Who's everyone's draft crush this year then?
I love Zay Flowers and a few of the TE's
I love Zay Flowers and a few of the TE's
NFL 2023
- Thread starter Raoul
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JSN put up some of the best agility numbers in decades and produced when healthy...he's like the Sun God on steroids. That probably sounds odd since I put the 1.02 & 1.03 on the trading block in our league, but I am like the Charlie Day of fantasy managers and play the Wildcard.
Devon Achane was the guy I guessed might break the 4.3 barrier at the combine (not Hyatt like @RobinLFC thought I was referring to). There's not much precedence for a track star of his size lasting at RB though...
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Do your thing Veach. He even had a drugs suspension last year so he sounds perfect for the Chiefs.
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How believable is this?
Lots of reports about it but they seem to be mixed.
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Saw another good thread by a Boston-based journalist saying that it "talks could've taken place but that doesn't necessarily mean much". So basically no one knows how serious these reports are.
However, if you look at the Pats' actions, they have not indicated that they're trying to get rid of him: according to reports, Belichick was angry that Jones sought advice outside of the organization (he went to Alabama coaches because BB let Matt fecking Patricia run the offense with a background as DC). However, BB then proceeds to hire Bill O'Brien from Bama, who Jones previously worked with at Bama as well. So that move alone proves more imo that they're still committed to him or at least believing he can succeed.
But again, that doesn't mean that they haven't inquired with other teams if they might be interested in him of course.
I think there’s enough smoke for it to be possible. Florio has many links around the NFL as much as I can’t stand the man.
BB not willing to name Mac the QB at the owners meeting - may or may not be significant but he has done it pre season in the past.
I think BB is extremely pissed that Mac went outside of the organisation - Alabama, no less - for help with the patriots offense last season.
BB is far from blameless given the state of the offensive coaching set up last season.
On top of that BB and Kraft seem to be disjointed with each other more than ever.
Fair to say post Brady Patriots have been way off the mark.
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Amount of praise he's gotten over the last month or so is ridiculous. Likely will be the highest drafted RB since Saquon himself back in 2018.
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How high could he go? Eagles at 10?
I guess yeah. Don't think their fans would like it as they are saying they've already got Gainwell and Penny but you can't count on Penny to be healthy for more than 3 games a season and Gainwell is no 3-down back. The Eagles have the luxury of a pretty complete roster and an additional first round pick, so that's why it could make sense to go RB at 10 - but it would go against Roseman's philosophy as a GM. Don't think he'll be drafting Bijan if say Jalen Carter is still on the board, he loves building his team in the tranches through the draft. Unless, like some mock draft analysts are pointing out, he considers Bijan to be that good to change his draft strategy for that this year:
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So while it could happen, I don't think it will. Otherwise, could be Tampa at #19, Chargers at #21, then Cowboys, Bills, Bengals at #26-28.
Interesting. Let’s see which team is stupid enough to take him that high.
Hmm, dunno. I usually agree that RBs are interchangeable and very easily replaceable, but his tape is off the charts. For already pretty complete teams with just one or two pieces away from a legit SB run, it could be a logical addition if he's the best player available.
That's why I wouldn't fault the Bengals (if Mixon goes), Bills or Eagles (ideally at #30 rather than #10) for drafting him. A team like the Buccaneers would be madness though with so many gaping holes in your roster.
Yep. No way we go for him as we have a RB we like who can be a three down back. Need a lot of help elsewhere to basically waste a first.
That’s the very same argument people made for Barkley. Or Zeke. Or Trent Richardson.
You don’t draft RBs that high no matter what. There is just no value there. No matter how good the player might be.
Mayfield has been in the league 5 years already?
Honestly feels like yesterday when he was being drafted.
Barkley and Zeke were 2 and 4. Big difference between that and say 25-30 range imo. And also the Giants weren't close to competing when they did that, which is exactly my argument. Can't remember about the Cowboys when they got Zeke.
It doesn’t matter if you’re close to competing. Drafting running backs in the first round just doesn’t make sense. The value is not there. The pick and salary are just too high relative to the position.
And it’s not like a running back can get a possible contender over the edge. When did this last happen?
With so many talented running backs outside the first rounds and sometimes even outside the draft at all, picking them in round one is just bad business. No matter who it is. And for every rb picked in round one who works out, we have plenty who don’t. So not only is the value not there, but it’s a position that’s difficult to translate to the NFL.
We can’t have this conversation without @Eboue
If it didn't make sense teams wouldn't do it each year. The reason they do is because they do their own research on a given player they are interested in and are not beholden to stat muppet twitter accounts, as many fans are. Another reason they continue doing it is that it actually works. With the possible exception of CEH and Penny, both have had to deal with injuries, every RB drafted in the first have to varying degrees, worked out. At the end of the day, teams keep doing it because they think a particular player can help them win.
It's an inefficient use of a first round pick at the exception of RBs that are geunuine threat in the passing game. In general it won't hurt you short term because RBs tend to adapt quickly to the NFL but long term it's a bad move because you quickly overpay for the position and running back isn't a long term position, you are not supposed to extend them at a premium.
If you can get a game changer late in the first without any other obvious holes I think it’s fine. Especially with the 5th year option. It’s generally the 2nd contract where it can go tits up with RBs. That said, Bijan is likely gone by 20, he’s that special.
Disagree that you quickly overpay for them long term. Most RBs wear down after their rookie deal anyway; you use them for 4-5 years if they are doing well and then replace them through the draft. In the middle rounds, ideally, but the best RBs in the league right now are higher picks (Chubb, Henry, JT, Breece, CMC, KWIII, Swift, Barkley, Etienne, Jacobs, .. all first or second round). Only exceptions I can think of are Ekeler (backup/3th down back in first few years anyway) and Aaron Jones (severely underdrafted according to his college profile).
"Ride and die" if you go off recent samples from both
https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/john-elway-denver-broncos-contract-ends-executive-leaves/
John Elway leaves the Denver Broncos. A sad day for the Chiefs.
John Elway leaves the Denver Broncos. A sad day for the Chiefs.
Drafting a RB in round 1 only makes sense in a very rare set of circumstances. You need to have no obvious holes. You need to be particularly weak at the position. And the RB themselves needs to be a game changer in all facets of RB play (blocking, running, passing). Even then, I wouldn’t even entertain it unless it was a late first round pick. Which incidentally aligns with the types of teams who likely meet the criteria set out above. For example, the Bills would be a good example of a team who might fit the mould in drafting Robinson this year. But even then, you still question if the relative gain is better drafting in another key position and running a RB by committee to get you close to the overall output of a single elite RB. The thing about the RB position is that you don’t mind many truly elite RBs who give you THAT much extra than the dozens of capable RBs you can easily and cheaply pick up.
That's basically it, the bolded part. Would the Chiefs have been better last year if they drafted Breece Hall or KWIII at #30? Now they drafted Karlaftis and ran with McKinnon and a 7th round rookie as their RBs during the most important stretch of the season - which I think was the better decision still.
You quickly overpay because the position isn't wort the money, the point isn't about the RB payscale in isolation but about any player. The money that you pay for top level RBs, is better used toward CBs, WRs, rushers, offensive tackles or even a top level guard.
I think the biggest reason teams continue to draft RBs in round 1 is they need a good running back and they are probabilistically more likely to find one in rounds 1 or 2. If 5-6 teams are in the same predicament (ie they are all in the market for a quality RB) then it creates a bit of an arms race, which in turn creates a premium around certain RBs. Another reason is that about half the teams in the NFL have not bought into the idea that they are more likely to do better if they address their RB needs by punting on a late round RB selection. That occasionally works out for a team, but mostly it doesn't. The RBs who have been selected in rounds 1 or 2 have on the other hand vastly outperformed their late round counterparts.
The first and second rounds shouldn't be lumped together. The first round comes with an extermely valuable 5th round option when you are talking about an elite player on a rookie contract. Drafting a top level RB in the second round, if you need one is perfectly fine but the 1st round isn't a good idea.
All first round contracts are fully guaranteed which makes signing a running back a lot less feasible, regardless of their talent. If they get hobbled in the first year then you're paying them for over 3 years to do nothing. I know this can happen with any player you draft in the first round but it's far more likely to happen with a RB.
We're in this situation now with Clyde Edwards-Hellaire who is a bust due to getting hobbled in his first season and losing his speed. We can't shop him and it makes no sense to cut him when we're still going to pay up the remainder of his contract.
We're in this situation now with Clyde Edwards-Hellaire who is a bust due to getting hobbled in his first season and losing his speed. We can't shop him and it makes no sense to cut him when we're still going to pay up the remainder of his contract.
Do you mean valuable 5th year or expensive 5th year?
If you have a great RB on your hands he'd cost you $8-10m during his 5th year, which would be top-10 at the position. No RB should be earning that amount of money in the current NFL.
5th year options at RB shouldn't be picked up at that price.
While we are at it, I wouldn’t draft TEs in the first round either. They usually take too long to translate to the NFL. So more often than not, you end up spending a high pick and lots of resources developing a player for another team.
That's just not how NFL GMs and coaches look at it imo. They see the player and what sort of impact they can make, then prioritize getting them accordingly. Its equally about the individual as it is about the position they play, which is why not everything in player personnel recruitment is reducible to pie charts and excel spreadsheets.
There are subjective human assessments that evaluate everything from combine performances to how a player interviews (example: Mayfield went #1 based on how he impressed Alonzo Highsmith when they spoke), which ended pushing Darnold to #3. Both have largely been busts.
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Valuable. It gives you one more year of control and as an example if we are talking about an elite WR, the 5th year option is supposed to be at 19.7m for a two time pro bowler, that's below market for elite WRs in 2023. For a RB it would be 10m which is market value, so the fifth year doesn't actually help you when it comes to RBs.
Who said that there are no subjective human assessements? It's possible for people and to have a subjective opinion about a rookie and also have an objective evaluation of the position within the game and the implication of pick when it comes to cap management.
But by looking at your posts on this page, anyone that has a different take than yours is a muppet or understanding nothing outside of excel spreadsheets and pie charts.