based on team ratings (and factoring in styles of play). Then for obscurer stuff, I'd use previous game stats and see if results were deserved based on Dangerous Attacks, Shots on/off and sometimes corners (generally an okay indicator of better side, but not an exact science). I've no idea if any of that will make any sense, it's a hard thing to explain
This isn't true long term, whats important is that the bet was good and long term it wins more often than the odds suggest. Obviously it's a results business at the end of the day but it's better to be on unlucky losers than lucky winners long term. I also wasn't overly fussed about odds a couple of years ago then realised taking 1.72 instead of 1.8 is huge money when you're on decent stakes over 800 bets.
Yeah you’re right there to be fair, having sound principles is the key thing.
Out of curiousity how many games do you watch a day? It sounds mental the amounts of markets you cover and grt to watch too. How many bets a day do you place on average as a professional? Some interesting discussions going on earlier!
Thanks for the comprehensive explanation, I think I understand it better now. I should have been more attentive at the probability lessons in maths.
Probably watch 100+ almost every week. If theres youth tournaments on, anything from u17 to u21, I'll watch literally every game and any warm up games as well if they're streamed, same as Uefa Youth League etc. I've got 3 screens on my desk + 2 laptops so usually have games on pretty much all day. Bets will vary but I'd say on a 'normal' midweek day it would be 3/4 on average. Will be some days when I don't place any and just sit watching games and researching for 12 hours a day but if there's nothing I like, I'll just keep plugging away and wait. On busier days like weekends, especially during friendly season, I might end up on 10-15 bets a day. I'm pretty disciplined compared to some others I know who will have 15+ bets every day but they are chasers, whilst I know 1 guy who has a bet every few weeks, just waits for huge bets to appear.
Doesn't sound stupid at all don't worry. I'd define a bet as 'good' as either one that beats the odds or deserved to win (reflective of the odds). A couple weeks a go I tipped Chelsea Women in here, they were 8/1 to win and they kicked off around 2/1. Now, at that point, this bet is good because the odds have dropped loads and I've beat the market. If they draw 1-1 and it's an even game, it was still a great bet at 8/1. If they lost 6-0 and deserved to lose 6-0, it was not a good bet, despite beating the market, because the market was wrong. This is pretty rare though, and would generally be a freak result.
I've heard stories like that from other professionals so I'm not surprised by the amount of work that goes into it. It really is a full-time job. I can invest around ten hours every week and limit myself to betting a few mainstream leagues and while I try to catch highlights of most of them I much more rely on statistics and some sophisticated Excel sheets I've created. There's really no end to the amount of research you can do though, and as you said it's really about being ahead of the markets and beating the early lines. Which particulary in the lower leagues will make you a lot of money as bookies are often just guessing.
Pretty sure he's more than just one match on at the same time and doesn't watch the full 90 minutes either.
Does one exist?Did you play poker before? Basically the same thought process!
What a lazy fecker, check it yourself!
I can't find it, otherwise I would! The only site I found which has multiple trophies won betting is Skybet, and their treble odds on City are suspended. 9/1 for the Liverpool treble, though (PL/LC/CL).The odds are 25/#googleit
Usually have a few games on at once, can have 6 on at one time occasionally but hard to follow that much properly so usually just have 2/3 on. Probably spend around 12 hours each day working, probably about 2/3 days a month where I do less than 8 hours a day, usually when I'm hungover.
I played poker briefly online about 10 years ago when I was 13/14 and made decent money (for a kid), my dad's an ex small time semi pro (just grinded online, couple live tournaments).
12/1 for the treble and 16/1 for the quadruple on Betfair in the multiple trophies section.What are the best odds on City winning the treble? I can only find it suspended on Skybet, & I can't find a site to compare prices on things like multiple title wins
Cheers!
Ive done that recently. Small bets on stuff I dont want to happen.7/4 on no trophies for us seems like the safer bet. Plus I won't be too bothered if I lose the bet
Roma, Juve, United and Bayern I think.
Yup, can't really go wrong. Can't see us winning the CL, so it's an insurance policy if we blunder the league.
