SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Relevated]

Of course they're gonna be treated the way they have, its a killer disease. We can't hug em and welcome them with open arms. Its nothing personal.

 

[Shakesy]

I seriously don’t get this “after the way SA have been treated” narrative. What are countries supposed to do? Just say feck it - let it in!? Nobody on this forum moaned about the U.K. being stuck on everyone’s red list after Alpha was discovered - why this outcry now?

Sheesh. Close the borders. Stop the flights. Yes. But at least offer some assistance or support while you're at it.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

That would include the UK then. Most cases in Europe and a history of propagating new variants.

Anyway, can't help but feel we are overreacting to this new variant. It's not the first and it wont be the last, and we don't know if its actually that dangerous or not. The world can't keep shutting down every time it mutates.


In other news Scotland and Wales have proposed an 8 day quarantine for all arrivals, fine for them as nobody wants to go there anyway. England should rightly tell them to sod off.

The reaction is because of how precariously balanced everything is with the delta variant right now. The last thing any country in Europe needs right now is an accelerant to the current surge. I’m sure there would be a more measured response if the same thing happens again next summer.

 

[Anustart89]

I seriously don’t get this “after the way SA have been treated” narrative. What are countries supposed to do? Just say feck it - let it in!? Nobody on this forum moaned about the U.K. being stuck on everyone’s red list after Alpha was discovered - why this outcry now?

Why only SA though? The one in Belgium who had it had been to Egypt and Turkey, yet flights from there aren't being stopped.

The only thing this is going to lead to is that when we get a new variant that turns out to be more deadly, then nobody's going to want to report it out of fear of becoming a global pariah, and as such it'll be rampant before the scientific community gets wind of it.

By all means, close borders once a new variants pop up, but don't only to it to the country that reported it, do it to all the countries that have cases, otherwise it's just a (poor) PR exercise and not really bound to stop the variant coming in to the country, is it?

 

[Ferguson’s Hairdryer]

Bit harsh for the West to take vaccines off these countries, using them instead for their own boosters, and soon no doubt another round of boosters; and then punish these countries for ”not having a good handle on Covid”

That’s the uncomfortable debate. Countries, not just the west by the way, that can afford to buy them and also have the companies / governments that produce them shouldn’t really have to suffer. Yes helping poorer countries out would also help as the world being vaccinated reduces the likely hood of variants. But you can’t give away what you yourself have to purchase and forcing say Botswana government to spend x amount of gdp on vaccines and getting involved in trying to convince its population to get vaccinated is pretty colonialist and won’t go down well here or in those countries.

So really the only option is close borders to high risk unvaxxed countries. If we can do it or consider doing it to people within our countries no reason why we can’t do it to countries

 

[Mickeza]

Sheesh. Close the borders. Stop the flights. Yes. But at least offer some assistance or support while you're at it.

How do you know that isn’t happening? The SA Government are complaining about the closing of borders and asking for them to be reopened - not lack of support - unless I’ve missed something?

Why only SA though? The one in Belgium who had it had been to Egypt and Turkey, yet flights from there aren't being stopped.

Because it’s literally only been 4 days since this thing was discovered - and SA is the country that first found it due to cases rising dramatically out of nowhere? Slightly different to one person possibly picking it up in Belgium/Egypt or Turkey isn’t it? The fact it seems to already be in many countries is new information only discovered since testing began. They’ve now stated all arrivals have to quarantine regardless of where you’re travelling from. It’s an evolving situation obviously. No, it won’t stop it but even if it only buys an extra week to learn more then it absolutely is the right thing to do. Or we can look at the ridiculously steep exponential curve in SA likely to be of a new highly transmissible variant that could bypass the vaccines and think feck it - let’s do nothing - it’s going to get here anyway at some point so why bother.

 

[Garethw]

I seriously don’t get this “after the way SA have been treated” narrative. What are countries supposed to do? Just say feck it - let it in!? Nobody on this forum moaned about the U.K. being stuck on everyone’s red list after Alpha was discovered - why this outcry now?

100%. This new variant was first reported in South Africa and countries shut off access to and from there to stop it spreading. If it had been first reported in Argentina or Russia, the same action would have been taken. Why is this an issue? I just don’t understand it either.

 

[Ferguson’s Hairdryer]

100%. This new variant was first reported in South Africa and countries shut off access to and from there to stop it spreading. If it had been first reported in Argentina or Russia, the same action would have been taken. Why is this an issue? I just don’t understand it either.

It is ridiculous, but on that flip side if it was first reported in the USA would countries have been so quick to ban flights? And if it was reported first in the U.K. and the USA quickly banned flights there’d be some of us playing the “we’ve been wronged card”

 

[Pogue Mahone]

How do you know that isn’t happening? The SA Government are complaining about the closing of borders and asking for them to be reopened - not lack of support - unless I’ve missed something?

Because it’s literally only been 4 days since this thing was discovered - and SA is the country that first found it due to cases rising dramatically out of nowhere? Slightly different to one person possibly picking it up in Belgium/Egypt or Turkey isn’t it? The fact it seems to already be in many countries is new information only discovered since testing began. They’ve now stated all arrivals have to quarantine regardless of where you’re travelling from. It’s an evolving situation obviously. No, it won’t stop it but even if it only buys an extra week to learn more then it absolutely is the right thing to do. Or we can look at the ridiculously steep exponential curve in SA likely to be of a new highly transmissible variant that could bypass the vaccines and think feck it - let’s do nothing - it’s going to get here anyway at some point so why bother.

100%. This new variant was first reported in South Africa and countries shut off access to and from there to stop it spreading. If it had been first reported in Argentina or Russia, the same action would have been taken. Why is this an issue? I just don’t understand it either.

I do understand the concerns that other countries might be less willing to come forward as a result but really don’t think they have a choice. It would seem like madness to allow packed daily flights in and out of the epicentre of this new outbreak anyway.

 

[Brwned]

This is true, but there is also a case to be made that if we had more vaccines at the start then more would've been vaccinated. As time passes, more and more people are infecting others with their pseudo-science in SA. Also, our booster shot drive would've started by now if we had gotten it earlier.

Yeah I think it could’ve helped accelerate things but I’m not sure there’s much evidence to suggest it would’ve increased the total number vaccinated in the long run. When public distrust in authority is so low, for legitimate reasons, a huge public health initiative like this is always going to be an uphill task. Even with 2x as many people vaccinated, there would still be a strong possibility of another variant like this popping up.

So the idea that vaccine hoarding = new variant in South Africa is ridiculous from start to finish. They’re two entirely separate issues.

After how South Africa's been treated after blowing the whistle on Omicron, other countries would do well to put the lid on any new variant popping up in their region. Shameful behaviour from the rest of the world, to be honest. I mean, the Belgian case hadn't even been close to SA, yet they're the ones being singled out for blocked flights for daring to report data.

All the same things were said about the Kent variant last year. The WHO said there’s little evidence that closing borders is a net positive. The UK scientific community said countries shouldn’t be punished for being diligent in their sequencing. The politicians did their politicking.

It’s weird that people are acting as if this unusual and unfair given the situation is so similar. Yes it hurts economies when borders are closed, and yes the data on whether that’s a good choice is ambiguous. But it’s a foregone conclusion it’s going to happen given the political nature of these things, the governments have to show they’re taking hard but necessary actions to protect the public, public health comes first, etc etc.

 

[Ferguson’s Hairdryer]

Also just last week South Africa asked Johnson & Johnson to stop sending vaccines saying it had enough. The vaccination rate is really down to the government and people.
South Africa Asks J&J, Pfizer to Stop Sending Vaccines
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...j-j-pfizer-vaccine-delivery-delay-news24-says

 

[Brwned]

To be honest nobody cried when everyone called one of the previous one the Kent variant. All this fuss over this ‘South African variant’ seems a bit daft.

If the worst thing about it already is others using the incorrect name then that’s a plus

People did complain about it being called the Kent variant. Then they complained about it being called the India variant. It’s because of those complaints they switched to the neutral names of Alpha, Delta, etc.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

If the BBC are right then the rules for travel from Ireland to the UK are indeed unchanged - that is no tests or quarantine required.

"Everyone entering the UK (other than those coming from the Common Travel Area that covers the Channel Islands and Ireland) will have to take a PCR test by the end of the second full day after their arrival and self-isolate until they receive a negative result."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59453744

That could change of course.

Does this mean you're au fait with rules? After any advice.

Person in household tested positive by PCR Saturday so I went for PCR and had negative result/ok today.

Kept completely separate since (one up, one down), I'm also double jabbed.

Live in Wales, I'm due to fly to Sweden tomorrow, know of any reason I can't? From Govt websites, I think I'm ok as suggests self isolation not needed due to double jabbed (never mind a negative PCR) but can't find anything definitive re overseas travel

@Deery .. as you in convo too

 

[djembatheking]

People did complain about it being called the Kent variant. Then they complained about it being called the India variant. It’s because of those complaints they switched to the neutral names of Alpha, Delta, etc.

Didn`t China complain in the beginning when Trump called it the China virus? Seems a long time ago .

 

[GloryHunter07]

SA don't care about it being called the "Southern African variant". We care about the reaction of the world after the reporting of the variant.

What do you expect the rest of the world to do?
Fairly sure the US blocked flights from the UK last year.

 

[Shakesy]

How do you know that isn’t happening? The SA Government are complaining about the closing of borders and asking for them to be reopened - not lack of support - unless I’ve missed something?

Because it’s literally only been 4 days since this thing was discovered - and SA is the country that first found it due to cases rising dramatically out of nowhere? Slightly different to one person possibly picking it up in Belgium/Egypt or Turkey isn’t it? The fact it seems to already be in many countries is new information only discovered since testing began. They’ve now stated all arrivals have to quarantine regardless of where you’re travelling from. It’s an evolving situation obviously. No, it won’t stop it but even if it only buys an extra week to learn more then it absolutely is the right thing to do. Or we can look at the ridiculously steep exponential curve in SA likely to be of a new highly transmissible variant that could bypass the vaccines and think feck it - let’s do nothing - it’s going to get here anyway at some point so why bother.

100%. This new variant was first reported in South Africa and countries shut off access to and from there to stop it spreading. If it had been first reported in Argentina or Russia, the same action would have been taken. Why is this an issue? I just don’t understand it either.

It is ridiculous, but on that flip side if it was first reported in the USA would countries have been so quick to ban flights? And if it was reported first in the U.K. and the USA quickly banned flights there’d be some of us playing the “we’ve been wronged card”

I do understand the concerns that other countries might be less willing to come forward as a result but really don’t think they have a choice. It would seem like madness to allow packed daily flights in and out of the epicentre of this new outbreak anyway.

Yeah I think it could’ve helped accelerate things but I’m not sure there’s much evidence to suggest it would’ve increased the total number vaccinated in the long run. When public distrust in authority is so low, for legitimate reasons, a huge public health initiative like this is always going to be an uphill task. Even with 2x as many people vaccinated, there would still be a strong possibility of another variant like this popping up.

So the idea that vaccine hoarding = new variant in South Africa is ridiculous from start to finish. They’re two entirely separate issues.



All the same things were said about the Kent variant last year. The WHO said there’s little evidence that closing borders is a net positive. The UK scientific community said countries shouldn’t be punished for being diligent in their sequencing. The politicians did their politicking.

It’s weird that people are acting as if this unusual and unfair given the situation is so similar. Yes it hurts economies when borders are closed, and yes the data on whether that’s a good choice is ambiguous. But it’s a foregone conclusion it’s going to happen given the political nature of these things, the governments have to show they’re taking hard but necessary actions to protect the public, public health comes first, etc etc.

Also just last week South Africa asked Johnson & Johnson to stop sending vaccines saying it had enough. The vaccination rate is really down to the government and people.
South Africa Asks J&J, Pfizer to Stop Sending Vaccines
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...j-j-pfizer-vaccine-delivery-delay-news24-says

CNN reported that SA is unhappy because flights were banned without offering any support. In our country the prez said it's some kind of Afrocentric racism. The latter is just ridiculous.

But, SA is feeling very vulnerable at the moment, which is completely understandable. Some wish we never reported the virus to the WHO. This is also madness, obviously, but I don't blame these people for feeling that way. We have been ostracized, and rightly so. But, you know - a little "we will help you fight this, here are some ventilators, etc" would've gone a long way. Diplomacy has gone to shit. It's every country for itself. This, of course, comes on the back of the west hoarding vaccinations.

That wasn't so nice, was it? Nothing happens in a vacuum. To suddenly blame SA for overreacting is a bit trite.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

CNN reported that SA is unhappy because flights were banned without offering any support. In our country the prez said it's some kind of Afrocentric racism. The latter is just ridiculous.

I don't think it's racism, more that SA isn't that important economically to those countries so it's easier to pull up the drawbridge.

 

[adexkola]

SA don't care about it being called the "Southern African variant". We care about the reaction of the world after the reporting of the variant.

All blabber aside, will Cyril keep things at Level 1 until *checks calendar* January 10?

 

[Brwned]

CNN reported that SA is unhappy because flights were banned without offering any support. In our country the prez said it's some kind of Afrocentric racism. The latter is just ridiculous.

But, SA is feeling very vulnerable at the moment, which is completely understandable. Some wish we never reported the virus to the WHO. This is also madness, obviously, but I don't blame these people for feeling that way. We have been ostracized, and rightly so. But, you know - a little "we will help you fight this, here are some ventilators, etc" would've gone a long way. Diplomacy has gone to shit. It's every country for itself. This, of course, comes on the back of the west hoarding vaccinations.

That wasn't so nice, was it? Nothing happens in a vacuum. To suddenly blame SA for overreacting is a bit trite.

Should the countries who introduced an immediate travel ban on the UK after the Kent variant have offered them something to compensate for that?

 

[Shakesy]

I don't think it's racism, more that SA isn't that important economically to those countries so it's easier to pull up the drawbridge.

Yes, understood. SA isn't important to the world. But our economy is important to us.

 

[Jacko21]

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[Shakesy]

Should the countries who introduced an immediate travel ban on the UK after the Kent variant have offered them something to compensate for that?

The world didn't stop UK from getting vaccines now, did it?

 

[Shakesy]

All blabber aside, will Cyril keep things at Level 1 until *checks calendar* January 10?

I have no faith in our government

 

[adexkola]

I have no faith in our government

Sigh.

 

[esmufc07]

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HoW CoNvEniANt

 

[Brwned]

The world didn't stop UK from getting vaccines now, did it?

The world didn’t stop anyone from getting vaccines. They just agreed to let the distribution of vaccines be determined by the capitalist policies that the majority of countries, South Africa included, currently subscribe to. Which is what leads to countries like South Africa delaying the delivery of future doses, instead of sharing those surplus doses with nearby countries more in need. There’s a lot you can say about that but that’s obviously a separate discussion.

At the end of the day, South Africa is not suffering from a shortage of vaccines, and even if the full course of vaccines were handed out within the planned timeframe, there’s nothing to suggest that would have prevented the development of a new variant. So your argument amounts to nothing more than a misplaced tit for tat, rather than a sincere attempt to identify cause, effect and appropriate responses.

 

[Shakesy]

The world didn’t stop anyone from getting vaccines. They just agreed to let the distribution of vaccines be determined by the capitalist policies that the majority of countries, South Africa included, currently subscribe to. Which is what leads to countries like South Africa delaying the delivery of future doses, instead of sharing those surplus doses with nearby countries more in need. There’s a lot you can say about that but that’s obviously a separate discussion.

At the end of the day, South Africa is not suffering from a shortage of vaccines, and even if the full course of vaccines were handed out within the planned timeframe, there’s nothing to suggest that would have prevented the development of a new variant. So your argument amounts to nothing more than a misplaced tit for tat, rather than a sincere attempt to identify cause, effect and appropriate responses.

Let's see:
Has there been a history of racism? Yes
Has South Africa suffered because of it? Yes
As a result, do we have loads of dosh? No
Do vaccines cost money? Yes
Is SA trying to represent Africa as well as we can? Yes

Tell me, what is Africa's vaccination rate? Is it because we are all anti-vaxxers? Has the West hoarded vaccines?

Bloody hell, this isn't tit for tat. I'm not pro-Africa. Or anti-capitalism. I'm just saying Africa deserves an apology. Not from you buddy. From the world.

But, this we all know. And I'm not going to take on this role of fighting for Africa. I don't belong here anyway.

 

[Mickeza]

I do understand the concerns that other countries might be less willing to come forward as a result but really don’t think they have a choice. It would seem like madness to allow packed daily flights in and out of the epicentre of this new outbreak anyway.

I totally get those concerns but that’s why there needs to be support in data gathering etc when announced to incentivise. You’d hope SA is now getting access to lots of external resources and expertise which they wouldn’t have gotten had they kept quiet. Keeping it secret doesn’t do anyone any good.

Guardian reporting they think we could have hundreds of reported cases in the U.K. within days. What does give me hope is every article I read contains an expert saying we won’t know for definite until a few weeks but it could genuinely be milder. We’ve never had that with other variants I don’t think?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-advisers-brace-confirmed-omicron-covid-cases

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I totally get those concerns but that’s why there needs to be support in data gathering etc when announced to incentivise. You’d hope SA is now getting access to lots of external resources and expertise which they wouldn’t have gotten had they kept quiet. Keeping it secret doesn’t do anyone any good.

Guardian reporting they think we could have hundreds of reported cases in the U.K. within days. What does give me hope is every article I read contains an expert saying we won’t know for definite until a few weeks but it could genuinely be milder. We’ve never had that with other variants I don’t think?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-advisers-brace-confirmed-omicron-covid-cases

I’ve a horrible feeling that the less virulent scenario is a combination of South Africa having such a young population and wishful thinking. You never know though…

I heard a cool (and plausible) biological rationale for why a much more transmissible variant could be less dangerous. Vaccinations trigger lots of IgG but little or no IgA. So a variant that preferentially reproduces in the upper airways could avoid a lot of the immune response and would also be more transmissable (higher viral load in snot, sneezes, salivary droplets etc) but would relatively spare the lungs/kidneys/coagulation pathways etc so causes less of the damage that ends up hospitalising people.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Yeah I’ve just got up for the school run and it feels like Mike Tyson has battered me around the ring

The boxing ring, I hope

 

[Sparky_Hughes]

It is ridiculous, but on that flip side if it was first reported in the USA would countries have been so quick to ban flights? And if it was reported first in the U.K. and the USA quickly banned flights there’d be some of us playing the “we’ve been wronged card”

I feel we should do that anyway, not because of covid, just because.

 

[Drifter]

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More, more, more, Vaccinations.

 

[Deery]

Does this mean you're au fait with rules? After any advice.

Person in household tested positive by PCR Saturday so I went for PCR and had negative result/ok today.

Kept completely separate since (one up, one down), I'm also double jabbed.

Live in Wales, I'm due to fly to Sweden tomorrow, know of any reason I can't? From Govt websites, I think I'm ok as suggests self isolation not needed due to double jabbed (never mind a negative PCR) but can't find anything definitive re overseas travel

@Deery .. as you in convo too

You taking me to Sweden too? I’ll get the bags packed..

 

[golden_blunder]

The boxing ring, I hope

Ohhh you naughty boy

 

[Mickeza]

I’ve a horrible feeling that the less virulent scenario is a combination of South Africa having such a young population and wishful thinking. You never know though…

Sadly I think you’re right. Hospitalisations in Guateng which is the hotspot are going up:
135 7 day average three weeks ago to 535 now:

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z...ts/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

Wall Street Journal article saying this matches the rise in previous waves. Patients do appear to have less severe disease but an alarming number are under the age of 2 - however the data size is still small and too early to make any conclusions:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicro...izations-in-south-africa-hot-spot-11638185629

Bloomberg article saying similar about under 2s but also suggests vaccinations are protecting against severe disease:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-up-10-of-hospital-cases-in-omicron-epicenter

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Sadly I think you’re right. Hospitalisations in Guateng which is the hotspot are going up:
135 7 day average three weeks ago to 535 now:

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z...ts/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

Wall Street Journal article saying this matches the rise in previous waves. Patients do appear to have less severe disease but an alarming number are under the age of 2 - however the data size is still small and too early to make any conclusions:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicro...izations-in-south-africa-hot-spot-11638185629

There was always going to be a rise in hospitalisations associated with that sort of dramatic exponential growth. Even if the CFR for Omicron is a fraction of Delta’s.

Thinking about it, working out the denominator is going to be an absolute cnut. I think I read somewhere that the positivity rate is already >30%. So they’ll be missing an absolute shit-load of cases. With the UK announcing that all the recent restrictions will be released if omicron is less virulent than delta there’s some very tricky and very consequential calculations to be done over the next couple of weeks.

 

[Ferguson’s Hairdryer]

CNN reported that SA is unhappy because flights were banned without offering any support. In our country the prez said it's some kind of Afrocentric racism. The latter is just ridiculous.

But, SA is feeling very vulnerable at the moment, which is completely understandable. Some wish we never reported the virus to the WHO. This is also madness, obviously, but I don't blame these people for feeling that way. We have been ostracized, and rightly so. But, you know - a little "we will help you fight this, here are some ventilators, etc" would've gone a long way. Diplomacy has gone to shit. It's every country for itself. This, of course, comes on the back of the west hoarding vaccinations.

That wasn't so nice, was it? Nothing happens in a vacuum. To suddenly blame SA for overreacting is a bit trite.

I’ve posted the link already..just days before the new variant was confirmed South Africa asked J&J to stop sending vaccines as it had enough. It’s really not the job the U.K. to get the South African population to get vaccinated just like it’s not the job of Germany to get Americans to take up the vaccines.

in fact I’m certain if foreign countries started trying to encourage the citizens of other countries to get vaccinated we’d see complaints and an increase in conspiracy theories or talk about colonialism returning or the USA trying to play world police or Russia/China trying force its way onto others.

The only assistance western or wealthier nations can offer comes in the form of researching the new variant and that I’m sure they will do as it’s in our own interest.. but obviously it takes time. People have to accept that with every new outbreak there will be an element of each country first taking care of itself in the immediate uncertainty that follows

 

[The Cat]

So they are reducing the booster time down to 3 months - that bit I can understand.

What about if you have recently had covid though? Do you still wait the recommended 28 days before you can have the booster anyone know?

Might be too early to ask mind I get that.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

You taking me to Sweden too? I’ll get the bags packed..

It's been a nightmare just getting ME done (especially with the changes in tests for when I come back) never mind you too! Sorry. I'll take a pic of something for you.. male or female?

Been googling stuff all day, THINK I'm ok but will feel a lot better when on plane.

 

[Shakesy]

Sadly I think you’re right. Hospitalisations in Guateng which is the hotspot are going up:
135 7 day average three weeks ago to 535 now:

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z...ts/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

Wall Street Journal article saying this matches the rise in previous waves. Patients do appear to have less severe disease but an alarming number are under the age of 2 - however the data size is still small and too early to make any conclusions:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicro...izations-in-south-africa-hot-spot-11638185629

Bloomberg article saying similar about under 2s but also suggests vaccinations are protecting against severe disease:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-up-10-of-hospital-cases-in-omicron-epicenter

Under 2s?? Under 2-year-olds? That is feckin awful. I have two young kids...