SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

nickm

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This is wrong. Studies have showed very low levels of antibodies, and also some people have no trace of antibodies whatsoever. We know far too little, but there are signs that immunity might last only for a short period of time. So say you get 80% of the poulation immune before end of july. Then already in july the first people to catch Covid-19 might already no longer be immune and get if for a second time.
Vaccination might be the only solution, if neither works, then this will be among us like a cold that sweeps through the population over and over again.
I’m not sure there is anything like enough reliable data to say how long immunity lasts for this virus just yet. It might be the few reported cases of relapse are due to error, or are within expected bounds. We don’t know yet.

Seems to me our best hope, before a vaccine is released ( and it sound like one will be, eventually ) is treatment options improve while health capacity continues to grow. Lots of work being done in that area, so some grounds for optimism.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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From Worldometer the world is sitting on plus-minus 1.8 million confirmed cases of which plus-minus 110000 have died and 410000 have recovered so looking at the amount that dies is around a 5th of the amount that recovers. So with plus-minus 1.3 million active cases out there that can go either way and based on the numbers that have had an outcome then plus minus a quarter of a million people are at risk of losing their lives.
It doesn't work like that.

Best estimate of mortality rate is 1% or a bit under I believe. Obviously more if you're older or less if you're younger.
 

Dante

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With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
Germany doesn't have a city like London or Paris.
 

Cardboard elk

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I’m not sure there is anything like enough reliable data to say how long immunity lasts for this virus just yet. It might be the few reported cases of relapse are due to error, or are within expected bounds. We don’t know yet.

Seems to me our best hope, before a vaccine is released ( and it sound like one will be, eventually ) is treatment options improve while health capacity continues to grow. Lots of work being done in that area, so some grounds for optimism.
Yes of course, lots to learn still!

However, I wasn't talking about the relapse numbers, but of the low levels of antibodies (and in some cases NO antibodies) found in younger person that were infected and had mild symptoms.
The older you were the more antibodies. All of this could mean that a) anti body tests might not work for everyone, and might not be the tool we hoped for. b) Some can get infected more than once and infect others due to not showing symptoms or having mild symptoms (since they might not be positive on antibody tests, nor require normal testing) All of this of course makes the disease even worse in several ways. Even for a vaccine, this MIGHT be bad news, it can effect how long a vaccine lasts and how many is needed to be efficient etc. WHO is looking at these things as well as other reasearchers around the globe. Hoping for good news. Seems like we will have to wait for months to get a better understanding though.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-ne...antibodies-in-patients-research-39115374.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...rus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
 

Camy89

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I'm very worried about having a vaccine that has taken a year to be fast tracked through trials. Some are even suggesting a vaccine in Autumn this year, not nearly enough time to study its effects surely?
A vaccine in autumn could well be catastrophic. You're right that human trials need significantly longer to assess side effects.

My fear is that, in order to save face, governments (in particular, America) will just throw cash at a fast-tracked vaccine to be first to announce it 'Look at me, we did it, we're the best!'. It'll be pushed through on a wave of money and the calls of concern from the scientists working on it will be drowned out.

I can also guarantee that if this is the route the US goes down, Trump will have some conflict of interest in it which has not been broadcast.
 

Foxbatt

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Just been watching CNN news and their reporter in china is saying authorities are actively blocking universities and research institutions from researching the origins of the virus. Very suspicious behaviour and worth seeing if the story develops further

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...AhAB&usg=AOvVaw23NQCcFQtY7l3NM7vIJw2y&ampcf=1

Editied to add link to uk article
I wouldn't believe 100% what anyone says these days. Damn if they did and damn if they didn't. Can you imagine the furor if the papers show something else and if the reality is another?
It will say Chinese hospital published false narrative of the virus. So in these things it's better to be double sure.
 

Ish

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First time I have actually respected Cyril he acted swiftly and with some backbone but come 3 weeks time he has to make a rather very difficult choice and even than world travel won't be happening, imports/exports won't be happening so unlock the lockdown with limitations but this country will still have a large number of increased unemployment numbers and this will not change until the world gets the confidence to move again or a vaccine has been found - its madness I tell madness crazy times.
Yeah man. As is common in life, the poorest of the poor will be hardest hit - either by the virus (which is why we’ve acted so “early and decisively” to try and protect them) or ironically, if not by the virus, they will also feel it economically if things don’t open up. Of course there’s also a much broader range and variety of people impacted. No denying that. But it’s a feck up, either way.
 

senorgregster

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I'm a vaccine advocate but any vaccine released in 2020, or 2021 for that matter, will have been rushed and I'd question the safety of it. Having said that, I have no better answer if this thing keeps reappearing.
 
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With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
Age, size of major cities, size of country, tourist cities, timing of tests, age of people tested, health service, timing of decisions.

Some of those they probably got better, some UK can't compare to.

We can make broad-brush assumptions but I don't think any like for like comparison can be 100%/very accurate
 

Volumiza

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But we need to think more pragmatically than just saying feck everything. What happens when you say feck everything and turn the lights out?
What we are seeing now is pragmatism. The most incredible piece of pragmatism I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. Closing down the economy virtually in the whole developed world is unreal. Unsustainable yes but at this moment in time almost every government across the northern hemisphere has done exactly the same. Worldwide pragmatism going on right in front of our eyes.

Nobody as far as I can see is saying feck everything and turn the lights out. When I say feck my job and feck the economy it doesn’t mean I’m saying feck them forever. I’m still going to work. I’m still doing my bit to keep my company from going under, keeping my family funded and doing my bit for the economy. I can’t do anymore.

When I say feck my job and feck the economy I am saying it in the context of waking up and wanting to know everyone I know and love is ok. Wanting to know my friends parents who have both been admitted to hospital with cv-19 are ok. Wanting to know my friend who is isolating off after being with his parents is ok. Wanting to know my elderly neighbours and aunties, who are all alone, are ok.

Humans and lives or £’s? £’s are important but there’s no comparison. And maybe there will be loss of life indirectly caused by lockdown but surely not as many as would would be lost by the alternative?

My job and the economy are way down on my current list of priorities. Of course if I lost my job we’d be up shit creek really quickly and I don’t know what I’d do in that situation but it is not something I’m worried about in comparison to my other worries. My Mrs has already lost her job.

This lockdown is unreal, economically destructive and can’t continue forever but everything will find a way. We have to. As a species we have to get through it but anyone thinking that things will bounce back to normal when this is over should think again. This is the time for change.

And as someone else pointed out, I’m not actually full of doom and gloom. There’s parts of all this that I really like. The sudden focus on friends and family and out close neighbours is brilliant. Some elements of the lockdown are refreshing.

I’ve barely spent a penny in 3 weeks and our life has been no worse for it. We’re being less picky over food and making do with what we have in.Roads are emptier. I feel less rushed and calmer in a way I’ve not felt for years. Me and my Mrs are talking so much more about important things and we feel much stronger. There’s things I want to carry with me beyond the lockdown.

So of course lockdown will have to be lifted at some point but some people need to have a bit of patience, we’ve got to tough it out for a while yet. Lifting it too early and we could be right up shit creek really quickly. No solution will save every job and every life.
 

Shakesy

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Here's a crazy idea - why don't we just stop the clocks for a year? No mortgages, no rent, no debit orders, no nothing! Then next year is 2020 again and we're all one year older in reality ;)
All affluent, like-minded individuals know this won't work.
 

Brwned

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More staggering unemployment figures are coming out of the United States.

Some 6.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. That takes the total number of claims in the last three weeks to more than 16 million - truly unprecedented figures.

To put these numbers in context - nine million jobs were lost in the 2008 financial crisis over a much, much longer period.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahh...continues-to-ravage-the-economy/#352dc1394526

Here's further context in the form of a graph that has already seen jobless claims in the US rise by over 8 times it's previous record.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVKa_KjUEAEA9tY?format=jpg&name=small
There's three factors to consider for the economic impact: the depth of the economic pause, the length of the economic pause, and the shape of the recovery. The experts don't really have a clue about the latter, but there's some early signs in China that suggest it could be very quick recovery. Obviously the unprecedented economic policies taken by so many governments are aimed at making it that "v-shaped recovery". In which case the depths we're reaching right now aren't very indicative of the levels we'll return to post-pandemic.

Here in South Africa before the virus put us on a 3-week lockdown which has since been increased by another 2 weeks we already were in a recession, compounded with being dropped into Junk status. Our unemployment rate was around 30% and a lot of people depend on day to day jobs to survive. People dig through our dustbins to get the plastic bottles so they can survive. The economic issues that most 1st world countries have thrown money cannot be done over here people over here face the very real threat of starving to death. Already made me chuckle people priorities 4 bottle stores have been looted because of the ban of smokes and booze sales. If this lockdown continues longer than the 5 weeks I really can see social unrest starting to rear its ugly head. Already my son's nursery school teacher has lost her job not 2 weeks into lockdown. Crazy times.
Undoubtedly the impacts of lockdowns will be unevenly spread, across countries and within countries, depending on the nature of the work and the policies designed for them. Every country will need to make some terrible decisions and in the worst-hit areas, I think there's a big danger of social unrest regardless of which route they take. A lot of people won't sit quietly while lives are lost to save jobs. In the UK there's a clear consensus that saving every life matters more than protecting the economy, but obviously context matters a lot. The UK is able to do both quite well for now. For those relying on day-to-day jobs, a non-existent physical economy without economic protection from the government is life-and-death if it goes on long enough.

In any case, I think it's safe to say the plight of the full-time employee forced to work from home won't really feature on anyone's list of concerns.
 

Wumminator

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Here's a crazy idea - why don't we just stop the clocks for a year? No mortgages, no rent, no debit orders, no nothing! Then next year is 2020 again and we're all one year older in reality ;)
All affluent, like-minded individuals know this won't work.
No, because then I’ll have people in my extended family saying shit like “I’m not 51 I’m doing fifty again” and thinking they’re hilarious.
 

711

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I'm talking about the people that actually have the virus, if you get it you have a 1 in 5 chance of not making it.
To get the percentage you're looking for you would have to add to your recovered figure all those that have had the virus but never been tested. Many who have caught it will never have been tested because they haven't been ill enough to have been hospitalised, they will have recovered on their own. Indeed it looks like many that catch it have symptoms so minor they don't even know.
 
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Wolverine

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Continue the lockdown until we get a grip on things. Meaning hospital admissions trending right down. Then gradually lift when testing capacities at local level have better infrastructure so that we can continue isolating the vulnerable, social distancing in hot spot areas.

The trouble is that all of that requires nuance and our government initially tried to be way too clever with behaviour psychologists. What makes it even more egregious and negligent that they did this little social experiment knowing our ITU capacity, no distribution PPE network or logistics or plan for mass testing or testing for healthcare workers.

I don't know what the answer is. I think to be honest I'm just traumatised by seeing, discussing death so much so much now and so often, just really hesitant to do anything that could risk accelerating this. I'm probably not aware or cognisant of the economic implications but I just feel its beyond that now, or it should be.
 

Based Adnan

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Is it possible to be on 'deaths door' with this virus yet at the same time not require a ventillator?
 

2cents

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Fecking nightmare wearing a mask with glasses on, they keep fogging up every time I exhale.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Fecking nightmare wearing a mask with glasses on, they keep fogging up every time I exhale.
Try washing them with soapy water and then drying with a fine cloth. Works on my scuba mask anyway.
 

Walrus

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My cousin is a doctor in London, last week he was moved off of his previous research onto a COVID-19 ward. Very first day on the ward he wasnt given PPE, and today has tested positive for it after developing mild symptoms. Shambles.
 

One Night Only

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With global CV19 deaths at around 105,000 and UK deaths about top 10,000 (hospitals only) we really do need to understand why we account for almost 1/10 deaths.

And in particular why similar nations like Germany has managed to limit their deaths significantly lower.

Yes I know about Italy, Spain and France.
But we should be comparing ourselves with the best and not the worst.
It's simple, we are a terrible nation for looking after our own health, ridiculous amounts of obese people for a start.

Add in the drinking culture and chain smokers, and recreational drug users and you have your answer.
 

Prometheus

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Just been watching CNN news and their reporter in china is saying authorities are actively blocking universities and research institutions from researching the origins of the virus. Very suspicious behaviour and worth seeing if the story develops further

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...AhAB&usg=AOvVaw23NQCcFQtY7l3NM7vIJw2y&ampcf=1

Editied to add link to uk article
I doubt it develops into anything we don't already know. The last paragraph is an insight into what they are trying to do I think:
Around a month ago senior Chinese diplomats, officials and state media all publicly encouraged speculation that the new coronavirus could have come from outside the country. The foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian suggested without evidence that the US military might have brought the virus to Wuhan.
Trump talks shit about China, China creates fake news about CIA, Boris says there will reckoning for China, China laughs at Boris...

It's all a pissing contest trying to divert attention away now.
 

Brwned

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It's simple, we are a terrible nation for looking after our own health, ridiculous amounts of obese people for a start.

Add in the drinking culture and chain smokers, and recreational drug users and you have your answer.
I imagine the figures are slightly different now, but according to the EU's statistical office Germany has more smokers, more drinkers (and binge drinkers) and fewer obese people. Taken altogether, Germany are more or less on par with the UK, and the UK aren't particularly exceptional in any sense.
 

Mr Pigeon

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On what planet is that attacking NHS England.
The same planet where Miliband said it was shocking how many people were having to use food banks and Cameron's response was "how dare you insult the good people who run food banks". They're deflectionist wankers of the highest kind.
 

Arruda

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So I was waiting for some take away food an hour ago when I heard a shitload of sirens nearby. Not usual, I thought it was either a few people being transported to Intensive Care or police moving in force to deal with another emergency.

Just heard it was a fire that broke in the kitchen of our hospital. Christ. I really hope no one was hurt.
 

Jippy

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There's three factors to consider for the economic impact: the depth of the economic pause, the length of the economic pause, and the shape of the recovery. The experts don't really have a clue about the latter, but there's some early signs in China that suggest it could be very quick recovery. Obviously the unprecedented economic policies taken by so many governments are aimed at making it that "v-shaped recovery". In which case the depths we're reaching right now aren't very indicative of the levels we'll return to post-pandemic.



Undoubtedly the impacts of lockdowns will be unevenly spread, across countries and within countries, depending on the nature of the work and the policies designed for them. Every country will need to make some terrible decisions and in the worst-hit areas, I think there's a big danger of social unrest regardless of which route they take. A lot of people won't sit quietly while lives are lost to save jobs. In the UK there's a clear consensus that saving every life matters more than protecting the economy, but obviously context matters a lot. The UK is able to do both quite well for now. For those relying on day-to-day jobs, a non-existent physical economy without economic protection from the government is life-and-death if it goes on long enough.

In any case, I think it's safe to say the plight of the full-time employee forced to work from home won't really feature on anyone's list of concerns.
A YouGov poll is hardly a 'clear consensus'.
 

Wednesday at Stoke

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I doubt it develops into anything we don't already know. The last paragraph is an insight into what they are trying to do I think:
Trump talks shit about China, China creates fake news about CIA, Boris says there will reckoning for China, China laughs at Boris...

It's all a pissing contest trying to divert attention away now.
Trump didn't talk shit about China until that clown in the Chinese foreign ministry started leaking false news that the US army brought the virus over to them in October. In fact he was publicly praising Xi Jinping as late as March as he didn't want to piss them off ahead of a trade deal he sees as key to his re-election.

Whatever shit the Chinese are drowning in is down to their own thick headedness and self created nuisance.
 

Camilo

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I imagine the figures are slightly different now, but according to the EU's statistical office Germany has more smokers, more drinkers (and binge drinkers) and fewer obese people. Taken altogether, Germany are more or less on par with the UK, and the UK aren't particularly exceptional in any sense.
We're thick as shit though. I'm still reading news articles with quotes from the public like "I'm still unsure whether I can walk past someone in a park, the government should clarify". Presumably these same people need government videos explaining how to wipe their arse.

Zero personal responsibility.
 

Dante

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London has only 13% of the UK's population but 28% of its coronavirus deaths.

As much as anything else, the UK is a victim of the success of its capital on the global stage. The same goes for New York.