Rasmus Højlund | Signed for United

[DJ_21]

People are stupid. It’s just a bunch of bitching or people saying “we should get Kane!” repeatedly.

I also think far too many are underrating this kids potential. A decent fee and I think it’s an underrated brilliant signing because it signals we are more willing to trust our evaluations over needing every signing to be one of the best in their league before going in for them and being quoted 9 figure prices.

100%. The same people will be moaning when we have to replace Kane in a few years time. This guys set up to be world class for the next 10 years.

 

[RedRonaldo]

Right but these guys were arguably bigger potentials than Hojlund.

Höjlund is objectively not worth the Atalanta asking price and it doesn't matter which way you try and slice it.

It’s really hard to give a fair comparison now as we are looking them from hindsight. But I agree Hojlund shouldn’t worth Atalanta’s asking price (€70m). But people thinking he shouldn’t worth more than €30-40m base on his “entire career” is kidding themselves too. I think it would probably ended up somewhere in between - around €50-60m range, probably €50m +10m add-ons.

 

[dasty]

This is a very stupid thread with 100 of pages of moaning and rambling because a 20 year old promising striker isn't as good as Kane. Reminds me of the Martinez thread last year, with over 100 pages of moaning that he isn't worth that much, he is too short for PL, he is not PL proven, PL strikers is gonna eat him for lunch, he had never played in the top leagues before, he is going to flop etc.

I trust in ETH's judgement way more than any caftards. ETH signed Haller, whom most people here thought of as a lumbering donkey with no redeeming features after his West Ham stint, and got him scoring 47 goals in 66 games, including 11 goals in CL. He signed a 34 year Huntelaar, whom was way past his prime, and got him scoring 53 goals in 121 games. The two strikers that he used in Ajax were target man with good physicality, movement off the ball, work rate, and hold up play. If ETH is willing to gamble on Hojlund, then I have all the belief in the world that Hojlund fits his profile, that he can develop and get the best out of him.

Hojlund is also a big fan of Man Utd growing up, which is evident if you look at his social media profile. He follows almost all United players and ex-players as well as the club page. He is also from Denmark, a place with a lot of Man Utd fans, so there is no reason to think that he is just saying it to get the move. This means that if he ever becomes a top striker, there is significantly lower risk of him wanting out.

 

[Idxomer]

Jonathan David, Lille.
He scored 30 league goals in two years with Belgium's Gent, then moved to Lille, where he scored 13 for a league champion in 2019-20, then raised his tally to 15 in 2021-22 and a whopping 24 last season. Within the Big Five leagues, only Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, Victor Osimhen and Alexandre Lacazette scored more.

David is approaching 100 career club goals, he's got 25 for Canada, and among high-level scorers he's also one of the most willing and effective pressers. Oh yeah, and he won't turn 24 until January.

Dusan Vlahovic, Juventus.
Bad series of injuries last season. Vlahovic had managed 14 goals and four assists from 28 chances created. That's down from his 29 goals in all competitions in 2021-22, but his down years would be phenomenal for most. He's a reliable space creator in the box, he can both hold the ball up or win headers when asked. And he might still be a few more years from his athletic peak. Juve out of the CL. Still only 23.

Kolo Muani, Eintracht Frankfurt.
After scoring 12 league goals and leading Nantes to the 2022 Coupe de France, he moved to Eintracht Frankfurt and one-upped himself in every possible way. He set a career high with 15 league goals, and his 11 assists were second most in the Bundesliga and more than he had managed in his previous two seasons combined. He scored a pair of goals in Champions League play, and he was a steady producer throughout the year, too -- even as Eintracht faded late in the season, he still scored seven goals in his last 11 overall matches. 24 years old.

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3 young players above, still haven't reached their peak. All seem more of a sure thing than Hojland, who is all potential at this point. Maybe our scouts have decided to pass on these players, I haven't seen anything saying why we have or have not looked at them.

If we were able to lock down Hojland for a low fee, great. Low risk, not the high expectations that have been hung around Maguire's and Antony's necks because of their price tags. If we are willing to pay near what Atalanta is reported to be holding out for (some 30 million more than we have apparently bid), what would strikers like the 3 above be priced at? No idea.

Do we go into next season and CL with one unproven 20 year old leading the line and hope we scored a diamond in the rough? Or do we look for more of a stop-gap? I think if we get Hojland, the pressure will be intense. If he doesn't deliver right away, he'll be a meme. He really needs to be the junior partner of a 2-man striker partnership. We play him for a year then pick up Kane for free in the summer?

quotes taken from:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/37949548/fc-100-best-men-strikers-2022-23

David and Muani are definitely as significant a risk as Hojlund. David has been in Ligue 1 for 3 seasons and he hasn't passed 14 non-penalty goals in any of them. Last season his whopping 24 goals were bolstered by 10 penalties. Lacazette scored 9 more non-pen goals than him. Muani is a little bit better but he's 24 and hasn't really had a breakout season in terms of scoring goals so far. His best goal tally is 13 non-pen goals in the league. He's a less natural striker than Martial and does his best work outside the penalty area.

Vhalovic is more proven and he had a good record for Fiorentina, some people who watched him though think that was a bit of a purple patch. He will definitely be more expensive than Hojlund.

 

[CM]

Ramos, Vlahovic, Watkins, Kolo Muani are all players you can test the waters with for 70m Eur that Atalanta are asking. And this is randomly off the top of my head.

This insinuation that you can't get a more established player of similar quality for that asking price is naive. A lot of posters haven't named strikers because that goes without saying.

None of those players are exactly established either. Vlahovic is maybe the closest but he hasn't kicked on in the way people expected and that's why Juventus are prepared to sell.

Ramos and Kolo Muani both have one good season behind them and would likely cost more anyway. Watkins is 27 years old and only just starting to deliver for a midtable Premier League side.

 

[RedCurry]

Rumours in the press tomorrow that Spurs will go after Toney if Kane joins Bayern

I’d imagine there’s demand for Toney even with his ban. Which team eventually pulls the trigger remains to be seen I guess.

 

[dinostar77]

Maybe they don't fit that number 9 which Erik wants whereas this guy does. Clearly there is something about Vlahovic which is putting us off making a move. We were loosely linked with Watkins a couple of weeks back. I can't shake a feeling of Ramos being underwhelming since the World Cup and suspect Kolo-Muani is a bit too similar to Rashford in our eyes.

Kolo-Muani has a €100mil price tag which put Bayern off.

A few of the big clubs looking for a no9 have passed on vlahovic despite juventus needing to sell to balance the books.

Agree Ramos has been underwhelming and Aston Villa arent going to part with Watkins unless it was silly silly money.

 

[roonster09]

Jonathan David, Lille.
He scored 30 league goals in two years with Belgium's Gent, then moved to Lille, where he scored 13 for a league champion in 2019-20, then raised his tally to 15 in 2021-22 and a whopping 24 last season. Within the Big Five leagues, only Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, Victor Osimhen and Alexandre Lacazette scored more.

David is approaching 100 career club goals, he's got 25 for Canada, and among high-level scorers he's also one of the most willing and effective pressers. Oh yeah, and he won't turn 24 until January.

Dusan Vlahovic, Juventus.
Bad series of injuries last season. Vlahovic had managed 14 goals and four assists from 28 chances created. That's down from his 29 goals in all competitions in 2021-22, but his down years would be phenomenal for most. He's a reliable space creator in the box, he can both hold the ball up or win headers when asked. And he might still be a few more years from his athletic peak. Juve out of the CL. Still only 23.

Kolo Muani, Eintracht Frankfurt.
After scoring 12 league goals and leading Nantes to the 2022 Coupe de France, he moved to Eintracht Frankfurt and one-upped himself in every possible way. He set a career high with 15 league goals, and his 11 assists were second most in the Bundesliga and more than he had managed in his previous two seasons combined. He scored a pair of goals in Champions League play, and he was a steady producer throughout the year, too -- even as Eintracht faded late in the season, he still scored seven goals in his last 11 overall matches. 24 years old.

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3 young players above, still haven't reached their peak. All seem more of a sure thing than Hojland, who is all potential at this point. Maybe our scouts have decided to pass on these players, I haven't seen anything saying why we have or have not looked at them.

If we were able to lock down Hojland for a low fee, great. Low risk, not the high expectations that have been hung around Maguire's and Antony's necks because of their price tags. If we are willing to pay near what Atalanta is reported to be holding out for (some 30 million more than we have apparently bid), what would strikers like the 3 above be priced at? No idea.

Do we go into next season and CL with one unproven 20 year old leading the line and hope we scored a diamond in the rough? Or do we look for more of a stop-gap? I think if we get Hojland, the pressure will be intense. If he doesn't deliver right away, he'll be a meme. He really needs to be the junior partner of a 2-man striker partnership. We play him for a year then pick up Kane for free in the summer?

quotes taken from:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/37949548/fc-100-best-men-strikers-2022-23

Jonathan David scored around 11 goals from penalties, his record and Vlahovic record are not better than Hojlund last season.

 

[Avero]

I'm really keen on Hojlund for United.

But charts like this don't do much for me.

Hojlund only played 1836 minutes last season and came off the bench 12 times. It's not representative to extrapolate that to a per 90 metric, then compare him to a bunch of other players who mainly played as starters.

By way of example, Hojlund's goals per 90 last season was 0.44 while Martial's was 0.55. You have to look beyond those numbers to see the way each of them helped their teams.

I don't believe that Martial is good enough for United, yet if we plotted him on the same chart he'd be pretty much at the very top right. You could say the same thing about Ronaldo the year before. And we all know how badly CR7 upset the team balance, contributing to Rashford only scoring 4 goals himself.

I'd rather have a CF who actually helps Rashford, Bruno, Antony et al score more, even if it means the CF himself scores less. The point should be to increase the overall team total rather than to help one man to stat pad.

This is why I'm mainly concentrating on our transfer target's style of play. It needs to mesh well with EtH's philosophy as well as his future teammates. That's where Hojlund looks like a good prospect imo. I'd be happy with him only ever getting to 15 goal per season in his prime, as long as he helps his teammates increase their own goal tallies at the same time. If I judge it by the eye test, I think he'd be capable of at least that much.

Regardless, I personally guess he'll be playing second fiddle to Rashford at CF for most of next season whatever happens. He'll get the chance to become the main man eventually, but it won't happen right away. If you just accept that Rashford will be our main striker either way, it helps make this transfer more palatable.

Good post

 

[Strelok]

Anyone know how tall this lad is?

According to most sources it's 191 cm. But tbh watching his clips I don't think he's that tall. Then there are some sources like Fifa 23 say 187 cm. Any idea?

 

[Wing Attack Plan R]

Jonathan David scored around 11 goals from penalties, his record and Vlahovic record are not better than Hojlund last season.

He had more than one season though, in the league.

 

[Lyng]

Anyone know how tall this lad is?

According to most sources it's 191 cm. But tbh watching his clips I don't think he's that tall. Then there are some sources like Fifa 23 say 187 cm. Any idea?

He is 191. Fifa 23 is wrong.

 

[Lash]

I have a feeling we'll end up paying a big fee, but it will have to be heavily performance related. I don't really mind if we do, I trust the recruitment team's belief he will be worth it (if we do end up getting him). He is a unique profile and bags of room for improvement.

 

[L1nk]

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No way will we pay this… if this is true it will no doubt be about 20/30 mill of addons

 

[Red Rash]

I know very little about Hojlund except for a few YouTube clips so I'm not really in a position to assess if he is the right striker but I definitely think this new strategy in the transfer market is the correct one.

Since EtH joined, except for Casemiro, his permanent signings have all been early to mid 20's with potential but not yet superstars.

Compared to the mistakes we made in previous regimes buying stop gaps and superstars on the way down, it's a refreshing new approach.

If we can get Hojlund for 50-60 million it's quite a high fee but in today's market it's nothing out of the ordinary and it's one of those signings that could have a huge payoff if he ends up becoming a very good or even world class striker.

 

[roonster09]

He had more than one season though, in the league.

14, 13, 13 league goals from open play in last 3 seasons and he played lot of mins too.

Hojlund scored 9 league goals in 1800 mins. Hojlund played in better league too.

 

[Strelok]

He is 191. Fifa 23 is wrong.

Yeah it seems thanks mate.

To have a good pace/acceleration at that height is actually pretty rare. We definitely should sign this lad imo. Let's hope Atalanta would stop being too greedy we're no longer rich.

 

[CG1010]

It's a massively flawed argument because for every Kane there's 1000 duds.

You can't take a generational striker and extrapolate from there. Players peak at different times and their skillets differ.

All Hojlund has done is have one decent season in his entire playing career. Hundreds of players have done the same in that league. I still remember the Belotti hype.

By the way, saying a player isn't worth 70m eur based on what they've done in their career so far isn't counting him out. It's calling a spade a spade.

A) it's not going to be 70m. The final price is yet to be negotiated. Either ways I don't give a shit to what the price would be.

B) You are quite outdated on the market prices then. Look at what we paid for Martial back in 2015. Or what we paid for Nani and Anderson in 2007. All these were "buying potential".

This place keeps cribbing about not buying young players with high potential and chasing established players from other clubs. But when we are linked to one, so much moaning ensues (not talking about you personally VP89 but talking in general).

 

[Real Name]

Better get him or cry why we didnt get him when he flourishes somewhere else.

 

[Kostov]

None of those players are exactly established either. Vlahovic is maybe the closest but he hasn't kicked on in the way people expected and that's why Juventus are prepared to sell.

Ramos and Kolo Muani both have one good season behind them and would likely cost more anyway. Watkins is 27 years old and only just starting to deliver for a midtable Premier League side.

Juventus also sold De Ligt last season, and are a bit of weirdos when it comes to selling players. Vlahovic seems to have more to his game compared to Hojlund imo, and should be considered at least.

 

[Wing Attack Plan R]

14, 13, 13 league goals from open play in last 3 seasons and he played lot of mins too.

Hojlund scored 9 league goals in 1800 mins. Hojlund played in better league too.

Any thoughts on why Hojland was left off that list? And you would agree that those names I listed are “other options “, wouldn’t you? People keep writing “if not Hojland, then who?”, so those are an example of 3 players , after a couple minutes of googling.

 

[Mainoldo]

Better get him or cry why we didnt get him when he flourishes somewhere else.

For £70m he best be the new Andrei Shevchenko.

 

[Judas]

Juventus also sold De Ligt last season, and are a bit of weirdos when it comes to selling players. Vlahovic seems to have more to his game compared to Hojlund imo, and should be considered at least.

Maybe right now, but Vlahovic's ceiling has probably already been identified. Whereas Hojlund clearly has been viewed to have a lot more potential.

 

[VP89]

Let's be honest though, Atalanta's current asking price is not their real asking price; it's a negotiation tactic, same as Chelsea with Mount. I'm sure the club have a Max they are prepared to pay and will walk if Atalanta don't budge.

I think it’s naive to think you can get Ramos or Muani for 70 Million, the quoted values for them are way higher.

Watkins similar quality? I don’t think so.
Vlahovic? Maybe.

Now this is a better post because at least we can have a discussion.

Do you really think Ramos and Kolo Muani can be gotten from 70m€? From Benfica who always got top dollar for their players, and Kolo Muani who has 4 yrs left on his contract (not to mention he may not be the classic 9 ETH might prefer) would go for 70m€

Why would you play 70m€ for Watkins?

Many would argue Vlahovic hasn't been good enough for a top team, is too one dimensional etc. I don't have anything against him, I'd be happy enough with him, but I haven't seen him or Hojlund much, so am happy enough we would get a proper 9 with either.

It’s really hard to give a fair comparison now as we are looking them from hindsight. But I agree Hojlund shouldn’t worth Atalanta’s asking price (€70m). But people thinking he shouldn’t worth more than €30-40m base on his “entire career” is kidding themselves too. I think it would probably ended up somewhere in between - around €50-60m range, probably €50m +10m add-ons.

All of these posts claiming certainty the fee won't be 70m EUR. We've sat at the table longer than Mount deal by a very long stretch and Romano said Atalanta won't budge below 70m EUR and have refused part player transactions.

We will see if they move below but they can't dick us around many weeks longer. As it stands 70 is their price and that's way too fecking high.

A) it's not going to be 70m. The final price is yet to be negotiated. Either ways I don't give a shit to what the price would be.

B) You are quite outdated on the market prices then. Look at what we paid for Martial back in 2015. Or what we paid for Nani and Anderson in 2007. All these were "buying potential".

This place keeps cribbing about not buying young players with high potential and chasing established players from other clubs. But when we are linked to one, so much moaning ensues (not talking about you personally VP89 but talking in general).

You can't cherry pick what people pay for market potential. Alverez and caceido came in for cheap prices. Bruno was smashing it in the league and came in cheaper than this "paying for potential fee" for Hojlund.

Also as above re fee.

 

[Real Name]

For £70m he best be the new Andrei Shevchenko.

I'm sure it wont be as high as that.

As I'm sure too he'll be called a flop after 2 weeks like Antony.

 

[Mainoldo]

I'm sure it wont be as high as that.

As I'm sure too he'll be called a flop after 2 weeks like Antony.

This 100 percent will be our flop of the summer.

Whether deserved or not. We can all see it.

 

[strandty]

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Could it be a case of United telling the British press they want €100m despite knowing they actually want €60m so when a deal is agreed for the €60m they can pat themselves on the back and say "look at the discount we got, we're amazing negotiators". Similar to the Murtough hype when Mount was done and how great he was to get it over the line.

 

[CG1010]

All of these posts claiming certainty the fee won't be 70m EUR. We've sat at the table longer than Mount deal by a very long stretch and Romano said Atalanta won't budge below 70m EUR and have refused part player transactions.

We will see if they move below but they can't dick us around many weeks longer. As it stands 70 is their price and that's way too fecking high.


You can't cherry pick what people pay for market potential. Alverez and caceido came in for cheap prices. Bruno was smashing it in the league and came in cheaper than this "paying for potential fee" for Hojlund.

Also as above re fee.

You can't cherry pick either. Lots of factors affect market prices and football fans are totally out of depth in trying to analyze that. I would rather focus on the player and what they bring on the pitch than worry incessantly about fees.

 

[VP89]

You can't cherry pick either. Lots of factors affect market prices and football fans are totally out of depth in trying to analyze that. I would rather focus on the player and what they bring on the pitch than worry incessantly about fees.

I'm not cherry picking anything. There are tons more examples of players being paid for their potential at values less than 70m EUR.

Licha Martinez was a title winner at Ajax, he was less, Timber was less, Alvarez was less, Mendes was less, Akanji was less etc etc.

 

[Lyng]

It's a massively flawed argument because for every Kane there's 1000 duds.

You can't take a generational striker and extrapolate from there. Players peak at different times and their skillets differ.

All Hojlund has done is have one decent season in his entire playing career. Hundreds of players have done the same in that league. I still remember the Belotti hype.

By the way, saying a player isn't worth 70m eur based on what they've done in their career so far isn't counting him out. It's calling a spade a spade.

His entire playing career is a funny line to use about a 19year old.
Every player we buy bar Kane will be a huge gamble. Look at Darwin.

But what is the alternative. None of the alternatives brought up in this thread have scored much more per 90 than Rasmus, and those that have would be much more expensive.
So say we dont go after Rasmus. And in that case I dont think we sign a striker. Is that better for you?

Also the talk about Haaland and Alvarez and their "fees" is a weird point, given we know City cook the books and there will be a ton of extra money under the table for those deals.

 

[Real Name]

This 100 percent will be our flop of the summer.

Whether deserved or not. We can all see it.

You mean cafe will regard it as a flop despite the fact it wont be a flop.

 

[VP89]

His entire playing career is a funny line to use about a 19year old.
Every player we buy bar Kane will be a huge gamble. Look at Darwin.

But what is the alternative. None of the alternatives brought up in this thread have scored much more per 90 than Rasmus, and those that have would be much more expensive.
So say we dont go after Rasmus. And in that case I dont think we sign a striker. Is that better for you?

It's not a funny line to use, it's a very well intended line. If you're saying its unfair because he's only played one season, how on earth can you not understand that THIS is why he's not worth 70m EUR? The same size itself is too small to go buy unless he's absolutely smashing it and he's doing it in a league that's hard to register those numbers, or which he is neither.

 

[dasty]

You mean cafe will regard it as a flop despite the fact it wont be a flop.

Redcafe is more willing to brand our signings as flops than the rabid English media. This place was saying Lisandro is destined to be a flop after the Brentford game.

 

[CG1010]

I'm not cherry picking anything. There are tons more examples of players being paid for their potential at values less than 70m EUR.

Licha Martinez was a title winner at Ajax, he was less, Timber was less, Alvarez was less, Mendes was less, Akanji was less etc etc.

If you are hell bent on proving that United is overpaying for Hojlund (without a final fees), why don't you do this more systematically and comprehensively. Here are some resources for you:

https://football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/mr/mr47/en/

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...QQFnoECCkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1iKBriLD3f0xiivN76rrYi

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/joes.12552

TLDR: football inflation of over 100% in last 10 years. Various scholars from premier universities have failed to construct "simple" models to find easy justification of player valuations. Conclusion in research is more complicated game theory models using bargaining theory, signalling etc., are needed to understand why football valuations differ.

Best of luck.

 

[Real Name]

Redcafe is more willing to brand our signings as flops than the rabid English media. This place was saying Lisandro is destined to be a flop after the Brentford game.

Oh yes, remember that. Even well before the game it was all about his height and how he's not going to make it.

 

[Bebestation]

You mean cafe will regard it as a flop despite the fact it wont be a flop.

Funny how you was doing that about other clubs players.

 

[Real Name]

Funny how you was doing that about other clubs players.

I was doing what?

 

[Cassidy]

I'm not cherry picking anything. There are tons more examples of players being paid for their potential at values less than 70m EUR.

Licha Martinez was a title winner at Ajax, he was less, Timber was less, Alvarez was less, Mendes was less, Akanji was less etc etc.

None are strikers. The fact there is a lack of CFs in the market means the price for CFs is elevated, not to mention that CFs have always cost more than defenders

 

[Kostov]

Maybe right now, but Vlahovic's ceiling has probably already been identified. Whereas Hojlund clearly has been viewed to have a lot more potential.

That's probably up for debate and scouts should have better knowledge.

 

[roonster09]

Any thoughts on why Hojland was left off that list? And you would agree that those names I listed are “other options “, wouldn’t you? People keep writing “if not Hojland, then who?”, so those are an example of 3 players , after a couple minutes of googling.

Because you were presenting these players are some awesome goal scorers when that's not the case.

I would take Hojlund ahead of Vlahovic and J David for sure. Muani and Hojlund is close call, would be happy with either.

For me bit of unknown with potential is better than proven not good enough players.