SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
feck, seems that reinfection is really a thing, and not simply some cases which were false negatives the first time around.
https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity
This is really really bad if true. Essentially, we'll have another cold/flu with us for the future. One which is far more dangerous than normal cold.
https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity
This is really really bad if true. Essentially, we'll have another cold/flu with us for the future. One which is far more dangerous than normal cold.
Sorry to hear this geebs! It must have hurt even more by not being able to attend his funeral. feck this year!
Below is a link to the article that I posted yesterday. The first vaccine is ready and have been proved to be safe at least short term. All participants of these clinical trials are producing antibodies. A close friend of mine who is a member of the vaccine development group sounded really positive over the phone. "The minimum that we are expecting is 2 years immunity, which would be a huge step forward. If we win time, we will beat the virus for sure."
https://www.financialexpress.com/li...inical-trials-of-coronavirus-vaccine/2021433/
https://www.financialexpress.com/li...inical-trials-of-coronavirus-vaccine/2021433/
Thanks bud. It's been a shitty period for a lot of people, yeah. I/we still have lots to be grateful for.
We seem to have one of the lowest, if not the lowest, mortality rates in the world - strangely. I think we're just over 1% and I am not sure why it is so low - considering I don't think we've done great testing (we've tested over 2million people according to the president last night - of a circa 56m population). Maybe undiagnosed deaths? But yeah, we seem to be doing ok with mortality (it is currently just over 3,500 deaths or something), with over 250,000 active cases and more than 100,000 recoveries. Projections could go south quickly though. Expected mortality is over 50,000 apparently. Last night we had a briefing that well be remaining at lockdown level 3. They were considering going to a stricter level 4 or 5, but apparently the number of infections we'd "save on" isn't worth the additional strain on the economy. Liquor sales have been banned again, with immediate effect. They've found too much additional strain on hospital resources with the opening of alcohol sales (ER room casualities due to alcohol incidence/violence etc).
So yeah, fun times.
That is still very speculative, the quoted doctor acknowledges there is a chance the patient didn't clear the infection the first time round. Even if it is a reinfection, it's one in 13 million so far.
Also consider that nobody knows how dangerous the common cold and other coronaviruses were when they first appeared. If Covid does become endemic it will lose power over time.
So potentially we now have a new yearly infection to worry about, and it'll become the norm. "Oh, Barry couldn't come to dinner tonight because he's got a touch of the Coronavirus today". We'll be told by politicians and the press alike that it's the new normal, nothing anybody can do about it, blah blah. Meanwhile nobody will be held accountable for the initial spread of this thing just like nobody was held accountable for the financial crash.
And to make matters worse Trumpers will start becoming more obnoxious and Downton Abbey will probably return for another season of boring subservient posho wankery.
Happy Monday everyone.
And to make matters worse Trumpers will start becoming more obnoxious and Downton Abbey will probably return for another season of boring subservient posho wankery.
Happy Monday everyone.
Happy Monday to you too
Yeah seriously, if it went down like the woman says I’d be swapping doctors and reporting the current one faster than you can say Coronavirus.
You're twisting my melon man!
Aye, it's a nice day to be fair. I might tease the dog and make him think we're not going for walkies and then I'll totally take him out for walkies. That'll surprise him.Happy Monday to you too
The other non-catastrophic possibility is a false positive the first time round. Common cold Coronavirus testing positive for SARS-COV2. Which would also explain the much more severe illness second time round.
Having said that, that’s the second anecdotal example I’ve heard of people getting a second infection, months after fully recovering from the first dose. I do wonder if/how these examples are being collected/analysed worldwide.
I’d say that will definitely happen. But maybe not in our lifetimes.
Is it still the assumption that a PCR test positive is (more or less) 100% correct, but those 15 minute "fast test" positives had a built-in unreliability due to the tests sometimes getting confused by other coronaviruses?
It’s the “more or less”’ that matters here. A PCR test positive is extremely reliable (much more reliable than a negative PCR) but false positives can happen. We’ve just got to cross our fingers and hope that happened here. When you’re testing millions of people, even 99.999% accuracy will give some people the wrong answers.
And yes, the portable “fast test” things are pretty useless.
It is not one in 13 million. There were many other cases but people thought that likely they were tested negative wrongly the first time. Here, it seems that he had 2 tests resulting negative a couple of months before the reinfection.
Of course it will likely become weaker over time, but it might take many years to do so.
Odds are the first versions of the vaccines to get through to us won’t be near 100% effective anyway, right? We probably need to strap in for a long ride...and maybe invest in a fashion mask business.
It is not, but it is not exactly tens of thousands, either.
As the author of the article you posted says, people who have had it once are unlikely to be too cautious, thinking that they cannot be infected again, as is the common opinion right now.
So, you would expect to have tens of thousands of reinfections out of those 10+ million and reinfections would be a known thing without reasonable doubt by now.
Something is very fishy.
It seems that, in some people, immunity lasts shorter than in others, but it is not exactly common to get infected twice in three months. Apart from that, I am not sure what it is that some of you guys are reacting to. I think it has been understood by now that the immunity is rather temporary.
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That whole tweet seems iffy to me. R/thathappened
Would there be tens of thousands? That article mentions 3 months, there weren't that many infected at that point and the odds of that subset getting it again must be very slim especially in areas where it's now low.
I could understand prior disbelief about immediate reinfection but is it really unlikely that immunity could be wearing off at this stage? Especially those previously with low doses of the virus and asymptomatic.
If the very mild/asymptomatic cases catch it second time then the chances are they will be mistakenly be assumed to have never had it before, as most of them weren’t tested the first time round.
Reading that tweet all I can think without reading the actual evidence is that it’s absolutely loaded with bias and the author is desperate to have previous claims proven correct which is a major major red flag on the whole critical thinking bit.
it's that man.
Amazing what you can infer from less than 144 characters.
Oh sure, it is a coronavirus after all so immunity was always going to be temporary. The hope though was that it is gonna be a bit longer (maybe 1-3 years like for SARS/MERS). If we get immunity only for a couple of months, then we would probably need vaccines every 3-6 months instead of every couple of years I thought.
Yeah for sure. I heard some comparisons with flu, that the vaccine might be only 40-50% effective. I am not sure how true this is (after all the flu vaccine defends you for 3 very different flu versions, so individually each of them needs to be very effective for the overall effectivity to be 40-50%). 40-50% will make things better, but it won't achieve herd immunity. Seems that masks are here to stay.
UK 11 deaths, 530 cases.
Sun/Mon are usually very low
NYC reported zero deaths in last 24 hours
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...r-first-time-since-start-of-pandemic/2511864/
Sun/Mon are usually very low
NYC reported zero deaths in last 24 hours
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...r-first-time-since-start-of-pandemic/2511864/
I heard that the reason we saw longer lasting immunity with SARS/MERS is that the only patients followed up with those diseases had a serious illness. For serious cases of COVID-19 you could get a similar duration of immunity. It’s the mild cases who might be vulnerable to reinfection a few months later.
If they get the same severity every time then that’s not too big a deal. For them anyway. It does take eradication off the table though.
There seems to be new research showing that COVID attacks endothelial function, which may explain why older COVID patients and those dealing with obesity, diabetes, and other cardiovascular conditions are prime candidates to die. Whereas younger people tend to be less affected because they have much better endothelial function.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0343-0
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0343-0
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This theory has been doing the rounds for a while. Which is good news for anyone taking statins.
If first vaccines buy us at least 1 year, I would be very hopeful. Funfeckingtastic news from Russia already, hopefully, Oxford will give us something to cheer about as well.
It would also seem to bode well for people who want to regulate their endothelial function through lifestyle changes (primarily diet) as a means to beat COVID.
Swiss paper from a few months ago had done autopsies on Covid patients and seen these signs in patients with small bowel ischaemia (among other things). We've had a few patients with small bowel ischaemia in our ward who weren't obvious risk patients for that (in terms of arteriosclerosis and generalalised cardiovascular disease). I'd say that inflammation and primary endothelial engagement was more likely than arteriosclerosis, and thromboembolic events were unlikely with the anticoagulation regime we had.
Makes sense what you say.
I thought that eradication was always off the table, and this "finding" totally guarantees the existence of the virus for the future. The best bet seems to be regular vaccination (once or twice for the year) and to find new drugs. Actually, getting good new drugs for it might turn out to be more important than vaccination. Also, it would be imperative to find new efficient ways of testing, so people can be tested regularly.
If it will circulate as much as flu/common colds caused by coronaviruses, then I think that the life average is gonna get lower. Old people and people with chronic diseases won't be ever sure.
What happened to Russia?
I thought that only Oxford and China are already on stage 3 trials (with Moderna joining them in a couple of weeks).
Interesting.The whole thrombosis thing seems to be a big issue, even for patient on serious doses of LMWH. So much so that I’ve heard ITU docs say that the main driver of pulmonary pathology is microthrombi in the vascular bed, rather than damage to the airways.
I wasn’t mentioning statins re prevention of lipid plaques, so much as the way they are supposed to generally stabilise/improve endothelial function. The big caveat here being that lots of people on statins will have established CV disease, so are more likely to have a bad outcome regardless.
Yeah. We ended up going with double (prophylaxis) dose LMWH + ASA + low dose Heparin infusion in our Covid patients and (apparent) thromboembolic events lowered, but did not disappear despite that. We still had trouble with dialysis catheters clotting, clotting of extremity veins and so on, but fewer patient with acute onset pulmonary hypertension and right ventricle failure.
I didn't mean to make any comment at all either way wrt statins, I just meant to say that I agreed with the "primary endothelitis" theory from the patients that I saw. Statins could be useful there, but I haven't seen any overwhelming evidence indicating that so far. Have become a bit saturated recently (and had a 2 week holiday) so not been keeping up to date with the absolute latest regarding that.
They are launching a vaccine next month:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020...ronavirus-vaccine-launch-in-mid-august-a70858
There’s zero evidence re statins. You’ve missed nothing. It’s just a theory. Glad to hear you got in a two week holiday. Much deserved, I’m sure!