Raucous in the Caucasus: Intense fighting breaks out between Armenia and Azerbaijan

[PedroMendez]

Thomas de Waal wrote one of the only English language accounts of the N-K conflict that I’m aware of, he knows the Caucasus as well as any foreigner:

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I picked up A House of Many Mansions by Kamal Salibi a long time ago, when you recommended it. That was excellent. I am looking forward giving this one a shot.

Just came across this, which is an interesting proposal to float at this moment:

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sounds a bit like the equivalent of talk about player swaps. It might sound sensible, but doesn't happen.

Considering the circumstances, it seems to be the perfect time for Azerbaijan to escalate further.

Something I’ve come to realize… the countries that use social media bots to pedal narratives…. 99% of the time, they’re the ones in the wrong.

how relevant / big is social media in the area? Its huge in South America. So much bullshit is getting peddled in whatsapp groups. Same seems to be the case for India (at least thats my impression from the SEA posters here).

 

[2cents]

I picked up A House of Many Mansions by Kamal Salibi a long time ago, when you recommended it. That was excellent. I am looking forward giving this one a shot.

I’ve just started reading it tonight, very informative (also glad you enjoyed Salibi, still one of my favorite books on the Middle East of any subject).

 

[2cents]

Btw @PedroMendez since we’re in the Caucasus thread I might as well recommend the novel Ali and Nino by Kurban Said, a love story about an Azerbaijani man and a Georgian woman in post-WW1 Baku and the cultural obstacles that stand in their way.

 

[2cents]

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[PedroMendez]

https://asbarez.com/repair-work-begins-on-gas-pipeline-to-artsakh/

thought it might be used as a trump card in negotiations, but glad the Russians were able to convince them to repair the gas. hoping it goes smoothly.

small positives.

Btw @PedroMendez since we’re in the Caucasus thread I might as well recommend the novel Ali and Nino by Kurban Said, a love story about an Azerbaijani man and a Georgian woman in post-WW1 Baku and the cultural obstacles that stand in their way.

sounds interesting. From wiki

Kurban Said (Azerbaijani: Qurban Səid/Гурбан Сәид, IPA: [ɡuɾˈbɑn sæˈit]) is the pseudonym of the author of Ali and Nino, a novel originally published in 1937 in the German language by the Austrian publisher E.P. Tal. The novel has since been published in more than 30 languages.[1] The true identity of the author is in dispute.

Any idea if its better to pick it up in German or English?

I’ve just started reading it tonight, very informative (also glad you enjoyed Salibi, still one of my favorite books on the Middle East of any subject).

I started reading it and the preface (to the revised edition) speaks to me. I like it. I've looked up some of the stuff that de Waal wrote and he comes across really well. You also recommended "Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History" from Barfield. That was excellent as well. At some point you need to post a top20 list of the most interesting/best books you've read related to the topics you post about here.

 

[2cents]

Any idea if its better to pick it up in German or English?

I’d imagine the German original would be better, but wouldn’t know personally.

I've looked up some of the stuff that de Waal wrote and he comes across really well.

He has a brother Alex who is a specialist on the Horn of Africa who I’d be a bit more familiar with (edited a good book on Islamism in that region ages ago).

@2cents an article that goes pver the trade importance of the last Armenian kingdom, Cilicia, in the Middle Ages, if it at all interests you.

https://mirrorspectator.com/2022/03...veals-interconnectedness-of-medieval-armenia/

Of course, thank you

 

[2cents]

I started reading it and the preface (to the revised edition) speaks to me. I like it. I've looked up some of the stuff that de Waal wrote and he comes across really well. You also recommended "Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History" from Barfield. That was excellent as well. At some point you need to post a top20 list of the most interesting/best books you've read related to the topics you post about here.

Just thinking about a few other books on the Caucasus I’ve read. A general history is Charles King’s The Ghost of Freedom which is a pretty standard but informative account with an emphasis on the age of the Russian Empire up to the 90s.

Then there’s three nineteenth century novels: Mikhail Lermontov’s A Hero of our Time, and two by Tolstoy - The Cossacks and Hadji Murad. The latter two are quite good (and short for Tolstoy), very evocative in some passages, really give you a sense of the mystique and frontier-wildness of the Caucasus for Russian soldiers of that era. I mean, this is the kind of scenery that greeted them as they approached the mountains:

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[PedroMendez]

Just thinking about a few other books on the Caucasus I’ve read. A general history is Charles King’s The Ghost of Freedom which is a pretty standard but informative account with an emphasis on the age of the Russian Empire up to the 90s.

Then there’s three nineteenth century novels: Mikhail Lermontov’s A Hero of our Time, and two by Tolstoy - The Cossacks and Hadji Murad. The latter two are quite good (and short for Tolstoy), very evocative in some passages, really give you a sense of the mystique and frontier-wildness of the Caucasus for Russian soldiers of that era. I mean, this is the kind of scenery that greeted them as they approached the mountains:

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The only Tolstoj novel that I've enjoyed was the death of ivan ilyich. Everything longer and it becomes a chore .
It would be pretty epic to go there and cross the mountain range from the north, climb the peak of the Elbrus and than move to Tiflis. I just googled it for fun and was surprised how well developed the area is for tourism. Its obviously a good thing for the region, but a bit anticlimactic. Not quite what a russian soldier would have felt roughly 200 years ago. One of the first google-review comments for the peak is "too far away. bad parking" .

 

[2cents]

The only Tolstoj novel that I've enjoyed was the death of ivan ilyich. Everything longer and it becomes a chore .
It would be pretty epic to go there and cross the mountain range from the north, climb the peak of the Elbrus and than move to Tiflis. I just googled it for fun and was surprised how well developed the area is for tourism. Its obviously a good thing for the region, but a bit anticlimactic. Not quite what a russian soldier would have felt roughly 200 years ago. One of the first google-review comments for the peak is "too far away. bad parking" .

Yeah I’d imagine some of the areas further east in Ingushetia, Chechnya, and Dagestan see a lot less tourism.

 

[PedroMendez]

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No idea how credible that is.

 

[2cents]

Reports from Armenian sources that Azerbaijan has launched attacks on southern Armenia tonight.

 

[VorZakone]

Reports from Armenian sources that Azerbaijan has launched attacks on southern Armenia tonight.

Southern Armenia? Not the Karabakh region?

 

[2cents]

Southern Armenia? Not the Karabakh region?

That's what they're saying:

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Azerbaijan apparently claiming it's retaliation:

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[VorZakone]

That's what they're saying:

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Azerbaijan apparently claiming it's retaliation:

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Jeez. Hopefully this doesn't escalate.

 

[VorZakone]

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[2cents]

Somewhat related

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[Simbo]

Seems to be proper kicking off.

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[The Firestarter]

When they invaded Karabakh , Putin's justification for not sending help was that it was not the undisputed Armenian territory. I wonder what he'll come up this time.

 

[VorZakone]

Not in the news this morning. Did the fighting stop?

 

[2cents]

Not in the news this morning. Did the fighting stop?

Neil Hauer reporting that Azeri attacks continued this morning.

Seems Baku is set on taking full advantage of the favorable regional balance:

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[2cents]

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[2cents]

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[the hea]

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[2cents]

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Looks like Azerbaijan might be aiming to establish the land bridge with Nakhchivan across Armenian territory.

 

[NicolaSacco]

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Looks like Azerbaijan might be aiming to establish the land bridge with Nakhchivan across Armenian territory.

Long term this has to be their plan hasn’t it? And now is probably a good time. I’d imagine they view Russia as the most likely power to have got involved. Turkey will have something to say but i imagine they’ll have known about this and probably support it.

 

[PedroMendez]

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It doesn't necessarily mean anything. Even if this holds, unless Russia, the USA or the EU intervene robustly, this pattern of aggression is going to continue till Azerbaijan achieves maximalists goals. The military balance is too loop-sided and this is going to be decided militarily if necessary. I don't think that Azerbaijan really wants to occupy parts of Armenia, but maybe they are crazy enough to take such a risk.

 

[2cents]

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I don't think that Azerbaijan really wants to occupy parts of Armenia, but maybe they are crazy enough to take such a risk.

Perhaps they feel holding Armenian territory makes a good bargaining chip to finally remove Armenian forces from Azeri territory?

 

[PedroMendez]

Perhaps they feel holding Armenian territory makes a good bargaining chip to finally remove Armenian forces from Azeri territory?

its seems unnecessary. The Armenian government acknowledged, that they have to accept far-reaching concessions. Azerbaijan getting full control over Nagorno-Karabakh seems inevitable. There is already progress on this front and Russia's observer mission is also not going too last forever. Once they are gone, their troops can just move in. I am not sure what Azerbaijan would gain unless they have goals that go substantially beyond what's already known. I think frequent military strikes serve their goals far better than exposing themselves by occupying territory.
Than again, politicians make mistakes and can be motivated by other factors.

 

[VorZakone]

Mexican cartel-esque stuff.

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[2cents]

Russia essentially abandoning the Armenians here:

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[berbatrick]

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[UweBein]

Could this spell the end of Armenia as a sovereign country?

 

[4bars]

Could this spell the end of Armenia as a sovereign country?

Doubt this would happen being part of the UN. And if it happens, will be fun to see how the UN justify its existence. One thing is losing territory (most probably). The other is cease to exist

 

[2cents]

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[Zlatattack]

Again?

 

[TwoSheds]

Again?

The Russians aren't protecting the Armenians any more, a matter of time really unless someone else can ally with them. The Turks back the Azeris as I understand it.

 

[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

No alarm bells yet, but keep an eye on whether these are really military exercises...

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[VorZakone]

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