SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Ekkie Thump]

Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Reported deaths grew by 46 to 784. Certainly seems like we've at least reached a plateau.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average, hopefully it remains above the daily death line.
Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:

Spoiler: graph

Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Reported deaths were 778, 6 fewer than Saturday. Pretty confident we're on the slide now.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:

Spoiler: graph

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

778 deaths in England announced today. Will cause big headlines, but isn't actually changing the picture of a slow decline in numbers of deaths.

Oooof. That's a big hike. Obviously we were looking at a couple of hundred more but 300+ on yesterday is a big hike. Let's hope it's an early peak this week, then, and the numbers don't keep climbing as the week goes on. We had 900+ on Good Friday, it dropped by 100 last Friday.....anything less than a decrease again this Friday would really demoralising, I reckon.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

What I found pretty striking is that the Nightingale hospital is almost empty and there's next to no coverage of it.

If it was the other way round you could be sure as hell they would be sticking a reminder into every advert break.

They put structures in place to handle a worst case scenario.

Let’s not start complaining we over prepared. We have only got a few things right. The Nightingales are one of those few things.

The successes should have been box ticking exercises;

Beds
PPE
Equipment
Staffing numbers
Supply chain
Nationwide logistics
Testing
Media
Science

The UK has been inept at so many turns. We have got more wrong than we have got right. I would be bringing criminal proceedings against top level government if I could.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Except for hiding those first cases in the Ischgl ski resort, until tourists started popping up with it on their return home all across Europe.

A lot of diseases come out of Ishgl year on year. A friend told me.

 

[arnie_ni]

Going to fill the oil tank in a few days. Virtually half price compared to an order i placed in November

 

[11101]

However there remain concerns that changing patterns of behaviour could spike a further peak. For example - I've noticed loads of discarded gloves and masks in my supermarket car park. If lockdown is relaxed, but on the proviso that you wear a mask and gloves on public transport....what happens to all the discarded gloves? - they could become a new transmission vector if not disposed of correctly.

Unless people are quickly picking them up again it wont be an issue, and who would pick up discarded rubber gloves and masks bare handed at the best of times?

 

[Sara125]

It's not a similar business model, majority of their business is third party branded products.

You’re right actually. I was thinking along the lines of sports direct also buying in bulk and their products are cheap (cheap compared to others that sell the same brands like JD and footlocker)

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Unless people are quickly picking them up again it wont be an issue, and who would pick up discarded rubber gloves and masks bare handed at the best of times?

Yeah, I don’t see discarded gloves/masks being much of a vector. But the laziness and lack of basic decency which sees people chuck them on the ground - instead of binning them - doesn’t bode well.

 

[Coxy]

What I found pretty striking is that the Nightingale hospital is almost empty and there's next to no coverage of it.

If it was the other way round you could be sure as hell they would be sticking a reminder into every advert break.

...... Good?

 

[RobinLFC]

Pubs and restaurants re-opening in Austria as from May 15th. I wouldn't mind if Belgium waited another 2-3 weeks to re-open ours and first look at amount of cases in Austria tbh.

 

[Dancfc]

...... Good?

Absolutely, we appear to be at the peak and are not overwhelmed, which was the main fear hence the building of them.

 

[golden_blunder]

This new test (see above) makes you sound like another know it all, know feck all.
Just because massi, the insufferable nitpicking pedant from redcafe “told me”, means naff all to me mate, I listen to experts.

Maybe take a step back and realise you don’t have all of the answers, if any. As I suggested, pregnant woman go into a completely different section of a hospital, nowhere near to where Covid-19 patients are doctors/nurses would be and weren’t/aren’t much more at risk, if at all.

I don’t know percentages but it’s certainly not risk free. Do they not all go to the same staff cafe or shop for lunch? Do people not come in from outside with the virus? Just because it’s a seperate ward doesn’t mean that infection doesn’t get in. We’ve already seen a few stories not mothers and babies testing positive. They obviously had it before they came in

 

[Penna]

Going to fill the oil tank in a few days. Virtually half price compared to an order i placed in November

Great idea, get all ready for next winter at rock-bottom prices.

 

[Garethw]

778 deaths in England announced today. Will cause big headlines, but isn't actually changing the picture of a slow decline in numbers of deaths.

I’ve seen reports saying 873.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

I’ve seen reports saying 873.

UK altogether maybe? Think Scotland reported a good 50.

 

[F-Red]

Absolutely, we appear to be at the peak and are not overwhelmed, which was the main fear hence the building of them.

We have to take those pictures not of a sign of our own path in this pandemic, but as a reminder that when we reopen the country up, that it'll fill very quickly. The point to note here is that hospitals have pretty much cancelled all but absolute emergency procedures. They're pushing about 95-98% covid treatment. Those field hospitals will be needed when we have to get normal hospital procedures back up and running.

 

[11101]

They put structures in place to handle a worst case scenario.

Let’s not start complaining we over prepared. We have only got a few things right. The Nightingales are one of those few things.

The successes should have been box ticking exercises;

Beds
PPE
Equipment
Staffing numbers
Supply chain
Nationwide logistics
Testing
Media
Science

The UK has been inept at so many turns. We have got more wrong than we have got right. I would be bringing criminal proceedings against top level government if I could.

When this is all finished the government's handling will be pored over by media and experts for years to come. The results will be down to how the UK handled it compared to other similar countries. So far there's not much on that list that hasn't been levelled at pretty much every other country.


The one that stands out, as usual in the UK, is the media. Absolute cretins the lot of them. We are the only country i have seen where the media hasn't though it might be better to push a united front and just provide information and advice for a while. Every article is some journalist or other fighting to get their name in lights. They're pathetic.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

We have to take those pictures not of a sign of our own path in this pandemic, but as a reminder that when we reopen the country up, that it'll fill very quickly. The point to note here is that hospitals have pretty much cancelled all but absolute emergency procedures. They're pushing about 95-98% covid treatment. Those field hospitals will be needed when we have to get normal hospital procedures back up and running.

At least we're somewhat ready for it then I guess.

 

[Garethw]

UK altogether maybe? Think Scotland reported a good 50.

Ah that could be it mate.

 

[spiriticon]

How is it that the Nightingale hospital is empty and we still have 900 deaths a day??

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

How is it that the Nightingale hospital is empty and we still have 900 deaths a day??

900 deaths a day opens up a lot of hospital beds?

 

[VP89]

How is it that the Nightingale hospital is empty and we still have 900 deaths a day??

I was thinking why it's not really used, but perhaps hospitals generally still have beds available?

 

[Virgil]

Was screened when I went to Nigeria at the end of January.
Nigeria has been carrying out contact tracing from the very first index case. Don't know how accurate the numbers are but it has been able to limit the spread to 540 with a population of over 200 million.
I was scratching my head when I heard officials in the US and UK say they didn't have the capacity to contact trace in the beginning.

They put structures in place to handle a worst case scenario.

Let’s not start complaining we over prepared. We have only got a few things right. The Nightingales are one of those few things.

The successes should have been box ticking exercises;

Beds
PPE
Equipment
Staffing numbers
Supply chain
Nationwide logistics
Testing
Media
Science

The UK has been inept at so many turns. We have got more wrong than we have got right. I would be bringing criminal proceedings against top level government if I could.

What we were totally inept in is believing that in the event of a pandemic the world would act as one rather than each country looking after its own. For me one of the major things we can learn from this debacle is that chasing goods at the lowest possible price is complete wrong. We can’t produce enough PPE why....... because we have sold our manufacturing industry down the river just so that we can benefit from cheap Chinese and Asian imports from sweat shops. And did we care .....like feck we did. And now we wonder why we cannot produce enough bloody stupid.

 

[spiriticon]

I was thinking why it's not really used, but perhaps hospitals generally still have beds available?

900 deaths a day opens up a lot of hospital beds?

Well that would mean that our standard of healthcare is just really awful and has nothing to do with reaching capacity.

 

[F-Red]

I was thinking why it's not really used, but perhaps hospitals generally still have beds available?

Hospital still have beds, they're not at max capacity yet. However this is on the basis of them suspending all other hospital treatment (other than emergency patients that don't have the virus).

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Well that would mean that our standard of healthcare is just really awful and has nothing to do with reaching capacity.

Under normal circumstances, sure; however, COVID19 can be rather deadly.

 

[spiriticon]

Under normal circumstances, sure; however, COVID19 can be rather deadly.

If you are sleeping on the hospital floor with 1,000 other people and have no access to oxygen or a ventilator, I get that your chances of survival are slim.

If you are receiving the right level of healthcare you really should survive it, bar a very unfortunate 1 or 2%.

 

[F-Red]

If you are sleeping on the hospital floor with 1,000 other people and have no access to oxygen or a ventilator, I get that your chances of survival are slim.

If you are receiving the right level of healthcare you really should survive it, bar a very unfortunate 1 or 2%.

You're getting confused a bit, they're only admitting very seriously ill patients (mainly those struggling to breath). The rate of admission vs the death rate will have proportionally high figures because of their selection of those being critically ill. There are a high number surviving and leaving hospital also.

You make it sound like we're admitting all with symptoms of the disease, which as we know the majority recover from it and don't even touch a hospital.

 

[11101]

Well that would mean that our standard of healthcare is just really awful and has nothing to do with reaching capacity.

Not much that can be done at the moment even with the best healthcare, just plug them into oxygen and buy some time for their body to fight on its own.

Oxygen and ventilators haven't run out so there's not much more the hospitals can do for admitted patients.

 

[spiriticon]

You're getting confused a bit, they're only admitting very seriously ill patients (mainly those struggling to breath). The rate of admission vs the death rate will have proportionally high figures because of their selection of those being critically ill. There are a high number surviving and leaving hospital also.

You make it sound like we're admitting all with symptoms of the disease, which as we know the majority recover from it and don't even touch a hospital.

Maybe we are lucky in the sense that we don't have many critically ill patients but it really should be around 5-10% of the positive cases.

Also if we have all that extra capacity maybe we could give some of the older infected people in care homes some proper medical attention?

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

Twitter says it does not currently see evidence that the UK government has tried to manipulate coronavirus conversations using fake accounts.

It comes after claims began circulating on social media implying the Department of Health and Social Care was behind a network of Twitter accounts pretending to be NHS staff.

These accounts, which were allegedly posting in support of the government, appear to have been deleted.

The Department of Health tweeted that the claims were “categorically false”.

Twitter adds that it “will remove any pockets of smaller coordinated attempts to distort or inorganically influence the conversation”.

The BBC also currently has no evidence to support the suggestion these allegedly fake accounts had anything to do with the UK government.

 

[berbatrick]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[golden_blunder]

Hundreds of companies have tried to contact the government to offer help and they have been ignored. Just look at your local MP's twitter feed and you will see companies and groups offering assistance via their MP. The MP's are tearing their hair out as the government is failing to respond.

It's ironic that Boris is such a fan of Churchill and yet he failed to learn the lessons Churchill did at Dunkirk. This was a "little ships" moment where hundreds of small labs offered support with testing. Textile firms have offered help with gowns and masks, Engineering companies have offered to manufacture proven ventilator technology.

They have all largely been ignored by Government cronies who have googled it and think they have a better / cheaper solution. It's only later they realise they are having to wait for it to be shipped from overseas! I wouldn't trust them to run an ebay shop!

IF we had engaged with these firms earlier, you would see a health and social care system that was adequately protected and not acting as a vector of disease. Some people in government have a lot of deaths on their hands that should have been avoided. Spain and Italy were caught by surprise but look at how other European countries have responded who had the same amount of warning.

They have messed up a shopping and procurement exercise. Good luck with this team delivering anything else!

And this lot was trusted to deliver brexit.
Piss up in a brewery springs to mind!

 

[F-Red]

Also if we have all that extra capacity maybe we could give some of the older infected people in care homes some proper medical attention?

I don't get the need for the whataboutery on this point - if they need emergency assistance, then they're going to hospital. These field hospitals aren't some kind of hotel. They have capacity because they're admitting only patients who need breathing assistance. When they open up hospitals to carry out normal procedures, which they aren't doing currently, then they will need that capacity quickly as a second peak happens.

 

[spiriticon]

I don't get the need for the whataboutery on this point - if they need emergency assistance, then they're going to hospital. These field hospitals aren't some kind of hotel. They have capacity because they're admitting only patients who need breathing assistance. When they open up hospitals to carry out normal procedures, which they aren't doing currently, then they will need that capacity quickly as a second peak happens.

There's no what aboutery. The whole point of opening up these field hospitals is to deal with the excess strain that COVID-19 poses. If we have so much excess capacity that the hospital is pretty much empty, then we are probably being too picky about who we admit.

We really should only need to pick and choose who goes into hospital when we are already operating at maximum. If we are not at maximum, we should relax those selection procedures so even more people can have adequate medical attention and we can save more lives.

The Nightingale should be at least half-full. If not with already seriously ill people then at least with those who are at the highest risk of being seriously ill.

The only time our hospitals should ever remain empty is when we have 0 deaths from COVID-19.

 

[Garethw]

Hospital still have beds, they're not at max capacity yet. However this is on the basis of them suspending all other hospital treatment (other than emergency patients that don't have the virus).

A very good friend of mine that is only 46 Years old was scheduled to have surgery as his Cancerous brain tumour had returned. This got cancelled due to the lockdown and Covid outbreak.

I found out yesterday that the tumour Is now inoperable and his wife has had to get the palliative care team involved as he has gone down hill the last few weeks and can barely stand on his own and has virtually no short term memory.

Covid19 won’t kill him but him and thousands of others like him will have their life expectancies cut short because of it.

 

[F-Red]

There's no what aboutery. The whole point of opening up these field hospitals is to deal with the excess strain that COVID-19 poses. If we have so much excess capacity that the hospital is pretty much empty, then we are probably being too picky about who we admit.

You really should only need to pick and choose who goes into hospital when you are already operating at maximum. If you are not at maximum, you should relax those selection procedures so even more people can have adequate medical attention and we can save more lives.

Huge amounts of whataboutery. We are being picky about who we admit? If ever we need an armchair commentator to the NHS then we'll let you know. It's simple to understand why we have capacity, a combination of moving through the first wave of cases, with social distancing impacting both cases and admissions means the capacity is currently there. In principle, as there is no vaccine, saving lives is about the individuals reaction to the virus. They're admitting those that need oxygen support which is the right approach, if you don't need to go into hospital - then it's pretty clear to avoid it altogether.

The Nightingale should be at least half-full. If not with already seriously ill people then at least with those who are at the highest risk of being seriously ill.

The only time our hospitals should ever remain empty is when we have 0 deaths from COVID-19.

The Nightingale shouldn't be full if it doesn't need it to be, if there are no cases and hospitals have capacity then they should be there. To call on the success of the field hospitals now is foolish, and even more foolish to measure its success on how many people are in them. The reality is that their intended purpose is for when we open up the hospitals back to normal operating policy for normal admissions (Cancer treatment, transplants, Outpatients etc).

 

[F-Red]

A very good friend of mine that is only 46 Years old was scheduled to have surgery as his Cancerous brain tumour had returned. This got cancelled due to the lockdown and Covid outbreak.

I found out yesterday that the tumour Is now inoperable and his wife has had to get the palliative care team involved as he has gone down hill the last few weeks and can barely stand on his own and has virtually no short term memory.

Covid19 won’t kill him but him and thousands of others like him will have their life expectancies cut short because of it.

That's horrible news, sorry to hear it. My partner lost her cousin to the same thing a few years back, and the deterioration part is the worst bit to watch.

 

[arnie_ni]

Great idea, get all ready for next winter at rock-bottom prices.

Taking advance of an awful situation but to good to pass up as rude as it is

 

[Maagge]

What happened with deaths in Sweden today? Yesterday was 40, today is 185, and more people in the ICU than yesterday as well.

EDIT: Looking at their data over time it could be a case of the way they're reporting their data.