SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Compton22

Knows that he knows nothing.
Joined
Jul 27, 2014
Messages
3,386
I've been thinking why the government wants to ease the lockdown so quickly. I've seen theories on herd immunity and distraction from Dominic Cummings but I have a thought that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere else.

I read up on the Oxford vaccine and apparently the heads of the project are worried that the results could be prolonged due to a lower infection rate. Since they are very keen to accelerate production as soon as it is found to work could this be a ploy to ensure the infection rate is kept high to speed up results? If true, never mind the clear unethical issue of doing so, it's a massive gamble if it doesn't work, which is why they can't say easing the lockdown is for that reason.
 

Jacko21

Full Member
Joined
Mar 27, 2016
Messages
4,578
Location
Manchester
Trying to displace critical Sunday newspaper headlines perhaps?
Be interesting to see if UK charities, respective medical associations and care teams begin to diverge from government messaging. They called for clarity, transparency and a coordinated response. An overnight change like this goes against all of that.
 

redshaw

Full Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2015
Messages
9,689
I've been thinking why the government wants to ease the lockdown so quickly. I've seen theories on herd immunity and distraction from Dominic Cummings but I have a thought that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere else.

I read up on the Oxford vaccine and apparently the heads of the project are worried that the results could be prolonged due to a lower infection rate. Since they are very keen to accelerate production as soon as it is found to work could this be a ploy to ensure the infection rate is kept high to speed up results? If true, never mind the clear unethical issue of doing so, it's a massive gamble if it doesn't work, which is why they can't say easing the lockdown is for that reason.
I think it's more how long people can take, economy and having to move on and try to live with it come the summer. I predicted mid May to June is when UK eases with hundreds a day still dying. Other countries are opening up and UK is opening up but it's more the lockdown wasn't as effective as some others but it's time to see how we can keep the numbers low, we're few weeks off but time is up kind of thing, not the oxford vaccine.

The winter might be another time for vaccine testing but if it fizzles out then the vaccine won't come. Right now they need to be in Brazil.
 

sullydnl

Ross Kemp's caf ID
Joined
Sep 13, 2012
Messages
34,063

Ireland considering easing some restrictions earlier than was planned, apparently.
 

Brwned

Have you ever been in love before?
Joined
Apr 18, 2008
Messages
50,848
But nothing we have learned about the virus since lockdown started justifies an accelerated return to normal. The consensus on IFR is higher now than it was a month or two ago (best estimate currently = 1%). Asymptomatic spread is more widespread than we thought. We know kids shed lots of virus despite rarely getting ill. The only ray of light seems to be that it’s a bit crap at infecting people outdoors. Not that this has any bearing on indoor spread, where we know for a fact that it’s incredibly contagious.

So we have a virus that is at least 10 times more lethal than flu (which puts the health service on its knees every winter - despite a vaccine being available - and hasn’t gone away) and considerably more contagious (thanks to long incubation period and asymptomatic spread). South Korea is the poster boy for containment and they’ve just, this week, had to shut their schools again!

I’m not seeing a shred of evidence that we can get schools, offices, shops, gyms museums etc all open again quickly without another spike. What evidence have you seen?
In Austria all shops and services (e.g. hairdressers) re-opened on the 1st May. In Czech Republic events of up to 100 people and gyms were opened on the 11th May. In Denmark primary schools and daycares opened on the 15th April and secondary schools and after schools opened on the 18th May. There's been a lot of info from locals in here about restrictions lifted in Germany, Belgium and Poland too.

They've prioritised sections of the economy differently, which gives you some indication of the relative impact of a variety of measures, and none of them have seen another spike. In most cases they've slowed the decline of new cases, while in Poland they've just remained completely steady at 300-400 for nearly 2 months. None of them have saw a significant increase in new cases in the last few weeks.

That's not to say it has had no impact. Germany provide a daily estimation of the R0 here, and in April they saw the 7-day average fall from 0.95 at the beginning to 0.76 in mid-April. Now it's back up to 0.95. It has an impact, but there is very little sign that it causes another spike. We definitely weren't sure of that a month ago, and at this point it seems clear that most major countries will at least tolerate that reality.

There's still more daily cases than anyone would like, but if the healthcare systems won't be overwhelmed, then they will re-open the economy. It has an immediate negative impact on public health, but so do many economic activities, and now that the threat of losing control has been taken off the table we are back to making trade-offs based on the total impact of each decision.

When France opened up bars and restaurants a few days ago, Edouard Phillipe said "We are in a better place than where we expected to be", and I think that's been a common view on the continent in the past few weeks. While you have people on here like @Wibble saying re-opening the economy with anything above Australia's numbers is beyond reckless, it is a guaranteed disaster, most major leaders have taken a completely different perspective. Either they're all idiots or psychopaths, or there is room for different approaches while focusing on the same broad objective of protecting society.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,012
Location
Centreback
Wow! You must be so proud!

Nice locale too.
We are. Very.

Even though he represented Australia at the Youth and Junior World Championships it isn't that easy to get recruited to a Div1 NCAA program from Australia. He is also having the time of his life.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,012
Location
Centreback
In Austria all shops and services (e.g. hairdressers) re-opened on the 1st May. In Czech Republic events of up to 100 people and gyms were opened on the 11th May. In Denmark primary schools and daycares opened on the 15th April and secondary schools and after schools opened on the 18th May. There's been a lot of info from locals in here about restrictions lifted in Germany, Belgium and Poland too.

They've prioritised sections of the economy differently, which gives you some indication of the relative impact of a variety of measures, and none of them have seen another spike. In most cases they've slowed the decline of new cases, while in Poland they've just remained completely steady at 300-400 for nearly 2 months. None of them have saw a significant increase in new cases in the last few weeks.

That's not to say it has had no impact. Germany provide a daily estimation of the R0 here, and in April they saw the 7-day average fall from 0.95 at the beginning to 0.76 in mid-April. Now it's back up to 0.95. It has an impact, but there is very little sign that it causes another spike. We definitely weren't sure of that a month ago, and at this point it seems clear that most major countries will at least tolerate that reality.

There's still more daily cases than anyone would like, but if the healthcare systems won't be overwhelmed, then they will re-open the economy. It has an immediate negative impact on public health, but so do many economic activities, and now that the threat of losing control has been taken off the table we are back to making trade-offs based on the total impact of each decision.

When France opened up bars and restaurants a few days ago, Edouard Phillipe said "We are in a better place than where we expected to be", and I think that's been a common view on the continent in the past few weeks. While you have people on here like @Wibble saying re-opening the economy with anything above Australia's numbers is beyond reckless, it is a guaranteed disaster, most major leaders have taken a completely different perspective. Either they're all idiots or psychopaths, or there is room for different approaches while focusing on the same broad objective of protecting society.
They are just saying that they are prepared to accept many deaths of mainly old people as the cost of opening up and hoping nobody notices the current situation is largely due to governmental incompetence.

If a government as disfunctional as Australia's can get the health response mainly right how bumbling and incompetent does that make Bojo et al.?
 
Last edited:

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,905
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
In Austria all shops and services (e.g. hairdressers) re-opened on the 1st May. In Czech Republic events of up to 100 people and gyms were opened on the 11th May. In Denmark primary schools and daycares opened on the 15th April and secondary schools and after schools opened on the 18th May. There's been a lot of info from locals in here about restrictions lifted in Germany, Belgium and Poland too.

They've prioritised sections of the economy differently, which gives you some indication of the relative impact of a variety of measures, and none of them have seen another spike. In most cases they've slowed the decline of new cases, while in Poland they've just remained completely steady at 300-400 for nearly 2 months. None of them have saw a significant increase in new cases in the last few weeks.

That's not to say it has had no impact. Germany provide a daily estimation of the R0 here, and in April they saw the 7-day average fall from 0.95 at the beginning to 0.76 in mid-April. Now it's back up to 0.95. It has an impact, but there is very little sign that it causes another spike. We definitely weren't sure of that a month ago, and at this point it seems clear that most major countries will at least tolerate that reality.

There's still more daily cases than anyone would like, but if the healthcare systems won't be overwhelmed, then they will re-open the economy. It has an immediate negative impact on public health, but so do many economic activities, and now that the threat of losing control has been taken off the table we are back to making trade-offs based on the total impact of each decision.

When France opened up bars and restaurants a few days ago, Edouard Phillipe said "We are in a better place than where we expected to be", and I think that's been a common view on the continent in the past few weeks. While you have people on here like @Wibble saying re-opening the economy with anything above Australia's numbers is beyond reckless, it is a guaranteed disaster, most major leaders have taken a completely different perspective. Either they're all idiots or psychopaths, or there is room for different approaches while focusing on the same broad objective of protecting society.
I’m not even sure what you’re suggesting here. Which country is opening too slowly, in your opinion?

I think the general approach in most European countries has been fine. Although, obviously, one size doesn’t fit all. Not all countries have the capacity in school classrooms to match the social distancing in Scandi schools. Not all countries got the daily cases as low as the Czech Republic. And so on. Likewise the capacity in the healthcare system to cope with a second wave should be taken into account. And these are the factors that the people making decisions in each individual country will need to consider.

So where do you think mistakes are being made?
 

P-Nut

fan of well-known French footballer Fabinho
Joined
Oct 16, 2015
Messages
21,645
Location
Oldham, Greater Manchester
Bizarre of the government to adjust the shielding advice, effectively overnight.

Really bizarre.
Be interesting to see if UK charities, respective medical associations and care teams begin to diverge from government messaging. They called for clarity, transparency and a coordinated response. An overnight change like this goes against all of that.
Have you got a link for these changes?
 

Lj82

Full Member
Joined
Jun 12, 2016
Messages
1,060
Location
Singapore
You don't know how much stuff costs until you are billed for it either. They won't tell you the prices. It's a complete racket.
Oh yes. Having experienced it first hand I just cannot understand how Americans tolerate this system. A friend sent his daughter to the hospital for dehydration. She stayed one night out of precaution, no treatment. The freaking bill was 20k. The insurance covered 75% of it. That insurance cost 6k per pax per annum. It's completely crazy. 6k is the price for being healthy.

Now with the coronavirus situation, people are being laid off and losing their insurance in the process. How the hell are they going to survive?
 

Irwin99

Full Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2018
Messages
9,350
Anyone else sympathetic towards the protests in America and the solidarity shown for them around the globe but thinking, Christ, this is just the worst possible time it could have happened? :nervous: Just seen the gathering in Trafalgar square - zero distancing and a fair few people without masks. If asymptomatic transmission is a thing then god knows how many people could be infected by just one protester who has no symptoms.
 

Infra-red

Full Member
Joined
May 4, 2010
Messages
13,420
Location
left wing
Looks like the roll out of the UK government's test and tracing system is being handled about as well as the rest of their pandemic measures (written anonymously by one of the contact tracers):

"Why I quit working on Boris Johnson's ‘world-beating' test-and-tracing system

We’re not highly trained – we’ve been sitting around doing nothing. This programme is not fit to bring Britain out of lockdown"

https://amp.theguardian.com/comment...wn?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
 

Flying high

Full Member
Joined
Jul 19, 2015
Messages
1,726
Coronavirus: UK exceeds 200,000 testing capacity target

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52869875


Even with their manipulation of the figures, they still only actually come to a figure of 115,000 tests 'carried out'.

We can all expect stupid Boris to appear tonight to tell us all how amazingly well he's doing though. When you start off with over the top bluster and bullshit, it doesn't leave you much room for manouver when it really hits the fan.
 

Brwned

Have you ever been in love before?
Joined
Apr 18, 2008
Messages
50,848
They are just saying that they are prepared to accept many deaths of mainly old people as the cost of opening up and hoping nobody notices the current situation is largely due to governmental incompetence.

If a government as disfunctional as Australia's can get the health response mainly right how bumbling and incompetent does that make Bojo et al.?
I think that point only sounds credible when you make direct comparisons between Australia and the UK / US, because it's widely agreed that the leaders are buffoons and / or the response was incompetent. If you expand that point out to include every other major government in the world, right across the spectrum, it stops making much sense. The model Australia are following is the only model that should be followed, and every other major government is acting incompetently. There's better explanations than that.

I’m not even sure what you’re suggesting here. Which country is opening too slowly, in your opinion?

I think the general approach in most European countries has been fine. Although, obviously, one size doesn’t fit all. Not all countries have the capacity in school classrooms to match the social distancing in Scandi schools. Not all countries got the daily cases as low as the Czech Republic. And so on. Likewise the capacity in the healthcare system to cope with a second wave should be taken into account. And these are the factors that the people making decisions in each individual country will need to consider.

So where do you think mistakes are being made?
I wasn't criticising governments or putting forward a notion of the correct plan of action. I was just saying that there is now evidence that suggests re-opening the economy might not have the catastrophic consequences many people worried about, which means governments have a bit more leeway in how conservative they choose to be. Before it was the only choice, now it's a case of weighing up options. In which case there's a bit more room for reasonable disagreement. The idea that there's no evidence or no justification for an accelerated return to normal completely dismisses the idea of any reasonable discussion. Yes there may be negative consequences to it, but that's how it has to be, end of discussion. I was just putting forward some evidence to say it is at least a legitimate discussion. Things have gone better in the European countries coming out of lockdown than they expected, and it's possible that coming out of lockdown quicker would not have severe health consequences while it could plausibly lessen the economic damage.
 

Fluctuation0161

Full Member
Joined
Aug 8, 2016
Messages
8,165
Location
Manchester
Coronavirus: UK exceeds 200,000 testing capacity target

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52869875


Even with their manipulation of the figures, they still only actually come to a figure of 115,000 tests 'carried out'.

We can all expect stupid Boris to appear tonight to tell us all how amazingly well he's doing though. When you start off with over the top bluster and bullshit, it doesn't leave you much room for manouver when it really hits the fan.
I believe they have not published actual tests carried out for nearly 7 days?

They didnt like the figures so they just made actual tests completed "unavailable". Capacity is all they talk about now.
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,905
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
I wasn't criticising governments or putting forward a notion of the correct plan of action. I was just saying that there is now evidence that suggests re-opening the economy might not have the catastrophic consequences many people worried about, which means governments have a bit more leeway in how conservative they choose to be. Before it was the only choice, now it's a case of weighing up options. In which case there's a bit more room for reasonable disagreement. The idea that there's no evidence or no justification for an accelerated return to normal completely dismisses the idea of any reasonable discussion. Yes there may be negative consequences to it, but that's how it has to be, end of discussion. I was just putting forward some evidence to say it is at least a legitimate discussion. Things have gone better in the European countries coming out of lockdown than they expected, and it's possible that coming out of lockdown quicker would not have severe health consequences while it could plausibly lessen the economic damage.
Ok, grand, then I agree.

In Ireland we have a (cautious) plan to exit lockdown with every step laid out until August. There were loads of warnings at the beginning that we might not be able to progress as quickly as planned, if cases start to rise. They didn’t say it but I’m sure the opposite is also true. We can progress quicker than planned if things look better than expected. Based on what is happening here AND experience from other countries. There needs to be a willingness to flex the plan in both directions. I’m sure there is.

My only concern is politically motivated hastiness, which ignores the evidence and opinion of experts. This might be happening in the UK right now. Hopefully not.
 

jymufc20

Last Man Standing finalist 2019/20
Joined
Jan 5, 2015
Messages
3,584
Location
planet earth
Coronavirus: UK exceeds 200,000 testing capacity target

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52869875


Even with their manipulation of the figures, they still only actually come to a figure of 115,000 tests 'carried out'.

We can all expect stupid Boris to appear tonight to tell us all how amazingly well he's doing though. When you start off with over the top bluster and bullshit, it doesn't leave you much room for manouver when it really hits the fan.
I'm confused, how does 115 k tests exceed 200 k tests ?
 

redshaw

Full Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2015
Messages
9,689
I'm confused, how does 115 k tests exceed 200 k tests ?
It's lab testing capacity.

Soon should there be enough testing stations and kits sent out to homes and that many people wanting the test, 200k will be possible.
 

jymufc20

Last Man Standing finalist 2019/20
Joined
Jan 5, 2015
Messages
3,584
Location
planet earth
It's lab testing capacity.

Soon should there be enough testing stations and kits sent out to homes and that many people wanting the test, 200k will be possible.
AHH so it's just Tory bullshit then ? If they had that capacity they would surely let anyone have a test, symptomatic or not.
 

Tibs

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2007
Messages
13,764
Location
UK
If the numbers of deaths keep falling, and the confirmed cases stay stable or fall, I feel we will be able to feel more optimistic.

Going forward though, I'm updating my CV so I'm ready for any economic feck ups that affect work, and no pointless spending.