SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

Shit if it's a low % vaccinated population right? Gauteng only has 38.78% of their population vaccinated according to their latest data, it's still a big unknown of it's impact on high % rate vaccinated nations.

Yeah. And we’re not going to know for a while what will happen in a vaccinated population. But it takes a fair bit of optimism to believe that vaccination provides significantly better protection than prior infection. When all available evidence (and logic based on how they work) has the level of protection as fairly similar, at best.

At this stage I’m just hoping that maybe it’s because the prior infection was very long ago in everyone getting reinfected. And everyone with more recent infection does have some level of protection. Feck it, though. We’ve come a long way from the early months of the pandemic when reinfection was so rare that each individual case got written up

 

[F-Red]

Yeah. And we’re not going to know for a while what will happen in a vaccinated population. But it takes a fair bit of optimism to believe that vaccination provides significantly better protection than prior infection. When all available evidence (and logic based on how they work) has the level of protection as fairly similar, at best.

At this stage I’m just hoping that maybe it’s because the prior infection was very long ago in everyone getting reinfected. And everyone with more recent infection does have some level of protection. Feck it, though. We’ve come a long way from the early months of the pandemic when reinfection was so rare that each individual case got written up

Yep, still some questions to be answered, however not all immunity is the same according to JB-M. Which is why that, plus the low vaccinated population as our only source of data, puts me still as a glass half full guy.

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[Pogue Mahone]

Yep, still some questions to be answered, however not all immunity is the same according to JB-M. Which is why that, plus the low vaccinated population as our only source of data, puts me still as a glass half full guy.

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I hope there’s something to what he’s saying. It goes over my head though. To my simple mind a vaccine which generates an immune response to the spike protein only will be more vulnerable to immune evasion by a vaccine with a heavily mutated spike protein like omicron (seems to be the most heavily mutated section). When you’re infected by the virus you have the potential to develop antibodies to all the other bits of the virus, other than the spike protein.

Anyhoo. Optimism is good. Thanks for sharing those tweets. Fingers crossed.

 

[Wibble]

But it takes a fair bit of optimism to believe that vaccination provides significantly better protection than prior infection. When all available evidence (and logic based on how they work) has the level of protection as fairly similar, at best.

Most vaccines provide a more consistent immune response than past infection.

This study found that mRNA vaccines are 5 times better at preventing hospitalisation from covid in comparison to past infections.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...rotect-better-than-infection-induced-immunity

 

[jojojo]

Looks like boosters may be really important, not just as a top-up but as a genuine third dose. The report from the "mix and match" booster clinical trial led to the UK selecting Pfizer and Moderna as boosters:

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I've not read it properly yet and the implications/interpretation of the technical stuff is way beyond my pay grade anyway. However I do know it says you get more antibodies, more varied antibodies and the T cells are really classy looking.

Or the press versions here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

And

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[Sparky Rhiwabon]

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Time for another “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme?

 

[golden_blunder]

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Time for another “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme?

Or a “Shut up Tories and give our head peace”?

 

[Shakesy]

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Vax-induced abs? Cool!

 

[WPMUFC]

Looks like boosters may be really important, not just as a top-up but as a genuine third dose. The report from the "mix and match" booster clinical trial led to the UK selecting Pfizer and Moderna as boosters:

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I've not read it properly yet and the implications/interpretation of the technical stuff is way beyond my pay grade anyway. However I do know it says you get more antibodies, more varied antibodies and the T cells are really classy looking.

Or the press versions here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59489988

And

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just had my booster this week.... 2x AZ and now 1x Pfizer. Only reaction to the mix was a killer sore arm and a strangle compulsion to install Windows 11 on all my PC's

But seriously, i help to look after my older mum after my dad passed away and my brother has had chronic asthma since 2 years old. As long as it's safe, i'll keep taking shots to protect them. Thankfully they also feel the same.

 

[jojojo]

just had my booster this week.... 2x AZ and now 1x Pfizer. Only reaction to the mix was a killer sore arm and a strangle compulsion to install Windows 11 on all my PC's

But seriously, i help to look after my older mum after my dad passed away and my Brother has had chronic asthma since 2 years old. As long as it's safe, i'll keep taking shots to protect them. Thankfully they also feel the same.

I was just about to go through the indignity of replying to my own post (by linking to a proper scientist doing a quick summary for cheats) however you've spared me that

You'll be pleased to hear that 2xAZ + Pfizer gives you (and your family) great protection.

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Enthusiasts should read the Twitter thread, it's a nice explainer.

 

[jojojo]

Just to say, on the booster issue generally - no one knows how this impacts Omicron as yet. The results from the trial are impressive though and suggest that the booster isn't just a top-up, it triggers an improved immune response - which is why the time of the JCVI about who needs it and when has changed quite so dramatically in the last few weeks.

The booster clinical trial, this time from the perspective of one of the clinician scientists who ran it.

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[Anustart89]

Nice read that. Going for my third jab in an hour!

 

[Dumbstar]

My booster is in six days, likely to be Pfizer as I've had 2 x AZ. I'm in the UK. If I'm offered another vax (eg Moderna) should I still take it or say no thanks and wait for the big P?

 

[Anustart89]

My booster is in six days, likely to be Pfizer as I've had 2 x AZ. I'm in the UK. If I'm offered another vax (eg Moderna) should I still take it or say no thanks and wait for the big P?

Take it!

 

[F-Red]

My booster is in six days, likely to be Pfizer as I've had 2 x AZ. I'm in the UK. If I'm offered another vax (eg Moderna) should I still take it or say no thanks and wait for the big P?

My booster was Moderna, personally I wouldn’t be too concerned as both seem to yield good results on first and second jabs.

 

[Bratt]

Just saw that WHO says there is no registered deaths tied to the omicron-virus.
Still early, I know, but together with the info that all who’s infected/propaply infected with it in Norway have mild symptoms only, that’s a cause for cautious optimism, right?

 

[Compton22]

Just saw that WHO says there is no registered deaths tied to the omicron-virus.
Still early, I know, but together with the info that all who’s infected/propaply infected with it in Norway have mild symptoms only, that’s a cause for cautious optimism, right?

How long was it before a death was registered with the first delta case by comparison?

 

[Skills]

Is this new omnicron variant an evolution of the original SA variant (beta?)

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Just to say, on the booster issue generally - no one knows how this impacts Omicron as yet. The results from the trial are impressive though and suggest that the booster isn't just a top-up, it triggers an improved immune response - which is why the time of the JCVI about who needs it and when has changed quite so dramatically in the last few weeks.

The booster clinical trial, this time from the perspective of one of the clinician scientists who ran it.

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Increasing evidence that Moderna dose is higher than necessary. If they could rush through a license for half dose booster that would be great news for vaccine availability all over the world.

 

[Balljy]

My booster is in six days, likely to be Pfizer as I've had 2 x AZ. I'm in the UK. If I'm offered another vax (eg Moderna) should I still take it or say no thanks and wait for the big P?

Either are fine. Moderna is statistically better in the trial which the UK boosters are based on, but there's no mention on whether that was a full dose or a half dose (which I believe is what is offered in the booster program). The half dose is due to it being effectively a double does of MRNA compared to Phizer.

Covid: Pfizer and Moderna jabs give best overall boost, UK trial finds - BBC News

 

[Shakesy]

Is this new omnicron variant an evolution of the original SA variant (beta?)

Very unlikely. The delta variant represents 99% of sequenced Covid-19 cases globally. So, I don't think beta still exists.

 

[Balljy]

Increasing evidence that Moderna dose is higher than necessary. If they could rush through a license for half dose booster that would be great news for vaccine availability all over the world.

I thought the UK booster program was a half dose of Moderna already? At least that's what the JCVI recommended when they proposed the booster program.

Update to JCVI advice on booster vaccination in adults, 15 November 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

 

[FireballXL5]

Had my Moderna booster yesterday. Had no reaction to my first two AZ jabs, but my shoulder and upper arm are quite painful now. Got a banging headache too. Hopefully this is as bad as it gets.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I thought the UK booster program was a half dose of Moderna already? At least that's what the JCVI recommended when they proposed the booster program.

Update to JCVI advice on booster vaccination in adults, 15 November 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

It’s not licensed as a half dose booster yet. When it is, that will free up a hell of a lot of doses all over the world. Not everyone is as comfortable using vaccine off-license as the UK has been.

 

[Balljy]

It’s not licensed as a half dose booster yet. When it is, that will free up a hell of a lot of doses all over the world. Not everyone is as comfortable using vaccine off-license as the UK has been.

Sorry, get you. I knew the UK were offering it in half doses so assumed it had been licenced for that!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Sorry, get you. I knew the UK were offering it in half doses so assumed it had been licenced for that!

The Uk have been playing fast and loose with licensing from day one, when they pushed out the gap for Pfizer/Moderna. To be fair, it’s all (mostly) evidence based and their decisions have (mostly) been vindicated with hindsight. In extremely litigious countries like the US they will be much more reluctant to stray from the license.

 

[jojojo]

It’s not licensed as a half dose booster yet. When it is, that will free up a hell of a lot of doses all over the world. Not everyone is as comfortable using vaccine off-license as the UK has been.

It is Moderna's recommendation though. It's approved in the UK and now by the FDA at that level.

 

[Shakesy]

Population of 20 countries with most confirmed cases of Covid = 3.358 billion
Total cases of the 20 countries = 198 million
So, very roughly, about 17% of the global population have had confirmed Covid.
According to CDC 1 in 4 cases are being reported in the US. Let's say 1 in 5 globally.

Is it then fair to say that globally, about 85% have had Covid?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It is Moderna's recommendation though. It's approved in the UK and now by the FDA at that level.

Excellent.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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I still think/hope the news about paediatric admissions in South Africa is just erring on the side of caution but didn’t realise the age admission profile was so different to Delta. This is becoming a bit of a worry. Makes you wonder if vaccination in the very young might be on the cards at some point.

On the plus side, younger admissions to hospital are much more likely to have a full recovery. Interesting to see the elderly being admitted in lower numbers. Vaccination effect? Or something else?

EDIT: I’m probably fussing about nothing. The shape for younger ages is similar. Just absolute numbers much higher.

 

[massi83]

Population of 20 countries with most confirmed cases of Covid = 3.358 billion
Total cases of the 20 countries = 198 million
So, very roughly, about 17% of the global population have had confirmed Covid.
According to CDC 1 in 4 cases are being reported in the US. Let's say 1 in 5 globally.

Is it then fair to say that globally, about 85% have had Covid?

198/3358=5,9%

 

[Shakesy]

198/3358=5,9%

?

 

[massi83]

?

5,9% is not 17%

 

[Shakesy]

5,9% is not 17%

Ah! Cool! OK, so does that mean only about 30% have had Covid?

 

[massi83]

Ah! Cool! OK, so does that mean only about 30% have had Covid?

Hard to say. Could be in that neighbourhood. It isn't that important number anyway.

 

[Shakesy]

Hard to say. Could be in that neighbourhood. It isn't that important number anyway.

I'd like to know what the chances are of me having had Covid. I guess it's 30%. I thought it would've be higher.

 

[massi83]

I'd like to know what the chances are of me having had Covid. I guess it's 30%. I thought it would've be higher.

There will be huge variation on a NATION/NATIONAL/NATIONALLY/regional/difficult individual-level. SA should be well above the 30%.

Sorry it's the phone

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I'd like to know what the chances are of me having had Covid. I guess it's 30%. I thought it would've be higher.

I’m sure I read somewhere that serologys gives an estimate of 85% exposure in South Africa. So your incorrect calculation may have given a correct answer for you!

 

[Shakesy]

I’m sure I read somewhere that serologys gives an estimate of 85% exposure in South Africa. So your incorrect calculation may have given a correct answer for you!

That's how we do it in SA! Only, we don't usually get to the correct answer.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

That's how we do it in SA! Only, we don't usually get to the correct answer.

Actually, my recall is as bad as your maths. This paper gives 32% seroprevalence for “southern Africa” (<10% globally).