SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[blue blue]

What do I need proof of?

I've posted links various times in this thread to the reports issued by the Chinese medical community. By 14th Jan they'd told the world pretty much everything we needed to know, just 2 weeks after first concerns were raised in a few hospitals in Wuhan about a few cases of pneumonia. Given the scale we're talking about with a country that large and everything else they've got going on, I don't think realistically that they could have done much better, no.

Once they identified it they managed to trace the first case back to 1st Dec (it didn't start in the wet market), but that is retrospective analysis. It'll likely be traced back further after more work is done, that don't mean 'China' knew about it and covered it up from these dates, as some people seem to think.

You seem to have made your mind up.

I have checked back as far as I could and couldn't see any links on your previous posts.

I read a bit about Li Wenliang and it appears the Chinese authorities accept he was correct and they shouldn't have punished him. They have issued a veiled apology to his family but its too late. He died of a different strain of SARS which in itself is being investigated. He was one of only eight doctors who had identified a new illness and a report in the Guardian explains that his warnings went back to early December 2019. This would indicate there was at least one Chinese doctor issuing warnings over a month before the 14th Jan.

The fact there were other doctors corroborating his findings leads me to believe there is more to this story than meets the eye and it is naïve to believe the Chinese are not capable of making serious errors. It is reported today that President Macron believes there is more to come from this story and that it is naïve to think the Chinese have handled this better than us.

I find it implausible that there will be no restitution for this one way or another. Too many people have either died, been ruined or just deeply effected. Like a war it will be remembered and the victims should be remembered. With those memories will be thoughts of justice and how to prevent such a tragedy ever happening again. I know you see this as blame but it's beyond blame.

Lessons must be learnt and I just wonder if the Chinese people will have a Tiananmen Sq moment. It may not happen next week or next month but the full ramifications of this event haven't yet crystallised.

 

[sun_tzu]

You are right and the Government should be getting absolutely slaughtered for the response so far. I think many people are thinking 'this is not the time' and perhaps they are right in that we need to stick together and make the best of this awful situation to get through it. Once this is all over there needs to be a public enquiry and people put under severe scrutiny and the necessary changes implemented. It's a national scandal and to our utter shame that the UK has made such a mess of this and how the NHS has been underfunded and brought to the brink by Tory austerity and mismanagement. All of this needs to come out and I hope the level of outrage will be of the same level as the current level of respect being shown to our NHS front-line staff.

I doubt it - the outrage at grenfell had largely subsided by the time its got to court... I think by the time an enquiry looked into this it would probably be during the middle of the inevitable huge recession (with added brexit calamity) - it would get some cut through but i suspect not as much as we feel right now it should

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

Noticed that too. People always refer to "our NHS" as if it's a close friend. It's a little odd to personify a public service in that way. Germany's system doesn't even have a name and it's partly private which may have worked to our advantage in this crisis.

In other news, Germany's infection rate is now down to 0.7.

Excellent news. Love it, keep bringing these glimmers of positivity into the thread please, fellow CAF'ers around Europe.

You are right and the Government should be getting absolutely slaughtered for the response so far. I think many people are thinking 'this is not the time' and perhaps they are right in that we need to stick together and make the best of this awful situation to get through it. Once this is all over there needs to be a public enquiry and people put under severe scrutiny and the necessary changes implemented. It's a national scandal and to our utter shame that the UK has made such a mess of this and how the NHS has been underfunded and brought to the brink by Tory austerity and mismanagement. All of this needs to come out and I hope the level of outrage will be of the same level as the current level of respect being shown to our NHS front-line staff.

I know and it hard to disagree with that.
I just hope people's memories are longer than I think they will be. Once we're out of this I hope people are paying attention when Boris refuses to give NHS staff a pay-rise again and aren't too distracted by going to the shop to upgrade their iPhone.

 

[Penna]

I read somewhere that soles of shoes can have a massive impact on spreading different versions of a virus. If people sneeze or cough when walking near a road and then it lands on the road, people can then pick it up off the bottom of their shoe. I'm not saying that is what is happening here, but you can sort of see the logic.

Well, it won't do any harm of course - and if there's some truth in that, it could help. And it lets people see that the Comune is taking measures.

The units of local government in this country vary in size from huge cities to little villages, and when it's the latter it seems very easy to get things sorted out. They have been very proactive with closing down anywhere you can sit or gather, they've been distributing masks and as I mentioned yesterday, there is a very active police presence. Funding was quickly made available for people who are in difficulties because of not being able to work, and the shop just keeps a tally for folk who need to chalk things up (to be paid by the Mayor's office, so people don't have to wait for it to filter through to them).

One thing that's helped tremendously is that the (single) GP has made it possible for us to just ask the pharmacist for our repeat medications, with no paperwork having to be shown apart from your health services card. Everyone knowing everyone else can have its advantages.

 

[onemanarmy]

114 deaths in Belgian hospitals today, 199 in nursing homes.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

You are right and the Government should be getting absolutely slaughtered for the response so far. I think many people are thinking 'this is not the time' and perhaps they are right in that we need to stick together and make the best of this awful situation to get through it. Once this is all over there needs to be a public enquiry and people put under severe scrutiny and the necessary changes implemented. It's a national scandal and to our utter shame that the UK has made such a mess of this and how the NHS has been underfunded and brought to the brink by Tory austerity and mismanagement. All of this needs to come out and I hope the level of outrage will be of the same level as the current level of respect being shown to our NHS front-line staff.

And yet we all know that the reality is that Boris will be hailed a Churchillian like hero when he returns to our screens on a daily basis having fought his way bravely through the disease with the help of his NHS angels.

 

[Shakesy]

One thing that's helped tremendously is that the (single) GP has made it possible for us to just ask the pharmacist for our repeat medications, with no paperwork having to be shown apart from your health services card. Everyone knowing everyone else can have its advantages.

Our town has two pharmacies, and it is awesome that the pharmacist can prescribe meds himself during lockdown. I don't know if this is common practice in my country (SA) during this time. My wife got antibiotics two days ago without even going to the GP. I guess it could also be dangerous, but it makes sense to do it this way.

 

[Vidyoyo]

It seems to me that this clapping lark is partly due to respect for key workers - the human sentiment - but also a lot because of politicians wanting to self-serve. I'm sure there was a leaked memo from Boris during his election campaign which said that he saw supporting the NHS of huge importance to his tenure. We also kinda saw a preface to it with the big red bus and 300m figure when the NHS was used as a weapon against being in the EU.

The sad thing is that it's working. It's a smokescreen making the government look better when they should be held account for their imbecilic decisions.

 

[Grinner]

It appears that the rules have been revised to allow for people to drive to places to take their exercise.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...der-lockdown-rules-police-advised-coronavirus

 

[fergieisold]

It appears that the rules have been revised to allow for people to drive to places to take their exercise.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...der-lockdown-rules-police-advised-coronavirus

Good, aslong as it is local area it isn't a problem. I'm lucky I can walk out of my door into the hills but now this opens up a few more options.

 

[Sky1981]

You seem to have made your mind up.

I have checked back as far as I could and couldn't see any links on your previous posts.

I read a bit about Li Wenliang and it appears the Chinese authorities accept he was correct and they shouldn't have punished him. They have issued a veiled apology to his family but its too late. He died of a different strain of SARS which in itself is being investigated. He was one of only eight doctors who had identified a new illness and a report in the Guardian explains that his warnings went back to early December 2019. This would indicate there was at least one Chinese doctor issuing warnings over a month before the 14th Jan.

The fact there were other doctors corroborating his findings leads me to believe there is more to this story than meets the eye and it is naïve to believe the Chinese are not capable of making serious errors. It is reported today that President Macron believes there is more to come from this story and that it is naïve to think the Chinese have handled this better than us.

I find it implausible that there will be no restitution for this one way or another. Too many people have either died, been ruined or just deeply effected. Like a war it will be remembered and the victims should be remembered. With those memories will be thoughts of justice and how to prevent such a tragedy ever happening again. I know you see this as blame but it's beyond blame.

Lessons must be learnt and I just wonder if the Chinese people will have a Tiananmen Sq moment. It may not happen next week or next month but the full ramifications of this event haven't yet crystallised.

it's like a kid crunching one nite before the exam, and blamed that other kid why he only tells him about the exam 2 months ago, when he knew it 2.5 months before.

Wait, he scores better than us, he must be cheating. No way he can be better than us.

Do you see how hard he studies? He must be cheating. He must be, how naive of you to think otherwise

 

[11101]

I find your first statement depressing. So are we to just sit here and say nothing? I feel as though this is why we see so much apathy from the public towards political events, because it’s just accepted as a given that governments are underwhelming. Well fecking do something about it then. It is still maddening to think about all the Remainers who grumble about the Brexit result, but when you look at the turnout figures it soon becomes clear – they didn’t turn out.

I agree with your second paragraph wholeheartedly. It’s the same reason someone like me ridiculing the ‘Clap for the NHS’ is treated sacrilegiously. Irrespective of the emotional aspect of the debate, it’s clear that our health service is underfunded and under resourced though – various first hand accounts in the current climate testify to this point.

I just don't agree that the NHS is particularly underfunded. It could be better, but we spend roughly the European average on healthcare. In terms of outcomes, there was no marked improvement when Blair doubled the expenditure in the 2000s, we continued to move on the same trajectory, just as everybody else did. Most of it went on ill advised projects and added complexity. The overall spending is not the problem. How it is spent is the problem, and this personification of the NHS is designed to shut down any talk of that.

 

[UweBein]

So my understanding of their lack of sensitivity is that these tests may return a false negative, but there's no chance they will return a false positive? So they would be fail safe in a way - nobody who hasn't had it is going to be sent out thinking they're immune.

Oh, they will return plenty of false positives. There is no way around that. There are surely thousands of people right now in who have been tested positive but do not carry and have not carried the virus in the past. Even, if your test is quite good, like 99% (which none of the tests will reach in practice), you will have loads of false positive especially because the prevalence is so low.

EDIT: Sorry, my bad, apparetly they apply a second test after a positive result, which should greatly reduce the amount of false positives.

 

[United58]

Are China finally starting to be honest? 1,290 deaths reported today https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Nobody is ever happy with their government. Before austerity it was the rich getting richer and unjustified wars. It will be something else for whoever replaces this one. The NHS budget per capita is down slightly post recession, after being massively and unsustainably pumped up by Blair/Brown, but it's still far higher than at any other point in the past.

Is your implication that governments should not be criticised because "nobody is ever happy"? Or is it an attempt to shut down debate? If not, then it is a throwaway comment that has no relevancy to what our aim should be which is continuous improvement and refining of governance.

I think when the UK responsehas been singled out for criticism by the WHO, in the midst of a viral outbreak, we have a pressing need to criticise the government!

 

[Feed Me]

I just don't agree that the NHS is particularly underfunded. It could be better, but we spend roughly the European average on healthcare. In terms of outcomes, there was no marked improvement when Blair doubled the expenditure in the 2000s, we continued to move on the same trajectory, just as everybody else did. Most of it went on ill advised projects and added complexity. The overall spending is not the problem. How it is spent is the problem, and this personification of the NHS is designed to shut down any talk of that.

That’s actually a fair point in reference to the New Labour years. Pretty much summed up the phrases red tape and inefficiency. You are also spot on with your take on NHS personification. It’s a lot harder to talk about harsh truths when it’s “a close friend or family member” as opposed to a faceless entity.

I am off to do some research on NHS funding during the last decade, so not going to come back to you on that yet.

Edit: That said, on New Labour, I don’t recall many frontline NHS staff so consistently critical about working conditions. Again, I plan to do some research to validate / disprove that view.

 

[11101]

Is your implication that governments should not be criticised because "nobody is ever happy"? Or is it an attempt to shut down debate? If not, then it is a throwaway comment that has no relevancy to what our aim should be which is continuous improvement and refining of governance.

I think when the UK responsehas been singled out for criticism by the WHO, in the midst of a viral outbreak, we have a pressing need to criticise the government!

To be honest, I'm just expressing frustration that what should be (and was) an informative thread has been littered with political squabbling for the last 500 pages.

 

[RobinLFC]

Noticed that too. People always refer to "our NHS" as if it's a close friend. It's a little odd to personify a public service in that way. Germany's system doesn't even have a name and it's partly private which may have worked to our advantage in this crisis.

In other news, Germany's infection rate is now down to 0.7.

0.8 in Belgium now. As long as we can hold it under 1, it's "dying out", right? Without the measures it would've been between 2.0 and 3.0 here apparently.

 

[Alabaster Codify7]

0.8 in Belgium now. As long as we can hold it under 1, it's "dying out", right? Without the measures it would've been between 2.0 and 3.0 here apparently.

Also really good news, cool.

 

[Smores]

To be honest, I'm just expressing frustration that what should be (and was) an informative thread has been littered with political squabbling for the last 500 pages.

Crisis of our lifetime and yet some don't think there should be any political debate around it

I'm sorry but the correlation between political opinion expressed within the current event forums over the last couple of years and those who don't want any governmental scrutiny seems to paint a very clear picture of intention.

 

[sullydnl]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Up is down, black is white, etc.

 

[Josep Dowling]

It’s hard to be objective when lives are destroyed by austerity. I don’t doubt your point about NHS funds being used inefficiently. But there is a clear trend towards serious underfunding of frontline public services in the UK.

I certainly agree on the underfunding of frontline public services. They need to stop giving so much funding to people with vested interested and profiting themselves and simply increase the minimum salary for nurses etc. I feel any party that does this in their next manifesto has a high chance of winning votes.

 

[Buster15]

Is your implication that governments should not be criticised because "nobody is ever happy"? Or is it an attempt to shut down debate? If not, then it is a throwaway comment that has no relevancy to what our aim should be which is continuous improvement and refining of governance.

I think when the UK responsehas been singled out for criticism by the WHO, in the midst of a viral outbreak, we have a pressing need to criticise the government!

Indeed.
This government loves to feed us what appear to be wonderful statements which rarely turn out to be factual.

But my biggest criticism at the moment is the almost complete lack of trust of the people by the government.

They tell us that we can't be trusted to be told the exit strategy from the lockdown because we will be confused.

Proves they think we are all dim idiots who are incapable of processing information....

 

[Full bodied red]

A lot of luck and bad luck involved with COVID.

Kenney Dalgleish survives, Norman Hunter doesn't.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

A lot of luck and bad luck involved with COVID.

Kenney Dalgleish survives, Norman Hunter doesn't.

Poor Norman. R.I.P.

 

[Full bodied red]

Another aspect of COVID - effect on the different militaries.

We woke up to this news this morning -

https://www.varmatin.com/faits-de-s...-symbole-dune-epidemie-toujours-active-497327

Sorry it's in French, but 668 positive tests ( with 500 results still to come ) from the crew of, arguably, the French Navy's biggest, best known warship.

Conspiracy theorists are already speculating what would / could happen if there were similar circumstances amongst the UK, US and other NATO navys.

 

[11101]

Crisis of our lifetime and yet some don't think there should be any political debate around it

That's not what i said. Just that we should put the stream of Twitter nonsense somewhere else.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Thanks - I had just assumed the clinical trials etc would take a year or so unles it was a pre approved drug for something else - good therapuitc drugs would potentially alleviate signifigant stress from health services so fingers crossed some progress can happen there fairly rapidly - though as you allude to it seems people are already working at rates not previously thought practical .

Drug development usually takes several years. This 18 month vaccine timeline getting talked about seems to be creating ludicrous expectations for drug development and there’s enormous pressure on pharma companies and regulators to cut as many corners as possible. So maybe it’s possible to get a novel antiviral to market in record time too? I wouldn’t be top of the queue to take it, mind you. Antivirals are super tough to get right and often super toxic when they go wrong.

 

[T00lsh3d]

Bunnings is a DIY store.

Scott Morrison is the PM. He likes the nickname SCOMO but everyone now calls him Scotty From Marketing, which he hates, after his pathetic showing in the bush fires. The only good thing you can say about him is that he isn't as pure evil as Peter Dutton.

That’s class

 

[SalfordRed18]

Oh wow! You’ve made me see the error of my ways. You’re right. I was absolutely suggesting that if you clap, you are doing so to make it clear NHS workers don’t need more PPE and that the Tory government is fully endorsed by all.

Take your hand off it.

You’re the fella that could see your star player score an overhead kick from 25 yards in the dying seconds to win a CL final, then walk out before the trophy is presented as he still hasn’t signed a new contract. While also complaining he earns too much already. Loudly. In the car. On your own. Because talksport won’t take your calls anymore.

Get out of your own way, you’ll be happier for it.

Eh? Most of the people clapping did vote Tory. The point is, junior Doctors would sooner have a payrise and PPE then a clap at this point. The more it goes on, the less so it's about the staff and the more about virtue signalling.

And as for your last point, don't know what you're on about, completely lost me. What does the amount a footballer (in the private sector) is paid, have to do with the NHS? Two entirely different means of funding.

 

[Arruda]

Worth remembering that during the 72 year lifetime of the NHS, only 27 have been under a Labour government. So that’s 45 years under the Tories. It’s only really in the last ten years of Tory rule that there’s been serious ideological challenge to the NHS ethos.

This is the result of a global trend in politics. Portuguese NHS is younger, but the love for it is very similar from what I see in the british.

And our "tory" governments were a lot more protective of it in decades past.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Looks like the lockdown will be relaxed in Wales after this three weeks

"First Minister Mark Drakeford hopes to lift some of lockdown restrictions when the three-week extension ends on 7 May." (BBC)

 

[sun_tzu]

Drug development usually takes several years. This 18 month vaccine timeline getting talked about seems to be creating ludicrous expectations for drug development and there’s enormous pressure on pharma companies and regulators to cut as many corners as possible. So maybe it’s possible to get a novel antiviral to market in record time too? I wouldn’t be top of the queue to take it, mind you. Antivirals are super tough to get right and often super toxic when they go wrong.

I am assuming if any government wants it rushed through they are pretty much going to have to underwrite the risks (e.g. another thalidomide) otherwise no company will release without certainty (which would take longer trials I guess) Insurance (and again without certainly im not sure an insurance company would want to be on cover for it) or underwriting (presumably at government level or even WHO level)
The more I think about it I think the long term strategy must actually be work on a vaccine and theraputics in the hope that something comes off... but in reality flatten the curve of infection and get herd immunity on the longer term without overwhelming the system (whilst hoping people get lifelong immunity, and any mutations make the disease less deadly)
The vaccine talk seems like a fall back if that does not work and something to give people hope and saving them having to admit that they are really resigned to long term herd immunity unless they get lucky

wasnt there a mers vaccine in development - that still hasnt finished tests (8 years for that one)

 

[Arruda]

https://www.msn.com/en-za/health/co...-plots-re-opening/ar-BB12LcYF?ocid=spartandhp

So China was not cooking the books then.

That's precisely what that article suggests. The update in cases and deaths completely goes against the narrative that they were/are cooking them.

But you're better of looking at the original and official report from China. Even with the limitations of google translate it's quite clear what they were doing.

 

[cyberman]

Its weird that I agree with Trump but his point of finding better ways of treating the disease rather than miracle vaccines really stands out to me.
Now, theres an overwhelming chance that its bullshit that ive fallen for and im on the first rung of hating Mexicans but it makes sense to me

 

[JPRouve]

Another aspect of COVID - effect on the different militaries.

We woke up to this news this morning -

https://www.varmatin.com/faits-de-s...-symbole-dune-epidemie-toujours-active-497327

Sorry it's in French, but 668 positive tests ( with 500 results still to come ) from the crew of, arguably, the French Navy's biggest, best known warship.

Conspiracy theorists are already speculating what would / could happen if there were similar circumstances amongst the UK, US and other NATO navys.

You didn't really woke up to that news? The reason it is back is because many members of the crew were suspected to be infected and something like 50 were positive 10 days ago. Also it has already happened to the US, the Theodore Roosevelt being an example.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...lt-sparked-by-flight-crews-officials-believe/

 

[Fiskey]

This is the result of a global trend in politics. Portuguese NHS is younger, but the love for it is very similar from what I see in the british.

And our "tory" governments were a lot more protective of it in decades past.

I just don't think you can say Thatcher was more protective of the NHS than recent Tory leaders. I don't think there is any basis in fact, read her and Ken Clarke's autobiography for a sense of her view, and then Cameron's for his. You can also look at the funding.

Edit: Sorry, I think you were talking about Portugal!

 

[Inigo Montoya]

A lot of luck and bad luck involved with COVID.

Kenney Dalgleish survives, Norman Hunter doesn't.

Hunter had health issues prior to this. While we’re on the Leeds of old, Sir Bobby’s brother Jack hasn’t been well for a number of years now

 

[BootsyCollins]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

So what so you guys think of this? Suggest that smoking actually protect you against Covid-19. Says its not a case closed ofcourse but still...

 

[Full bodied red]

You didn't really woke up to that news? The reason it is back is because many members of the crew were suspected to be infected and something like 50 were positive 10 days ago. Also it has already happened to the US, the Theodore Roosevelt being an example.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your...lt-sparked-by-flight-crews-officials-believe/

Yes we did...

We woke up to fact that almost 700 have now tested positive - a bit of a jump from the 50-something announced last week.

Maybe we just don't read the same papers or watch the same TV channels and so we missed updates.

I didn't know about the Theodore Roosevelt though, but then again I wasn't looking for news about the effects of COVID on the military.