It was a rhetorical question, I don't know what choice the MoD have or had, none of this mess makes sense to me, unless I missed a step the MoD and Putin antagonized Wagner for reasons that aren't clear and got a response that they seeminlgy didn't anticipate or were able to manage without amputing part of themselves.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
Sorry, I think I just joined this conversation a little to late and am struggling to follow the threads. Wasn’t in anyway trying to be sarcy.
I agree that this makes precious little sense. It’s common to do a classic assessment in situations as opaque as this and asked by asking “who gains?”. And as hard as I look I just can’t see anyone on the Russian side who gains anything.
My first impression is that Lukashenko has played a blinder. He was as good as gone in Friday if Putin fell but now he has a mediator status, the additional (temporary) protection of a portion of Wagner's power, and some bargaining chips with Russia in order to deal with the Ukraine situation. All while he can seek to gain the trust of Prigozhin who -while alive- is a candidate to replace Putin if things don't go to plan, therefore extending his regime's protection beyond Putin.
That is, unless he is asked to off Prigozhin. Then "between a rock and a hard place" doesn't even start to describe the situation he will be in. And recent events/declarations suggest this is a very likely scenario.
That is, unless he is asked to off Prigozhin. Then "between a rock and a hard place" doesn't even start to describe the situation he will be in. And recent events/declarations suggest this is a very likely scenario.
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No problem, I didn't took it that way. The situation is so strange, even discussing it is confusing.
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I think the line "nothing is true and everything is possible" is the only assumption we can take away from these events.
Except it wasn't his purpose to just gain autonomy. He was legit attempting to raise hell in Moscow.
It was about retaining autonomy not gaining it and going after Moscow seemed to be the most direct and aggressive way to do it. If what has been reported is remotely true then somehow Progozhin actions makes sense, the part that is senseless is why would the MoD target Wagner at this particular time and that quickly while they were still seemingly crucial to Russia's efforts in Ukraine. Also why are they surprised or pretending to be surprised by that reaction when it allegedly follows antagonistic actions from Moscow?
I'm sure the beef between Shoihu and Prigozhin had a lot to do with why the Army and Wagner got into it in Ukraine. The Army and Air Force also tried to attack Prigozhin's convoy inside Russia.
I think Prigozhin (who is pretty adept at misinformation) was planning on using the excuses he did to go into Moscow and seize power, whilst blaming it on Shoigu all along the way. Had he gone into Moscow, and with Putin hiding in St. Pete, there's little anyone could've done at that point, especially given reports that Army units were defecting to Wagner along the way.
Apparently Ukraine are making advances, even if not big ones, across the frontlines.
Wish there was more talk about that, instead of the Wagner-drama, it still drowns out everything else.
Wish there was more talk about that, instead of the Wagner-drama, it still drowns out everything else.
I missed that part. Is it possible that the MoD tried to take control of Wagner because they were literally losing men and I would assume material to Wagner? And went about it as poorly as they planned their Ukraine invasion?
It must be due to rain in Belarus soon because I can foresee a special umbrella being delivered for Prigozhin
Somebody speculated a couple of pages back that Russia might launch tactical nukes from Belarus and somehow blame Wagner.
At the time I kinda brushed this off, but the more I think about it, Wagner and Russian nukes in Belarus is a potentially very bad combination. The BBC are probing the possibility that Wagner are building camps there. While Wagner don't have access to the nukes, they'd be the perfect scapegoat should Russia decide to use one.
I'm not really sure the west would buy it though, and I'm confident it'd still prompt a NATO response.
At the time I kinda brushed this off, but the more I think about it, Wagner and Russian nukes in Belarus is a potentially very bad combination. The BBC are probing the possibility that Wagner are building camps there. While Wagner don't have access to the nukes, they'd be the perfect scapegoat should Russia decide to use one.
I'm not really sure the west would buy it though, and I'm confident it'd still prompt a NATO response.
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But how would Russia control Wagner's activities in Africa in this scenario?
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I just don’t see how a nuke would benefit Russia though. They know it wouldn’t end a war, especially so if they blame Wagner (why try and create plausible deniability? Whole point is to drop a nuke and end the whole thing).
I think XI has likely made very clear to Putin that they won’t tolerate nukes. And that’s not even taking into account what the NATO response would be.
IMHO one of Putin’s gravest mistakes is assuming that he could play the nuclear threat card and the West would back down.
I think it’s more for internal politics than any serious attempt to threaten the west. It’s clear that Russia has been taken by surprise at the Western unity it has faced since the invasion, so may have been scrambling for the nuke card as a result.
But the main reason I think is to remind their domestic audience that they still have the ability to (theoretically) blow up the world five times over, despite getting slapped about in Ukraine.
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Those would be Prigozhin's own reports or reports based on that reports. I haven't seen anything concrete and reliable on the matter. A lot (basically everyone they've faced) haven't put up any fight but that's a bit different.
The 'plausible deniability' having a branch of Russian military as a PMC only goes so far. Nobody is under any illusion that any nukes in Belarus are Russian nukes and under their full control.
What is your take on this Wagner vs MoD story. Is there a narrative that you heard and makes sense?
Not sure I see the parallels and, in any case, “Whatever happened to, Evgeny Prigozhin…” doesn’t scan.
At the risk of going on a tangent, do we actually believe or know that anything that is meant to belong to the Russian Army is under their full control? The tweet about corrupiton on the previous page reminds me the completely ridiculous story of a russian mobster who tried to sell a soviet submarine to a cartel.
He really makes Putin look like some teenager that's getting advice from his father
I dont think Vlad would forget this.ffs will someone please off Putin.
Kramatorsk: Russian missile strike hits restaurants in Ukrainian city
A Russian missile strike has hit a crowded restaurant area in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, Ukrainian officials say.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66031342
Kramatorsk: Russian missile strike hits restaurants in Ukrainian city
A Russian missile strike has hit a crowded restaurant area in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, Ukrainian officials say.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66031342
Special good faith regards for RFK Jr
The whole thing was obviously inspired by MoD trying to shift Wagners out (or trying to take control of it, shifting Prigozhin out). I'm not sure that MoD were really losing that many men to Wagner, I think it's simply the idea of having a separate fighting unit kinda under your command (and kinda not) that was stressing Shoigu & the rest the most.
It makes sense.
Yeah the truth was probably the most rational explanation. RA did not attack because why would they? They weren't ordered to. Prigozhin realised he didn't have much/enough high ranking support (at least supporters that would actively show their cards) and so bailed out. No one looks good out of this apart from Lukaschenko.
Lukashenko's moment. Politics, bloody hell.
anything is possible
He must be laughing his ass off behind closed doors. "I told Putin what (not) to do".
Putin on the other hand must be furious about these statements.
There are so many leaks in the Kremlin that it would come out way sooner than the planned date to fire a wmd, and the media would be all over it and the plausible deniability would be gone. At that point the world would know the Russians are attempting this
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I'm not sure Wagner would be able to use any nuclear weapons they just "stumbled over", and hence difficult to blame if something happened. I suppose also Russia has strict security measures to make sure only authorised persons can use them.
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