It’s just speculation, albeit well informed speculation from several personal sources from the economic wing of the govt.
1) Yes, Armenia is a CSTO member. However, Putin is pissed at us for pushing towards the West, which, while I understand why we did, was still stupid, because we can never go all the way with the West due to a certain member. If anything, Ukraine has taught every nation in the world that if you’re not in a concrete defensive alliance, then no one will do provide any sort of material help. Yet that’s exactly what we didn’t do, and as the rest of the world has seen, countries get fecked when Putin gets mad. I believe had we not buddied up to the west, Azeris would’ve never had the opportunity to invade.
2) Incouldve sworn I’ve posted this in this thread before, but they were flying drones, and we (the diaspora) were holding fundraisers for night vision goggles. This will be easy for them. They have a standing army in Armenia right now, and no one is saying a damn thing about it. There’s not really a threat of casualties due to the vast technological gap.
3)On the eve of Ukraine, Asadov was in Russia meeting with Putin. Odd timing for both parties unless they were signing some sort of pact. Remember, essentially the only thing holding this ceasefire in place currently is Russian peacekeeping forces. Azerbaijan and Turkey have long clamored for a true passageway between them, and with the rest of the world watching Ukraine and Russia, it just makes sense. While I think they only want to create that corridor, the entire timespan of our history says whoever can feck us will fecks us, and whoever can help us will not, just massive amounts of defeatism flowing even from my sources, stemming from point 4.
Some more info
4)
As weird as it sounds, just from a social media presence, it’s been eye opening to see the stark difference in people actually giving a feck. And it’s done that to a lot of Other Armenians as well. We now know that we never will get the amount of social media, for lack of a better word, pressure, to do something about our plight so there’s nothing we can do. Legitimately never thought I’d say this, but I’ve grown so disillusioned with the West over this that if Armenia survives I will be moving there. I mean you see it on the caf, we have a 3 page thread on a 2 year old conflict, half the posts are from 3-4 people, and the Ukraine thread, which has I’d assume over 200+ and it just got started?
. Generally I think you can only benefit from stronger economic ties with China.