Next Labour leader - Starmer and Rayner win

711

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My and your definition shouldn't matter, if we follow the original thread. What you were talking about is how people self identify. What you're describing are now markers of being middle class, but there were people who didn't fit that strict criteria that still identified as middle class half a century ago.

Is it your view that majority of the population identified as working class 50 years ago...but they generally voted against the party that identified with their class? People's socioeconomic status can be defined by absolute measures but most people have defined their social class on relative measures.

My point wasn't that's everything is nuanced, but rather the nuances you're skipping over are so significant that they should be considered something beyond that. It's necesarry to ignore some of the nuances in generalised discussions, but that's when they're small and insignificant.

Parties have won power all across the world this century, and in the previous century in this country, while putting themselves forward as a party for a particular class. And people outside of that class voted for them. What you're saying as an absolute statement needs something a bit more substantive to justify it, in that context.

Is it the case that the modern British voter is completely different to those voters? Maybe. But what explains the London Labour vote? They didn't think the Labour Party had specific policies for them, and for the class most of them are a part of. Many considered it an aspirational vote, just of a different kind. They didn't feel the focus was somehow exclusionary towards them.
That's a good question, and I don't know is the answer, sorry. I suppose what matters is whether whatever it is can be tweaked to appeal to those outside London, because on the evidence of the last election, it doesn't at the moment.
 

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Brwned

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I'm sorry SS, thanks for the effort but I don't have the attention span to wade through all that. Good luck to those that have, it's just not me I'm afraid.
Pretty sure it wouldn't be worth your time. 2 years ago, in that 3rd link, he came to the conclusion that Corbyn losing the election meant, amongst other things...

9. Inflicting a defeat on the Tories so profound they may never recover without painful self-adjustment.

10. Positioning Labour as an obvious government-in-waiting with the polls now putting them ahead of the Tories.
 

Sweet Square

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I'm sorry SS, thanks for the effort but I don't have the attention span to wade through all that. Good luck to those that have, it's just not me I'm afraid.
No worries.

Edit - The shorter version is basically this


Pretty sure it wouldn't be worth your time. 2 years ago, in that 3rd link, he came to the conclusion that Corbyn losing the election meant, amongst other things...
:houllier:
 
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sun_tzu

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Labour will be pretty irrelevant for the next 10 years. Makes no difference who leads the sorry wretches.
I'm not so sure
Brexit is far from certain to go smoothly certainly from an economic standpoint
Johnson is if you want to be nice a somewhat divisive figure (if you want to be a bit less nice it's a matter of time before he does / says something so bad his position becomes untenable)
I wouldn't write off the next election yet (that said it's also possible to make the argument that labours infighting could make them unelectable for a decade )
 
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nickm

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I'm sorry SS, thanks for the effort but I don't have the attention span to wade through all that. Good luck to those that have, it's just not me I'm afraid.
What I got was a bunch of interesting hypotheses about how class is being expressed in a networked age, that made a bunch of predictions that have just been definitively disproved.

Ie it is more evidence that these class based analyses have much less to offer than their adherents believe.
 

africanspur

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I'm not so sure
Brexit is far from certain to go smoothly certainly from an economic standpoint
Johnson is if you want to be nice a somewhat divisive figure (if you want to be a bit less nice it's a matter of time before he does / says something so bad his position becomes untenable)
I wouldn't write off the next election yet (that said it's also possible to make the argument that labours infighting could make them unelectable for a decade )
Meh, with the loss of Scotland, Labour's path to victory seems almost impossible, regardless of leader in my opinion.

It would take a good leader, Boris being an utter buffoon/ the Tories veering hard to the right and Brexit blowing the economy up completely for labour to somehow get in for the next election imo. I can't see all 3 happening.

I feel the UK is sadly also a centre right country generally too.
 

sun_tzu

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Meh, with the loss of Scotland, Labour's path to victory seems almost impossible, regardless of leader in my opinion.

It would take a good leader, Boris being an utter buffoon/ the Tories veering hard to the right and Brexit blowing the economy up completely for labour to somehow get in for the next election imo. I can't see all 3 happening.

I feel the UK is sadly also a centre right country generally too.
Boris might not give the Scottish their freeeedom vote for a start
Rumours are new labour leadership might switch to backing a pr system as well... If they do I think you will find Britain's actually centre left (albeit possibly the biggest party being conservatives... But certainly not 50% of the vote)
Getting a hung parliament especially if Scotland's still in the UK isn't that big a stretch of the imagination
 
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Smores

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YouGov polling sounds about right yet the debates will have impact like last time. Starmer will probably lose some ground following the debates.
 

Sweet Square

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YouGov polling sounds about right yet the debates will have impact like last time. Starmer will probably lose some ground following the debates.
Yeah sort of expected Starmer to poll well at the start, due his pro eu stance and name recognition but he abstained on the notorious welfare bill and supported Owen Smith in 2016. There's other awful stuff with regards to his time as a human rights lawyer


Starmer history is still for the most part unknown to the membership.

Part of me thinks it could be quite close as 1)Starmer is seems like a clever operator(And a decent bloke) and 2)The move to the left of party has meant there isn't one unifying left candidate(Although shows all the talk of labour being full of far left communists was always utter bollocks)

but

As bad as the left has been at winning election, the liberals have been even worse(Both Labour leadership contest, 2016 EU referendum, Lib Dems election campaigns in 2017 and 2019). So it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Stamer campaign is completely dead by the final week.

Plus if this true then a lot will depend on who the unions go for.

 
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NWRed

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YouGov polling sounds about right yet the debates will have impact like last time. Starmer will probably lose some ground following the debates.
What are you basing this on? From his performance in the HoC Starmer is an excellent debater.
 

africanspur

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Boris might not give the Scottish their freeeedom vote for a start
Rumours are new labour leadership might switch to backing a pr system as well... If they do I think you will find Britain's actually centre left (albeit possibly the biggest party being conservatives... But certainly not 50% of the vote)
Getting a hung parliament especially if Scotland's still in the UK isn't that big a stretch of the imagination
I didn't actually mean in terms of independence, more that a previously almost guaranteed 50 or so seats has now become almost 0 and I'm not sure I see what sends the Scots back onto labour's arms, rather than the snp.
 

Kaos

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YouGov polling sounds about right yet the debates will have impact like last time. Starmer will probably lose some ground following the debates.
I think the opposite will happen and it would shore up his position as front-runner.

He’s a very competent debater and appears the most statesmanlike amongst the current crop of candidates.
 

sun_tzu

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I didn't actually mean in terms of independence, more that a previously almost guaranteed 50 or so seats has now become almost 0 and I'm not sure I see what sends the Scots back onto labour's arms, rather than the snp.
Not sure it needs to ... If labour can get a hung parliament next time and put through a pr voting system I think you have locked in a centre left administration in the short/medium term
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/l...m-pr-general-election-2019-fiasco-1352123?amp
https://www.policyforum.labour.org....tem-for-future-elections-to-the-uk-parliament
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ntation-corbyn-leader-polls-a9249196.html?amp
They don't need the SNP votes back... A hung parliament and pr reforms passed (they could even probably take the hit if Scotland going independent and still return a centre left government under pr)
 

711

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When are the nec set to announce the timetable and rules*

* How they are going to try to put Corbyn in a skirt in charge
They will be twisting, turning and arguing about how to get the result they want, but given their general incompetence my gut feeling is that they will come out with some obviously stupid and restrictive voting system, which will be widely derided and result in them withdrawing the first set of rules and re-issuing a more logical version.
 

SteveJ

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Does Jess always dress like Bet Lynch going to the 24-hour garage in pyjamas or is it just shamelessly populist PR?
 

Dobba

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You should be Phillips's campaign manager, a few stories like that and she'll walk it. Diane Abbott can definitely feck off.
The dining partner of a group that want to repatriate black Britons, who retweets scum like AfD and described the Grenfell dead as lacking common sense, on the other hand? Did Jess tell you the story about how lovely he is?

Speak Truth. Win Power.
 

Vidic_In_Moscow

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Can't stand Jess Phillips personally, fair fcuks if she thinks she's got what it takes but I think she must be bordering on delusional. Her only trick is to get all emotional in the house of commons or wherever the cameras may be and put on her best 'commoner against the posh poeple' act. She's got about 10% of the appeal and competence that Corbyn has at most.
 

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Can't stand Jess Phillips personally, fair fcuks if she thinks she's got what it takes but I think she must be bordering on delusional. Her only trick is to get all emotional in the house of commons or wherever the cameras may be and put on her best 'commoner against the posh poeple' act. She's got about 10% of the appeal and competence that Corbyn has at most.
That’s a pretty low bar.
 

711

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The dining partner of a group that want to repatriate black Britons, who retweets scum like AfD and described the Grenfell dead as lacking common sense, on the other hand? Did Jess tell you the story about how lovely he is?

Speak Truth. Win Power.
You're writing as if I've read all the same twitter stuff as you have. You may have some good points, or may not, but I'm not going to spend half an hour googling to find out what you mean.

'Feck off Diane Abott' on the other hand, I get that.
 

SteveJ

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We're the only people who haven't entered the race.
 

SteveJ

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*camera pans to leopard-print shoes...again*

"Cor blimey, stone the crows, and by 'eck - she's just like us!"
 

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I like Jess. I would bet that she would be the one that Johnson would least like to see across the house.
He wouldn't want to see Yvette Cooper at the dispatch box. I'm sure you do like Jess, many labour voters do. Then again many tory voters like Mark Francois and it's for the same reason..they both get on TV now and then and have colourful, hysterical rants at their opponents. They're both just soundbites with no substance.