SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
This is where you are getting it wrong.
Health systems have not been totally overwhelmed anywhere yet, with the exception of a few towns here and there in particular hotspots. High death rates are down to factors like demographics and cultural traits.
True but the number of weaker patients would still decline over time. For every new patient that's one less in the population that can be exposed to it.
Last 5 days seem quite far off from the numbers I'm seeing on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Italy reporting it's second consecutive day of <3,000 new cases for the first time since early March, and another day of active case reduction. The PM is outlining measures for a gradual reduction of measures by the end of this week, to begin on May 4.
Nice
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Absolute fecking tools, the lot of them. We’ve seen similar gobshites in MAGA hats over the pond. Is there a UK equivalent?
Maybe that graph factors more the ones who die pretty much solely because of Covid instead of one's that either had loads of health issues that put them on borrowed time anyway or died for something else and happened to have mild Covid?
Any countries still yet to see a flattening of the curve?
I will. Yes he seemed very upbeat and happy today. Last week he was despondent and sad. He is also involved in a clinical trial of a prospective cure. That would take at least a month for any news.
Yeah I know there are many underlying factors including: lack of vaccine, obesity, diabetes and hypertension. And there will always be that small percentage who will pass on even with the best healthcare.
But it's just the idea that no matter how we organise our healthcare capacity, we will get a minimum of 900-1000 deaths a day at peak, and there's nothing we can do about it...it really rubs me the wrong way idealistically.
And @F-Red, I would totally agree with you on the shocking response on PPE. Unbelievable.
London is a hotspot for us though and we don't seem to need the Nightingale even at (close to) peak, which really boggles my mind. I still really can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing.
It's easy for me to say 'Definitely a good thing! We have less people who really need the hospital than we initially thought!" but is that really true looking at that death count?
Worldometer's figures depend on deaths by day of reporting. Dan's figures take those same deaths but properly distribute them by the actual day of death - which is a more informative statistic. Dan's graph also appears to only incorporate the figures for England, rather than the UK as a whole.
You can easily discount the last few days of these graphs because it typically takes between 2 - 7 days to reach a satisfactorily accurate figure. We'll know much more about Monday this week by Monday next.
Will be interested to see what their 1 year reunion photo looks like.
Ah thanks for the explanation
Regarding unreported covid-19 deaths and excess deaths in various countries, here's an article with those numbers, they think approx. 28,000 more deaths can be added to the tally just by these nations included in the article.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I also saw that during the period of 21.march-11.april there was approx 8000 more deaths in Ecuador also, so propably more countries have not been able to report due to testing issues or have not included home/nursing home deaths.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I also saw that during the period of 21.march-11.april there was approx 8000 more deaths in Ecuador also, so propably more countries have not been able to report due to testing issues or have not included home/nursing home deaths.
Didn't realise the difference in your numbers as explained by @Ekkie Thump above
Hi there are many issues regarding Nightingale not having many patients. They do not offer all of what an ITU does and therefore have very specific admission criteria and strict exclusionary ones too.
Frail patients with extensive comorbidities often require input from different teams, imaging modalities, dialysis machines and would not be suitable for transfer. Most likely the patients most suitable are those ventilated who are "stable" (maybe those who need a bit a time to wean off) but not with complex other issues. COVID19 causes massive inflammation, coagulation defects, secondary infections & multi-organ failure. You need ITU beds for such patients and patients who are stable could potentially be transferred to Nightingale to free up space.
The reason a lot of people would still die despite "capacity" is because we know that intubation is something that frail patients would not do well on. On the new respect forms or Treatment Escalation Plans (TEPs) we discuss resuscitation but also ceiling of intervention. Decisions to palliate are made in line with wishes from patients and family which is as much a medical decision as much as line with the advanced care planning we discuss with them.
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Thesis on the role of Prevotella and Covid19
Source: RAW PERFORMANCE on facebook
This study is a preprint and therefore needs to be confirmed even further through peer reviews, but I think it's worth bringing this attention. At least we learn something from it, and at least it does confirm that there is much more going on than just having bad luck and getting sick. It is clear that the stomach and intestinal flora are integral part of the functioning of our immune system. Think of the stomach as the place where bacteria and immune system meet. How that meeting goes is clearly crucial. " There are no second chances to make a first impression."
From the preliminary conclusion of the study, we can note that the Prevotella (one of the large types of bacteria that populate our stomach and intestinal flora) play a crucial role in the development of the coronavirus. The bacteria would be a carrier for the virus in this situation.
Some background information: the prevotella bacteria are responsible, among other things, for the digestion of carbohydrates, especially starch and sugar. Furthermore, we also find the species in the respiratory system, both in the lungs and upper respiratory tract.
Prevotella are also strong indicative of inflammation in the stomach and the rest of the body, both positive and negative. This once again points to their role as a facilitator or carrier. The problem with bacteria is especially that in fact we still know too little / nothing about it. After all, it is only the last decades that these are finally coming to attention and that research can be carried out.
With that in mind, no one can say for sure what exactly is, but in the current malaise, a connection does not seem far-fetched. Especially if we link the information of this preprint to other preprints (link) and ongoing studies that indicate overweight as a prominent risk factor for hospitalization due to the coronavirus (link), a clear pattern will be visible.
After all, there are several "causes" that seem to have a common basis. It would not be the disorders or overweight in itself, because the most logical explanation is to look for the common factors that cause this.
And there is: with the exception of congenital conditions, many disorders have their cause in people's lifestyle. Our lifestyle has a strong impact on the stomach and intestinal flora as well as on the immune system. Given the complexity, there is still a lot to be done, but it would explain why a lot of apparently healthy people get seriously ill anyway.
Anyway, what we already know in the meantime is that a good balance is needed in the stomach and intestinal flora. Several colonies must work together in a way. Even though it is rather a kind of struggle between the colonies, which is usually won by the species that is-in this case, literally-the most fed.
The statement is now that the Prevotella species has become too dominant compared to the balance that is naturally present for the people of Western European origin, causing serious health risks due to our lifestyle.
In combination with what we know about the role of sugar and less qualitative carbohydrates as cause of inflammation, it seems appropriate to pay attention to exaggerated carbohydrates and sugars, especially during this period where temptation can be particularly great because of boredom, frustrations and the general lack of movement.
Another striking trend in research towards solutions points towards (a shortage) of vitamin D. This is also fiercely related to our lifestyle.
So get out, move, socialize, soak up some sunshine, eat healthy food, skip the sugar and stimulants and avoid (social) media induced stress and anxiety.
Prevotella as a carrier:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339008515_The_2019_Wuhan_outbreak_is_caused_by_the_bacteria_Prevotella_which_is_aided_by_the_coronavirus_possibly_to_adhere_to_epithelial_cells_-_Prevotella_is_present_in_huge_amounts_in_patients_from_both_Chin
Prevotella info:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevotella
Stomach and intestinal system as a potential contamination route:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927806v1
Overweight:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32271993
& https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article&fbclid=IwAR1llKM06RHqnEXElwNn-5GO-reKVUIiwFR8aP2akJea6RzUHgT6Q30HjEg
Vitamin D:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5865875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar...9fno6guQjzGMu0MAGbc4lXRlU2LGn-mmMS-u4P5C8mp-A
This study is a preprint and therefore needs to be confirmed even further through peer reviews, but I think it's worth bringing this attention. At least we learn something from it, and at least it does confirm that there is much more going on than just having bad luck and getting sick. It is clear that the stomach and intestinal flora are integral part of the functioning of our immune system. Think of the stomach as the place where bacteria and immune system meet. How that meeting goes is clearly crucial. " There are no second chances to make a first impression."
From the preliminary conclusion of the study, we can note that the Prevotella (one of the large types of bacteria that populate our stomach and intestinal flora) play a crucial role in the development of the coronavirus. The bacteria would be a carrier for the virus in this situation.
Some background information: the prevotella bacteria are responsible, among other things, for the digestion of carbohydrates, especially starch and sugar. Furthermore, we also find the species in the respiratory system, both in the lungs and upper respiratory tract.
Prevotella are also strong indicative of inflammation in the stomach and the rest of the body, both positive and negative. This once again points to their role as a facilitator or carrier. The problem with bacteria is especially that in fact we still know too little / nothing about it. After all, it is only the last decades that these are finally coming to attention and that research can be carried out.
With that in mind, no one can say for sure what exactly is, but in the current malaise, a connection does not seem far-fetched. Especially if we link the information of this preprint to other preprints (link) and ongoing studies that indicate overweight as a prominent risk factor for hospitalization due to the coronavirus (link), a clear pattern will be visible.
After all, there are several "causes" that seem to have a common basis. It would not be the disorders or overweight in itself, because the most logical explanation is to look for the common factors that cause this.
And there is: with the exception of congenital conditions, many disorders have their cause in people's lifestyle. Our lifestyle has a strong impact on the stomach and intestinal flora as well as on the immune system. Given the complexity, there is still a lot to be done, but it would explain why a lot of apparently healthy people get seriously ill anyway.
Anyway, what we already know in the meantime is that a good balance is needed in the stomach and intestinal flora. Several colonies must work together in a way. Even though it is rather a kind of struggle between the colonies, which is usually won by the species that is-in this case, literally-the most fed.
The statement is now that the Prevotella species has become too dominant compared to the balance that is naturally present for the people of Western European origin, causing serious health risks due to our lifestyle.
In combination with what we know about the role of sugar and less qualitative carbohydrates as cause of inflammation, it seems appropriate to pay attention to exaggerated carbohydrates and sugars, especially during this period where temptation can be particularly great because of boredom, frustrations and the general lack of movement.
Another striking trend in research towards solutions points towards (a shortage) of vitamin D. This is also fiercely related to our lifestyle.
So get out, move, socialize, soak up some sunshine, eat healthy food, skip the sugar and stimulants and avoid (social) media induced stress and anxiety.
Prevotella as a carrier:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339008515_The_2019_Wuhan_outbreak_is_caused_by_the_bacteria_Prevotella_which_is_aided_by_the_coronavirus_possibly_to_adhere_to_epithelial_cells_-_Prevotella_is_present_in_huge_amounts_in_patients_from_both_Chin
Prevotella info:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevotella
Stomach and intestinal system as a potential contamination route:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927806v1
Overweight:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32271993
& https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article&fbclid=IwAR1llKM06RHqnEXElwNn-5GO-reKVUIiwFR8aP2akJea6RzUHgT6Q30HjEg
Vitamin D:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5865875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar...9fno6guQjzGMu0MAGbc4lXRlU2LGn-mmMS-u4P5C8mp-A
Ahem.. ChinaItalian PM has just announced distancing and masks will be compulsory until a vaccine or a treatment is found. I hope he has a plan for where all these masks will come from.
Probably missing something, but are we not still reporting 800s every day? Not down to 200s?!
Christ. Liberate us from their stupidity. Just saw a comment about throwing in a 5g phone and watching them scatter
Is that Sinead O’Connor’s ex in the middle?
It is a graph based on the day the death occured, rather than the day the death was reported.
Not a brain cell between the lot of them, I wish we could be liberated from the idiocy of these people
So certainly subject to a backlog, and you presume gets back updated?
Needs more fleshing out, but not a good sign about hydrochloriquin coming out of the VA...
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They should hopefully always be empty.
They’re emergency capacity measures. If they’re empty, measures are working.
You have no clue what you’re talking about and you’ve still taken a point of position.
There are apparently many different mutations some of which are more deadly than others. New York City has been identified as having the most deadly strain whilst Washington State had a weaker strain. Think Italy were identified as having the most deadly strain too.
She’s saying that they’re bringing in intubated patients straight from ICU that are not conscious and their job is to get them breathing on their own again. I’m guessing these patients are pretty seriously ill but beyond the most dangerous point so it makes space in ICU for those in greater danger.
Absolutely sickening stuff. Even some people here said they can do what they want in their own country.
You would be tempted to go and buy them all as pets wouldn't you!
How do they even round these dogs up? Are people selling their pets?!
The previous pandemics originating from there were unfortunate, but there's no getting away from this one - something needs to change.
Yep, I’d buy the lot of them if possible.
You’d imagine most are strays and gathered up through opportunism.
Just appalling.
A few of them looked really healthy Labrador types, that can't be wild.
Just makes it even worse.
I'm surprised some of the dogs weren't looking a bit more panicked, with dead dogs on the top of their cage. Horrific.
It does make you want to get over there and storm the camp, but I suppose just like south americans who harvest and sell plants that are used for cocaine, these locals have only this way to make money.
Doesn't make it right, but explains why.
Dogs are accepting and trusting. So sad. Watching again I think you’re right. Unless they have been bred and raised for this?
What about this vaccine by the scientists at Oxford university? It seems that they are so confident that they have ordered manufacturing too.
https://covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/volunteer
If anyone wants to register, this is the website for the Oxford University vaccine.
If anyone wants to register, this is the website for the Oxford University vaccine.
Probably just a mix of wild dogs in the main, but also a few people selling their pets in - although of course dogs as pets isn't anywhere as big a thing as in the west. Otherwise they wouldn't be selling them as meat!
They don't strike me as being the patient types to rear dogs for this? Would take too long.
I thought the same as you, but am sure I read that you have to start production as soon as possible to minimise any time lag.
Sounds bonkers logic to me, as what if they don't pass the tests!
https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/health/belfast-doctor-dies-after-self-18121823
Obviously every death is tragic but stories like this really break my heart. Dying alone, because he wanted to protect his colleagues and patients.
Obviously every death is tragic but stories like this really break my heart. Dying alone, because he wanted to protect his colleagues and patients.