Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[VorZakone]

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[Frosty]

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I swear he is saying these things to make my blood pressure rise to dangerous levels.

 

[nimic]

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Aka we're going to kill a lot of civilians in the weeks to come, and it won't be our fault.

 

[UweBein]

I don't like this trend of blaming Russians (and Belarusians) for the atrocities of Putin, especially ones that have chosen to make their home outside of Russia and have seemingly no connection to the Putin regime.

As for the above, don't Russians need visas to reside in Germany and have to reapply regularly for renewal? It just smacks of overdoing it and literally cancelling a whole nation.

Of course, you already need these documents when you open a bank account.

 

[GlastonSpur]

BBC reports:

"Zelensky ... claims that around 500-600 Russian troops surrendered to Ukrainian forces on Friday."

 

[ooeat0meoo]

They have to deal with the Russian military right next door in Syria, and require a good relationship with Moscow to maintain their freedom of action there. That’ll be Jerusalem’s number one immediate priority.

I'm not missing how complicated things are for Israel at the moment. Although, it's a bit disturbing that the US has spent trillions of dollars in support of Israel and now there's this situation.
It's bothered me since @Raoul posted that Frontline interview, yesterday

 

[clarkydaz]

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Does Putin think people actually believe what he says, outside Russia?

 

[africanspur]

Does Putin think people actually believe what he says, outside Russia?

The trolls will believe it, as well as some who have fallen into that particular rabbit hole, but I think those statements will mean nothing. He's hardly going to say to them 'I'm in the wrong here, killing civilians and levelling cities is bad'.

The concerning thing would be if he himself believes this, which I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

 

[harms]

Does Putin think people actually believe what he says, outside Russia?

I don't think we'll ever going to know. It's really hard to understand how far does his personal belief go. Does he believe all of that/some of that himself? Considering that he lives in an information bubble where the same propaganda that he's been feeding his people are being circulated 24/7 I wouldn't be very surprised if he does believe that, at least partially. By all accounts he seemed to believe that his military would be welcome at least in the Eastern regions — or at least that the opposition won't be as homogenous.

 

[harms]

Do use google-translate to read that, it seems to work kinda okay. It's an article about the global mobilisation that takes place in DNR (DPR) at the moment.

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/20...stvo-v-xxi-veke-i-delaiut-s-nami-chto-khotiat

A girl from Donetsk contacted the editors of Novaya Gazeta. For security reasons, we cannot name her (audio recordings of the monologues are at the disposal of the editors). She told how forced mobilization was organized in the “DPR”. They have already taken away all the guys whom she personally knew, her university classmates, relatives, and acquaintances. None of them had served in the army before. From some there are reports that they are already in Ukraine. We publish the monologues of a girl and her friends who are faced with mobilization.

“At first, even before [the “special operation”], before the evacuation, they began to take away all state employees. Those who worked in the Central Bank, who worked as teachers, lecturers, who worked in tax and other structures. More than 50% of the men were taken there. On some - 100%, where they were not vital. In the bank, for example, only the male collectors were left, and the rest - up to the bosses - were all taken away.

Then, already during the evacuation, they began to pick up students. It didn't seem like it was necessary. You had to come to the dean's office and confirm that you are in Donetsk. My classmate went in this way, he was told to come to the military registration and enlistment office at the place of residence, to confirm that he was in the full-time department, but it all ended with the fact that they were taken to the training camp a week and a half ago and since then they have not returned. Those students who tried to leave for Russia together with the evacuees were not released by the “DPR”. We have only three checkpoints with Russia. All cars are checked. If there is at least one man from 18 to 55, they are sent to prison and put into something like a paddy wagon and taken to mobilization points. There are no options to leave.
Men, like dogs, are caught in the streets.

Even if a man just goes to the store, he can be stopped and asked for documents. If there are no documents, then they are taken to the police department to establish their identity. If there is, but there is no mark from the military registration and enlistment office that he is not subject or has already undergone military training, then they are taken immediately to the mobilization point. There are no men in the city now. Those who have not yet been taken away - there are very few of them - they sit at home and do not go out in principle.

.... more ->
https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/20...stvo-v-xxi-veke-i-delaiut-s-nami-chto-khotiat

 

[clarkydaz]

I don't think we'll ever going to know. It's really hard to understand how far does his personal belief go. Does he believe all of that/some of that himself? Considering that he lives in an information bubble where the same propaganda that he's been feeding his people are being circulated 24/7 I wouldn't be very surprised if he does believe that, at least partially. By all accounts he seemed to believe that his military would be welcome at least in the Eastern regions — or at least that the opposition won't be as homogenous.

im also thinking about the press releases and spokespeople, the ludicrous things they say to the world to save face. im conflicted whether its high intelligence or high idiocy to think what works in Russia works for the onlooking world

 

[golden_blunder]

Yes, but I doubt Russia is threatening that.

I doubt your doubt, when it comes to Putin and his minions. The Russian foreign minister has said that they would look at military responses to any other country shipping stuff in

 

[golden_blunder]

Do use google-translate to read that, it seems to work kinda okay. It's an article about the global mobilisation that takes place in DNR (DPR) at the moment.

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/20...stvo-v-xxi-veke-i-delaiut-s-nami-chto-khotiat

Jesus. Taking young men, teachers etc to fight a war that that don’t want any part off. It’s horrendous against your own people never mind ukraine

 

[Ali Dia]

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the old Israeli line

 

[alexthelion]

Theres a stunning video report of Kharkiv from BBC's Quentin Sommerville on Twitter. He patrols the city with the Ukrainian army.

The video is 6 minutes long and also shows some dead bodies, so won't post it here

Also on BBC website.

 

[alexthelion]

Yeah, it is only on Twitter. The one on the BBC website and broadcast on TV was cut and didn’t show the petrol station scene.

If you mean with the dead Russian soldiers, the one on the BBC website did.

 

[GlastonSpur]

I doubt your doubt, when it comes to Putin and his minions. The Russian foreign minister has said that they would look at military responses to any other country shipping stuff in

Looking at doing something and actually doing it are two different things.

 

[11101]

I doubt your doubt, when it comes to Putin and his minions. The Russian foreign minister has said that they would look at military responses to any other country shipping stuff in

'Look at' the same way they are looking at nuclear options. It won't happen.

Attacking a Nato convoy would have to be done from the air, and so be the likely tipping point for a no fly zone. The war becomes unwinnable for Russia from that point on.

 

[JPRouve]

Yes they do. No one cares about big names anymore even though I don't thing that anyone of note had been prosecuted for the new "anti-fake law" or for the law that criminalises "the discreditation of actions of the Russian military". For example the Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin had said that all cultural workers (including famous singers, actors etc.) that signed anti-war open letters or stated their disagreement with Putin's actions have to be ostracised for being collaborators and traitors to the nation. Most of those who had an option of leaving the country, did — even someone like Ivan Urgant, who had his own Saturday Night Live-esque show on the biggest Russian federal channel (he never participated in pro-Putin propaganda to be fair and he was even allowed to make very direct jokes about our government/politics before the invasion. He's been taken off the air & is now apparently in Israel, although it hasn't been confirmed). Maxim Galkin, a very conformist comedian who is very popular in elderly demographics had his concerts cancelled including anti-Galkin demonstrations (most likely staged by the state) at the airport where he had landed before the show — again, after publishing an anti-war statement around the beginning of all of this mess. And those are bigger names than Chess GMs that aren't really that well-known to the general public.

The new laws have only been introduced for about a week, I think, and there have already been hundreds of criminal cases opened — it's only a matter of time before they'll take some big name in as an example.

Thanks. That's worrying.

 

[Rajma]

I've just arrived in Turkey today with my football team. We're here to train for a week. I noticed some lads with crests on their shirts in Cyrillic. I'm pretty sure it's the Mariupol crest. I'm wondering if they've evacuated athletes.

Many Ukrainian football teams have their preseason done in Turkey around this time.

 

[McGrathsipan]

Aka we're going to kill a lot of civilians in the weeks to come, and it won't be our fault.

But the whole thing is his fault they shouldn't be there

 

[Frosty]

US says it is willing to take diplomatic steps to help Ukraine

The US has said it is willing to take diplomatic steps to help the Ukrainian government, reports Reuters.

A state department spokesperson made the comments on Saturday after the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the west should be more involved in negotiations to end the war.

“If there are diplomatic steps that we can take that the Ukrainian Government believes would be helpful, we’re prepared to take them”, the spokesperson said.

“We are working to put the Ukrainians in the strongest possible negotiating position, including by increasing pressure on Russia by imposing severe costs and by providing security assistance to help Ukrainians defend themselves.”

 

[Mr Pigeon]

But the whole thing is his fault they shouldn't be there

No doubt they had to bomb the city to preempt Ukrainian attacks.

It's amazing how many times the Russians have had to preempt Ukrainian aggression. An untrained eye would only see Russia being aggressors during this entire invasion...

 

[iKnowNothing]

Assume that one has a residential building/apartment complex which was destroyed by Russian tank/bomb/whatever. How does someone go about rebuilding it, once this is all over? Who pays for that stuff?
I’m assuming insurance won’t pay for property destroyed by war..?

 

[TMDaines]

A long-read in the New Yorker today by Joshua Yaffa:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/03/21/what-the-russian-invasion-has-done-to-ukraine

Yes, there are grim pictures.

 

[harms]

Assume that one has a residential building/apartment complex which was destroyed by Russian tank/bomb/whatever. How does someone go about rebuilding it, once this is all over? Who pays for that stuff?
I’m assuming insurance won’t pay for property destroyed by war..?

Most likely it would be paid by the government from the funds that they’ll get abroad on, well, rebuilding the country from the ground up. I believe that USA had already stated that it’s going to introduce Marshall Plan 2.0 when all of that it (hopefully) over.

Or, more likely, they’ll get some compensation/be offered an alternative living space.

 

[TMDaines]

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[::sonny::]

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[Raoul]

I'm not missing how complicated things are for Israel at the moment. Although, it's a bit disturbing that the US has spent trillions of dollars in support of Israel and now there's this situation.
It's bothered me since @Raoul posted that Frontline interview, yesterday

The Julia Ioffe interview is going to be part of a brand new Frontline episode this coming Tuesday.

 

[golden_blunder]

IF they join the EU, the money will flood in to rebuild. It can’t replace lives off course

 

[Rightnr]

Money and EU companies, of course. The Germans will love it.

 

[VorZakone]

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[Raoul]

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NATO and the world need to prepare for how to respond if this happens. More sanctions simply won't cut it at this point. It will require a military response.

 

[sun_tzu]

NATO and the world need to prepare for how to respond if this happens. More sanctions simply won't cut it at this point. It will require a military response.

Like Syria?

If it happens there will be claims and counter claims

I don't see the USA going with a military responce unless they can prove 100% what happened

And they would probably need investigators on the ground to do that... And considering the ground will probably be under russian occupation that seems improbable to me

 

[Raoul]

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[The Firestarter]

NATO and the world need to prepare for how to respond if this happens. More sanctions simply won't cut it at this point. It will require a military response.

Same as the red line in Syria.

 

[Raoul]

Like Syria?

If it happens there will be claims and counter claims

I don't see the USA going with a military responce unless they can prove 100% what happened

And they would probably need investigators on the ground to do that... And considering the ground will probably be under russian occupation that seems improbable to me

Not taking action in Syria is obviously remembered as a mistake that shouldn't be made again. Ditto with Obama's red line comment.

 

[Raoul]

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[sun_tzu]

Not taking action in Syria is obviously remembered as a mistake that shouldn't be made again. Ditto with Obama's red line comment.

I actually think the responce would not be military but instead massive diplomatic push by usa and Europe to use it to get China to isolate and sanction Russia

I think at least in the first instance that would be the responce

If China didn't respond and then putin repeated the use of chemical weapons then the USA and nato have to make decisions ... and given some countries didn't want to stop selling luxury goods or stop buying gas they might not br ready to go eyond sanctions?

 

[Raoul]

I actually think the responce would not be military but instead massive diplomatic push by usa and Europe to use it to get China to isolate and sanction Russia

I think at least in the first instance that would be the responce

If China didn't respond and then putin repeated the use of chemical weapons then the USA and nato have to make decisions ... and given some countries didn't want to stop selling luxury goods or stop buying gas they might not br ready to go eyond sanctions?

That wouldn't stop Putin though. The only thing that will stop him is trouble inside Russia through an uprising or coup and/or the US getting militarily involved. His calculus so far has been "I can do what I want because I have nukes and you wouldn't dare attempt to stop me". The US needs to do the same to him by taking some sort of provocative military action that ignores Putin and seeks to protect Ukrainians. Put the pressure on Putin to respond to that at at time when he's losing the war in Ukraine and in danger of crushing pressure back home.