SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

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They changed track when the Imperial study was released as that gave much worse outcomes but since then that model has been challenged as being far too negative by other experts.
Imperial study wasn’t even a published paper, it was far too negative according to everything I’ve heard.

As I say, blind leading the blind over there since that.
 

Buster15

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They changed track when the Imperial study was released as that gave much worse outcomes but since then that model has been challenged as being far too negative by other experts.

As far as I understand the key error they made was a belief that the British people wouldn’t accept a lockdown so they tried the use ‘nudge theory’ to gently persuade people to behave but that didn’t work.

I think the communication has been poor and Boris has been especially poor when going off message and waffling about ‘theories’. We’re also reaping the legacy of Cameron’s austerity on the NHS and other services. I do think that power is far too centralised in England too and that has hindered responsiveness to the crisis.
Indeed.
Your last point about centralised government, which is far worse recently, is one of the many differences between us and Germany.

And this is one of the reasons why Germany has dealt with the CV19 pendemic far better.
 

Hansa

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I saw a report that Norway just have a much more professional approach in their nursing homes, that Sweden are a long way behind Norway when it comes to treating our elderley.
Regarding nursing homes and their routines, I can't really shed any light on how this has been dealt with on a practical level, apart from quarantining staff left, right and centre, but I would guess they're definitely not covered from head to toe in PPE in either of the two countries. Both were ill-prepared in terms of shielding groups at risk.

However, I think it's not unreasonable to assume that given the same professionalism, nurses in a city with a higher percentage of infections will inevitably have a harder time keeping it away from their elderly. Oslo and its suburbs has a higher rate of infection per capita than the rest of the country, and that spills over into the nursing homes. In the Stockholm area, I guess there must be close to (or at least) 100.000 health care workers, and unless they just live their lives going between home and work (and nothing else) in their own cars, it's almost impossible not to have a fair percentage of carriers, many of whom may be asymptomatic. In essence, if Swedish nursing homes are hit harder than the Norwegian ones for the time being, it's really just a logical consequence of having more undiagnosed cases in the general population, and not a failure in an otherwise good tactic. These two go hand in hand, as we've seen in other countries.

Once we ease off here, allowing the virus to make a comeback without rigorous testing, more nursing homes are bound to be affected, unless every caregiver is dressed up like an astronaut.
 

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Ahhh, Red Cafe! My go-to news outlet. I love you guys!

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FootballHQ

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Italy's decline has been frustratingly slow.
Haven't seen too much on them in last few days compared to Spain slowly decreasing new infections.

I assume with Italy there is improvement in the worst hit northern regions but that is being balanced out by many new cases in the South?
 

FootballHQ

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Relaxing restrictions is not equivalent of ending lockdown. Full lockdown cannot last more than 2-3 months but partial lockdown has to stay much longer. Things like mass gatherings will not be allowed for a long time after full lockdown ends, for sure.
You'll more than likely be right I suspect. I certainly wouldn't want to go clubbing or be in a packed pub for quite a while and I suspect many in population are the same so it will be quite a while before those are lifted.

Just the way you orginally worded things and your default position seemed to be that people must be imprisoned in their homes for next 12 months so was a bit confusing. :lol:
 

4bars

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Haven't seen too much on them in last few days compared to Spain slowly decreasing new infections.

I assume with Italy there is improvement in the worst hit northern regions but that is being balanced out by many new cases in the South?
Lombardy is decreasing though not as fast as Spanish hardest hit


Comparing, I don't know how well spanish deaths are reported as it doesn't make much sense starting later then Italy, going higher than Italy and having more casing daily than Italy. Also double critical infected
 

Kentonio

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Ahhhh Bastard. No sleep it is then.

But wait... 2 dead in Sweden in my age bracket from 10,000 cases, likely many many more cases. Likely both with underlying conditions.

I’ll wait with the jab.
What about the person you come into contact with while contagious who wasn’t able to have the vaccine due to a compromised immune system or the like? You happy to gamble with their life too?
 
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What about the person you come into contact with while contagious who wasn’t able to have the vaccine due to a compromised immune system or the like? You happy to gamble with their life too?
I have all my vaccines, baby too, Sweden has 98% voluntary vaccination coverage, but that said, it’ll need to be bloody safe and tested one before it’s going near me or little one considering how low the death rate of this virus is likely to be in the end.
 
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Sarni

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You'll more than likely be right I suspect. I certainly wouldn't want to go clubbing or be in a packed pub for quite a while and I suspect many in population are the same so it will be quite a while before those are lifted.

Just the way you orginally worded things and your default position seemed to be that people must be imprisoned in their homes for next 12 months so was a bit confusing. :lol:
Lockdown is a bit of a loose term really. We were saying we were in lockdown once schools, bars, restaurants and shopping malls closed yet you were still allowed to have people over and you could walk or exercise as much as you wanted. Restrictions have become way more severe since and it’s still ‘lockdown’.

What really concerns me about where Poland is now is that we have been reporting less than 500 cases a day yet our health system is apparently so overwhelmed that doctors and nurses aren’t sleeping, there is no equipment and large percentage of those who have come in contact with patients got infected themselves. This is at about 20-40 cases per every large city in the country maximum. We aren’t that small of a country with north of 38 million people, if we get halfway to where Spain and Italy were at peak people will be dying on the streets because we don’t seem prepared at all. We went into lockdown very early which has slowed down spread of infection but once we open up again it may get much, much worse. That is why I think we should probably stay in lockdown much longer but we cannot afford it either. It’s really unenviable position, hope we pull through. I work for American company anyway and it seems our jobs will be safe for time being but I fear Polish economy will take a much harder hit than Western Europe.

Discussing this with my brother who’s anti-vaxxer is a bit weird too.
 

SteveJ

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For thousands of years, a parasite with no name lived happily among horseshoe bats
Bit harsh on Mitch.
 

do.ob

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But what exactly lies ahead, or when and how restrictions can be eased -these things are not up to politicians and experts alone. Rather, this will be determined by us all, by our patience and our discipline - especially now, when this is most challenging for us.
[...]
I believe we are at a fork in the road. Already now, in this crisis, it is clear that we have two options: Will it be every man and woman for him-and herself, with us elbowing our way through life, gathering what we can and making sure our own needs are met? Or will we keep up our newly found dedication to each other and to society?
[...]
No, this pandemic is not a war. It does not pit nations against nations, or soldiers against soldiers. Rather, it is a test of our humanity. It brings out the worst and the best in people. Let us show each other our best side!
[...]
And let us do so in Europe, as well. Germany cannot emerge from the crisis strong and healthy if our neighbours do not also become strong and healthy.
[...]
Solidarity, I know, is a lofty concept. But is not each and every one of us now experiencing, in a very personal and existential way, what solidarity means? My actions are essential for the survival of others. Let us hang on to that precious realisation.The solidarity that you are currently showing every day is what we will need even more of in the future.
Steinmeier did a TV speech today, first time he's done so outside of Christmas. I thought it was decent, especially in going beyond the war metaphors, so I put up a few parts of it. This is the script in English, if anyone is interested.
 

Wibble

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It just won't be obeyed. It's bad enough that we're getting summer weather at the beginning of April, not a cloud in the sky here today and I live 5 minutes from the beach. Very few walkers there so far today but try enforcing that throughout months of sunshine in June, July and August.

Not gonna happen.
Why wouldn't they as lives depend on it? Not like the UK is doing well now partly due to not locking down hard enough.

If people are that irresponsible then lots more will die unnecessarily.
 

Wednesday at Stoke

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Lockdown is supposed to be slowly lifted starting Tuesday in Denmark provided all things go well and the infections stay low. Tomorrow is also 18 C in forecast. :rolleyes:

It feels like the weather is constantly playing a joke with us.
 

sammsky1

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Just seen Priti Patel doing the daily update today so they've let here out of the basement she's been hiding in.

Reminds me of when Dougal did that mass in Father Ted. :lol:
Great idea to have someone accused of bullying launching a campaign against abuse...

You just have to laugh
Patel's apology was true to form.
Feckin hell, Priti Patel actually did the "sorry if you FEEL that..." non-apology. :lol:
She actually said that, I think might be illiterate.

Priti Patel is a disgrace on so many levels. Even her 'apology' was basically a passive aggressive bark at reporter to shut up. #Bully

The question I want answered is why didn't Government build UK manufacturing capacity for PPE (and place foreign orders) from mid January? Why only start panic buying from mid March??? These lost 6 weeks is a key reason why UK is getting battered by covid19.

Also, why dont reporters ever ask

2. Why didn't UK close borders to covid19 hot spot nations? And insist ALL incoming UK citizens complete monitored quarantine?
3. Why delay lockdown til mid march?
4. Why not use army for draconian implementation of lockdown?
5. Why wasn't a 'pandemic' previously war gamed, with established protocols already in place?

It's blatantly obvious UK Government is winging it, and making huge self inflicted errors because of 'the fog of war' due to lack of any planning whatsoever, some which could have started since 2nd January.
 
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Hal9000

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How are Sweden’s numbers so low, especially in the context of such a slow/minimal lockdown.
I had this debate with a facebook friend who is very much "this is all media hyper, why we locked down, look at Sweden"

Sweden has a population of 10.23 million in a land mass of 450,295 km² known cases is at 10,151 or 0.098% of the population.
The UK has a population of 66.65 million in a land mass of 242,495 km² known cases of 78,991 or 0.11% of the population.

So the numbers are not far from ours, despite them having a significantly less number of people within their population, spread out over a greater area. Sweden has a population density of 25 per km², the United Kingdom has 272 per km² and England has 430 per km²

You could probably argue that Sweden is, in fact, doing worst than most countries, considering when you take into account population density and their known cases within the population are equivalent to countries that are more densely populated.
 
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Wibble

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Priti Patel is a disgrace on so many levels. Even her 'apology' was basically a passive aggressive bark at reporter to shut up. #Bully

The question I want answered is why didn't Government build UK manufacturing capacity for PPE (and place foreign orders) from mid January? Why only start panic buying from mid March??? These lost 6 weeks is a key reason why UK is getting battered by covid19.

Also, why dont reporters ever ask

2. Why didn't UK close borders to covid19 hot spot nations? And insist ALL incoming UK citizens complete monitored quarantine?
3. Why delay lockdown til mid march?
4. Why not use army for draconian implementation of lockdown?
5. Why wasn't a 'pandemic' previously war gamed, with established protocols already in place?

It's blatantly obvious UK Government is winging it, and making huge self inflicted errors because of 'the fog of war' due to lack of any planning whatsoever, some which could have started since 2nd January.
Australia only had 110 new infections yesterday despite better testing than the UK. Only 56 dead so far despite a huge clusterfeck that allowed hundreds of infected people walk off a cruiseliner in central Sydney a few weeks ago.

People don't behave and they get big fines or arrested. Bondi Beach gets closed when people won't social distance.
 
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UnrelatedPsuedo

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You realise I’m a Manc right @UnrelatedPsuedo?

I think my home country gambled, they had a plan, probably a shit one for such a populated country, they panicked and now it looks like the blind leading the blind over there. They like France closed the barn doors long after the horse had bolted.

Sweden aren’t gambling, they have a clear plan and methods to implement it and the information overload we get daily is light years ahead of home. I feel a shit load safer here that’s for sure.
So far it’s showing.
I thought you were born there if I’m honest.

Sweden is gambling though. It’s a plan. They have methods. But they do seem more comfortable with losing More people than most Other countries.

I just think Sweden has picked a path that can’t be judged for several months. So why push back against any criticism (the same can also be said to anyone that criticises now).
 

giggs-beckham

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Ahhh, Red Cafe! My go-to news outlet. I love you guys!

How is it that most people who comment here seem so... Well... intelligent? Whenever I make the mistake of going on to Facebook I lose faith in humanity. Sorry to say, but most people on there are idiots. And Facebook is most people.

Somehow we got the perfect platform here. I came to the Caf for football, but I'm getting so much more out of it! Thanks!
This is my view to, it's like a hive mind and is the first place I go to also with obviously google cross referencing
 

FireballXL5

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With Johnson, Raab, Patel, Gove, Hancock, Mogg et al running the show, it can't come as a surprise that it's a complete shitshow.
If the political will was there to get the proper kit to NHS staff, it could be done in days. That should tell you something.
Add Brexit on top of this disaster.......Christ, this country is so fecked.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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I had this debate with a facebook friend who is very much "this is all media hyper, why we locked down, look at Sweden"

Sweden has a population of 10.23 million in a land mass of 450,295 km² known cases is at 10,151 or 0.098% of the population.
The UK has a population of 66.65 million in a land mass of 242,495 km² known cases of 78,991 or 0.11% of the population.

So the numbers are not far from ours, despite them having a significantly less number of people within their population, spread out over a greater area. Sweden has a population density of 25 per km², the United Kingdom has 272 per km² and England has 430 per km²

You could probably argue that Sweden is, in fact, doing worst than most countries, considering when you take into account population density and their known cases are equivalent to to countries that are more densely populated.
This kind of thing is why Sweden can afford to walk a different path.

50% Living alone
 

Dancfc

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What if that is what is needed? I suspect the world needs to lock down significantly for at least 6 months and then to at least some degree until we have a vaccine. Life won't return to normal for up to 3 or 4 years imo.
There won't be a world to come back too. Poverty would be at unprecedented levels.
 

sammsky1

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With Johnson, Raab, Patel, Gove, Hancock, Mogg et al running the show, it can't come as a surprise that it's a complete shitshow.
If the political will was there to get the proper kit to NHS staff, it could be done in days. That should tell you something.
Add Brexit on top of this disaster.......Christ, this country is so fecked.
its obvious that UK Government is suffering on several levels right now.

Firstly it's not the very best or experienced of the conservative party MPs, rather a crew of Brexit sycophants who will bow to Boris's every demand.
Secondly, it's a new team who had barely worked together before; many of whom have very little experience in ministerial roles or PM.
Thirdly, their election policy was basically "get Brexit done", so there is little substance of any of their policy platforms.
Lastly, their leader Boris, who put this team together, and without whom it can barely function is now AWOL for an unspecified time period.

All that during an unforeseen generational crisis.

I wish Boris had appointed a neutral advisory board of elders which included Cameron, Blair, previous/retired CEO's of NHS, multinational corporates, BBC, Army Field Marshall etc, put them all up in a hotel and ask them to advise his covid19 COBRA team. From my point of view, it would have been a signal of intelligence rather that a sign of weakness.
 
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Ish

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Ahhh, Red Cafe! My go-to news outlet. I love you guys!

How is it that most people who comment here seem so... Well... intelligent? Whenever I make the mistake of going on to Facebook I lose faith in humanity. Sorry to say, but most people on there are idiots. And Facebook is most people.

Somehow we got the perfect platform here. I came to the Caf for football, but I'm getting so much more out of it! Thanks!
Wait until football, and all its meltdowns are back. Youll change your mind :lol:

Anyway, I heard we might start to sell liquor by Friday next week ;)
 

Mr Pigeon

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Australia only had 110 new infections yesterday despite better testing than the UK. Only 56 dead so far despite a huge clusterfeck that allowed hundreds of infected people walk off a cruiseliner in centeal Sydney a few weeks ago.

People don't behave and they get big fines or arrested. Bondi Beach gets closed when people won't social distance.
I think someone is throwing Australia a bone after the wildfires. I hope anyway, don't want my dad to get sick. Or kangaroos because they're awesome.
 

Rado_N

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I had this debate with a facebook friend who is very much "this is all media hyper, why we locked down, look at Sweden"

Sweden has a population of 10.23 million in a land mass of 450,295 km² known cases is at 10,151 or 0.098% of the population.
The UK has a population of 66.65 million in a land mass of 242,495 km² known cases of 78,991 or 0.11% of the population.

So the numbers are not far from ours, despite them having a significantly less number of people within their population, spread out over a greater area. Sweden has a population density of 25 per km², the United Kingdom has 272 per km² and England has 430 per km²

You could probably argue that Sweden is, in fact, doing worst than most countries, considering when you take into account population density and their known cases are equivalent to to countries that are more densely populated.
How has RAB not replied to this yet?!
 

Alabaster Codify7

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There won't be a world to come back too. Poverty would be at unprecedented levels.
Yep. Which is why it will NEVER go that far. The planet Will say enough is enough and governments will open lockdown and go head on.....who dies,dies,sadly but the bulk survives and the world also
There's a disturbing group around here that think that history in 3050 will look back at this and see mankind sat in their living rooms and clapped for the NHS then died like crickets in their pyjamas.

They're sorely mistaken.