That's correct. That is precisely what is happening. And yet NFL GMs continue to select RBs in the first round. What do they know that we don't (and vice versa) ?
NFL 2023
- Thread starter Raoul
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
Nothing. Not all GMs are good at their jobs, in fact most aren't which is why they get routinely sacked after winning nothing. That's why they put themselves in cap hell while winning nothing and being nowhere near winning anything.
I agree, but that doesn't mean the analytics lovin', online fantasy football community are any more knowledgable that those who are hired to do it for a living. GMs routinely get it wrong - not just at one position either. More first round QBs have been busts than RBs. I'm sure the Jets franchise would be in a much stronger position today if they could get the #3 pick in 2018 and #1 pick in 2021 back to select other players.
And no one told you that they are overall more knowledgeable than anyone. You are the one who instead of discussing the topic decided to go with the idea that because some GMs are willing to select RBs in the first round then everyone that isn't a GM is a muppet and wrong. The reality of the matter is that not even GMs believe that RBs are that valuable and it's reflected in the contract they offer them or the compensation they offer in trades, the same is true for safeties and inside linebacker, it doesn't mean that they are useless or that you should under no circumstance draft these positions in the first round, it simply means that if you do it, you lose a competitive advantage because the position isn't worth a first round pick.
Now if like the Eagles, you have a stacked team then you may not care about anything other than the short term value of the player. They have two top WRs, a bunch of elite pass rushers, an excellent secondary and one of, if not the best Oline in Football. So they are in a special position, a position that shouldn't be used to make a point about almost every other team in the league who are not settled in all positions.
Not particularly surprising given that he's 28 and has yet to rush for 1k in a season. Still a good RB to add to a team that's building towards a playoff push. Maybe the Rams will take him given that he's better than what they currently have.
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This doesn't even scratch the surface. Turns out selecting high round QBs also a bit of a hit or miss gamble.
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The reason GMs still draft RBs that high is that many of them are morons. They believe that they possess some divine trait to assess players. If you then add a bit of confirmation bias to the mix, you have GMs drafting players in spots they simply shouldn’t. And they don’t like to acknowledge or even consider the possibility that analytics and stats are superior to their own skills, because that would mean that they are not needed. That they aren’t some brilliant football minds, but interchangeable.
Personally, I wouldn’t even scout that much. Or I would actually concentrate my scouting on off field issues and injury stuff. Other than that, I firmly and wholeheartedly believe that someone with analytical prowess could build a strong contender, without having ever seen a single player they signed on the field.
But a good old school GM will see his team losing, believe it’s because they are too soft or some shit like that and then they’ll add a tough runner, a great run stuffing linebacker and a safety who thrives near the box and then wonder why things don’t work out.
Personally, I wouldn’t even scout that much. Or I would actually concentrate my scouting on off field issues and injury stuff. Other than that, I firmly and wholeheartedly believe that someone with analytical prowess could build a strong contender, without having ever seen a single player they signed on the field.
But a good old school GM will see his team losing, believe it’s because they are too soft or some shit like that and then they’ll add a tough runner, a great run stuffing linebacker and a safety who thrives near the box and then wonder why things don’t work out.
You went a step too far here. I remember an analatycs focused scout mentioning that while he believes that analytics are extremely valuable, there is one truth that any scout need to keep in mind, If the production isn't on tape then it doesn't exist. Analytics can confirm or weaken some biases but it can't be a substituate for actual production.
If the production is there, it can be measured. And that’s really all you need. Of course it’s a difficult and nuanced process. There are many different variables to analyse. But if a player can play, there will be numbers supporting his impact.
I agree, but I also think they take analytics into consideration (at least far more today than before). There is also the human aspect to this, such that if Mike Tomlin approaches Omar Khan (or his predecessor) and says "I want Najee Harris. Loved what he brought to the table at Bama, love his life story, his attitude, and his production, and think he's the player we need to take us to the next level" then there's a high likelihood the coach is going to get what he wants. At least in terms of the GM is not likely to say "feck off, our analytics guy is telling me there's better historical value of drafting a guy in round 6". Therefore, if a coach is sold on a player, they're likely to pursue them irrespective of what their perceived draft rating is, which would make sense given most mock drafts are nonsense anyway.
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I also think they consider them. But not in all cases. And often enough they cherrypick them to confirm their own biases. I think a lot of this is psychological. It’s tough to accept that some random guy who’s good at maths but doesn’t even know how to hold a football, god forbid how to throw it, might actually be better at assessing players than they are. Since they have been raised in and around the game.
And obviously they would endanger their own livelihood by relying too much on them. Because why would an owner pay you millions, if they could just hire some kids from college who could actually bring better results? Analytics threatens jobs and while believe systems. It will be a while before they are truly and adequately utilised in all of sports.
I said it then and still hold to it - Dallas should have and more so needed to draft Ramsey. But Jerry still thinks of how they won in the 90s.
Hooker being gauged as QB3 taken. I'd certainly take him over Levis & Richardson.
Anywhere other than that one guy's mock? I'm not buying it. The Tennessee guys are being put all over the place...Credit to Josh H for that.
I am buying keeping an eye on the 3 spot with the Cards though.
Better right now than the mayo in coffee guy & the one who played mediocre last year. It's only the injury that is projecting him in the second round. Healthy & he'd be third easily.
To be fair to Levi's, the mayo in coffee thing was a joke that turned into a meme that outlived its expected life expectancy.
You've ruined my whole day.
That's been my SOP lately.I don't know if it's a fair representation. There are at least two things that have been mentioned against him, his age and his inaccuracy on the move, he completed 7 passes on the move out of 151.
That and the fact that he’s older than 3-year veterans like Herbert and Tua, of course. He’s a 25 year old who was playing against 18, 19, 20 year olds, that matters a lot as well.
I’d much rather take a punt on the most athletic QB ever / since Cam, whose ceiling could be through the roof if he figures out some stuff.
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I think Lamar will end up signing a deal with the Ravens similar to the $133m fully guaranteed 3 year one he reportedly rejected. I can see it being something like a $190m contract with $160m guaranteed over 4 years.
Could be a risky deal investment for the Ravens unless they’re confident Lamar can win them a Super Bowl.
Tape vs. opponents or tape vs. air. I’d definitely go the former if the immediate QB need was high. If a team could use the pick to be able to project a few years out, the athletic freak would make sense.
Didn’t know he was that old. Listened to him have a ten minute interview during the combine on NFL radio & I was impressed with his maturity. He’s no Chris Weinke, but his advanced age showed through with how he was handling everything.
Don’t really see how his age is that much of a criticism. Passing while moving can be taught & the offense could be tweaked enough to play to his strengths while he improves on that skill set.
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Anything to read into the jersey choice?
Look two posts up.
18 million? Haha!
Wonder how Lamar feels after that.
Well it's just short of the difference between his non exclusive salary and what he thinks he's worth.
Won’t find a bigger OBJ stan than me but $18m after such a long time out of the league and on the wrong side of 30, wow. Would’ve let someone else take that bet if I’m the Ravens.
I meant using Lamar’s jersey for the post, as in trying to get him to return?
What an asshole I am. Didn't even register!
He's one I find hard to assess. The production and tape is very good + those agility numbers, not great size but good enough (and practically a giant compared to half this draft class).
However his lack of long speed and vertical threat make it a question of whether he can ever play outside in the NFL. Playing 85% of his snaps or whatever it was in the slot in 2021 is a truly INSANE number.
Coming from that offense as well, is it a given that you produce when you've got possibly the #1 overall pick throwing you the ball and two studs like Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson drawing attention on the outside?
I think I'd be OK taking him in the 20s. I've seen some mocks with him going like #8 to the Falcons though. That's way too high IMO.
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You just have to look to the Jahmyr Gibbs comps on Twitter to see who has actually watched some tape on him and who just watches highlights or looks at the box score.
I really don't get the Alvin Kamara vibe. They botch catch passes and have dreads but Kamara is a lot bigger, slower, and has a much better contact balance imo. The Jamaal Charles comparisons make way more sense.
I really don't get the Alvin Kamara vibe. They botch catch passes and have dreads but Kamara is a lot bigger, slower, and has a much better contact balance imo. The Jamaal Charles comparisons make way more sense.
He's probably the #1 but I personally don't have a clear 1st round grade on any of these guys.
Considering he's not as any of his team mates (Olave and Wilson from last year, Marvin Harrison Jr who'll be a top 10 pick next year) he probably shouldn't go before the 20s.
The likes of Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Jalin Hyatt have a variety of bigger concerns so they are probably borderline 1st at best. I feel like need will push a few of these guys into the 1st still though.
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