SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Fluctuation0161

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Yes, on both counts.

What relevance does that have to what I've written?
Just in relation to your comment "some Brits who just put themselves/ the country down at seemingly almost any opportunity.".

I think the UK has massively underperformed so to put this down to some kind of self critical Brit syndrome is not accurate. Although I appreciate you were responding to another poster who had made that point, so my post was also a response to that!
 

acnumber9

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Your point was that quarantine made no difference if the country of origin had similar infection rates to the UK. Your original post is quoted below. I told you how it does make a difference.

You then tried to pretend that you were talking about two towns in the uk that don't have a border and thus quarantine isn't involved. So an irrelevant attempt to move the goalposts.

Now you are back to incorrectly thinking that the comparative infection rate determines if quarantine works. It always works but the infection rate in the source country just varies how many infections quarantine prevents from being imported.

Country A has a 10% infection rate, country B has a 20% infection rate. For the sake of argument lets also say the UK has 1000 people with active infections.

If 10 people from country A arrive without quarantine the UK will now have 1001 active cases and if those 10 were from country B there would now be 1002 active cases. With quarantine there would still only be 1000 active cases. Each new case infects multiple others who in turn infect multiple others. So it can make a huge difference.

Hard borders and quarantine are one of the basic measures that have been shown to work well if done well in many places so it is just silly to think otherwise.

I was not saying anything about what measures should or should not be taken but just pointing out that your post contained an utterly incorrect assertion.
I said it makes no difference when you can freely move around regions with a similar rate of infection as those countries.

I didn’t change any goalposts. I merely pointed out that if the infection rate is the same or similar you’re just as likely to get it by being out in a UK City as a Spanish one. Using an example to illustrate is not changing the goalposts.

The example you are using is with double the infection rate which is not what I said. Double the rate is not similar. You’re changing the goalposts, not me.
 
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Bosws87

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https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1001/1168767-covid-19-dublin-teenager/

It’s just a flu
If you’re young and healthy really you’ll be grand
Cherry picking, stats confirm it’s very very unlikely.

I could pull up articles from flu, norovirus, tripping over a curb that resulted in the same outcome.

We have to accept there is a small risk to living.

This doesn’t mean I’d encourage everyone to act normal just stop this approach of so many died today of this & that it’s a terrible mindset to live in
 

golden_blunder

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Cherry picking, stats confirm it’s very very unlikely.

I could pull up articles from flu, norovirus, tripping over a curb that resulted in the same outcome.

We have to accept there is a small risk to living.

This doesn’t mean I’d encourage everyone to act normal just stop this approach of so many died today of this & that it’s a terrible mindset to live in
Sorry but in ireland at least there is a lot of information on FB and Insta etc misinforming teenagers that there is absolutely no danger to them when that is not true at all. Just because they are not the group that’s in most danger does not mean that they should be misinformed and discount the dangers

And since since when has tripping over a curb resulted in 3 hospitalisations and ongoing major health issues?

also the kid is just appealing to others to socially distance and wear their masks because there is a danger. What’s wrong with that mindset? They can still live their life but with precaution
 

Bosws87

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Sorry but in ireland at least there is a lot of information on FB and Insta etc misinforming teenagers that there is absolutely no danger to them when that is not true at all. Just because they are not the group that’s in most danger does not mean that they should be misinformed and discount the dangers

And since since when has tripping over a curb resulted in 3 hospitalisations and ongoing major health issues?
it’s ended in death, which is worse.

we are all misinformed when did you last tell children you could die from the Flu or have serious complications.

until this whole thing kicked off if you told me 50k could die of a bad flu season I would of laughed at you.

nothing wrong with what the kid is saying I was picking up on your way of expressing it presenting as evidence that kids should be petrified that’s how it’s worded
 
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lynchie

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Your point was that quarantine made no difference if the country of origin had similar infection rates to the UK. Your original post is quoted below. I told you how it does make a difference.

You then tried to pretend that you were talking about two towns in the uk that don't have a border and thus quarantine isn't involved. So an irrelevant attempt to move the goalposts.

Now you are back to incorrectly thinking that the comparative infection rate determines if quarantine works. It always works but the infection rate in the source country just varies how many infections quarantine prevents from being imported.

Country A has a 10% infection rate, country B has a 20% infection rate. For the sake of argument lets also say the UK has 1000 people with active infections.

If 10 people from country A arrive without quarantine the UK will now have 1001 active cases and if those 10 were from country B there would now be 1002 active cases. With quarantine there would still only be 1000 active cases. Each new case infects multiple others who in turn infect multiple others. So it can make a huge difference.

Hard borders and quarantine are one of the basic measures that have been shown to work well if done well in many places so it is just silly to think otherwise.

I was not saying anything about what measures should or should not be taken but just pointing out that your post contained an utterly incorrect assertion.
I suppose the point would be that, if infection levels are the same in both countries, and there's fairly even numbers travelling each way, quarantining people coming from abroad is only as effective as randomly quarantining people within the country. We'd be unlikely to do the second of those because it would seem like a massive infringement on people's liberty, but we do do the first.
 

jojojo

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Balls. How about this?
I agree with a lot of that. I'll also throw in the idea that if you try to use restrictions that are not sustainable in the long term, then people will break the rules - and having broken them in a minor (or recoverable) way they may just keep upping the ante, and start ignoring them, or choose to lie, limiting the effectiveness of contact tracing (formal and informal).

It's part of the reason why I keep banging on about Manchester's local restrictions that have been in place since July, but we have seen the infection rate not just rise, but rise faster than elsewhere. I do think things like "the rule of 6" indoors would have been a more helpful, and sustainable guideline. Particularly if it emphasised that the idea is to limit the circle of people you meet in a week, not as a challenge to see how many you can meet in a weekend of pub crawling or a chain of family visits.

I'm seeing it happening in my own extended family. Some are still, more or less, shielding, but increasingly they are relying on non-working (or working from home) adult members of the family to minimise their risks so that they can create a kind of non-regulation support bubble because life does go on. Minor domestic tasks become urgent, technology fails, house moves still need to happen, and social contact is important - even if you're over 70 with a heart condition. That's against the local rules of course, but I really don't blame anyone for stretching the rules to something they can live with. I can't even blame one of the previously shielded ones for taking on babysitting duties for the grandkids, I just have to hope they're as careful as they can be, and as lucky as possible.

We need to reserve the shame/blame game for the right things. Incidentally I'd include catching a train after a positive test on that list, as no one around her was aware of the risk they were taking. I don't see a group of youngsters outside a pub in the same light, they do know the risks to/from each other (though I'm less forgiving if they are living with granny of course)
 

Pogue Mahone

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Another interesting publication that might help exolain why some people get far worse symptoms than others. Or at least suggest that genetics play a part.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3
Fascinating. I’ve even heard some ID consultants say that every patient they see with a severe infectious illness has some sort of genetic vulnerability.

The regional variations of this particular gene are interesting. And might go some way to explaining the differing outcomes for different ethnicities we’ve seen in the UK. Although the last time I mentioned the possibility of race determining disease outcomes because of genotypical differences, I got my head bitten off by wokecafe zealots.
 

Abizzz

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Internal restrictions of movement is another measure that helps. It is just easier to do at international borders or State borders if you have them.

Each measure aims to reduce infection. If you then make big gains or even elimination within a border you can then work on the next area and eventually join the areas up. This is what has happened in Australia. We are close to zero community infection nationwide except for Victoria who are down to about 15 daily cases.

State borders will soon open barring Victoria and soin after a travel bubble with NZ and some Pacific islands are possible. The principle also helps even if such low levels aren't the aim. It seriously helps flatten the curve as does mask wearing, social distancing etc
For Australia, and any other country this successful at fighting it, it makes sense. It's a lot easier if the country is a continent and / or has no land borders though. I live within 150 miles of 8 different borders. The consequences to daily life aren't the same if those borders are all shut down for the tiniest of benefits. Now if one of those 9 countries had 0 (or anywhere close) community infections it would make sense, but they don't, and unless one wants to employ draconian methods they won't ever become 0 again. I don't agree that it helps flattening the curve in the same way mask wearing or social distancing does, those two have direct benefits.
 

RedRover

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https://www.centreforcities.org/data/coronavirus-cases-uk-cities-large-towns/

Slough, Luton and Exeter are the only cities in the south with over 50 cases per 100k while Middlesborough is at nearly 80 cases per 100k. Leicester and Birmingham are the furthest south you get with more than Middlesborough and they've already faced local lockdowns. Add to that Middlesborough's spike is much sharper in the last week than any of the others above 75. Doesn't seem like you need to dig deep to find the truth there. Local councils are making shit decisions because they're in a shit situation.
All fair points.

The issue here is the lack of financial support for the businesses it will sink. My town has 120 per 100k (the limit of extra measures supposedly being 100, under the newly proposed system) in a population of 90k. One outbreak in a factory, for example, in a town the size ours and that puts you in the next bracket and you get whacked with new measures without any consultation. We have the same measures in place as Liverpool with 268 per 100k, just for comparison. And once you're in these measures, there seems to be no guided way out.

This will kill a lot of SME's, especially in the hospitality sector. That's more unemployed and a lack of business rates being paid locally. Nobody wins.

Lots of businesses have spent money becoming Covid compliant and are now being told that they can stay open, but the rules actually prevent them from trading successfully. The issue (we were told a few weeks ago when the rule of 6 was brought in) was transmission in a household setting which was driving the increase. Closing hospitality venues who are compliant and following rules isn't going to stop those who don't care from mixing in a house and nor is a fine of a few hundred quid, which they likely can't or won't pay anyway.

Incidentally, pre-Covid there was big news in my town about the literal handful of police officers we had on duty at any one time. How is this going to be enforced? I know that in Newcastle the police are spending their time phoning compliant restaurants and trying to catch them out (a client of mine who is in the trade told be this) and as such, I suspect they'll be targeting the low hanging fruit of checking venues rather than actually tackling the problem of illegal gatherings.

There is no easy answer. I recognise that increase in rates needs to be addressed. This however seems heavy handed unless financial support is provided to help out businesses (and other venues, local sports clubs etc. who are valuable to the community) are trying to trade on.
 

One Night Only

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All fair points.

The issue here is the lack of financial support for the businesses it will sink. My town has 120 per 100k (the limit of extra measures supposedly being 100, under the newly proposed system) in a population of 90k. One outbreak in a factory, for example, in a town the size ours and that puts you in the next bracket and you get whacked with new measures without any consultation. We have the same measures in place as Liverpool with 268 per 100k, just for comparison. And once you're in these measures, there seems to be no guided way out.

This will kill a lot of SME's, especially in the hospitality sector. That's more unemployed and a lack of business rates being paid locally. Nobody wins.

Lots of businesses have spent money becoming Covid compliant and are now being told that they can stay open, but the rules actually prevent them from trading successfully. The issue (we were told a few weeks ago when the rule of 6 was brought in) was transmission in a household setting which was driving the increase. Closing hospitality venues who are compliant and following rules isn't going to stop those who don't care from mixing in a house and nor is a fine of a few hundred quid, which they likely can't or won't pay anyway.

Incidentally, pre-Covid there was big news in my town about the literal handful of police officers we had on duty at any one time. How is this going to be enforced? I know that in Newcastle the police are spending their time phoning compliant restaurants and trying to catch them out (a client of mine who is in the trade told be this) and as such, I suspect they'll be targeting the low hanging fruit of checking venues rather than actually tackling the problem of illegal gatherings.

There is no easy answer. I recognise that increase in rates needs to be addressed. This however seems heavy handed unless financial support is provided to help out businesses (and other venues, local sports clubs etc. who are valuable to the community) are trying to trade on.
You a monkey hanger? Sounds exactly like the situation in Hartlepool.
 

sullydnl

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What's happening in NI then? That's a remarkably high number.
 

One Night Only

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Indeed I am. You too?
Indeed, complete shit show here, clowncil realised if they declare us in the lockdown they'd get extra money. Won't help anyone but line their own pockets imo. Few businesses will close, can't see anyone sticking to the rules anyway tbh.
 

Adamsk7

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UK figures - 66 deaths, 6,968 cases.
staying steady on cases, which can only be a good thing. I guess we won't know for another week or so whether we are getting a grip on it again. If we are, I don't think it will have anything to do with the "rule of six" or the 10pm pub close, more that it's back in the attention of the public (who should not need reminding but there ya go!) due to public addresses etc.

I firmly believe that other than the stuff we are now used to as our every day, at least twice weekly addresses, even from a moron like Boris, is one of our best defences. It's just one of those things people watch, even if its to have a moan about the government before dinner.
 

RedRover

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Indeed, complete shit show here, clowncil realised if they declare us in the lockdown they'd get extra money. Won't help anyone but line their own pockets imo. Few businesses will close, can't see anyone sticking to the rules anyway tbh.
Indeed. I understand the measures they asked for were a "halfway house" type of lockdown but they got more than they bargained for. Hopeless.
 

lynchie

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staying steady on cases, which can only be a good thing. I guess we won't know for another week or so whether we are getting a grip on it again. If we are, I don't think it will have anything to do with the "rule of six" or the 10pm pub close, more that it's back in the attention of the public (who should not need reminding but there ya go!) due to public addresses etc.

I firmly believe that other than the stuff we are now used to as our every day, at least twice weekly addresses, even from a moron like Boris, is one of our best defences. It's just one of those things people watch, even if its to have a moan about the government before dinner.
Cases in England seem to be levelling off, or maybe (maybe) dropping. Number today inflated by massive number in NI. Did NI have some big student outbreaks or something?
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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That’s it shift the blame onto the people. They’ve had long enough to sort out a proper testing and tracing process whilst people were in lockdown, they can’t expect people to live like that indefinitely.
 

arnie_ni

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Our rugby club finished our 2 week quarantine on wed. Had training last night, another positive test this morning and now another 2 week quarantine.

All games cancelled again.

4 weeks into the season, 4 games cancelled.

Amateur sport is fecked