Scottish Conservatives got 25% of the Scottish vote - You can't call them an English nationalist party. The Scots chose to stay in the UK and the UK had a referendum. Two million Scots also voted to brexit, more than double who actually voted for the SNP in the election, I think it is really disingenuous to lump all scots together as this block of Independence seeking Europhiles, they are not.
Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish Independence
- Thread starter altodevil
- Start date
I think the two main problems that you have with a referendum would be these:
1. Political chaos fatigue - after years of divisive referendums and messy divorce proceedings another divisive referendum and messy divorce proceeding could cause big resentment among those not naturally inclined to independence.
2. Extra knowledge of the complications of leaving a long established political union - through Brexit the Scottish electorate have seen first hand the chaos that such a disentanglement will entail. The SNP will want Independence 'a la carte' but they won't be able to have it. The parallels to Brexit and the inherent lack of economic sense that Independence fundamentally is will be all the more obvious. The level of debate will be much more informed than 2014 and the SNPs case for Independence falls apart unless the Scottish people are willing to suck up some significant economic harm in the short - medium term. Are enough of the Scottish electorate up for that right now, do you want to risk bodging it again?
No they didn't, it was just over 1m.
Sorry, my mistake, still a sizable amount to disregard and around the same as people who voted for the SNP who seem to think they can speak for every Scot.
The SNP should use the next few years to collect as much data as they possibly can so that when they are granted another referendum 5 years from now (this would be the best guess estimate) they can be almost certain of winning. In all likelihood, even a campaign run with the slogan “well, it cannae get any worse so why no just go fir it” would be successful. For your average Scottish person, the Boris Johnson tenure will be pretty hard hitting. As a nation, we aren’t littered with genius IQ’s or even a moderate grasp on how politics work, but the one thing everybody in the working class has been able to analyze is that they are going to be worse off for a while now.
What the country needs to do is compete negate the need for people to vote based on religion and the football team they support. Just this week, sir Rod Stewart has been told he’s unwelcome at Celtic park because he congratulated Boris Johnson in a tweet. And you’d be hard pressed to find many life long die hard rangers fans who voted to leave in the previous referendum. The bitterness between the two forms such a divide that it can absolutely impact a vote on whether or not to separate from the union.
So much of Scotland leans to the left at the moment but I’m confident that if you ask 100 people what the left represents, a large Portion couldn’t explain it to you. So many SNP supporters spend their time focusing on why the Tories are so bad for the country, but I don’t think it’s necessary anymore, people get it. The danger over the next 5 years is that Scotland gets Left behind, deemed of no importance by the Tory government, and the SNP won’t get their referendum if all they do is complain. They need to be quiet for now, work diligently in the background and analyze it to the extent that at least 75% of the country can see there are no benefits whatsoever to renaming as part of the uk.
What the country needs to do is compete negate the need for people to vote based on religion and the football team they support. Just this week, sir Rod Stewart has been told he’s unwelcome at Celtic park because he congratulated Boris Johnson in a tweet. And you’d be hard pressed to find many life long die hard rangers fans who voted to leave in the previous referendum. The bitterness between the two forms such a divide that it can absolutely impact a vote on whether or not to separate from the union.
So much of Scotland leans to the left at the moment but I’m confident that if you ask 100 people what the left represents, a large Portion couldn’t explain it to you. So many SNP supporters spend their time focusing on why the Tories are so bad for the country, but I don’t think it’s necessary anymore, people get it. The danger over the next 5 years is that Scotland gets Left behind, deemed of no importance by the Tory government, and the SNP won’t get their referendum if all they do is complain. They need to be quiet for now, work diligently in the background and analyze it to the extent that at least 75% of the country can see there are no benefits whatsoever to renaming as part of the uk.
I suspect not too far under the surface of the conservative and unionist party is that if you had an independent Scotland the electoral maths for what's left of the UK (and certainly for england) would have a huge conservative majority
I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson (not so reluctantly) agree to an independence referendum and I wouldn't be too surprised if he and the UK government largely stayed out of it hoping for an independence victory (without ever saying that outright)
Probably wants to get a free trade agreement for the while of the UK first with the EU rather than trying to negotiate both seperations at once... But when he has one I expect an indy ref soon after (that said the free trade agreement with the EU may actually take years longer than he currently says)
I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson (not so reluctantly) agree to an independence referendum and I wouldn't be too surprised if he and the UK government largely stayed out of it hoping for an independence victory (without ever saying that outright)
Probably wants to get a free trade agreement for the while of the UK first with the EU rather than trying to negotiate both seperations at once... But when he has one I expect an indy ref soon after (that said the free trade agreement with the EU may actually take years longer than he currently says)
Uddingston? It’s a small world!Don't forget the wafers mate! I love that Tunnoch's is my town's claim to fame
If the UK leaves the EU in about six weeks time, as now seems likely, Scotland will leave the EU as well.
Which, as I understand it, means that an independent Scotland would then need to reapply for EU membership and, until accepted, would need to survive on its own without hand-outs from London and from Brussels for anything up to ten years or so while Brussels makes up its mind about Turkey, The Balkan States, etc, before they get round to accepting Scotland's request to join.
And add on the costs if the Rest of UK insist on a Divorce Settlerment a la Brexit but for 300 years of marriage and not 50 years of marriage.
And then how much of the UK's £ 1.3 trillion debt transfers from London to Edinburgh after 300 years ?? Got to be some of it.....
It's going to be difficult for the heart to beat the head in a cost benefit analysis, I think, but never underestimate the size of the chip on someone's shoulder
Which, as I understand it, means that an independent Scotland would then need to reapply for EU membership and, until accepted, would need to survive on its own without hand-outs from London and from Brussels for anything up to ten years or so while Brussels makes up its mind about Turkey, The Balkan States, etc, before they get round to accepting Scotland's request to join.
And add on the costs if the Rest of UK insist on a Divorce Settlerment a la Brexit but for 300 years of marriage and not 50 years of marriage.
And then how much of the UK's £ 1.3 trillion debt transfers from London to Edinburgh after 300 years ?? Got to be some of it.....
It's going to be difficult for the heart to beat the head in a cost benefit analysis, I think, but never underestimate the size of the chip on someone's shoulder
Pretty clear how much the SNP benefit from the split pro-union vote between Tory, Labour and Lib Dem in virtually every constituency. 53.2% of Scots still voted for expressly anti-independence parties.
I expect there will be a lot of sabre rattling but realistically there's no chance of another referendum until after the next Holyrood elections. There's no point having a referendum before we have an idea of the final trading relationship between the UK and Europe in any case.
If the SNP were a little more competent they could spend the interim trying to reverse the education standards that have fallen off a cliff on their watch. And maybe do something about the enormous deficit if they're actually serious about rejoining the EU when independent.
I expect there will be a lot of sabre rattling but realistically there's no chance of another referendum until after the next Holyrood elections. There's no point having a referendum before we have an idea of the final trading relationship between the UK and Europe in any case.
If the SNP were a little more competent they could spend the interim trying to reverse the education standards that have fallen off a cliff on their watch. And maybe do something about the enormous deficit if they're actually serious about rejoining the EU when independent.
Is it true that Spain could veto Scotland’s application anyway?
What would party politics look like in Scotland after independence? Would the Conservatives/Labour stick around with their own new leaders or would you see entire new prominent parties pop up.
I think you’ll have essentially the same parties, but obviously with no longer any connection to their Westminster counterparts. So you’ll essentially have your archetypal left/centre-left Labour Party, and centre-right/right Conservative party, as you’d expect from any western democracy.
I‘d be more interested to see how the SNP would align themselves in an independent Scotland. Do they just carry on as a centre-left progressive party and risk competition from a fresh Labour Party, or would they just attempt to integrate them or merge into a larger left-wing party. And would the Lib Dem remnants even bother setting up a liberal party or do they just give up and individually try to find a new political home amongst any of the other parties.
Hard for Scotland to leave as they will be a very small entity on their own and untangling themselves from the UK and remaining within the EU (if possible) would be far from simple.
A united Ireland might be more practical but I have no idea how you might persuade the protestant half of NI to go along I have no idea.
A united Ireland might be more practical but I have no idea how you might persuade the protestant half of NI to go along I have no idea.
Any member state can veto it. That said, I think it’s the least of the plethora of problems there are with independence. The biggest in my view would be what happens to their massive dependence on trade with the UK internal market if they leave and join the EU. UK frictionless trade with the EU will now end one way or another so what happens to all that UK dependent industry and 15% of Scottish jobs if Scotland leaves the UK and becomes an EU member state? Despite the SNP trying to sell the idea that Brexit makes Independence necessary. It actually makes it a lot more problematic for them.
Andrew Neil did a very good job of exposing a lot of the other hypocrisy and incoherence in Sturgeon‘s movement in his interview with her for this GE
When you listen to Sturgeon in this interview and the more fanatical SNP followers, it might be a good thing to remind them that the best way for Scotland to get its independence from the rest of the UK is to let the rest of the UK vote in the IndyRef 2.
Independence guaranteed.
Notice the GE result - the Unionist MPs now in the minority might hint at changes to come.
‘Tis indeed! The home of the Caramel Wafer! Still living here or are you elsewhere these days?
At the moment the NI population is
Protestants 48%
Catholics 45%
And for such a change to occur smoothly it will require more than a simple majority in a referendum. I think we are quite a way from the point where this could occur.
Breaking up the union to own the
Sorry....Don't understand.
It's just a dumb joke. The implication of your post was that the way some Scots are talking about independence makes other Brits want them out of the UK, which is very much an emotional reason for something that would be historically massive.
Oh....I agree 101% that it will absolutely, positively, definitely not occur smoothly.....Nutters on both sides of the divide.
The truth is that a lot of English people would want England to be an independent nation. The relationship with Wales is different but they’d be happy if Scotland and NI were no longer part of the Union.
Yepp....Agree....Absolutely huge and massive piece of history if it was to happen.
But if the same ' Feck you, I've had enough of giving you money ' can bring about Brexit when the public were allowed the chance to vote, I think there are probably tens of millions of English, Welsh and Irish who would, again, say ' Feck you as well, I've had enough of giving you money '
Emotional ?? Of course it's emotional and knee-jerk, but we all have our limits as Brexit has shown.....
We certanly do have our limits. As Brexit has indeed shown.
I'd be happy for them but not so much for England.
I wonder how much Sturgeon is willing to push this if Boris doesn't allow a referendum.
Could she go down the Catalonia route? What a can of works that would open, especially if leave ended up winning....
I doubt it though and instead we'll hear 5 years of 'give us independence referendum' 'nope' ad nauseum.
Could she go down the Catalonia route? What a can of works that would open, especially if leave ended up winning....
I doubt it though and instead we'll hear 5 years of 'give us independence referendum' 'nope' ad nauseum.
She definitely won't. An illegal referendum is a gigantic waste of time, as Catalonia has proven. Doubt it would even get a 40% turnout.
Problem is that you tend to get all those in favour turning out whilst those against stay at home so it proves nothing whatsoever.
I just hope that past mistakes are learnt from. You want the people to be fully informed and fully engaged about leaving a political union and all the potential outcomes. Hard exit, soft exit, everything from economy to border control (not just England but NI too) to national security.
If the question is just 'Do you want to leave or remain?' which plays on people's emotions, it could be another potential nightmare and it will prove that we humans never learn.
If the question is just 'Do you want to leave or remain?' which plays on people's emotions, it could be another potential nightmare and it will prove that we humans never learn.
Last edited:
I dont think it would be an "illegal" referendum
If the SNP enacted a referendum it wouldn't be a legally binding referendum that compels the UK government to act - but i also dont think it would be illegal for them to do so if it is to test public opinion for example - i cant for example see Boris lining up the police, water cannons or troops to keep people from voting.
Not illegal in a seditious sense, but the obvious reaction for pro-union would just be to boycott it. The Catalonia referendum was something like 90% yes to independence, but on a 40% turnout. So essentially meaningless.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Edit: working now.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
has anyone got their finger on the pulse in Scotland? Will this force her to resign?
I have a particular dislike for Sturgeon, and do not like her crusade. But she’s a hell of a politician, and the SNP would be dramatically weaker without her being front and centre.
It is really looking like she's going to have to step down. Wow. Have to say I never thought this would happen but it just won't go away.