SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[africanspur]

I always find this a weird claim.
"One of the most isolated countries in the world".
Sure we are an Island nation and a 10 hour flight from the USA and of course longer for Europe. We are however highly connected with the world during normal times.

I don't think it is really that controversial a claim is it? I mean, there's no land link to any country, it needs at least 4 hours by plane (I believe) to hit the next country of any note (you're covering the overwhelming majority of Europe with that flight span) and the UK for instance gets about the same international visitors per month usually as NZ does in a year (France gets significantly more even than the UK). With Europe especially, you have lots of people who live in one country and commute daily to work in another. In some cases, different people living in 1 country may be cross-border commuting across multiple bordering countries on a daily basis. The continent is connected and compact enough that a weekend away or even day trip in another country is eminently doable for many inhabitants of the continent.

It is kind of similar to Australia really. When I was working there, I barely gave much of a thought to travelling abroad to be honest, other than NZ/various pacific islands. The length of almost any flight means I'd need a significant amount of leave to consider a trip abroad. Though Aussies seem to bloody love Bali.

I can see why you'd get frustrated by the phrase as I guess it kind of implies that NZ is this backwater which doesn't interact which is obviously not the case. And perhaps you feel it also detracts from the incredible work Ardern and NZ in general have done during this crisis.

The fundamental point of course is that NZ used this advantage to get a grip on it (so far, I hope it persists) and should be lauded for doing so. It would have been very easy to squander it.

Edit: Just to give another example: coming back from Brisbane for the last time (where I was working), my connecting flight was in Singapore, an 8 hour flight (and the shorter leg). With an 8 hour flight from London (or Paris etc), you are hitting 4 different continents.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I always find this a weird claim.
"One of the most isolated countries in the world".
Sure we are an Island nation and a 10 hour flight from the USA and of course longer for Europe. We are however highly connected with the world during normal times.
But the core of the result we got came from a very restrictive lockdown put in place early and maintained for as long as the govt could get away with it. Closing the border was absolutely an advantage we had, but the isolation claim really is just a case of diverting away from the true reality of what happened here. I spent 5 weeks in total only being permitted to go to the supermarket or go for a walk in my local streets for exercise. My mother and sister live just 15 kms away but under our restrictions I wasnt allowed to go visit under those restrictions. Maintaining the viruses elimination from the community relates very much to our border restrictions but the reason we got to where we are is not because of isolation. Also on the isolation front NZ has just recorded 5 months in a row of trade surpluses, one month being a record month. Clearly for a country thats so "isolated" we are still maintaining international contact. Also just now on our news our domestic spending is at July 2019 levels so our internal economy is at this point working hard at recovery.
But please stop the "one of most isolated country on earth" sillyness.

That’s a very good point about the lengthy hard lockdown and the role it played in eradication. You can’t really consider it in isolation from the closed borders though. Lots of European countries had similarly strict lockdowns but these were undermined by a constant flow of people in and out of their country from other countries with less stringent/effective lockdowns (I’m looking at you, England!).

It’s the combination of both approaches that worked so well for NZ. As well as, presumably, a fairly low initial caseload. Which is, again, different to European countries whose epidemics were kicked off by thousands of people travelling home from holidays in regions absolutely riddled with the virus.

Eradicating the virus is extremely difficult and NZ did well to achieve this. It’s clearly the best scenario in the short term. Every country would like to be in your scenario right now. Life 100% back to normal and people out spending money with no social distancing or fear at all. I think it’s still reasonable to point out that you had/have unique circumstances that helped you achieve that goal.

 

[Wibble]

I always find this a weird claim.
"One of the most isolated countries in the world".
Sure we are an Island nation and a 10 hour flight from the USA and of course longer for Europe. We are however highly connected with the world during normal times.
But the core of the result we got came from a very restrictive lockdown put in place early and maintained for as long as the govt could get away with it. Closing the border was absolutely an advantage we had, but the isolation claim really is just a case of diverting away from the true reality of what happened here. I spent 5 weeks in total only being permitted to go to the supermarket or go for a walk in my local streets for exercise. My mother and sister live just 15 kms away but under our restrictions I wasnt allowed to go visit under those restrictions. Maintaining the viruses elimination from the community relates very much to our border restrictions but the reason we got to where we are is not because of isolation. Also on the isolation front NZ has just recorded 5 months in a row of trade surpluses, one month being a record month. Clearly for a country thats so "isolated" we are still maintaining international contact. Also just now on our news our domestic spending is at July 2019 levels so our internal economy is at this point working hard at recovery.
But please stop the "one of most isolated country on earth" sillyness.

Agreed. Same is said about Australia despite the numerous daily flight to China including a direct flight to Wuhan.

NZ eliminated the virus because they closed their borders and locked down internally - that is how they isolated. Geography had little to do with it. Great leadership was the difference and perhaps if Australia wasn't led by evil donkeys we might have eliminated as well. (although I like Dan Andrews in Victoria a great deal, even in difficult circumstances, who is one of the few in power who isn't a grade 1 twat).

One thing Australia and NZ are showing is that elimination is the best way to boost the economy even if that is probably just a dream for many countries now they have et things get so out of control. I just hope we don't have to add Australia to that extensive list.

 

[Stack]

That’s a very good point about the lengthy hard lockdown and the role it played in eradication. You can’t really consider it in isolation from the closed borders though. Lots of European countries had similarly strict lockdowns but these were undermined by a constant flow of people in and out of their country from other countries with less stringent/effective lockdowns (I’m looking at you, the UK!).

It’s the combination of both approaches that worked so well for NZ. As well as, presumably, a fairly low initial caseload. Which is, again, different to European countries whose epidemics were kicked off by thousands of people travelling home from holidays in regions absolutely riddled with the virus.

Eradicating the virus is extremely difficult and NZ did well to achieve this. It’s clearly the best scenario in the short term. Every country would like to be in your scenario right now. Life 100% back to normal and people out spending money with no social distancing or fear at all. I think it’s still reasonable to point out that you had/have unique circumstances that helped you achieve that goal.

I dont argue that we had extraordinary circumstances but the "one of the most isolated countries on earth" comment is in my mind ridiculous. Its being used as a counter point to another argument which I do think is unfair, the one that Sweden didnt care about its people. They clearly do but making one ridiculous point to counter another sometimes to me looks silly

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I dont argue that we had extraordinary circumstances but the "one of the most isolated countries on earth" comment is in my mind ridiculous. Its being used as a counter point to another argument which I do think is unfair, the one that Sweden didnt care about its people. They clearly do but making one ridiculous point to counter another sometimes to me looks silly

In the modern, connected, world no country is completely isolated. Comparing NZ to an EU country you can see why people bring up its geography. As @africanspur said, most European countries have airports thronged every Monday and Friday with people commuting to a different country to do their job for the week. Which is why we consider NZ isolated to an extent that makes it completely non-comparable to the situation in Europe.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Anyhoo. Away from inter-country bickering, some good news about kids/schools etc

 

[F-Red]

We were testing more people at the beginning of June, yet cases were lower.

In Pillar 1 or Pillar 2?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

In Pillar 1 or Pillar 2?

Cases definitely on the rise in UK. Hence they’re considering increasing self-isolation from 7 to 10 days. Kind of blows my mind it’s only 7 right now. 14 days in Ireland (and most European countries?)

 

[F-Red]

Cases definitely on the rise in UK. Hence they’re considering increasing self-isolation from 7 to 10 days. Kind of blows my mind it’s only 7 right now. 14 days in Ireland (and most European countries?)

No doubt, but my point is that we're seeing an increase in testing & thus finding more cases - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day

The move from pillar one (hospital based tests) to pillar two tests, suggests more people are being tested in the community. Pillar two is pretty much assured as being one person, one test, which is the issue with the pillar one where it could be one person and multiple tests. Hospitalisations don't seem to be increasing with it, which is a good sign. It's clear from the localised outbreaks as well (Leicester, Blackburn, Oldham), that even those without symptoms are being invited to be tested.

On self isolation, the recommendation was to stop isolating after 7 days if you no longer have symptoms (not if you have it - big difference), if you have the symptoms then you're supposed to carry on. I don't think an extra three days will make any difference at all to that process if you don't have symptoms. The days should be governed by tests if I'm honest, and if you have no symptoms by day 7 or by 10, test comes back negative and then you stop isolating.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

No doubt, but my point is that we're seeing an increase in testing & thus finding more cases - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day

The move from pillar one (hospital based tests) to pillar two tests, suggests more people are being tested in the community. Pillar two is pretty much assured as being one person, one test, which is the issue with the pillar one where it could be one person and multiple tests. Hospitalisations don't seem to be increasing with it, which is a good sign. It's clear from the localised outbreaks as well (Leicester, Blackburn, Oldham), that even those without symptoms are being invited to be tested.

On self isolation, the recommendation was to stop isolating after 7 days if you no longer have symptoms (not if you have it - big difference), if you have the symptoms then you're supposed to carry on. I don't think an extra three days will make any difference at all to that process if you don't have symptoms. The days should be governed by tests if I'm honest, and if you have no symptoms by day 7 or by 10, test comes back negative and then you stop isolating.

Fair point re more community testing and milder/asymptomatic cases being picked up. This is happening everywhere and makes all the talk of increasing cases across Europe a little less scary.

I just think 7 days is far too short. Relying on symptoms doesn’t make a lot of sense because we know people can feel rough for weeks and weeks and, conversely, symptoms can wax and wane. They might feel better after the first few days, then deteriorate.

For HCWs who need to get back to work you can track fevers and do repeat testing so they’re not out two weeks every time but it just seems sensible to err on the side of caution for the general public.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

In the modern, connected, world no country is completely isolated. Comparing NZ to an EU country you can see why people bring up its geography. As @africanspur said, most European countries have airports thronged every Monday and Friday with people commuting to a different country to do their job for the week. Which is why we consider NZ isolated to an extent that makes it completely non-comparable to the situation in Europe.

Understood Stack, but as Pogue says above, I’m comparing it to the likes of Europe, and in that sense it absolutely is “isolated“ and had distinct advantages, and almost certainly with the original case load.
Plenty of European countries closed borders and locked down early, just like NZ, but never stood a chance of eradicating it, especially in the extremely short time it took NZ.
I did a working holiday in NZ and used to live in Sydney so I know it’s not an “isolated” country in that sense, but with regards to “closing up shop” it’s isolation was a huge advantage.
@africanspur explained exactly why.

 

[Santos J]

I think I had it in March/April, and since then I've been getting bouts (3-4 days at a time) where I'm getting a tight chest/shortness of breath. Been fine the vast majority of the time - but its noticeable because it feels exactly like the time I think I had the thing (that shortness of breath lasted over 2 weeks then).

Feel like this is the same with me. I have pectus excavatum so always had slight short breath at times but never anywhere near as much as I have since I feel like I've had it (March). Started with a bad cough for about 3 weeks, then the chest pain and then the shortness of breath. Had shortness of breath literally every day for a good 3 months and only then has it turned into bouts like yours where it's a few days at a time. Do you find it gets worse when doing certain things or does yours just come and go? Not been tested so can't be sure I've had it but feels like a crazy coincidence if not.

 

[RobinLFC]

NZ eliminated the virus because they closed their borders and locked down internally - that is how they isolated. Geography had little to do with it.

Disagree. Belgium and other European countries did exactly the same or were even more stringent during the lockdown yet we didn't succeed. Possibly because we were hit much harder and didn't act quickly enough, but it proves that NZ shouldn't be lauded just for their measures because they didn't (and won't) work everywhere.

Whether you consider NZ isolated or not, geography played a huge part in it since it's much easier to isolate yourself (and check who's coming in/going out) if you don't have any land borders with another country. There's a reason why the countries which were able to eradicate the virus altogether earliest were a lot of (small) islands.

 

[JPRouve]

Disagree. Belgium did exactly the same or was even more stringent during the lockdown yet we didn't succeed. Whether you consider NZ isolated or not, geography played a huge part in it since it's much easier to isolate yourself if you don't have any land borders with another country.

Same for France. Borders were closed and people couldn't move within the country. It just take a lot longer when one country has around 4 million visitors annually while the other has around 90m, when the populations are vastly different and people can still sneak in and out of the country if they really want to.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The majority view here is that Sweden and other countries like the US and UK (with added incompetence) took a deliberate choice to trade lives for the economy and that choice is unacceptable to the majority here.

We’ll see how/if that view changes over the coming months as the situation evolves in Australia. The Health Ministry give zero shits about the economy so the view is incorrect.
The choice was that the curve could be flattened without a lockdown and having lower numbers currently than Australia is testament to that. It was also a choice for the health of all of society, especially children (hence schools and kids sport remaining open the whole time).

 

[ha_rooney]

Quite a number of people (80-90%) wore masks today at the supermarket when I went. Unfortunately a fair few didn’t cover their nose, kinda defeats the purpose.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Disagree. Belgium and other European countries did exactly the same or were even more stringent during the lockdown yet we didn't succeed. Possibly because we were hit much harder and didn't act quickly enough, but it proves that NZ shouldn't be lauded just for their measures because they didn't (and won't) work everywhere.

Whether you consider NZ isolated or not, geography played a huge part in it since it's much easier to isolate yourself (and check who's coming in/going out) if you don't have any land borders with another country. There's a reason why the countries which were able to eradicate the virus altogether earliest were a lot of (small) islands.

Same for France. Borders were closed and people couldn't move within the country. It just take a lot longer when one country has around 4 million visitors annually while the other has around 90m, when the populations are vastly different and people can still sneak in and out of the country if they really want to.

Agreed.

I also find it funny the way Jacintha Aherne is such a poster girl for how to manage this pandemic while a far more unpopular and generally perceived as incompetent Australian government came extremely close to achieving the same outcome as NZ in a much bigger and more populous country.

Almost as though there’s more to eradicating the virus than government policy...

 

[Virgil]

Look in all honestly we got lucky on a number of fronts. At this point in history we have a PM who communicates well and puts peoples welfare at the forefront. We acted early relative to the diseases progress in NZ because we saw what was happening in Italy which had been forced to deal with the virus before we did. We had exceptional weather in Autumn here which made lockdown far more bearable. The sad thing is and I was guilty of this early on is that national pride turns this into some sort of perverted competition.

This sentiment I fully concur with and believe has happened even within this forum. The vitriol aimed at the U.K’s handling of the pandemic when the real tragedy is the loss of life is quite appalling particularly when the site only exists because of a U.K. football team.

 

[Stack]

Understood Stack, but as Pogue says above, I’m comparing it to the likes of Europe, and in that sense it absolutely is “isolated“ and had distinct advantages, and almost certainly with the original case load.
Plenty of European countries closed borders and locked down early, just like NZ, but never stood a chance of eradicating it, especially in the extremely short time it took NZ.
I did a working holiday in NZ and used to live in Sydney so I know it’s not an “isolated” country in that sense, but with regards to “closing up shop” it’s isolation was a huge advantage.
@africanspur explained exactly why.

I think ultimately what bugs me is this whole thing has become a sad point scoring exercise. I think the way Sweden is being charged with not caring for their citizens is awful because its absolutely not true. Others have pointed out that basically no one size fits all and what may have worked in one country wont work elsewhere. I get that sentiment.
The more rational voices in here spend their tie reporting links that show actual useful information and possible areas of hope etc. Those links and bits of info are far more interesting and useful than the nationalism. (I was guilty of)
The big thing to me now is how to live with the virus, I am pessimistic to how the whole vaccine thing will play out, that looks like a minefield. Anyway i hope you dont have to listen to the daft anti Sweden sentiment for much longer.

 

[JPRouve]

This sentiment I fully concur with and believe has happened even within this forum. The vitriol aimed at the U.K’s handling of the pandemic when the real tragedy is the loss of life is quite appalling particularly when the site only exists because of a U.K. football team.

I don't think that I have bashed a single country or even been consistently criticial. But the UK are one of the exceptions, the excess deaths in the UK can't be brushed aside, something really wrong happened in order to reach +65k.

 

[balaks]

I've just registered for vaccine trials through NHS and I'd encourage everybody to consider doing the same thing. Here is the link: http://www.nhs.uk/sign-up-to-be-contacted-for-research

There is no obligation to take part, all this does is give the NHS permission to contact you and let you know about possible trials you may be eligible for - you can decide not to go ahead with it.

 

[oates]

I think ultimately what bugs me is this whole thing has become a sad point scoring exercise.

Very sad.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I don't think that I have bashed a single country or even been consistently criticial. But the UK are one of the exceptions, the excess deaths in the UK can't be brushed aside, something really wrong happened in order to reach +65k.

You can also understand why this causes strong emotions in people from other EU countries. The mis-handling of the crisis in the UK (mainly England) directly affects all of their neighbours.

 

[Smores]

So they've increased the isolation to 10 days finally. It's like the government are tracking months behind the general consensus in this thread.

I can understand why the government are talking up the risks right now as people are getting too relaxed. A bit of me however feels like they know shits going to hit the fan in a few months.

 

[JPRouve]

You can also understand why this causes strong emotions in people from other EU countries. The mis-handling of the crisis in the UK (mainly England) directly affects all of their neighbours.

I'm not even thinking about UKs neighbours but UK citizens, they are the ones that deserve answers. The bulk of the crisis in the UK happened when other countries had stringent lockdowns so I don't think that we have been affected by it. Though maybe you have a difference experience in Ireland who has a different relationship with England but even then NI did a good job protecting themselves and therefore making it easier for Ireland?

 

[hmchan]

I always find this a weird claim.
"One of the most isolated countries in the world".
Sure we are an Island nation and a 10 hour flight from the USA and of course longer for Europe. We are however highly connected with the world during normal times.
But the core of the result we got came from a very restrictive lockdown put in place early and maintained for as long as the govt could get away with it. Closing the border was absolutely an advantage we had, but the isolation claim really is just a case of diverting away from the true reality of what happened here. I spent 5 weeks in total only being permitted to go to the supermarket or go for a walk in my local streets for exercise. My mother and sister live just 15 kms away but under our restrictions I wasnt allowed to go visit under those restrictions. Maintaining the viruses elimination from the community relates very much to our border restrictions but the reason we got to where we are is not because of isolation. Also on the isolation front NZ has just recorded 5 months in a row of trade surpluses, one month being a record month. Clearly for a country thats so "isolated" we are still maintaining international contact. Also just now on our news our domestic spending is at July 2019 levels so our internal economy is at this point working hard at recovery.
But please stop the "one of most isolated country on earth" sillyness.

Just wondering, is New Zealand self-sufficient in most of the essentials and resources? In Hong Kong we've been controlling the situation pretty well for months, until recently someone from the immigration exception list has brought the virus back to community and caused the third wave.

 

[F-Red]

something really wrong happened in order to reach +65k.

Combination of things, but the large accelerant was discharging 15,000 patients from hospital by the 26th March, back into care or residential settings without any testing for at least 2-3 weeks on those patients. Which is why we had such an issue in care homes. If reports are correct, an excess of 30,000 deaths within care home settings.

 

[Buster15]

If you actually read into the data its hardly alarming, less scare mongering would be great.

I did. And if you call a daily average increase of over 100 cases scaremongering, then I am sorry for you.

 

[F-Red]

I did. And if you call a daily average increase of over 100 cases scaremongering, then I am sorry for you.

Did you read the data though? The daily increase was 5% of the reported number, the bulk (65%) of them came from tests on Monday and about another 30% came from tests from last week.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I'm not even thinking about UKs neighbours but UK citizens, they are the ones that deserve answers. The bulk of the crisis in the UK happened when other countries had stringent lockdowns so I don't think that we have been affected by it. Though maybe you have a difference experience in Ireland who has a different relationship with England but even then NI did a good job protecting themselves and therefore making it easier for Ireland?

For sure, it’s UK citizens affected most of all. I mention neighbours only in the context of the way this thread is always full of between country comparisons. Which feels competitive. Non Uk people pointing out how badly the Uk have handled this aren’t just being competitive. They’re worried about how it will affect their own country.

From an Irish perspective NI have done a great job but we still have a huge two way flow of people in and out of the island if Ireland from the mainland UK. Which is a nightmare tbh.

 

[Buster15]

We're testing more people, that's the reason for the increase.

Just because you test more people does not account for the rise in the number of cases.
If you test 1 person or 100 and there are no actual cases, the number is still zero.

 

[hmchan]

I don't think that I have bashed a single country or even been consistently criticial. But the UK are one of the exceptions, the excess deaths in the UK can't be brushed aside, something really wrong happened in order to reach +65k.

China deserves to be blamed and criticzed for causing the pandemic. They have plenty of opportunities to contain the virus like SARS, instead they try to cover up and allow the spread to go on.

 

[Buster15]

Did you read the data though? The daily increase was 5% of the reported number, the bulk (65%) of them came from tests on Monday and about another 30% came from tests from last week.

Yes I did.
The article clearly stated a 14% increase in the daily average number of cases.

 

[hmchan]

Chinese virologist, who fled Hong Kong, accuses Beijing of coronavirus cover-up

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I’m sure China has questions to answer but as far as evidence against them goes, that news segment is far from damning. All we got from their supposed mole was a fee sentences about how difficult the situation has been in China and vague accusations of corruption. The rest is all Fox News putting words in her mouth which fit the Trump agenda. Let her speak ffs.

 

[hmchan]

I’m sure China has questions to answer but as far as evidence against them goes, that news segment is far from damning. All we got from their supposed mole was a fee sentences about how difficult the situation has been in China and vague accusations of corruption. The rest is all Fox News putting words in her mouth which fit the Trump agenda. Let her speak ffs.

I've editted my post and included the full interview.

 

[F-Red]

Just because you test more people does not account for the rise in the number of cases.
If you test 1 person or 100 and there are no actual cases, the number is still zero.

It does actually, you don't really understand the pillar one and pillar two data.

If you're testing solely on pillar one, which is hospitalised cases, then you're going to find limited or little cases as people who have either recovered and discharged, or unfortunately died. As admissions decline, the relevance of pillar one data is only based upon what is currently in hospital. Which as every hospital is reporting low admissions, the case data is limited.

The capacity then starts to shift on pillar two, which is community based testing. Which up until recently has only been for people with symptoms and recommended to test via 111. Now they've identified hot spot areas (Leicester, Blackburn, Oldham etc), they've opened up testing to people who don't show or have any symptoms, and this will include people with asymptomatic covid in the case data. Something which we never would have got to if we didn't increase the testing of people. Seeing as we're not seeing a relative increase of hospitalisations in line with cases, it would suggest that we're seeing the result of increased testing and potentially the findings of asymptomatic cases within the community.

In the last 30 days, we've gone from 1.34 tests per 100k people to 1.81 per 100k people.

 

[prateik]

Fox News.. zero credibility.

 

[Stack]

Just wondering, is New Zealand self-sufficient in most of the essentials and resources? In Hong Kong we've been controlling the situation pretty well for months, until recently someone from the immigration exception list has brought the virus back to community and caused the third wave.

We are self sufficient in electricity generation, food etc. We have to import our oil of course.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I've editted my post and included the full interview.

Cool. Thanks. Just watched it. It doesn’t surprise me at all to hear that China was slow/misleading in letting the rest of the world now this virus was jumping from human to human and spreading out of control. It does seem as though they only delayed for a month or so. By late January the whole world knew how dangerous this virus was, so the delays and missteps from that point onwards can’t be blamed on China.