The second half of the first quote is in that interview, I didn't hear the first. The stats don't appear to be realistic, though if the quote wasn't majority but largest single religion, it wouldn't be inconceivable given that Christianity has fallen from 85% to 50% in a similar amount of time. So if that fell to c. 30% along that trend, and there was a ton of immigration..dunno. Apparently Pew Research said it could reach near 20%. So he's deffo off a bit. That was in 2006 if that's any mitigation - as he says his views have changed and co-authored a book with a Muslim authour more recently.
I'm shocked at the point on intelligence - did he really say that? I've literally just listened to about 4 hours of his discussion that very topic with 2 different academics on his making sense podcast and he very clearly says he doesn't believe in intelligence tests, and further calls that topic the 'third rail of genetics'.
He has acknowledged that his estimate was wrong, but that's about it. He just said that he saw the stats, thought it was right and it turned out it was wrong. But, it isn't just a case of getting it wrong. He got his stats from a book called Eurabia by Bat Ye'or, a book that among other things argues that the elites are conspiring by bringing in Muslim immigrants to weaken Europe, and the estimate was more or less a mathematical impossibility. Remember, his estimate was with 0 immigration, not a ton.
Regarding intelligence, here it's naturally more bits and pieces. It started when he had Charles Murray on his podcast, author of infamous
The Bell Curve (and probably the most racist book ever written,
Human Accomplishment: The Pursuit of Excellence in the Arts and Sciences, 800 B.C. to 1950). According to Harris, Charles Murray is the most unfairly maligned person in his lifetime.
There is an observed racial IQ gap between white and black people of 10-15 points, or 2/3 to 1 standard deviations. Harris and Murray would say 15, probably the most famous scientists on the topic like Richard Nisbett, Eric Turkheimer and James Flynn would say 10. There are arguments to be made about IQ as a concept and the validity of this observed gap, but that is what the numbers we have show.
So, given that we take these numbers seriously, there are three possibilities. 1) Genetics do not influence these differences. 2) Genetics favour black people over white people. 3) Genetics favour white people over black people.
As for what the science says, a good literature review is
Intelligence: New Findings and Theoretical Developments, published by the American Psychology Association.
For what Harris has said on the subject, we have his
podcast episode with Charles Murray, called Forbidden Knowledge, we have his
e-mail correspondence with Ezra Klein that Harris leaked to make Klein look bad, and we have the
podcast the two did together afterwards. There's also an
article published in Vox (where Klein was editor) about Harris' podcast in Murray, written by IQ experts Nisbett, Turkheimer and Harden.
Back to what Harris thinks. Is genetics irrelevant when comparing the intelligence of black people and white people? No, as Harris says, it would be a miracle:
Sam Harris said:
Among the many uncontroversial facts that the Vox paper elides is that once we make environments truly equivalent (equally enriched, stable, motivating, etc.) ANY difference we notice between people (or between groups) will be due to genes. What’s more, we should EXPECT such differences for most things we care about (along with most things we don’t care about). It would be a miracle if the mean value for any heritable trait were precisely the same across two genetically distinct populations, generation after generation. Does this matter? I don’t think so. As Murray and I spelled out repeatedly, we still need to treat people as individuals. This is not an “anodyne” claim meant to conceal our white supremacy (as the authors suggest) but the only ethical and reasonable thing to do. The authors write as though any proven genetic difference in intelligence between races would be morally and politically catastrophic—and so the only remedy is to lie about the state of our knowledge and defame anyone not taken in by these lies as a “racialist” (really “racist) who is peddling “pseudoscience.”
And just in case miracles are possible, no, Harris doesn't think so:
Sam Harris said:
I’m not familiar with the other authors, but most of what I’ve seen from Nisbett on the topic of IQ betrays his prior ideological commitments. He knows what he wants the data to say, and he will twist them until he gets the answer he finds consoling. For what it’s worth, I’d much prefer to read the data his way too—it would be far easier, and require absolutely no moral or intellectual courage, to just blame the environment (read: the consequences of persistent inequality and white racism). But I find that impossible. For a critical review of Nisbett’s book, see:
http://laplab.ucsd.edu/articles2/Lee2010.pdf
So we know Harris thinks genetics is relevant. The usual trick for a lot of people here, and one that Harris uses himself sometimes, is to say that this is just a statistical necessity. You take two populations, here black people and white people, and when you compare them then it's just a fact that they will never be 100 % equal. Is that what Harris actually means here? No, it's not.
If we were talking about a statistical quirk like this, then we'd be talking about e.g. maybe 0.000000002 points in favour of any side. Basically random chance, right?
Klein had talked with James Flynn (the Flynn effect is named after him) before his talk with Harris. Flynn said a couple of things.
James Flynn said:
I think it is more probably than not that the IQ difference between black and white Americans is environmental. As a social scientist, I cannot be sure if they have a genetic advantage or disadvantage.
Here Flynn says that he thinks the observed gap is probably environmental. He then also says (you'll find this in the podcast transcript), that with the evidence we currently have (if you read the literature review posted above then you'll already know that we have no direct evidence of genetic differences), then it's perfectly possible that we'd find e.g. a 2 point genetic difference in favor of black people and a 12 point environmental difference in favor of white people, giving a net 10 point observed difference in favor of white people (it doesn't really make sense to view nature-nurture like this, but you get the point). What does Harris have to say to this? " Sure, sure, many things are possible. We’re trying to judge on what is plausible"
So, Harris thinks that it's impossible for genetics not to leave a gap, and he thinks the only plausible explanation is that white people are genetically smarter than black people. If anyone wants to hang on to the fact that he says it's
possible, well, he has also said that it's possible that Jesus resurrected and Harris is not a Christian.
This shows that Harris thinks white people are smarter than black people because of genetics, but we can go further. Even if we accept the view of scientists like Flynn, Nisbett, Turkheimer and Harden saying that the observed gap is 10 points rather than the 15 points according to political pundit Charles Murray, that's still 2/3 of a standard deviation. IQ tests are calibrated so that the mean is 100 and the SD is 15, that means that 68 % would score between 85-115. When Harris says that the only plausible explanation is that white people are genetically smarter than black people, then he either has to be making shit up because he has no idea what he's talking about (that's the case either way, of course, but for different reasons), or he has to think that white people are
substantially smarter than black people because of genetics. There is no fecking way, not even close, that someone could say that e.g. 1 point in favour of black people would be implausible while 1 point in favour of white people would be plausible. We're not even close to that kind of sensitivity.