Suck up. You won’t be spared in the purge.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I’ve been follwing this guy since he lived in Japan.
Without joking I'd be slightly surprised if I've not caught it. I probably touched every part of that Istanbul airport and then my face.
First case in Africa (Egypt) reported today
1th death in Europe. An 80 year old Chinese tourist in France.
Why are people letting anyone from China into their country?
Cause logic.
Walking around those cities without all the people would be weird
In today's climate, it is basically impossible to ban someone from entering a country. I mean it is possible, but the Western countries won't enforce it for various reasons (political, ethical, economical...)
It would be the right thing to do, but the gates are open and this stuff will spread like crazy until we find something to combat it medically. Seems that is how it will go down.
Disappointed he didn't show his steak & guinness pie after so much talk about it.
I mean, of course you can. Now if you're a citizen or permanent resident you should be allowed in after passing medical tests or going through quarantine. Otherwise... there is no obligation for one country to let citizens of another country in that may pose a public health risk
There is no way a Western country will ban tourists from China. They can, but they won't
Some countries have shut their borders; Russia, the Philippines and others. Note that Russia is an ally of China, so that's not to say it's impossible for the west to do the same.
But really, the world doesn't know how it should be reacting.
The mortality rate of COVID-19 seems like it's around 2%. That is, 1,350 have reportedly died and there nearly 60,000 reported cases. That's 2.25%.
But then, what percentage of people with coronavirus will not show severe symptoms and not go to the hospital? One in two? Two in three? Nine in ten?
What is the true mortality rate of COVID-19?
Influenza - i.e. the seasonal Flu - has a mortality rate of around influenza kills 0.014%. Should we shut down the entire world economy every time someone gets sick with the flu?
To be clear, eradicating the flu would be fantastic. But as it is we keep going.
Any antidote to COVID-19 won't be available for another year. So if we shut down all links to China, when do we re-open them?
So far 1,350 have reportedly died from COVID-19. The number of swine-flu victims was finally in the hundreds of thousands.
Maybe we should all change the way we interact with strangers
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Good analysis robocop
When you put it like that it ain't shit. Good post.
The corona virus looks to be as contagious as the common flu. you missed a decimal on its mortality rate btw. It's 0.014%
The corona virus, assuming ~2% mortality is correct, is 150 times deadlier.
If it achieves the same kind of spread as the common flu with this mortality rate, we're talking Spanish flu proportions here. It would more than double the overall mortality rate of the general population.
It annoys me when people just compare number of fatalities as if that says anything about what this could turn into if not properly contained.
Do we know how many people have caught it yet with symptoms too minor to report? I would have thought if you lived in Wuhan you wouldn't go anywhere near a doctors or hospital unless you really had to. I suspect the mortality is actually nowhere near 2%, but I'll be happy to be corrected if there's any evidence otherwise.
Influenza that is being compared to has the same kind of underreporting problem.
Simply the reported numbers and proportions are exceedingly scary if scaled to global level. That there may be many more with trivial symptoms doesn't really change that. If anything, it means contagion is going to be even harder to contain.
To illustrate why underreporting of trivial symptoms doesn't make anything less dangerous.
If you have a population of 10.000 and 2000 are infected of which 40 died, the mortality rate is 2%, or 0.4% of the total population.
If it then turns out that actually another 2000 were also infected, they just weren't sick enough to bother with diagnosis, it doesn't exactly make the disease less deadly, still killed 0.4% of the total population, even if the adjusted mortality rate among the infected is 1%. It does mean that there are twice as many disease spreaders than previously assumed though, which bodes ill for containment.
If you have a population of 10.000 and 2000 are infected of which 40 died, the mortality rate is 2%, or 0.4% of the total population.
If it then turns out that actually another 2000 were also infected, they just weren't sick enough to bother with diagnosis, it doesn't exactly make the disease less deadly, still killed 0.4% of the total population, even if the adjusted mortality rate among the infected is 1%. It does mean that there are twice as many disease spreaders than previously assumed though, which bodes ill for containment.
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My instinct is to argue with that, but on reflection I can't, so thanks.
Relative to the exposed population though, not the infected one.
lets say that 20 million gets infected (in a population like china is not a crazy number. That means 400,000 that dies
My flatmate thinks there's absolutely nothing to worry about, that China is overreacting and even if it does spread here, only the elderly and people will pre-existing conditions will die, so it's not a big deal. "Far more people die from the flu every year" is what I keep on hearing, despite me saying that this new virus looks to be more than 100 times more deadly.
Your flatmate sounds like a dick.
There were 106 new deaths today which is significantly lower than the 200 we saw a few days back.
I've been keeping an eye on this dash...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Interesting that Japan are reporting that of those confirmed cases on the cruise ship, 70% were showing no symptoms. The US CDC also now saying they've confirmed asymptomatic transmission.
If that's the case it's probably already widespread and a lot of countries will be in the early stages of wider transmission.
I wonder how robust the NHS is on data analytics, it seems like Cameron cancelled a supercomputer project but surely they must have the ability to identify trends in spikes for respiratory illness at GPs? Even anti-biotics prescribed would be a decent indicator.
Quick google and found quite interesting RCGP does monitoring and weekly reports over 500 practices. Incidence levels seem well below 5 year average
If that's the case it's probably already widespread and a lot of countries will be in the early stages of wider transmission.
I wonder how robust the NHS is on data analytics, it seems like Cameron cancelled a supercomputer project but surely they must have the ability to identify trends in spikes for respiratory illness at GPs? Even anti-biotics prescribed would be a decent indicator.
Quick google and found quite interesting RCGP does monitoring and weekly reports over 500 practices. Incidence levels seem well below 5 year average
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Looking at how advanced countries are struggling, I hope this thing doesn't reach my homeland.
For those in the know please explain, how are hundreds of people on that ship getting infected while under quarantine?
For those in the know please explain, how are hundreds of people on that ship getting infected while under quarantine?
Centralized ventilation system.
I would take the deaths being reported in China with a grain of NaCl. In some weeks we will have a better understanding of the mortality rate of this disease on average, people at risk and among healthy people.
Air con at a guess? Cruise ships are notorious incubators of disease. They're always haveing outbreaks of stomach bugs etc....Thousands of people in close confinement, using the same air, eating from the same kitchen, swimming in the same pools etc...
How's that even a question? I was flabberghasted when I learned that they kept all these infected on board of those ships. Now it turns out this essentially created perfect breeding grounds for the virus, who would've thought....
Thanks.
It's still not thought to be an airborne virus.
Most likely there are just so many people and surfaces on board it's impossible to clean them all.
The virus has a 2 week incubation period. It's very possible that they were infected before being quarantined to their rooms.
They think it might be. Not confirmed, but would make sense given the number of people on the ship that got the virus. Unless the persons that makes the drinks is infected and spreads the disease.
This
My parents ended up on one of the ships with a norovirus outbreak and from what they described the staff very quickly implemented measures to stop the spread, even removing any handrails in communal areas. I can't imagine with the coronavirus that they took any risks.