I wonder if there are stats on single mother pregnancies. Presumably less dating has reduced that stat but it's a complete guess on my part.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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I wonder if there are stats on single mother pregnancies. Presumably less dating has reduced that stat but it's a complete guess on my part.
I think the bit you're probably missing is that Spanish Flu was in a time when science was a long way behind where it is now and it was difficult / slow to get news across counties never mind continents.
Covid has been kept in check precisely because of the rules in place and if they weren't there it could have killed a similar number to Spanish Flu. You can't really say "compare the mortality numbers to Spanish Flu" when the scenario is completely different and if anything it shows why lockdown and vaccines are important because look what happens when that wasn't possible to the extent of now.
Think it could be longer than 6 weeks , I was referred in August and still no appointment.
God yeah, all new arguments there.“BARELY DISCUSSED” my hole.
Blatant fishing. The worry is how many fries like Ronaldo's Mum it catches. In this day and age of intellectual advancements.
Maybe depressed and concerned people are less confident in the future...
I'm pretty sure that wartime birth rates were quite high.
I think you are right
US Birth rates
United Kingdom
In the United Kingdom the baby boom occurred in two waves. After a short first wave of the baby boom during the war and immediately after, peaking in 1946, the United Kingdom experienced a second wave during the 1960s, with a peak in births in 1964.
Ireland
The baby boom in Ireland began during the state of emergency which existed in the country during the Second World War.Laws on contraception were restrictive in Ireland and the baby boom was more prolonged in this country. Secular decline of fertility began only in the 1970s and particularly after the legalization of contraception in 1979. The marriage boom was even more prolonged and did not recede until the 1980s.
Western Europe
France and Austria experienced the strongest baby booms in Europe. In contrast to most other countries, the French and Austrian baby booms were driven primarily by an increase in marital fertility.In the French case, pronatalist policies were an important factor in this increase.[35] Weaker baby booms occurred in Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands
Southern Europe
Baby boom was absent or not very strong in Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain. There were however regional variations in Spain with a considerable baby boom occurring in such regions as Catalonia
Eastern Europe
There was a strong baby boom in Czechoslovakia, but it was weak or absent in Poland, Bulgaria, Russia, Estonia and Lithuania, partly as a result of the Soviet famine of 1946–47.
Nordic countries
The baby boom was very strong in Norway and Iceland, significant in Finland, moderate in Sweden and relatively weak in Denmark.[17]
Asia and Africa
Along with the developed countries of the West, many developing countries (among them Morocco, China and Turkey) also witnessed the baby boom.The baby boom in Mongolia, one of such developing countries, is probably explained by improvement in health and living standards related to the establishment of a socialist society.
Latin America
The baby boom also occurred in most Latin American countries (with the exception of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay). An increase in fertility was driven by a decrease in childlessness and, in most nations, by an increase in parity progression to second, third and fourth births. Its magnitude was largest in Costa Rica and Panama.
Source: wiki
Yes but he was fat and didn’t sleep enough, you idiot. It’s completely different for everyone else because they’re thin and get enough sleep.
There’s more than 2 million dead because of covid, I wouldn’t be so dismissive. World economies don’t make a habit of screening themselves for no reason.
Are people more or less unhealthy now? Obviously back then there was little in the way of sanitary practices but people weren't really bloated fatties and made of sterner stuff. Are we weaker now because we have caned antibiotics? Does modern medicine and sanitation allow the weaker to survive and propagate?
Isn't the estimation range for Spanish Flu insane though? you literally have people suggesting fatalities from ~20m-100m
People are far healthier now. A big part of the reason Spanish Flu's second wave was so deadly was because it first took hold in the malnourished and exhausted soldiers of World War 1.
Christ. I went down the rabbit hole of reading threads posted by other posters. Humanity really depresses me. Why does everything have to be related to governments conning people and conspiracy theories? When did the general public fall so far? Or has it always been like that and Twitter and FB just expose them more to a wider audience? It’s very depressing to see common sense is gone. One young girl was saying smugly that she doesn’t wear a mask to pick up her kid from school and that everyone else is sheep. She being congratulated for being a ‘hero’ and “on the right side of humanity”.
back in reality we’ve had a teacher hospitalised for weeks and now suffering with long covid, and a few other teachers had covid too. No doubt thanks to parents like her
Hmm, 181 deaths in the UK today compared to 242 last Thursday. A bit disappointing, I was hoping for a low hundred maybe even double digits. The downward trajectory could be naturally plateauing since we've reached low figures.
If you're looking for the (almost) full vaccine effect covering the full 70+ group, gives it another couple of weeks. Most of those dying now caught the virus in February.
Covid cases back up again today and with the return of schools it seems inevitable we're going to see an uptick as we reopen without having the numbers under control.
Literally 1.5million extra tests done in the last 3 days, and the 7-day average ticked up by 0.5%. The fact it's such a tiny increase should be reassuring (also suggests the false-positive rate of these LFTs is probably a bit less than the 1 in 1000 being bandied about)
Yeah, definitely. Plus, as @Grinner alludes to we’re comparing two very different populations, then and now. It’s a pointless comparison anyway. We know for a fact the absolute nightmare this poses for our health services every time society has eased off lockdowns over the last 12 months so anyone still spouting bollox along the lines of “it’s just flu” is either totally agenda driven, with no interest in understanding the reality of the situation, or dumb as a bag of rocks.
Is there any reason for these extra tests other than more people presenting with symptoms?
You need to lay off the drugs.
Every secondary school child and the families of every primary or secondary school child have been asked to take lateral flow tests twice a week. The secondary kids have been doing them in school this week.
EDIT: also to add, the Zoe app, which has been a reasonably good model on a nationwide level, doesn't show any increase in people experiencing symptoms. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
Are all schools testing? I know my daughter had one last friday before reopening on monday and another tuesday?
That’s interesting. Thanks. So we can (hopefully!) expect cases to go up but positivity rate to go down.
School kids are getting tested twice a week I think.
Yeah, fair enough, but I still think 6000 a day (which sounds low compared to the peak of the past few months, but is about the same as it was in September when people were talking about a second lockdown) and a plateauing is a huge concern given that we're not going to see the effect of re-opening for a few weeks followed by more mixing as other restrictions are relaxed.
On the other hand, we're still very locked down compared to September (more similar to the "circuit breaker" in November, when cases dropped while schools stayed open), we're carrying out around 4 times as many tests, so are more likely to catch outbreaks early, one third of the population has been vaccinated, and there's increasing evidence that the vaccines reduce transmission as well as disease.
This is based on the data up to 3rd March, so it will have dropped even further this week.
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Which are the key and crucial points of difference, but it's too much eggs in one basket for me. I hope your optimism is well placed, but I am worried about how stubborn the last 6000 or so cases are proving to be given there's some pretty horrible mutations out there.
What's happening in Brazil? Why is it so bad there? Surely they don't have the demographic issues that Europe and the US do? (Aging population etc)
Why is it so bad? Their president, Jair Bolsonaro, is downplaying the impact of the virus. Refusing to shut society as the collateral damage to the economy will be worse than the effects of the virus itself.
Ironically, similar to the line that @Ronaldo's Mum Eh? is rolling out in this thread currently. The results suggest it's not the way to progress.
Or they are just extremely selfish as they're very unlikely to need medical care (for Covid or any other disease/illness) due to their age.
Apart from the neglect and terrible handling from the government, there is a new mutation that some scientists there are warning the world about : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1
It seems to be more infectious, generate more viral load and also the vaccines propably will be less efficient against it. maybe also very so. Studies also estimate it to be 10-80% more deadly and it siginficantly neutralizes antibodies from previous infections.
To me it seems like we might need new vaccines if this gets spread around the globe, but more study will tell.
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Emergency approval doesn't imply a lack of safety testing. It just gets it to people faster when there is an emergency. Full approval will follow. Many countries who had less urgency have given full approval to one or more of the vaccines. I'm not sure why you would worry about animal testing, which if used at all would be in the very early stages of vaccine development. If phase 3 human trials are successful that is where safety if truly assessed.
Of course you can. If the diseases that exist in patches e.g. Yellow Fever, were more widespread then all countries would demand the vaccination. And many places such as Unis in the US and childcare and schools in many many countries demand that your kids are immunised to attend/enroll. It is no more an imposition or restriction of your freedom to encourage your citizens to vaccinate for the benefit of yourself and everyone else than it is to demand that you wear a seat belt or pay your taxes. In fact less so as it won't be compulsory.
Of course it is a choice. You just may not like what goes along with the alternatives but it is still a choice.
Fauci was being cautious as I would have been if in a position of power/authority. Many experts including Peter Doherty who knows more about these things than almost everyone else were far more confident and funnily enough they were correct.
No there isn't. Worrying about your notional freedom to endanger your own and other people's lives in a global pandemic, with millions dead and most economies hugely damaged is very odd. Hugely selfish and self-centered.
We know lots about it and mRNA vaccines started to be developed in the late 80's and there have been approved animal mRNA vaccines for many years. The reason these are the first mRNA vaccine for human use is precisely because safety has been taken so serious. Because they produce such a good immune response side effects (inconvenient ones like feeling like you have a bad cold, rather than actually dangerous ones) were initially quite severe and it has taken many years of work to reduce these and now we were at a point where we can use them on humans.
WTF are you on about? If you exclude the people it kills it doesn't kill many people? That makes no sense.
If covid wasn't so dangerous why would the entire world be taking it so seriously? Shits and giggles?
Utter bollocks. Lockdowns when done well are a great tool and allow you to open up. Look at Taiwan, NZ and Australia. people are getting their normal health checks, the economy has taken a much smaller hit than elsewhere and most of us are living an almost normal life. When the response has been incompetent like in the UK and US (and elsewhere) lockdowns have still been important because it would have been even worse without them. Hospital systems would have been utterly overwhelmed and the fatality rate would have skyrocketed even further.
This is not because of lockdowns. It is because of a) a pandemic and b) an incompetent response to that pandemic. And the best way out is vaccinate everyone as fast as possible. It makes no sense to bemoan the consequences of the pandemic and also moan about being encouraged to participate in the solution.
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Just to pick this up, the data for England helpfully has started to break down cases by type of test.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
If you just look at only PCR tests, the numbers continue to fall week on week. The last few days the number of LFT positives has increased from around 400 a day last week (before the mass schools testing) to around 1000 a day this week, and accounts for all of the apparent rise in cases. Also worth noting that the vast majority of these recent cases have not been confirmed by a follow-up PCR test so far.
This is essentially a good thing - we're finding a lot more of those potential asymptomatic cases early and isolating them, which should help to keep numbers dropping. It will almost certainly grab headlines about schools having to isolate classes and year groups. But at the moment the data doesn't suggest there is a plateauing or rise in like-for-like cases.
Is there a stat giving up to date info for number of LFT tests per day?
I think the false positive rate on those tests was reckoned to be around 1:1000 - we may be heading into the territory where that is becoming statistically significant. I'm particularly thinking of big schools where there are likely to be a bunch of false positives every weeks.
Better than missed cases but maybe there's some way of prioritising the PCR test kit so a kid can have one delivered the same day they get a +ve LFT result or something.
I don't know all the numbers line up exactly, but the moving average of PCR tests is around 280k, while the last 3 days have reported around 1.3-1.5 million tests total, so you're probably looking at around a million LFT tests each day. The false positive rate is a subject of debate - I think the manufacturers pinned it at around 0.3%, but someone from PHE said it was less than 0.1% in the real world. So you might expect around a thousand false positives a day if those numbers are right, but equally it might be a lot less than that.
EDIT: BBC news have a piece on it. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56349116
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@Pogue Mahone what do you make of cases increasing? Surely to so with schools reopening? I mean where the hell do we go from here now if a level 5 with open schools isn't lowering cases anymore?
7 day rolling average is what matters. Let’s not forget that Monday’s numbers (a week after youngest half of primary school + sixth year kids all went back to school) were the lowest in 2021. Plus the positivity rate has continued to fall.
However, if the last couple of days numbers is more than a blip then we’re in for some tough decisions in the next few weeks. Especially with all the rest of primary school plus fifth-year coming back on Monday.
I honestly don’t know where we go from here if cases kick off again. This variant is an absolute cnut to suppress. I’m clinging to the fact that I remember thinking we were stuck at 2000, then 1000 and now 500. With multiple blips along the way. The progress is happening. It’s just painfully slow.