Race for top 4 | Finito.

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
58,426
Location
Canada
You were saying. I can seriously see Liverpool leapfrogging us.
You think we lose 3 games out of west ham, bournemouth, Chelsea, wolves and Fulham, while they win every game? Really? Now when we finally have rest between games for the first time all season.
 

Woziak

Full Member
Joined
May 8, 2018
Messages
3,919
Why is it funny to assume Brighton won't? It is absolutely bonkers to assume Brighton will win their last 8 games straight when they haven't managed more than 3 wins in a row all season. Except now they play city... Arsenal... Newcastle... Villa. Come on. Obviously they aren't getting close to their max. Liverpool actually might. 72 guarantees it for us.

We aren't in a top 4 race. The only reason it looks like it is because we still have games in hand. 5 remaining games, we will get it with a game or 2 to spare.
I hope your right because a total of 49 PL goals from a team called Manchester United playing 32 games seems hugely undeserving of a top 4 position. We need huge investment to improve this squad.
 

Chief123

Full Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2013
Messages
12,787
You think we lose 3 games out of west ham, bournemouth, Chelsea, wolves and Fulham, while they win every game? Really? Now when we finally have rest between games for the first time all season.
I do think the panic is excessive. We’ve got 3 wins in us which I think will be all the home games. Anything from the 2 away games will be a bonus.

I do think Liverpool will win all their remaining games. As tight as their games have been they’ve got the rhythm and momentum now. I just think we’ll stumble over the line though.
 

Chief123

Full Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2013
Messages
12,787
Varane being back alongside Shaw for the remaining games is a big factor.
 

Beachryan

More helpful with spreadsheets than Phurry
Joined
May 13, 2010
Messages
11,822
I wonder how the team will adjust to actually having a week between matches. That cadence is a privaledge we've not had for 5 months. It should make us fresher, but who knows.

We're definitely gassed. 2nd halves have been atrocious for a long, long time. Would like to think a full 7 days between matches will help, but at this point the poor team is probably on autopilot.
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
58,426
Location
Canada
I hope your right because a total of 49 PL goals from a team called Manchester United playing 32 games seems hugely undeserving of a top 4 position. We need huge investment to improve this squad.
Yeah it's not good but when you look at our attackers this season, it also isn't surprising why.
 

padr81

Full Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2015
Messages
12,083
Supports
Man City
I hope your right because a total of 49 PL goals from a team called Manchester United playing 32 games seems hugely undeserving of a top 4 position. We need huge investment to improve this squad.
You are also the only team in the league still in single digits for goals conceded at home. You've only shipped like 8 goals at OT. You are winning your home games.
 

TheLiverBird

Full Member
Joined
Mar 4, 2014
Messages
1,712
You think we lose 3 games out of west ham, bournemouth, Chelsea, wolves and Fulham, while they win every game? Really? Now when we finally have rest between games for the first time all season.
I’m hoping you’ll lose too West Ham and draw 2 games, that’ll do me please

It would mean providing Liverpool win our remaining games, that we’d achieve top 4 on goal difference

Funnily enough I can see in your remaining 5 games Utd losing 1 and drawing 2 “potentially” of course, be it down too pressure perhaps

but I’m still weery of Liverpools consistency regardless too how some of our remaining games look on paper

Realistically top 4 is done, but the EPL loves twists and turns
 

McGrathsipan

Dawn’s less famous husband
Joined
Jun 25, 2009
Messages
24,850
Location
Dublin
I’m hoping you’ll lose too West Ham and draw 2 games, that’ll do me please

It would mean providing Liverpool win our remaining games, that we’d achieve top 4 on goal difference

Funnily enough I can see in your remaining 5 games Utd losing 1 and drawing 2 “potentially” of course, be it down too pressure perhaps

but I’m still weery of Liverpools consistency regardless too how some of our remaining games look on paper

Realistically top 4 is done, but the EPL loves twists and turns
It's far from done


I wonder how the team will adjust to actually having a week between matches. That cadence is a privaledge we've not had for 5 months. It should make us fresher, but who knows.

We're definitely gassed. 2nd halves have been atrocious for a long, long time. Would like to think a full 7 days between matches will help, but at this point the poor team is probably on autopilot.
You can't put the amount of missed chances to tiredness again and again and again.
It's just shit finishing. That Bruno effort against spurs when he hits the bar cost us two points.

If we had any form of half competent striker instead of Martial and fecking Weghorst we'd be comfortable in third by now.

I said we won't score enough months ago and here we are.

I'm very worried about top 4 as we just don't have the goals and we need things to go our way in tight games
 

Borys

Statistics Wizard
Joined
May 10, 2013
Messages
9,201
Location
Bielsko Biala, Poland
I’m 50/50 on whether we get it now. If there’s one thing we know about this group of players it’s the more the pressure is on, the worse they perform.

pressure is on now.
How do you know that? I'd say we've done pretty well under pressure.
I don't think our last poor results are because we're bottlers. We've seen us doing worse in second half on many many occasions before. The problem now is we can barely run at this stage.
 

Leftback99

Might have a bedwetting fetish.
Joined
Jan 11, 2015
Messages
14,851
12 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss at home all season. Yet you pick a game we got a dumb red card early and a game amongst a great run of form where we dropped 2 points. Relax, we are fine. We are playing 10th, 12th, 13th (away), 14th and 15th (away) to close out the season. Wolves, Fulham and Chelsea are 18th, 7th and 13th with their away records this season, west ham and bournemouth are 15th and 16th in the league with their home records, and none have anything to play for.

Whether we need 3 wins and 2 losses or 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss... It's irrelevant. We will get more than enough points. For the first time since August we will have actual breaks between games where we can recover and train properly. Thinking a loss today changes anything, by far our hardest game remaining, is complete nonsense. We are literally about to enter our easiest run of fixtures all season and with the most amount of rest between games we've had all season.
Why do so many argue against facts in this thread? Does that last minute loss make it easier or harder for us to finish top 4 than if we drew? It's a simple question with an easy answer.
 

whitbyviking

Full Member
Joined
Aug 15, 2022
Messages
2,520
Hopefully we get Garnacho back to give us a bit of a lift. That way we can bring him on, move Rashford up front and get rid whichever non-threatening pseudo striker is playing at that time. At least then we have a goal threat from all 3 forward players.

It's a huge test of character for the team and squad this "race" for the top 4. If they crumble the atmosphere will be awful and it will affect the FA Cup badly, we could end up getting humped there. It's time for them to squeeze that last few percent out of their bodies, it's been a long season but a lot of our mistakes and issues seem to be related to stupidity, rather than tiredness. Likes of Eriksen, Casemiro, Varane, Garnacho, Martial have had significant time off this season and therefore should have enough left for the last few games.

We really need to work out what to do with De Gea in game too. The amount of pressure he puts us under with dreadful long kicking is ridiculous. He'd be better kicking every long ball out for a throw in, at least we'd have time to get in shape and not have the ball coming immediately back.
 

Mickeza

still gets no respect
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Messages
14,143
Location
Deepthroating information to Howard Nurse.
Fulham home and Bournemouth away aren’t gimmes. Bournemouth have won some big games at home this season and Fulham should have been 3 up before they imploded with the Willian red card in the FA Cup. A point yesterday would have meant we could have drawn against West Ham and then only needed 2 wins and a draw from the last 4 - it would have been done in my opinion. Having to win 3 from 4 if we don’t beat West Ham is tricky.
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,721
People are using results from our good pre-world cup form as a basis of confidence but its irrelevant. If these lads dont suddenly turn their form around the games will be difficult. We basically dont have a functioning midfield or attack right now and our defence is make-shift.

This is as bad as the team has been as a collective under ETH. Just have to take it game by game and hope they actually show up in a few. We should win 3 easily but not if our players dont change their form.
 

Telsim

Full Member
Joined
Nov 7, 2021
Messages
5,108
You do realise 7th place = Conference?
Not yet. 24/25.

But I think winning the EFL puts us in the playoffs for Conference anyway, so we can't escape it. Ugh... We must finish 4th.
 

DRJosh

Full Member
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Messages
3,047
Location
Melbourne, Australia
Supports
United minus the Glazers
We’d be knocked out in the early stages of the CL anyway if we qualify so I’m assuming an entry in to Europa beckons then ?
 

Siorac

Full Member
Joined
Sep 1, 2010
Messages
23,838
We aren't in a top 4 race.
We absolutely are. I'm not sure why we're pretending otherwise.

If Liverpool drop points at the weekend AND we win, then sure, it's practically over. But if it's the other way around, it's still very much a race. You're taking it for granted that this side is going to perform under pressure, which is a brave call, to say the least.
 

Offside

Euro 2016 sweepstake winner
Joined
Jun 9, 2012
Messages
26,927
Location
London
We aren’t in a top 4 dogfight yet. Beat West Ham and it’s looking very comfortable. However, fail to win that and we could be in the shit. You’d still back us to win 3 of our last 4 though looking at those fixtures. That’s assuming Liverpool win all their games which they may not.
 

Drizzle

Full Member
Joined
Mar 12, 2021
Messages
1,350
We have all but sewn up top 4.
If you insist.

If we lose or draw against West Ham (more likely than not) then we're officially in emergency mode, with very little room for slip ups. Just one shitty VAR decision or stupid handball away from full-blown crisis.

We know United cannot put games away even if we dominate long periods of them. We know we don't have a lot of goals in us. We know we fall away dramatically in second halves.

But it's OK, because we've all but sewn it up. Phew.
 

Chaky_Best

Supports 'a joke of a club'.
Joined
Nov 26, 2013
Messages
3,025
Location
Vegeta's Planet
Updated remaining games :

United 63 points, potentially 76 points

vs West Ham (A) ==> Draw
vs Wolves (H) ==> Win
vs Bmouth (A) ==> Win
vs Chelsea (H) ==> Win
vs Fulham (H) ==> Win

Newcastle 65 points, potentially 75 points

vs Arsenal (H) ==> Lose
vs Leeds (A) ==> Win
vs Brighton (H) ==> Win
vs Leicester (A) ==> Win
vs Chelsea (A) ==> Draw

Scouses sc*** 59 points potentially 71 points.

vs Brendford (H) ==> Win
vs Leicester (A) ==> Win
vs Villa (H) ==> Win
vs Southampton (A) ==>Win

Villa 54 points, potentially 63 points

vs Wolves (A) ==> Win
vs Spurs (H) ==> Win
vs Pool (A) ==> Lose
vs Brighton (H) ==>Win

Spurs 54 points, potentially 61 points

vs Palace (H) ==> Win
vs Villa (A) ==> Lose
vs Brendofrd (H) ==> Win
vs Leeds (A) ==> Draw
 

Woziak

Full Member
Joined
May 8, 2018
Messages
3,919
You do realise 7th place = Conference?
Updated remaining games :

United 63 points, potentially 76 points

vs West Ham (A) ==> Draw
vs Wolves (H) ==> Win
vs Bmouth (A) ==> Win
vs Chelsea (H) ==> Win
vs Fulham (H) ==> Win

Newcastle 65 points, potentially 75 points

vs Arsenal (H) ==> Lose
vs Leeds (A) ==> Win
vs Brighton (H) ==> Win
vs Leicester (A) ==> Win
vs Chelsea (A) ==> Draw

Scouses sc*** 59 points potentially 71 points.

vs Brendford (H) ==> Win
vs Leicester (A) ==> Win
vs Villa (H) ==> Win
vs Southampton (A) ==>Win

Villa 54 points, potentially 63 points

vs Wolves (A) ==> Win
vs Spurs (H) ==> Win
vs Pool (A) ==> Lose
vs Brighton (H) ==>Win

Spurs 54 points, potentially 61 points

vs Palace (H) ==> Win
vs Villa (A) ==> Lose
vs Brendofrd (H) ==> Win
vs Leeds (A) ==> Draw
why have you not included Brighton they could go to Newcastle and win ?
 

Woziak

Full Member
Joined
May 8, 2018
Messages
3,919
We’d be knocked out in the early stages of the CL anyway if we qualify so I’m assuming an entry in to Europa beckons then ?
Hopefully we get Garnacho back to give us a bit of a lift. That way we can bring him on, move Rashford up front and get rid whichever non-threatening pseudo striker is playing at that time. At least then we have a goal threat from all 3 forward players.

It's a huge test of character for the team and squad this "race" for the top 4. If they crumble the atmosphere will be awful and it will affect the FA Cup badly, we could end up getting humped there. It's time for them to squeeze that last few percent out of their bodies, it's been a long season but a lot of our mistakes and issues seem to be related to stupidity, rather than tiredness. Likes of Eriksen, Casemiro, Varane, Garnacho, Martial have had significant time off this season and therefore should have enough left for the last few games.

We really need to work out what to do with De Gea in game too. The amount of pressure he puts us under with dreadful long kicking is ridiculous. He'd be better kicking every long ball out for a throw in, at least we'd have time to get in shape and not have the ball coming immediately back.
I do sort of agree with this, instead of cruising to CL qualification as we should we are making things difficult, but if you keep picking certain players that are missing too many chances you have to be ruthless and change it up.

Right now our best team to get a result is a similar set up to when we played against Villa with the chance of changing Garnaucho if fit for Sancho and maybe starting Maguire to allow Shaw to go back to left back and give us more of a threat there.

We should pick for West Ham the following ; D De Gea, AWB, Maguire, Lindelof, L Shaw, Casemeiro, Ericsen, Sabitzer, Bruno (RW), Rashford, Garnaucho or Sancho based on fitness; Bench J Butland, Dalot, Fred, Garnaucho, Antony, Weghorst , T Malacia , F Pellistri, Martial.
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
58,426
Location
Canada
Why do so many argue against facts in this thread? Does that last minute loss make it easier or harder for us to finish top 4 than if we drew? It's a simple question with an easy answer.
The easy answer is it literally makes no difference. The odds of getting 3 wins at least from that group of he's, or 2 wins and 2 draws at least, is virtually no difference.
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
58,426
Location
Canada
If you insist.

If we lose or draw against West Ham (more likely than not) then we're officially in emergency mode, with very little room for slip ups. Just one shitty VAR decision or stupid handball away from full-blown crisis.

We know United cannot put games away even if we dominate long periods of them. We know we don't have a lot of goals in us. We know we fall away dramatically in second halves.

But it's OK, because we've all but sewn it up. Phew.
If we lose to west ham, we still have room to lose 1 more game actually, even if Liverpool wins every game. There are 5 games left, being able to lose 2 of the last 5 and still qualify, while the competitor needs to win every game while you drop points in 3/5 games, is not a race, it is as comfortable as it is realistically ever going to be. Especially given the fixtures. If we had Brighton's fixture list, yeah it'd be different. But given ours, no it should be fine, and if we throw it away from here then it is a bottle job of epic proportions given fixtures remaining, points ahead, and finally having break between games. We have 13 points from the last 18 available in the league from a tougher group of fixtures with a hectic schedule, not sure why we'd now struggle to get 9/15 from an easier group and fewer away games.
 

Utd heap

Models for Coin.
Joined
Aug 15, 2006
Messages
21,797
If we lose to west ham, we still have room to lose 1 more game actually, even if Liverpool wins every game. There are 5 games left, being able to lose 2 of the last 5 and still qualify, while the competitor needs to win every game while you drop points in 3/5 games, is not a race, it is as comfortable as it is realistically ever going to be. Especially given the fixtures. If we had Brighton's fixture list, yeah it'd be different. But given ours, no it should be fine, and if we throw it away from here then it is a bottle job of epic proportions given fixtures remaining, points ahead, and finally having break between games. We have 13 points from the last 18 available in the league from a tougher group of fixtures with a hectic schedule, not sure why we'd now struggle to get 9/15 from an easier group and fewer away games.
End the thread until Sunday! Spot on :)
 

RedRocket9908

Full Member
Joined
Feb 7, 2023
Messages
2,963
Location
Manchester
The easy answer is it literally makes no difference. The odds of getting 3 wins at least from that group of he's, or 2 wins and 2 draws at least, is virtually no difference.
We need 4 wins or 3 wins and 2 draws from our last 5 as it stands, if we get less than 11 points and Brighton win all their remaining games they'll finish above us.
 

Utd heap

Models for Coin.
Joined
Aug 15, 2006
Messages
21,797
We need 4 wins or 3 wins and 2 draws from our last 5 as it stands, if we get less than 11 points and Brighton win all their remaining games they'll finish above us.
If Brighton win all their remaining games they deserve to win the league TBH
 

Offside

Euro 2016 sweepstake winner
Joined
Jun 9, 2012
Messages
26,927
Location
London
We need 4 wins or 3 wins and 2 draws from our last 5 as it stands, if we get less than 11 points and Brighton win all their remaining games they'll finish above us.
Brighton gunna win away at Newcastle and Arsenal and beat City at home? They lost to Forest last week.
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
58,426
Location
Canada
We need 4 wins or 3 wins and 2 draws from our last 5 as it stands, if we get less than 11 points and Brighton win all their remaining games they'll finish above us.
Brighton play city at home, Arsenal, Newcastle and villa away. They aren't getting max points. So no. Liverpool might get 8 wins in a row and end on 71, even if it is unlikely, but 3 wins is enough in that scenario.
 

Rocksy

Full Member
Joined
Sep 17, 2016
Messages
1,347
Supports
Blackburn Rovers
Brighton play city at home, Arsenal, Newcastle and villa away. They aren't getting max points. So no. Liverpool might get 8 wins in a row and end on 71, even if it is unlikely, but 3 wins is enough in that scenario.
Think you’re right. United’s “bad form” is a bit overplayed, you’ve played well against and beaten Brentford, Everton, Villa, and Forest in the last few weeks, drawn at Spurs. Yes, the performances are sketchy in places and you don’t score enough goals, but Garnacho and Varane will be back soon. Liverpool’s form is similar, not massively better. They’re shaky at the back, and United don’t concede at home.

It’s closer than it should be, but I think United get over the line.
 

Its all gone Shane Long

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 1, 2023
Messages
220
Think you’re right. United’s “bad form” is a bit overplayed, you’ve played well against and beaten Brentford, Everton, Villa, and Forest in the last few weeks, drawn at Spurs. Yes, the performances are sketchy in places and you don’t score enough goals, but Garnacho and Varane will be back soon. Liverpool’s form is similar, not massively better. They’re shaky at the back, and United don’t concede at home.

It’s closer than it should be, but I think United get over the line.
God damn a Blackburn fan, god a miss the days of games at Elwood Park. I know this isn’t the thread but I hope ye lot are promoted soon.
 

Shark

@NotShark
Joined
Feb 1, 2012
Messages
26,699
Location
Ireland
If we lose to west ham, we still have room to lose 1 more game actually, even if Liverpool wins every game. There are 5 games left, being able to lose 2 of the last 5 and still qualify, while the competitor needs to win every game while you drop points in 3/5 games, is not a race, it is as comfortable as it is realistically ever going to be. Especially given the fixtures. If we had Brighton's fixture list, yeah it'd be different. But given ours, no it should be fine, and if we throw it away from here then it is a bottle job of epic proportions given fixtures remaining, points ahead, and finally having break between games. We have 13 points from the last 18 available in the league from a tougher group of fixtures with a hectic schedule, not sure why we'd now struggle to get 9/15 from an easier group and fewer away games.
Losing another game just because we can isn't the best way to look at it. Lose tomorrow again and the team could fall off a cliff and drop more points. Chelsea could collect themselves even further by the time we play them at home also.

We should be beating West Ham away tomorrow no question.