I think NBA analysts/reporters had Klay at over 90% on staying with the Warriors in a poll about where the free agents will end up this summer. He's been the surest bet out of all of the top free agents.
Lacob loves the guy and said he'll do everything to keep him as they have a special connection with Klay being the first draft pick his regime made. His dad also does radio for the Lakers, and he's been consistently asked about the chances Klay comes to LA, but he's always said that his son is happy at GS.
And I feel they didn't do this unless they had some near assurance that one of the top tier is going to join
Definitely. Nothing is certain, but Rich Paul/AD said they’d only waive the kicker if they were confident the Lakers would be able to lure a top free agent, so they know something is in the works. They wouldn’t have waived it without assurances that someone they feel can take them up a level is coming. They will try for Kawhi, Kyrie, Jimmy, and Kemba, probably in that order.
I doubt they'll end up with Kawhi or Kyrie but you never know. Both are hard to read, marching to the beat of their own drum, and neither have gone by the book in terms of career moves. KD may have a big part to play yet, as he could be one of the catalysts for the dominos to start falling.
They have a chance at Butler or Kemba, though (although it looks like Boston is going in hard for Kemba), which was better than the situation they were in prior to yesterday. Even if they fail with them, there's still the B/C tier FA's like DLo and co., and they'll have more cap room to play around with. The issue will be if the process of signing the top free agents gets dragged out and it becomes a waiting game, they may end up losing out on the B and C tier targets, which obviously won't be an issue if they succeed in signing one of the top 4.
