SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Wibble]

Not if you can pick it up in Manchester and ‘import’ it to Birmingham just as easily.

What are you talking about?

You were originally saying that quarantining people from overseas was pointless. So what two places within the UK with no barrier between them has to do with what you were trying to say is entirely unclear. If there were a hard border between Manchester and Birmingham my point would still hold.

If you restrict infections arriving from outside a hard border you have fewer infections within the border than you would if you allowed the infection in. How could it possibly be otherwise?

 

[decorativeed]

One of our neighbours got a large tattoo done. She was showing the pictures on her FB. No mask in sight, either for her or the person doing the tattoo. It probably took 4-5 hours for this tattoo. Indoors.

So if this is how the tattooist is doing his clients, good luck!

Seems like the exact same situation whenever I pass my local tattoo shop. Never anyone in there wearing a mask, and people use it as a social club by the looks of it. I've no idea who you're supposed to whistleblow to in these situations though. It's the same in most of the local barbers and hairdressers, they are just not taking it seriously.

If there was an obvious financial reason why they are ignoring the mitigation, I could see their point of view to some degree, as these businesses are going to have been struggling this year. But for the sake of a few quid spent on masks, they are willing to put the community at risk.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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Interesting summary of a cluster. Really brings home how incredibly reckless it is to not make any changes to your behaviour during a pandemic. Stuff like this makes me less sympathetic to the younger people who are having to rein in their social life.

If they had left it a few days between seeing these various groups of friends (or postponed socialising for a week after the weekend away) things could have turned out very differently, while still maintaining a healthy social life.

 

[acnumber9]

What are you talking about?

You were originally saying that quarantining people from overseas was pointless. So what two places within the UK with no barrier between them has to do with what you were trying to say is entirely unclear. If there were a hard border between Manchester and Birmingham my point would still hold.

If you restrict infections arriving from outside a hard border you have fewer infections within the border than you would if you allowed the infection in. How could it possibly be otherwise?

Maybe if you actually read it instead of bundling in with how right you always are you would understand. Quarantine from countries with a high prevalence of the virus makes sense if your own community transmission is low. If it’s exactly the same then you’re as likely to get it in the UK as you are in another country. That’s what I’ve said from the start if you would get off your high horse for one minute you may be able to see somebody else’s point.

It is otherwise because you’re not talking about something that has a finite resource. If there are 1000 infections in Manchester and 1000 infections in Madrid. Getting it in Manchester and bringing it to Birmingham is no different then getting it in Madrid and bringing it to Birmingham. I can go to Manchester without quarantining. My whole point is there’s no barrier here so community transmission is already rampant. Having a hard border and quarantining from places with similar rates will have next to no effect.

Now if it was 1000 cases in Manchester and 2000 in Madrid I would agree with what you’re saying. Which is what I said from the very start.

 

[golden_blunder]

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Interesting summary of a cluster. Really brings home how incredibly reckless it is to not make any changes to your behaviour during a pandemic. Stuff like this makes me less sympathetic to the younger people who are having to rein in their social life.

If they had left it a few days between seeing these various groups of friends (or postponed socialising for a week after the weekend away) things could have turned out very differently, while still maintaining a healthy social life.

This is the case in the link I posted to you last night. They even passed it on to every member on the table beside them in the restaurant and the restaurant staff. Madness

 

[golden_blunder]

Maybe if you actually read it instead of bundling in with how right you always are you would understand. Quarantine from countries with a high prevalence of the virus makes sense if your own community transmission is low. If it’s exactly the same then you’re as likely to get it in the UK as you are in another country. That’s what I’ve said from the start if you would get off your high horse for one minute you may be able to see somebody else’s point.

It is otherwise because you’re not talking about something that has a finite resource. If there are 1000 infections in Manchester and 1000 infections in Madrid. Getting it in Manchester and bringing it to Birmingham is no different then getting it in Madrid and bringing it to Birmingham. I can go to Manchester without quarantining. My whole point is there’s no barrier here so community transmission is already rampant. Having a hard border and quarantining from places with similar rates will have next to no effect.

Now if it was 1000 cases in Manchester and 2000 in Madrid I would agree with what you’re saying. Which is what I said from the very start.

Sorry I don’t agree with you. There’s many a case of people coming back from jollies, straight out to pubs etc and caused a super spreader event. Even from so called ‘safe’ areas. People are less likely to take care on their jollies.

we should never forget that it came into the country from people going on holidays in the first place. Uk is an island, they should have closed the borders at that point in my opinion.

 

[F-Red]

Maybe if you actually read it instead of bundling in with how right you always are you would understand. Quarantine from countries with a high prevalence of the virus makes sense if your own community transmission is low. If it’s exactly the same then you’re as likely to get it in the UK as you are in another country. That’s what I’ve said from the start if you would get off your high horse for one minute you may be able to see somebody else’s point.

It is otherwise because you’re not talking about something that has a finite resource. If there are 1000 infections in Manchester and 1000 infections in Madrid. Getting it in Manchester and bringing it to Birmingham is no different then getting it in Madrid and bringing it to Birmingham. I can go to Manchester without quarantining. My whole point is there’s no barrier here so community transmission is already rampant. Having a hard border and quarantining from places with similar rates will have next to no effect.

Now if it was 1000 cases in Manchester and 2000 in Madrid I would agree with what you’re saying. Which is what I said from the very start.

Your point would had validity and logic if we had an effective test and tracing system. As we don't, then quarantining is the only effective way (if we had complete compliance) to mitigate further spread. It's a wrong comparison to say that because the net countries have the same amount of infection then it's no different and therefore no quarantine should be needed. Just because it's here already, means it doesn't make sense to compound the infection rate by adding more to it.

For example, if we take Dorset as a LA with a low case count (8.2 per 100k of people), and someone comes back from Spain without quarantining. Has the virus, and then spreads. Dorset then have to try to contain an outbreak. Could be mitigated with an effective quarantine, or test and trace (with the theory of being able to trace contacts and then tell them to isolate), and has a chance of keeping the case rate low.

The quarantine logic is as more down to controlling local outbreaks, which if uncontrolled, lead into a snowball effect into other areas. This was the issue that was in Bolton and has caused a ripple effect into other areas of the North West (Liverpool, Halton, St Helens specifically).

 

[acnumber9]

Sorry I don’t agree with you. There’s many a case of people coming back from jollies, straight out to pubs etc and caused a super spreader event. Even from so called ‘safe’ areas. People are less likely to take care on their jollies.

we should never forget that it came into the country from people going on holidays in the first place. Uk is an island, they should have closed the borders at that point in my opinion.

I’m sure there is. There will be plenty of people just going to different places in the UK and spreading it too. Obviously it came from overseas initially which is why I believe we missed the boat on quarantining being overly effective.

 

[acnumber9]

Your point would had validity and logic if we had an effective test and tracing system. As we don't, then quarantining is the only effective way (if we had complete compliance) to mitigate further spread. It's a wrong comparison to say that because the net countries have the same amount of infection then it's no different and therefore no quarantine should be needed. Just because it's here already, means it doesn't make sense to compound the infection rate by adding more to it.

For example, if we take Dorset as a LA with a low case count (8.2 per 100k of people), and someone comes back from Spain without quarantining. Has the virus, and then spreads. Dorset then have to try to contain an outbreak. Could be mitigated with an effective quarantine, or test and trace (with the theory of being able to trace contacts and then tell them to isolate), and has a chance of keeping the case rate low.

The quarantine logic is as more down to controlling local outbreaks, which if uncontrolled, lead into a snowball effect into other areas. This was the issue that was in Bolton and has caused a ripple effect into other areas of the North West (Liverpool, Halton, St Helens specifically).

My point is that adding to it can be done just as easily by moving within the UK. Now an argument can be made to say people are less likely to move between cities in the UK than go abroad and come home. Which would be a fair point. But for it to be effective then you would need the same quarantining for leaving those hard hit areas in the UK.

Test and trace and compliance with it is our only hope really. And we’ve been a shambles at it. Quarantining people coming from Spain now is akin to trying the fix the Titanic with a plaster.

 

[SteveTheRed]

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Interesting summary of a cluster. Really brings home how incredibly reckless it is to not make any changes to your behaviour during a pandemic. Stuff like this makes me less sympathetic to the younger people who are having to rein in their social life.

If they had left it a few days between seeing these various groups of friends (or postponed socialising for a week after the weekend away) things could have turned out very differently, while still maintaining a healthy social life.

Wow, when you hear real life examples it's crazy how quick and easy it spreads.

You've got to be thinking they were feeling completely fine so this isn't from sneezing, coughing etc. just from regular contact or breathing.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

On the travel/quarantine thing, we also need to take into account that the act of travel carries its own risks, no matter where you travel to. Spending time in airports/on aeroplanes mingling with people from all over the world, including potentially people from countries with the very highest incidence on the planet. That’s very different to visiting different town in Britain with a similar incidence of covid.

Having said that, freedom of movement within the EU is so important that’s it not realistic/practical to go to the same extreme lengths as the likes of Aus/NZ. So once again this comes down to personal responsibility. Don’t travel unless you really need to and self-isolate when you return. Not a huge ask, right?

 

[acnumber9]

On the travel/quarantine thing, we also need to take into account that the act of travel carries its own risks, no matter where you travel to. Spending time in airports/on aeroplanes mingling with people from all over the world, including potentially people from countries with the very highest incidence on the planet. That’s very different to visiting different town in Britain with a similar incidence of covid.

Having said that, freedom of movement within the EU is so important that’s it not realistic/practical to go to the same extreme lengths as the likes of Aus/NZ. So once again this comes down to personal responsibility. Don’t travel unless you really need to and self-isolate when you return. Not a huge ask, right?

I don’t particularly disagree. I would have no interest in travelling currently for those reasons. But I don’t believe it’s currently the reason it’s gone rampant and I don’t think quarantining will be any more effective than asking anyone to isolate for two weeks would be.

 

[golden_blunder]

On the travel/quarantine thing, we also need to take into account that the act of travel carries its own risks, no matter where you travel to. Spending time in airports/on aeroplanes mingling with people from all over the world, including potentially people from countries with the very highest incidence on the planet. That’s very different to visiting different town in Britain with a similar incidence of covid.

Having said that, freedom of movement within the EU is so important that’s it not realistic/practical to go to the same extreme lengths as the likes of Aus/NZ. So once again this comes down to personal responsibility. Don’t travel unless you really need to and self-isolate when you return. Not a huge ask, right?

I’d love to see the figures how many people have travelled over the last few months for non-essential travel. It might not seem like a huge ask but many people just can’t help themselves.

 

[golden_blunder]

I don’t particularly disagree. I would have no interest in travelling currently for those reasons. But I don’t believe it’s currently the reason it’s gone rampant and I don’t think quarantining will be any more effective than asking anyone to isolate for two weeks would be.

I don’t disagree that it’s the only reason but part of a bigger picture. However look at that example from Ireland posted above by pogue, 1 couple went away for a few days and came back and infected 30 people. It spreads so easily just by being in someone’s company.

 

[F-Red]

My point is that adding to it can be done just as easily by moving within the UK. Now an argument can be made to say people are less likely to move between cities in the UK than go abroad and come home. Which would be a fair point. But for it to be effective then you would need the same quarantining for leaving those hard hit areas in the UK.

I can't see any logic to not having a quarantine because it's easier to move about within the UK. It's like saying that by pouring petrol onto a house fire will yield the same outcome of a house being on fire, however by not pouring petrol onto the situation gives a better chance of trying to put the fire out. It just makes sense by not adding more fuel to the fire by quarantining people returning from foreign travel.

Air travel has been identified as a particular hotspot for transmission, and Cardiff had a great example last month. Movement in the UK is not really done through an air pressurised cabin, so it's comparing apples with oranges.

Test and trace and compliance with it is our only hope really. And we’ve been a shambles at it. Quarantining people coming from Spain now is akin to trying the fix the Titanic with a plaster.

Agree that it's a shambles. We should be aware that to combat this virus prior to any vaccine, it'll need a multiple combinations of smaller actions to get it under control, quarantining being one of them.

 

[acnumber9]

I don’t disagree that it’s the only reason but part of a bigger picture. However look at that example from Ireland posted above by pogue, 1 couple went away for a few days and came back and infected 30 people. It spreads so easily just by being in someone’s company.

Where did they go away though? I looked and couldn’t see that information.

 

[acnumber9]

I can't see any logic to not having a quarantine because it's easier to move about within the UK. It's like saying that by pouring petrol onto a house fire will yield the same outcome of a house being on fire, however by not pouring petrol onto the situation gives a better chance of trying to put the fire out. It just makes sense by not adding more fuel to the fire by quarantining people returning from foreign travel.

Air travel has been identified as a particular hotspot for transmission, and Cardiff had a great example last month. Movement in the UK is not really done through an air pressurised cabin, so it's comparing apples with oranges.



Agree that it's a shambles. We should be aware that to combat this virus prior to any vaccine, it'll need a multiple combinations of smaller actions to get it under control, quarantining being one of them.

That analogy only works if there aren’t other sources of local fuel also being thrown on the fire. Zante was on the allowed list so these people weren’t even required to quarantine at the time. I’m not saying there’s no examples of people going abroad and then spreading the virus but we have just as many example of people not travelling abroad and spreading it. Ultimately, it’s going to spread if people are interacting. The two week quarantining will make minimal difference in my opinion. We missed our chance to be effective there.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Should people with covid be forced to wear nametags?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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[Wolverine]

This is kind of an interesting study of spread in India with large sample size tracking infection pathways of 575,071 exposed to 84,965 with confirmed cases
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672

Essentially saying that just over 70% of confirmed cases were not found to be directly responsible to infecting others. With 8% of infected individuals accounting for about 60% of new infections in others. Also said that kids were found to effective transmitters of the disease (point of contention before). Mentioned also kids and young adults more likely to catch it from people their own age.

Definitely points to super-spreaders but do wonder if there are any biological reasons for them spreading it so much (e.g. whether there is a particularly infectious phase of the disease they are in or whether they have a propensity for just spreading more for other reasons) or whether its certain behaviours. Not sure what practical applications are though from this study because beyond conjecture it would just be too difficult to elucidate the answers to question of what makes a super-spreader.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Strange that the South of England seems to be exempt from any local lockdowns. Government looking after their own as per.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Strange that the South of England seems to be exempt from any local lockdowns. Government looking after their own as per.

The south of england is well known to be more civilised than the hinterlands.

Joking obviously.

 

[jojojo]

Air travel has been identified as a particular hotspot for transmission, and Cardiff had a great example last month. Movement in the UK is not really done through an air pressurised cabin, so it's comparing apples with oranges.

That story would be more interesting if we knew if any of the other passengers actually caught it. Have you seen any kind of follow-up on them? In an ideal world they'd have been tested during their quarantine - though even that would only help if they could do it in a way that would exclude the "brought it back from Zante" ones.

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Interesting summary of a cluster. Really brings home how incredibly reckless it is to not make any changes to your behaviour during a pandemic. Stuff like this makes me less sympathetic to the younger people who are having to rein in their social life.

If they had left it a few days between seeing these various groups of friends (or postponed socialising for a week after the weekend away) things could have turned out very differently, while still maintaining a healthy social life.

As with that flight, I have the same kind of curiosity about this superspreader incident. I'd be fascinated to know if there are other factors in play - singing Happy Birthday, compulsive huggers, selfie enthusiasts or whatever. I guess I'm pondering my odds when sitting at a neighbouring table in a restaurant, or the next row of seats on a train.

 

[Abizzz]

That makes no sense. You are importing a case you wouldn't have otherwise had and that person will infect 3-6 others who will in turn infect 3-6 others. Make them quarantine and you won't import that case into the country. It is that simple.

But do you just not exist if you don't go abroad / come from abroad ? If the infection rate is the same in the source as the destination country it makes just as much sense to randomly quarantine someone who has traveled as it makes sense to pick someone of the street and randomly quarantining them. They might have it, they might spread it, just as much as someone who just traveled.

 

[Josep Dowling]

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Interesting summary of a cluster. Really brings home how incredibly reckless it is to not make any changes to your behaviour during a pandemic. Stuff like this makes me less sympathetic to the younger people who are having to rein in their social life.

If they had left it a few days between seeing these various groups of friends (or postponed socialising for a week after the weekend away) things could have turned out very differently, while still maintaining a healthy social life.

I wish people would stop blaming certain age groups. There are probably youngsters have parties somewhere. I know just as many middle aged people who don’t care about the rules. I see more elderly people who can’t put a mask over their nose properly. Everyone is responsible for their own behaviour. The media is creating this unnecessary divide to always blame someone, something or a group of people.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I wish people would stop blaming certain age groups. There are probably youngsters have parties somewhere. I know just as many middle aged people who don’t care about the rules. I see more elderly people who can’t put a mask over their nose properly. Everyone is responsible for their own behaviour. The media is creating this unnecessary divide to always blame someone, something or a group of people.

I’m actually guilty of assuming these people are young. Their age doesn’t get mentioned. They could be middle-aged. Reckless behaviour all round, anyway.

 

[MTF]

But do you just not exist if you don't go abroad / come from abroad ? If the infection rate is the same in the source as the destination country it makes just as much sense to randomly quarantine someone who has traveled as it makes sense to pick someone of the street and randomly quarantining them. They might have it, they might spread it, just as much as someone who just traveled.

People are still stuck on this mental model it seems, that only made sense in March and probably not even then. As if the virus is mainly something that comes "from the outside" and not something that is already strongly present in several societies.

 

[Smores]

But do you just not exist if you don't go abroad / come from abroad ? If the infection rate is the same in the source as the destination country it makes just as much sense to randomly quarantine someone who has traveled as it makes sense to pick someone of the street and randomly quarantining them. They might have it, they might spread it, just as much as someone who just traveled.

I get your point but that very much depends how much of a risk factor a flight is because it seems like it's much higher than any activity undertaken by the average person off the street.

Unfortunately there's not really been much debate of high risk activities that might require extra diligence. We make stuff permissible and that's that rather than saying fine do it but don't then do xyz.

 

[F-Red]

Strange that the South of England seems to be exempt from any local lockdowns. Government looking after their own as per.

No, it's not that strange when you look at the data. Cases are all concentrated in the North.

 

[F-Red]

That story would be more interesting if we knew if any of the other passengers actually caught it. Have you seen any kind of follow-up on them? In an ideal world they'd have been tested during their quarantine - though even that would only help if they could do it in a way that would exclude the "brought it back from Zante" ones.

No, sadly not seen any follow up. If we did it would probably highlight the inefficiencies in the tracing system most likely. I'd be curious to see how many stuck to quarantine as well.

 

[RedRover]

Strange that the South of England seems to be exempt from any local lockdowns. Government looking after their own as per.

I live in an area put under new rules today. It's interesting that for the first time in generations the Tory's won a few historically entrenched Labour seats but the "north south" divide issue is now being firmly pushed by local politicians. Middlesbrough's mayor has been particularly scathing stating it will "kill" jobs, and he's correct. I understand that rates of infection in my town are no more than in may places in the south, or certainly, weren't the last we heard.

I am aware that my local Council asked for these measures. Along with new measures comes significant extra funding. I am not suggesting for one moment that these two points are linked.

Small businesses in hospitality are shafted with this. The tap has been turned off and people will just have to starve.

 

[RedRover]

I live in an area put under new rules today. It's interesting that for the first time in generations the Tory's won a few historically entrenched Labour seats but the "north south" divide issue is now being firmly pushed by local politicians. Middlesbrough's mayor has been particularly scathing stating it will "kill" jobs, and he's correct. I understand that rates of infection in my town are no more than in may places in the south, or certainly, weren't the last we heard.

I am aware that my local Council actively asked for these measures. Along with new measures comes significant extra funding. I am not suggesting for one moment that these two points are linked.

Small businesses in hospitality are shafted with this. The tap has been turned off and people will just have to starve.

 

[Vidyoyo]

No, it's not that strange when you look at the data. Cases are all concentrated in the North.

You really have to wonder why regions typically assumed as being less affluent are highest on this list.

On the face of it, it kinda looks like the areas which have historically been shafted and caused resentment amongst the populace are more likely to lead to lack of compliance. This itself could be argued as being rooted in some decisions made by the Tory gubernments of the past few decades

Or maybe the South just has natural virus killing air...

 

[Pogue Mahone]

This is kind of an interesting study of spread in India with large sample size tracking infection pathways of 575,071 exposed to 84,965 with confirmed cases
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672

Essentially saying that just over 70% of confirmed cases were not found to be directly responsible to infecting others. With 8% of infected individuals accounting for about 60% of new infections in others. Also said that kids were found to effective transmitters of the disease (point of contention before). Mentioned also kids and young adults more likely to catch it from people their own age.

Definitely points to super-spreaders but do wonder if there are any biological reasons for them spreading it so much (e.g. whether there is a particularly infectious phase of the disease they are in or whether they have a propensity for just spreading more for other reasons) or whether its certain behaviours. Not sure what practical applications are though from this study because beyond conjecture it would just be too difficult to elucidate the answers to question of what makes a super-spreader.

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[Smores]

You really have to wonder why regions typically assumed as being less affluent are highest on this list.

On the face of it, it kinda looks like the areas which have historically been shafted and caused resentment amongst the populace are more likely to lead to lack of compliance. This itself could be argued as being rooted in some decisions made by the Tory gubernments of the past few decades

Or maybe the South just has natural virus killing air...

If you look at a Covid map of the UK you quickly see that it's the cities that make up most of the rise in cases.

Quite simply outside of London you don't have many proper cities down South. Everything is very spread out down here and sprawling cities aren't common.

 

[Vidyoyo]

If you look at a Covid map of the UK you quickly see that it's the cities that make up most of the rise in cases.

Quite simply outside of London you don't have many proper cities down South. Everything is very spread out down here and sprawling cities aren't common.

Fair, maybe that explains it too.

If cities are the issue. Let's get rid.

 

[F-Red]

You really have to wonder why regions typically assumed as being less affluent are highest on this list.

By that logic, why was London the hardest hit in the first wave?

On the face of it, it kinda looks like the areas which have historically been shafted and caused resentment amongst the populace are more likely to lead to lack of compliance. This itself could be argued as being rooted in some decisions made by the Tory gubernments of the past few decades

Or maybe the South just has natural virus killing air...

The virus doesn't discriminate based on voting history or preference.

 

[decorativeed]

I wish people would stop blaming certain age groups. There are probably youngsters have parties somewhere. I know just as many middle aged people who don’t care about the rules. I see more elderly people who can’t put a mask over their nose properly. Everyone is responsible for their own behaviour. The media is creating this unnecessary divide to always blame someone, something or a group of people.

Yeah, I agree with that. The unifying factors aren't age, but selfishness and stupidity.

 

[Abizzz]

People are still stuck on this mental model it seems, that only made sense in March and probably not even then. As if the virus is mainly something that comes "from the outside" and not something that is already strongly present in several societies.

Agree, it made sense right at the start of the pandemic and still does for countries that have a significantly lower infection rate, but for everyone else it's just additional hardship with no benefit.

I get your point but that very much depends how much of a risk factor a flight is because it seems like it's much higher than any activity undertaken by the average person off the street.

Unfortunately there's not really been much debate of high risk activities that might require extra diligence. We make stuff permissible and that's that rather than saying fine do it but don't then do xyz.

Also agree here, if flying itself is a major contributing factor in infections that in itself needs to be looked at. That's equally true for internal flights as it is for international ones though.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

You really have to wonder why regions typically assumed as being less affluent are highest on this list.

On the face of it, it kinda looks like the areas which have historically been shafted and caused resentment amongst the populace are more likely to lead to lack of compliance. This itself could be argued as being rooted in some decisions made by the Tory gubernments of the past few decades

Or maybe the South just has natural virus killing air...

If you look at a Covid map of the UK you quickly see that it's the cities that make up most of the rise in cases.

Quite simply outside of London you don't have many proper cities down South. Everything is very spread out down here and sprawling cities aren't common.

Gah. Can’t find the fecking tweet but I saw a Tweet this morning showing a British regional incidence map for covid beside a map for the 1918 flu pandemic. They looked almost identical.