SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[FireballXL5]

The fecking cheek of them.

They are shameless. aren't they?

 

[Tibs]

Reports that a 2 week lockdown is being suggested for October

Can't be too long before all hospitality/pubs is take out only, and gyms shut. One of the Govt Scientists did say there would have to be some sort of trade off for when schools (and Uni's) re-open...looks like it's not too far off

 

[Beans]

Probably that deaths are low BECAUSE of mask wearing. We have the same situation in the UK, where mask-wearing has been terrible.

I think the truth is different. It's partly due to viral loads being low (which itself is partly due to mask-wearing, but also just partly due to better social distancing in general) and partly due to a different demographic getting infected (mostly the young this time), and partly also due to simply a misunderstanding of how many true cases there really where before lockdown, and how many true cases there are now.

I wouldn't argue those factors you mentioned are part of it too, to be sure. There are even more factors.

 

[Beans]

MedCram is a YouTube channel run by a pulmonary carteologist who works in an ER in California. In one episode of his recent coronavirus updates he went over 3 outbreaks, one with some 3000 people infected in a prison system, one with some 400 people in a meat processing plant, and one in a homeless shelter with over 100 people. The percentage of asymptomatic infections among the infected were 96%, 95% and 88% respectively. Social distancing was obviously not the reason for this, they were forced to be in close spaces, but they were required to wear masks. The lower numbers in the homeless shelter probably show less mask discipline. Death rates have crashed everywhere, I think mask use is the main reason from following this channel and others.

 

[Berbaclass]

Reports that a 2 week lockdown is being suggested for October

Can't be too long before all hospitality/pubs is take out only, and gyms shut. One of the Govt Scientists did say there would have to be some sort of trade off for when schools (and Uni's) re-open...looks like it's not too far off

where have you seen that.

Edit - Found it on the FT

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

where have you seen that.

We are coming into a season where viruses usually win out overall, come October I can see the Government in absolute chaos as to what to do. Testing is fecked right now and its just going to get worse, we need to realise there is no solution to this and its simply a management exercise.

 

[Berbaclass]

We are coming into a season where viruses usually win out overall, come October I can see the Government in absolute chaos as to what to do. Testing is fecked right now and its just going to get worse, we need to realise there is no solution to this and its simply a management exercise.

I absolutely agree it should be done, I just have doubts over whether they actually will take the proper measures. They've been pretty much using half measures at every point so far.

 

[hobbers]

Should be easing back into restrictions now and trying to delay any second national lockdown as long as possible.

Because you just know if there's a lockdown in October, and then it opens up again in November... public mood + christmas + cold weather is going to create the perfect conditions for another lockdown almost immediately.

 

[Berbaclass]

Should be easing back into restrictions now and trying to delay any second national lockdown as long as possible.

Because you just know if there's a lockdown in October, and then it opens up again in November... public mood + christmas + cold weather is going to create the perfect conditions for another lockdown almost immediately.

Yeah, I feel like we're in the 'eye of the storm' at the moment. Like you say if we don't do things properly the shit will hit the fan in the next 8-12 weeks. Possibly sooner.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

I absolutely agree it should be done, I just have doubts over whether they actually will take the proper measures. They've been pretty much using half measures at every point so far.

They will plough on as long as they can and only accept the fact due to public demand, same as what happened around the first lock-down. They have been totally inept with this, Boris is clearly still suffering the effects of his infection, but simply wont admit it for obvious reasons.

 

[golden_blunder]

The fecking cheek of them.

Wow. They are desperate. Shocking management by U.K.

 

[Berbaclass]

They will plough on as long as they can and only accept the fact due to public demand, same as what happened around the first lock-down. They have been totally inept with this, Boris is clearly still suffering the effects of his infection, but simply wont admit it for obvious reasons.

That's one thing that really surprised me at this current juncture. Back in March the media/public we're absolutely crying out for us to follow other countries into lockdown but I see very little of that now.

It's been mooted a few times in the last 24-48 hours and the reaction I've seen has been pretty much split down the middle. It's either 'the best idea going forward' or 'an absolute joke'. No in-between.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

That's one thing that really surprised me at this current juncture. Back in March the media/public we're absolutely crying out for us to follow other countries into lockdown but I see very little of that now.

It's been mooted a few times in the last 24-48 hours and the reaction I've seen has been pretty much split down the middle. It's either 'the best idea going forward' or 'an absolute joke'. No in-between.

I agree, most people wont die from this virus its the old and people who are sick that will suffer. The initial lock-down was to help the NHS cope, not just with COVID patients but also remain open to deal with other sick patients e.g. cancer, transplant patients etc. Unfortunately we live in a selfish society and unless your affected in some way most people don't give a shit. I hate wearing a mask, I hate telling my kid she cant do certain things, I hate my life being changed but I do it cause IMO its the right thing to do, unfortunately some people cant find it in themselves to at least try.

 

[hmchan]

That’s interesting. The sick pay does seem like a big issue.

Kills me to say it - after previously arguing against this point - but I’m also wondering if there is something to this idea that coming out of lockdown causes a rebound? When society starts on a path from extreme lockdown heading back towards normality then there’s a huge risk of them getting ahead of themselves and over-shooting to end up closer to normal behaviour than they should.

There’s been a sort of collective madness here in recent weeks where we all think the virus has become much less dangerous than it was a few months ago. Restrictions are easing so we’ve obviously less to be worried about. Are Swedes still as wary of it now as they were in March?

This looks true to me, that's why I don't like the idea of separating the measures into stage 1 (lockdown) and stage 2 (follow up actions) which is mentioned in previous pages. Both stages are interconnected, what you do in stage 1 certainly affects the outcome of stage 2. You can't just say stage 1 works when the case number remains low in lockdown while stage 2 fails when the number climbs up again.

 

[hmchan]

I agree, most people wont die from this virus its the old and people who are sick that will suffer. The initial lock-down was to help the NHS cope, not just with COVID patients but also remain open to deal with other sick patients e.g. cancer, transplant patients etc. Unfortunately we live in a selfish society and unless your affected in some way most people don't give a shit. I hate wearing a mask, I hate telling my kid she cant do certain things, I hate my life being changed but I do it cause IMO its the right thing to do, unfortunately some people cant find it in themselves to at least try.

Just curious, is there a large proportion not trying?

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Just curious, is there a large proportion not trying?

No idea, certainty some seem not to give a shit, from what I have personally seen.

 

[Berbaclass]

Just curious, is there a large proportion not trying?

In my experience yes. Enough to make a big difference IMO.

 

[Berbaclass]

Most of the news outlets and papers running with the second lockdown story now.

 

[hmchan]

No idea, certainty some seem not to give a shit, from what I have personally seen.

In my experience yes. Enough to make a big difference IMO.

With such a poor compliance, I guess any measure proposed by the government will be doomed to fail.

 

[SambaBoy]

That's one thing that really surprised me at this current juncture. Back in March the media/public we're absolutely crying out for us to follow other countries into lockdown but I see very little of that now.

It's been mooted a few times in the last 24-48 hours and the reaction I've seen has been pretty much split down the middle. It's either 'the best idea going forward' or 'an absolute joke'. No in-between.

Yeah because the planned outcome of a lockdown is to help the health care system not become overwhelmed, and plan for the future. Make sure when there are spikes you are ready (efficient track and trace system, testing sites/kits, more PPE equipment etc).

Without knowing all the full details, it seems the lockdown was just put in place in the UK with the mindset 'Do this for a few months and then everything will be rosy'. Literally the cases have started to spike again and what have the UK got to show for the first lockdown, nothing has improved in terms of their ability to manage the virus. It's a clusterfeck.

 

[Andersonson]

" Italy’s mortality rate from the coronavirus is almost 10 per cent.
Spain’s mortality rate is almost 7 per cent, while in the United Kingdom, that number is 5 per cent.
In Norway’s neighbouring countries, Denmark and Sweden, the mortality rate due to the coronavirus is 2 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively.
All these figures are from the EU's Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

One recent hypothesis on the very high mortality of the coronavirus in Italy and Spain is that these countries have had major problems with antibiotic resistant bacteria.

The coronavirus paves the way for people to develop severe pneumonia and blood poisoning (sepsis) that cannot be treated with antibiotics. "

I found this very interesting. As of today 12600 have been confirmed, but the Norwegian institute of public health think the actual numbers could be has high as 70000. So far 266 has died. 95 % of the people who has died are over 60 years old.

None under the age of 39 has died of COVID-19.

 

[berbatrick]

" Italy’s mortality rate from the coronavirus is almost 10 per cent.
Spain’s mortality rate is almost 7 per cent, while in the United Kingdom, that number is 5 per cent.
In Norway’s neighbouring countries, Denmark and Sweden, the mortality rate due to the coronavirus is 2 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively.
All these figures are from the EU's Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

One recent hypothesis on the very high mortality of the coronavirus in Italy and Spain is that these countries have had major problems with antibiotic resistant bacteria.

The coronavirus paves the way for people to develop severe pneumonia and blood poisoning (sepsis) that cannot be treated with antibiotics. "

I found this very interesting. As of today 12600 have been confirmed, but the Norwegian institute of public health think the actual numbers could be has high as 70000. So far 266 has died. 95 % of the people who has died are over 60 years old.

None under the age of 39 has died of COVID-19.

India and in particular hospitals in Delhi are supposed to be the world's centre for many strains antibiotic resistant bacteria, but mortality in India as a proportion of cases is pretty low.

 

[Eugenius]

" Italy’s mortality rate from the coronavirus is almost 10 per cent.
Spain’s mortality rate is almost 7 per cent, while in the United Kingdom, that number is 5 per cent.
In Norway’s neighbouring countries, Denmark and Sweden, the mortality rate due to the coronavirus is 2 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively.
All these figures are from the EU's Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

One recent hypothesis on the very high mortality of the coronavirus in Italy and Spain is that these countries have had major problems with antibiotic resistant bacteria.

The coronavirus paves the way for people to develop severe pneumonia and blood poisoning (sepsis) that cannot be treated with antibiotics. "

I found this very interesting. As of today 12600 have been confirmed, but the Norwegian institute of public health think the actual numbers could be has high as 70000. So far 266 has died. 95 % of the people who has died are over 60 years old.

None under the age of 39 has died of COVID-19.

Mortality rates are skewed by lack of tests.

 

[finneh]

This looks true to me, that's why I don't like the idea of separating the measures into stage 1 (lockdown) and stage 2 (follow up actions) which is mentioned in previous pages. Both stages are interconnected, what you do in stage 1 certainly affects the outcome of stage 2. You can't just say stage 1 works when the case number remains low in lockdown while stage 2 fails when the number climbs up again.

Agreed. I think this is backed up by the overwhelmingly positive and compliant response to lockdown in the UK with our population surveyed as or of the most fearful of the virus in the world.

In that environment it's somewhat obvious that as soon as our masters tell us things are getting safer again there will be a collective sigh of relief with everyone returning not to a "new normal" but to their previous normal.

In truth I wouldn't be surprised if a key reason behind UK mask policy is to remind people that the virus is actually still around. Certainly in around July you'd be forgiven for thinking it had been cured (I went shopping the week before the mask policy and this was absolutely my experience).

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Lancashire following the North-East with further lockdowns tomorrow.

How many millions will that be now under these new lockdowns? Either the "rule of 6" works or it doesn't.

The rules are so illogical it is untrue. The virus can't spread in pubs before 10pm? For me they either take this virus seriously or not. At the moment the virus doesnt spread if you pay VAT, apparently.

Not allowing people to meet in open air in their own back gardens is ridiculous.

 

[esmufc07]

How many millions will that be now under these new lockdowns? Either the "rule of 6" works or it doesn't.

The rules are so illogical it is untrue. The virus can't spread in pubs before 10pm? For me they either take this virus seriously or not. At the moment the virus doesnt spread if you pay VAT, apparently.

Not allowing people to meet in open air in their own back gardens is ridiculous.

Whilst I agree with what you're saying, there's a balancing act between keeping people safe and not absolutely wrecking the economy. I don't envy those who have to make decisions (though this government seemingly make the wrong ones every day).

 

[Pogue Mahone]

How many millions will that be now under these new lockdowns? Either the "rule of 6" works or it doesn't.

The rules are so illogical it is untrue. The virus can't spread in pubs before 10pm? For me they either take this virus seriously or not. At the moment the virus doesnt spread if you pay VAT, apparently.

Not allowing people to meet in open air in their own back gardens is ridiculous.

The theory with closing pubs at 10pm is that it cuts back the total dailys hours that the British population stays in pubs. Which should, theoretically, have an impact at a national level. All these measures are about making small tweaks to the behaviour of every individual which will amount to significant changes overall when multiplied by millions and millions.

Of course, absolutely feck all will change if people don’t actually change their behaviours. And it also assumes that they were already compliant with the previous measures.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Agreed. I think this is backed up by the overwhelmingly positive and compliant response to lockdown in the UK with our population surveyed as or of the most fearful of the virus in the world.

In that environment it's somewhat obvious that as soon as our masters tell us things are getting safer again there will be a collective sigh of relief with everyone returning not to a "new normal" but to their previous normal.

In truth I wouldn't be surprised if a key reason behind UK mask policy is to remind people that the virus is actually still around. Certainly in around July you'd be forgiven for thinking it had been cured (I went shopping the week before the mask policy and this was absolutely my experience).

That’s been openly stated as one of the key benefits to mandatory mask wearing from day one.

 

[finneh]

That’s been openly stated as one of the key benefits to mandatory mask wearing from day one.

Cheers, I hadn't seen anything official on it but it makes absolute sense.

 

[redshaw]

" Italy’s mortality rate from the coronavirus is almost 10 per cent.
Spain’s mortality rate is almost 7 per cent, while in the United Kingdom, that number is 5 per cent.
In Norway’s neighbouring countries, Denmark and Sweden, the mortality rate due to the coronavirus is 2 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively.
All these figures are from the EU's Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

Spain did a blood test for anitbodies and found around 5% of the population had the virus, that's 2.4 million. You can't simply look at confirmed cases and deaths.

Spain are between 1-2%. That's the typical rate.

 

[Sarni]

Spain did a blood test for anitbodies and found around 5% of the population had the virus, that's 2.4 million. You can't simply look at confirmed cases and deaths.

Spain are between 1-2%. That's the typical rate.

Probably even lower than that. In Poland we are at about 3% of confirmed cases and tests have been lagging behind. Many people don’t even test themselves when they get symptoms these days, I am pretty sure if we go into any sort of second wave (well we didn’t even have first wave) it will be bad. Access to internet and false information is too easy, half of my Facebook wall is corona-conspiracy now.

 

[Drifter]

UK lock down again.

 

[Bosws87]

They have got a shock to the system if they think people are just gonna continue going to work but spending the rest of the time in complete lockdown.

 

[hmchan]

Whilst I agree with what you're saying, there's a balancing act between keeping people safe and not absolutely wrecking the economy. I don't envy those who have to make decisions (though this government seemingly make the wrong ones every day).

In Hong Kong we had a similar measure. Dine in was not allowed in restaurants after 6pm, and it was later loosened to 9pm and 10pm. Pubs, however, have been closed all day until recently.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I really think booze is a huge factor in all of this. Apparently Thailand banned all alcohol sales completely for two months and basically eradicated the virus.

 

[Habs]

They have got a shock to the system if they think people are just gonna continue going to work but spending the rest of the time in complete lockdown.

Why is that? That’s what I’ve had to do for the last 6 months or so

 

[Bosws87]

Why is that? That’s what I’ve had to do for the last 6 months or so

I don’t know if you have gathered yet a portion of the population no longer care and it’s not a small amount either and it’s only increasing. The battle is lost it’s about just about teetering on the edge until a vaccine now

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Whilst I agree with what you're saying, there's a balancing act between keeping people safe and not absolutely wrecking the economy. I don't envy those who have to make decisions (though this government seemingly make the wrong ones every day).

We are currently the worst effected in Euope for both economic downturn and Covid numbers. So they are fecking it up by every metric in the UK.

Ultimately, with the return of schools, there is going to be an inevitable spike. People should be encouraged to take away food not eat in at restauruants to help maintain the hospitality sector.

I'm sorry but people getting pissed in enclosed pubs facilitates spread of the virus. They should extend furlough for the most heavily impacted sectors.

Maybe they should even tax companies benefiting from the restrictions e.g. Amazon to help support other sectors of the economy during the crisis.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

The theory with closing pubs at 10pm is that it cuts back the total dailys hours that the British population stays in pubs. Which should, theoretically, have an impact at a national level. All these measures are about making small tweaks to the behaviour of every individual which will amount to significant changes overall when multiplied by millions and millions.

Of course, absolutely feck all will change if people don’t actually change their behaviours. And it also assumes that they were already compliant with the previous measures.

People can just start drinking and attend earlier. Reducing opening hours by 1 hour will have minimal impact, if any.

In my opinion our scientists are being bullied by the government into accepting compromises in the name of the economy which are ineffective at controlling the virus.

 

[redshaw]

Things looking bad in Madrid and will be facing restrictions soon

659 cases per 100k and double that in Madrid's most crowded areas, Spain average is 260, UK 59. ICU units have reached capacity in some areas, 400 of the 500 full and they're looking to expand to 900+ ICU. This is from the BBC and CDC data.