SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Fluctuation0161]

No comments on the Russian vaccine due out in October?
Reports say they’re going to give it to doctors and teachers first. I think they should start with the politburo, then the mid level party members. Then if it’s safe the doctors, nurses and teachers.

Ha! True.

A rushed Russian vaccine without proper testing and processes being followed would not appeal to me!

Knowing Boris and his oligarch links the UK will probably be first in line!

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

All from 1 booty call FFS.

Is there confirmation of this now Wibs? What’s the source?
From what I’ve read that appears to be pure speculation from local media rather than any science whatsoever.

 

[Smores]

Abuse is never on but I'd like some explanation as to how a chronic pain condition and psychiatric issues should make you exempt from wearing a mask outside.

I'm guessing it's the panic attacks that's the issue. I've got fibromyalgia (relatively mild) and it wouldn't be an issue for me, fibro charities were even pushing a wear a branded mask thing as an awareness campaign.

You could certainly wear one and take it off if needed.

 

[Amar__]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/v...s-march-in-berlin-anti-lockdown-protest-video

When Germans act like this then you know that human have lost their head.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/v...s-march-in-berlin-anti-lockdown-protest-video

When Germans act like this then you know that human have lost their head.

15,000 of 86,000,000 to be fair.

 

[golden_blunder]

Ireland infections snaking back up again.

 

[Jacko21]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Wibble]

Is there confirmation of this now Wibs? What’s the source?

Not 100% but very likely. Serology strongly suggests a single source. Poorly trained security guard catches it from someone in quarantine (booty call allegedly). Then guards ignore advice and carpool to work. Then guards participate in large family gatherings in excess of allowed limits. This spreads to two extended family groups and to a school many attend, then to food processing and fast food places and off we go.

 

[Adisa]

I think have become desensitised to how horrible the US numbers are. The last time I checked, just over a week ago, it was 140,000. Now its 154,000. 14,000 dead in a week. Any other democratically elected government would have been forced to resign.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Not 100% but very likely. Serology strongly suggests a single source. Poorly trained security guard catches it from someone in quarantine (booty call allegedly). Then guards ignore advice and carpool to work. Then guards participate in large family gatherings in excess of allowed limits. This spreads to two extended family groups and to a school many attend, then to food processing and fast food places and off we go.

What’s your source on this? You keep repeating it as very likely yet everywhere I try to find information on this, all I can see is that a single super-spreader is “one of many possibilities for many of the cases in the current outbreak”.
And the booty call element, where on Earth is this backed up anywhere? Sounds like a tabloid dream.

Feels worse than “junk science” to claim right now that a single booty call has caused this.

 

[hmchan]

Not 100% but very likely. Serology strongly suggests a single source. Poorly trained security guard catches it from someone in quarantine (booty call allegedly). Then guards ignore advice and carpool to work. Then guards participate in large family gatherings in excess of allowed limits. This spreads to two extended family groups and to a school many attend, then to food processing and fast food places and off we go.

How is serology telling you the source of the outbreak? The only way to confirm that is by sequencing.

 

[711]

I'm more bothered about 'booty call'. Whatever language it is it's just ugly.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

I'm more bothered about 'booty call'. Whatever language it is it's just ugly.

True. Very wrong.

Everyone knows it is spelt bootaaaayyyy call.

 

[golden_blunder]

I'm more bothered about 'booty call'. Whatever language it is it's just ugly.

Huh? Would you rather it’s called “sex request call”?

 

[Stack]

Not 100% but very likely. Serology strongly suggests a single source. Poorly trained security guard catches it from someone in quarantine (booty call allegedly). Then guards ignore advice and carpool to work. Then guards participate in large family gatherings in excess of allowed limits. This spreads to two extended family groups and to a school many attend, then to food processing and fast food places and off we go.

Wibble i was under the impression another contributing factor was the high rise appartments blocks also hadnt limited numbers of lifts which added to the fast infection rate

 

[Wibble]

Wibble i was under the impression another contributing factor was the high rise appartments blocks also hadnt limited numbers of lifts which added to the fast infection rate

Yes - this time once out in the community it hit hard in places where living conditions were far more concentrated. In the initial stages earlier in the yeat it helped that it was predominantly brought in by relatively richer people returning from holidays overseas and who lived in far less densely populated living conditions.

Itvalso didn't help that the people who staff old people's homes and meat packing plants also tend to live in these neighborhoods more often. All factors compounded each other.

Add a small but significant proportion of people acting like dickheads and here we have stage 4 lockdown when we had almost eliminated. If the federal government hadn't pushed so hard for opening up we would have eliminated in 2/3 weeks more. Now the economy has to take a few more billions of a hit. Very annoying. We could have been in a AU/NZ travel/economic bubble by now.

 

[Wibble]

I'm more bothered about 'booty call'. Whatever language it is it's just ugly.

Why is that offensive? It wasn't a love story for the ages.

 

[sammsky1]

We have vaccines and treatments for everything else this dangerous. The world is going to get fecked with the current casual attitude, the upsurge has already started in many places and it is still summer.

Im not sure why some western countries are so scared to implement draconian rule, via military for a few months. UK had that opportunity in March, and I think it would have been accepted at the time. Boris seriously missed a trick there. It will need to happen if another lockdown is required, as apathy levels are now too high.

 

[711]

Why is that offensive? It wasn't a love story for the ages.

Just language, some you like some you don't. Not offensive though.

 

[Wibble]

How is serology telling you the source of the outbreak? The only way to confirm that is by sequencing.

Maybe that was what was actually being reported? Some reports did mention genomic sequencing rather than serology. In any case the medical authorities were fairly certain although open to other explanations. Reporting has been patchy as I suspect they are (quite rightly) trying to avoid discussing all the detail to avoid ethnic profiling.

 

[Stack]

Yes - this time once out in the community it hit hard in places where living conditions were far more concentrated. In the initial stages earlier in the yeat it helped that it was predominantly brought in by relatively richer people returning from holidays overseas and who lived in far less densely populated living conditions.

Itvalso didn't help that the people who staff old people's homes and meat packing plants also tend to live in these neighborhoods more often. All factors compounded each other.

Add a small but significant proportion of people acting like dickheads and here we have stage 4 lockdown when we had almost eliminated. If the federal government hadn't pushed so hard for opening up we would have eliminated in 2/3 weeks more. Now the economy has to take a few more billions of a hit. Very annoying. We could have been in a AU/NZ travel/economic bubble by now.

Good luck Wibble, we can get that bubble by Xmas with a bit of luck.

 

[Wibble]

Just language, some you like some you don't. Not offensive though.

Fair enough. Just irritating that all this could have been prevented if two idiots hadn't wanted a shag.

 

[Wibble]

Good luck Wibble, we can get that bubble by Xmas with a bit of luck.

Thanks. We only had 12 new infections in NSW today so if Vic can get it under control we may still be ok.

 

[711]

Fair enough. Just irritating that all this could have been prevented if two idiots hadn't wanted a shag.

I thought the same about Thatcher.

 

[Wibble]

What’s your source on this? You keep repeating it as very likely yet everywhere I try to find information on this, all I can see is that a single super-spreader is “one of many possibilities for many of the cases in the current outbreak”.
And the booty call element, where on Earth is this backed up anywhere? Sounds like a tabloid dream.

Feels worse than “junk science” to claim right now that a single booty call has caused this.

It is very likely what happened. They have backtracked a bit, probably to prevent targetting some of the ethnic/religious groups involved and because they won't have sequenced samples from everyone. And after the abuse of Brisbane's African community after the identities of the three women who lied to get back into Brisbane was leaked you can see why.

 

[Wibble]

I thought the same about Thatcher.

Yew - some mental images can't be unseen.

 

[Flying high]

Im not sure why some western countries are so scared to implement draconian rule, via military for a few months. UK had that opportunity in March, and I think it would have been accepted at the time. Boris seriously missed a trick there. It will need to happen if another lockdown is required, as apathy levels are now too high.

Exactly. And if this lockdown comes over christmas, then that could be the end for him as PM.

 

[MTF]

I think have become desensitised to how horrible the US numbers are. The last time I checked, just over a week ago, it was 140,000. Now its 154,000. 14,000 dead in a week. Any other democratically elected government would have been forced to resign.

I'm not at all defending Trump or what is by far the worst administration in my lifetime. But things need a bit of context around the numbers... around 54,000 is how many people die in the US any given week.

 

[MTF]

Im not sure why some western countries are so scared to implement draconian rule, via military for a few months. UK had that opportunity in March, and I think it would have been accepted at the time. Boris seriously missed a trick there. It will need to happen if another lockdown is required, as apathy levels are now too high.

My conception of a democracy does not involve implementing things against them population by force, even if the risk is death.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

My conception of a democracy does not involve implementing things against them population by force, even if the risk is death.

ditto.

And as you also mentioned, perspective is needed in all of this. In a “take your own responsibility” society in Sweden, 5700 people had died of Covid-19. The increased mortality is around 3500 deaths and dropping daily.
In this century both 2009 and 2000 were worse increased mortality years when the flu ran riot.

So yes, we should absolutely try slowing the spread and keeping the numbers low, but totalitarian state actions that will still leave you with a virus problem to fight afterwards aren’t a good solution. Australia going from so close to eradication to this should have taught people that lesson. As should Israel really.

 

[sammsky1]

My conception of a democracy does not involve implementing things against them population by force, even if the risk is death.

ditto.

Am assuming you are not closely related to the 45000 British dead, and are not in a vulnerable demographic so such conceptual statements are easy to type away. Lucky you.

 

[BootsyCollins]

Am assuming you are not closely related to the 45000 British dead, and are not in a vulnerable demographic so such conceptual statements are easy to type away. Lucky you.

Man, i am not saying who are right or wrong here, but thats fear to say.

Thats like them countering with " Am assuming you are not closely related to the millions of people who died fighting for their rights and freedom, or live in a. place where the state can jail or murder you for having the wrong opinion, so statements like this are easy to type away. Lucky you"

And thats not fear either.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Am assuming you are not closely related to the 45000 British dead, and are not in a vulnerable demographic so such conceptual statements are easy to type away. Lucky you.

My nan, my daughter’s gran and her great gran absolutely are in that demographic. Diabetes brother too in the family.
I’ve mentioned earlier that we “can” save millions of vulnerable lives every single year with your totalitarian wishes, why don’t you demand this every year?

 

[sammsky1]

Man, i am not saying who are right or wrong here, but thats fear to say.
Thats like them countering with " Am assuming you are not closely related to the millions of people who died fighting for their rights and freedom, or live in a. place where the state can jail or murder you for having the wrong opinion, so statements like this are easy to type away. Lucky you"
And thats not fear either.

My nan, my daighter’s gran and her great gran absolutely are. Diabetes brother too.
I’ve mentioned earlier that we “can” save millions of vulnerable lives every single year with your totalitarian wishes, why don’t you demand this every year?

Very sorry to learn about your covid19 losses. I've had several too.

I'm not suggesting military rule, nor endless military intervention: just simple enforcement of the law.
Countries that haven't properly implemented their temporary covid19 laws (Cummings et al) have invariably suffered the worst.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Countries that haven't properly implemented their temporary covid19 laws (Cummings et al) have invariably suffered the worst.

I think that’s harsh, Portugal did a “great job” of locking down, absolutely every bit as good as say Denmark. But Portugal had a different starting point.
Belgium also in that respect, and they have absolutely suffered the worst.
Denmark, Norway, Finland weren’t super harsh in their temp covid laws, but so far have have done great.
I think it’s more nuanced than some tend to think.
Sweden basically eradicated the Italy/Austria strain, and it was the UK and US strains that remained, that gives us some implication that UK was getting BIG early numbers even if they’d done a Belgium and shut up shop as soon as them.
France are also quite high on the effected list and they were full on man, they policed the shit out of it.

 

[Relevated]

Im not sure why some western countries are so scared to implement draconian rule, via military for a few months. UK had that opportunity in March, and I think it would have been accepted at the time. Boris seriously missed a trick there. It will need to happen if another lockdown is required, as apathy levels are now too high.

The risk of it has been seen before. Military comes out once, the citizens are forced against their wishes. This trend then continues into other matters and the military is called out more often.

 

[MTF]

Am assuming you are not closely related to the 45000 British dead, and are not in a vulnerable demographic so such conceptual statements are easy to type away. Lucky you.

My parents are a vulnerable demo. They're in their 70s, but otherwise in good health. Wouldn't normally be expecting either of them to go anytime soon... so Covid is exactly the sort of thing that could come in and change that scenario. So I am affected.

But death is a part of life, and it is a part of society. The day each of my parents goes will be the saddest of my life. And yet I know that it will come... so I do not ask the world to alter itself deeply to lower that risk. This isn't my point, my point is just to rebuke what you said.... I say this as a person who is also affected.

As I said, death is a part of society. Which is why on one level we count it in order to track if we're seeing increasing death or reducing death. As you can imagine, long term death trends in developed countries have largely been falling, and that is good. The death rate in many places hovers between 0.8% and 1.0%. But that still means that in a country with 330 million people like the US almost 3 million people die each year. And yet we are not alarmed by the number itself.

The worst of covid-19 in my opinion was around the late March/early April timeline for the European countries hit hard, and the US east coast. Death was occurring at between 2x-3x the normal rate. So basically if you go for an entire year like that in the US it would mean 6-9 million deaths.... not anywhere close to acceptable. So an aggressive public response to that seems entirely justified. But having navigated that difficult phase, in several countries the death rates has moved back to being very inline with the normal, in some cases even lower. Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

It obviously won't stay like that if everything goes back to normal, so vigilance is required. But there must be some balance between the protection of life itself x the protection of other aspects of life. I don't question the public health and medicine experts about the aspects of the virus and its potential for destruction. But let me then speak as a partial expert on something else: except for countries in the process of being defeated at war (like Germany 1918 or 1940s), I do not remember a more aggressive and more targeted reduction of economic activity in modern history. Society already underwent deep strain in so many places in the 1930s because of the Great Depression. In countries with weaker democracies it was a key ingredient in the fall of democracy itself.

I do not know if it is possible to get out of this situation easily. I worry that governments are not supporting affected sectors and workers enough, and yet I worry that the size of what support that is being given will be unbearable for the public finances of some countries. We already traditionally struggle as societies to manage the downfall of certain industries that occur over decades, usually leaving parts of the country those industries were concentrated in in bad shape for decades (think Detroit auto industry, UK coal mining). Yet right now we are going through the same thing on a wider base, at an accelerated pace. Forget shareholders/banks (even though that stuff still matters), but think of the fact that we have for years signaled to people that being a trained airline pilot, flight attendant, aircraft mechanic, dispatcher, etc was something that we needed in society so it was a path to an income. And now we're taking all those people that number millions around the world and saying that we don't need them anymore. They are now untrained labor in things that they have no expertise in doing. Multiply that across several other industries.

Part of this was inevitable. I know that people aren't taking flights just because the government won't let them go to certain places. The economy was bound to take a deep hit anyway. The economic argument just seems like I'm trying to protect money over people, but its not. Our economic organization is the means by which we make and allocate basic things like food and shelter. We can't reorganize it for a new reality in just a day or even a year. It affects life and death too. What's more, the argument about the economy came from dipshits who didn't understand that a big hit was coming anyway, and were (and still are) just trying to win the US election. They don't care about any of what I'm saying (I'm not sure they even understand it). But I'm trying to make a more thought out explanation of why it still matters.

This is a mess of a post so I'll just try and wrap it up by saying: in considering continuous measures to reduce the deaths by covid-19, it is still necessary in my opinion to balance the other costs of the actions. Death numbers will count into the tens of thousands anyway, because our societies already face death at that rate on a weekly/monthly basis (depending on the size of the population). But if you keep it in proportion (in my opinion best measure is excess deaths as a percentage) then you're also better able to balance it vs another proportion that is arguably a lesser impact but are affecting millions, and also has the long-term potential to cause death and destruction.

 

[hmchan]

ditto.

And as you also mentioned, perspective is needed in all of this. In a “take your own responsibility” society in Sweden, 5700 people had died of Covid-19. The increased mortality is around 3500 deaths and dropping daily.
In this century both 2009 and 2000 were worse increased mortality years when the flu ran riot.

So yes, we should absolutely try slowing the spread and keeping the numbers low, but totalitarian state actions that will still leave you with a virus problem to fight afterwards aren’t a good solution. Australia going from so close to eradication to this should have taught people that lesson. As should Israel really.

Ideally everyone in the society is self-disciplined and there should be no law restricting people's freedom. Unfortunately there are always some selfish lads or sociopaths who have no sense of responsibility and pose a threat to the society.

I'd love to take a democratic approach whenever possible, but the prerequisite is that people have to be well aware of the pros and cons of every possible option and they have sufficient understanding about the situation.

But from this pandemic, it seems to me many have little to no knowledge about biomedical science. They take every information they get, including those apparent fake news. I can't imagine letting these people decide the measures against the coronavirus.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

@MTF I didn’t think it was a mess of a post, summed up my own personal thoughts perfectly.

The economist are doing some excellent work on increased mortality and when you consider for example Sweden with an increased mortality now of around 5700 for 2020, it puts it into more perspective to know that Sweden had under mortality last year of approx 2500 and that so far this year, over 55,000 Swedes have lost their lives.
Stats in most countries, especially Europe since March show the trend of being “back to normal or lower mortality” as you mentioned, so no, totalitarian measures are not “acceptable” for me in such a position.

 

[MTF]

ditto.

And as you also mentioned, perspective is needed in all of this. In a “take your own responsibility” society in Sweden, 5700 people had died of Covid-19. The increased mortality is around 3500 deaths and dropping daily.
In this century both 2009 and 2000 were worse increased mortality years when the flu ran riot.

So yes, we should absolutely try slowing the spread and keeping the numbers low, but totalitarian state actions that will still leave you with a virus problem to fight afterwards aren’t a good solution. Australia going from so close to eradication to this should have taught people that lesson. As should Israel really.

Was looking at US mortality, and it actually has been steadily on the rise post 2009 low point. From 0.81% low in 2009 to 0.88% in 2019. That's almost 220,000 additional annual deaths. If I take half to assume it was a linear progression, over 10 years that means almost 1.1 million additional deaths. Raw death numbers are big if the population is large enough, and then also if you add the factor of time. If we're going to be dealing in death numbers in our discussions about society and its directions, then we should get used to what they look like.

Not to be cold.... this increase in the US sucks. Generally has been tied to an increase in opioid addiction particularly among older lower and middle class men. Life expectancy for them has actually been declining which is virtually unheard of in developed societies not at war.