SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

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2. Taking less of an economic hit. Obviously it’s still very early but how is Sweden doing in comparison to other Scandi/Nordic countries? Unemployment. GDP drop predictions etc. I’d be very curious about that one.
Less of a hit than Denmark and Finland for sure, Norway is just so rich so that's another story.

Sweden is headed to recession though, just like most of the other countries. Massive unemployment already, it's why the idea that "we sit here pretending the virus doesn't exist" has always been the biggest bullshit argument.
The argument was always a pragmatic one here, "what will lockdown achieve longterm"?:

• It will flatten the curve
Sweden: We believe we can do that without lockdown. So far, they are correct.

They would never close national parks like they have in the UK, or ban kids from going and playing outside, because they weigh the risks and believe that the risk of transmission in those areas is so low, that affecting kids' athletic habbits can have terrible long term effects, and that closing parks can have massive mental effects for everyone. Locking people in their houses around the World has already lead to an incredible rise in domestic and child abuse.

I feel that in the rush to flatten the curve, other countries have concentrated so much on Covid-19 that they've completely lost touch will the possible long term effects of their policies, or have they even considered how much spread certain measures are even preventing, like the closures of national parks? Or maybe cancelling an entire season of athletics for children?
 
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TMDaines

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Very disillusioned with the very poor questions from journalists today and yesterday after that damning number of excess deaths in the ONS report on Tuesday. Absolutely nobody stepped up to challenge them on that.

I did have a chuckle at @Arruda’s serious suggestion that doctors, i.e. GPs, should be high on the list of those we listen to in order to strategise this problem and the implication that non-clinicians couldn’t possibly have any skills or insight to leave them better placed.
 

nimic

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Another thing I'd add is just to ask people to use Occam's razor when considering Sweden to other countries.

Sweden: 244 deaths /million population
1319 deaths in Stockholm, Scandinavia's most populous area.
Only 192 deaths in Gothenburg County (Västa Götaland)
Only 62 Malmö in County (Skåne)
This is a decent point, particularly compared to some of more dense countries in Europe, but I'm not sure it Stockholm having such a massive amount of deaths means that Västa Götaland is entirely off the hook. It's still got only a handful fewer deaths than the entirety of Norway. Skåne is more impressive.

Also, I wonder if people realize that Norway, which has been quite successful in halting the spread of coronavirus, hasn't been as locked down as many other countries in Europe. Many different kinds of shops have still been open, and even restaurants have never been shut down completely (though many chains or individual restaurants shut themselves down). I bet the biggest difference between Norway and Sweden has been the school system, which has been completely shut down in Norway (and is being slowly re-opened now, along with many of the services which had been shut down such as hairdressers and the like).

This isn't or shouldn't be a question of complete shutdown or no shutdown at all.

Edit: I should say, one more difference might be in travel restrictions. I don't know Sweden has done it, but in Norway anyone entering the country has to spend 14 days in quarantine. This was instituted quite early in Norway's stage of infection, first targeted (specific areas in Northern Italy and Tirol to begin with, then everywhere but the Nordic countries), and then universally. Hell, many Northern counties instituted their own quarantines for people travelling in from the south of the country. There's barely any infection anywhere that isn't Oslo these days (and Oslo is declining heavily), and there's barely been any at all in the north (which isn't very densely populated, of course).
 
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2cents

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Apologies if already posted:

 
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This is a decent point, particularly compared to some of more dense countries in Europe, but I'm not sure it Stockholm having such a massive amount of deaths means that Västa Götaland is entirely off the hook. It's still got only a handful fewer deaths than the entirety of Norway. Skåne is more impressive.
How many deaths in Oslo @nimic ?

Edit: 57, just discovered the VG link.

But let's not forgot that Västa Götaland has 1,725,881 people, Oslo kommun just 666 759.
 
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BootsyCollins

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Aye, it's mad. We haven't seen the missus grandma since mid March, poor thing, misses her grand daughter terribly. Our neighbours on both sides are devastated for the same reasons with their grandkids. The city (Stockholm) is something of a ghost town in comparison to "normal", even parkrun is cancelled and only 30 people usually turn up to those.
At Easter we had 10% of the normal travel.
Both myself and the missus celebrated big birthday's.... alone.
Yeah, same here. We talk on facetime with the kids grandparents and shop for them, but they have not hugged their grandchildren for months now. Our youngest had her 3 year old birthday with no guests.

Our oldest daughter was supose to have her gradutation party tomorrow. Now its just nothing, she just has her hat. At least she is sencible and understand its for the better for everyone, and dont complain.
Neither do we.

Its all small things compared to the bigger picture, but we really miss the small things. Like having friends over for dinner, go to the movies or taking the kids to grönalund.
So as we know, life is far from normal in Sweden.

Btw, saw you wrote you lived north of Stockholm. I do to:)
 
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Yeah, same here. We talk on facetime with the kids grandparents and shop for them, but they have not hugged their grandchildren for months now. Our youngest had her 3 year old birthday with no guests.

Our oldest daughter was supose to have her gradutation party tomorrow. No its just nothing, she just has her hat. At least she is sencible and understand its for the better for everyone, and dont complain.
Neither do we.

Its all small things compared to the bigger picture, but we really miss the small things. Like having friends over for dinner, go to the movies or taking the kids to grönalund.
So as we now, life is far from normal in Sweden.

Btw, saw you wrote you lived north of Stockholm. I do to:)
Sigtuna mate.

The graduation thing is absolutely devastating, especially when you understand what a big deal it is here, one of the most amazing days of a teenagers life, or a person's entire life I'd imagine.
Absolutely gutted for them :(

Seems you have similar experiences to me and 99% of other people live in Sweden, I find it crazy to consider that most of the World think we're just carrying on like normal.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Apparently the IMF currently expects a GDP growth of -6.8% for Sweden in 2020 while it expects -6.5 for Denmark and -6.3 for Norway. Obviously the results could look very different in the end but I thought it was interesting that they don't expect any great results from Sweden.
Interesting. Thanks. Although I reckon GDP predictions are about as reliable as the predictions about total mortality. I’d be really curious to see how the economies compare over the last several weeks.
 

nimic

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How many deaths in Oslo @nimic ?
I have repeatedly tried and failed to find even remotely up-to-date (or even any at all) statistics for cases and deaths on a regional basis. I know they exist somewhere, since they've been referenced at least by the media and I am sure the health authorities. Oslo has definitely fared the worst, and these days it's pretty much only Oslo with any significant spread. I couldn't say what proportion of the deaths are in Oslo, but there have been some deaths all over the country at least.

I edited my post while you were replying btw.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Less of a hit than Denmark and Finland for sure, Norway is just so rich so that's another story.

Sweden is headed to recession though, just like most of the other countries. Massive unemployment already, it's why the idea that "we sit here pretending the virus doesn't exist" has always been the biggest bullshit argument.
The argument was always a pragmatic one here, "what will lockdown achieve longterm"?:

• It will flatten the curve
Sweden: We believe we can do that without lockdown. So far, they are correct.

They would never close national parks like they have in the UK, or ban kids from going and playing outside, because they weigh the risks and believe that the risk of transmission in those areas is so low, that affecting kids' athletic habbits can have terrible long term effects, and that closing parks can have massive mental effects for everyone. Locking people in their houses around the World has already lead to an incredible rise in domestic and child abuse.

I feel that in the rush to flatten the curve, other countries have concentrated so much on Covid-19 that they've completely lost touch will the possible long term effects of their policies, or have they even considered how much spread certain measures are even preventing, like the closures of national parks? Or maybe cancelling an entire season of athletics for children?
The kids athletics is a sore one for me. My son is 11, plays for a good team and has been a joy to watch for the last year (after years freezing my arse off on the sidelines, watching absolute shite). Him not playing any football any more this year has killed me.

From what you say the Swedish approach is nowhere near as radically different as a lot of people think but if they let their kids play sports that’s something I could definitely get on board with. I really hope we get a scientific consensus soon about kids. Are they a significant transmission risk or not? I’m hearing a lot of smart people say that they may not be. If kids can play sports, go to school and hang out with grandparents I reckon most of society would handle “lockdown“ for as long as it takes.
 

nimic

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Apparently the IMF currently expects a GDP growth of -6.8% for Sweden in 2020 while it expects -6.5 for Denmark and -6.3 for Norway. Obviously the results could look very different in the end but I thought it was interesting that they don't expect any great results from Sweden.
Worth mentioning that Norway has the sovereign wealth fund to draw on, which means that it's probably easier for Norway to mitigate the long-term effects than almost any other country. Or at least try. The other Scandinavian countries are wealthy and well-run in the typical Scandinavian fashion, but they don't have that. Interesting that the numbers are so similar, I guess some things are unavoidable.
 

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Changing lockdown phase =/= moving to the Swedish model. The Swedish model is defined by the lack of action in the initial days of the virus. Its completely disingenuous to suggest that countries are moving to the Swedish model, by that logic, every single country in lock down would eventually adopt the Swedish model, what an incredible testament to the Swedish approach that would be :rolleyes:

There is actually no such thing as "Swedish model". The only "model" is lockdown, it just so happens that Sweden have not felt the need to implement that model yet.

There are only two logical reasons to go into lockdown -

1. to buy time until a vaccine or treatment is found and ready to go. Any country (I don't believe there are any) that entered lockdown for this reason would have been stupid and naive.

2. to flatten the curve if it's been estimated that there is a risk of medical services and resources being overrun by the virus

Sweden, like all countries discounted option 1 and evaluated that for them option 2 was not and to this point has not been necessary. Other countries are not on the verge of re-opening society to similar levels to that of Sweden because they think the numbers are now on a permanent sliding scale downwards and going to continue until the virus goes away. They're doing so because they've either a) realised they pulled the trigger too early b) realised the limitations and lack of longevity in a lockdown state c) think that the lockdown has done it's job and that for now the curve is flattened enough to loosen restrictions. C being the decision Sweden arrived at and have stayed with to this point.

There are probably some countries that entered lockdown before it reached the point where it was actually necessary. I think UK may be one of those and that brings it's own problems as you are going to have a lot of people rebelling against authority coming from several different camps once lockdown is ended. You are going to have the group who are angry because they felt it unnecessarily impinged their civil rights, you're going to have morons that think lockdown is over means a return to life as it was before, you're going to have people angry because the lockdown was ended at all when people are still dying and you're going to see all of these groups clashing and the result being a split nation when what's most and still needed is for everybody to be singing from the same sheet. Good luck getting near enough the required level of buy-in to a second lockdown when Joe Bloggs will be of the mind "the last one didn't work" or "just open the fecking pub man, they've been closed for months now and it's done no good".
 

redshaw

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I’m hearing a lot of smart people say that they may not be. If kids can play sports, go to school and hang out with grandparents I reckon most of society would handle “lockdown“ for as long as it takes.
https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadm...s-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf

Hanging out with grandparents could be a problem. Children just as infectious.

They would never close national parks like they have in the UK, or ban kids from going and playing outside,
Just to note there's many parks and other areas open in UK and people are encouraged to go out, kids play outside etc. Spain locked the kids in for 6 weeks.
 
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nimic

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There are only two logical reasons to go into lockdown -

1. to buy time until a vaccine or treatment is found and ready to go. Any country (I don't believe there are any) that entered lockdown for this reason would have been stupid and naive.

2. to flatten the curve if it's been estimated that there is a risk of medical services and resources being overrun by the virus
I think Norway very specifically went for #1 here. There was some early talk of flattening the curve, but that strategy was quickly discarded in favour of actually stopping the spread of the virus. And it's been largely successful. As the country is now being slowly re-opened the authorities expect there to be a slight increase which needs to be closely monitored, but there is no great uncontrolled spread of the virus in Norway right now.
 
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From what you say the Swedish approach is nowhere near as radically different as a lot of people think but if they let their kids play sports that’s something I could definitely get on board with. I really hope we get a scientific consensus soon about kids. Are they a significant transmission risk or not? I’m hearing a lot of smart people say that they may not be.
As it's 100% health ministry run here (no politics), they have a responsibility to consider the long term health downsides for the entire society with any decision they make. They are really against affecting children's sports as Sweden has spent a long time pushing for kids to remain in sports as long as possible, with many radical approaches to get there. They firmly believe that taking this away from kids could break sporting/athletic habits which has long term effects in every area of society.
And as I say, they believe the risk of spreading Covid-19 is so low that is would be wrong to deny children that opportunity.

You saw this today I guess? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52470838

If kids can play sports, go to school and hang out with grandparents I reckon most of society would handle “lockdown“ for as long as it takes.
Absolutely. I don't think anyone would get too upset here if they decided restaurants needed to close for a while, the majority are avoiding them anyway. Kids playing sports and going to school makes this so much easier, but the grandparent thing is still a kick in the nuts so I have to agree with you here, we could do the rest even without restaurants until next Summer, but the grandparent thing, how long can we really keep that up? :(
 

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The kids athletics is a sore one for me. My son is 11, plays for a good team and has been a joy to watch for the last year (after years freezing my arse off on the sidelines, watching absolute shite). Him not playing any football any more this year has killed me.

From what you say the Swedish approach is nowhere near as radically different as a lot of people think but if they let their kids play sports that’s something I could definitely get on board with. I really hope we get a scientific consensus soon about kids. Are they a significant transmission risk or not? I’m hearing a lot of smart people say that they may not be. If kids can play sports, go to school and hang out with grandparents I reckon most of society would handle “lockdown“ for as long as it takes.
As a coach I can say the time on the pitch is what keeping me sane in times like this. The players say the same.
Not only related to kids, but there was a danish report released recently that said there was minimal chance for infecting while playing football. Cant find it for the life of me now sadly.

This was only while playing, so we have cut out everything around. No meetings in the lockerroom, no Public, no handshakes, no gatherings after the match,ect ect.
And all senior football is canceled in Sweden.
 

Bullhitter

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I think Norway very specifically went for #1 here. There was some early talk of flattening the curve, but that strategy was quickly discarded in favour of actually stopping the spread of the virus. And it's been largely successful. As the country is now being slowly re-opened the authorities expect there to be a slight increase which needs to be closely monitored, but there is no great uncontrolled spread of the virus in Norway right now.
I don't think they went for #1 as I outlined but you're right I missed out another alternative motive which is to in effect cage the virus if it's deemed it can be contained to a level where you can then outrun it via isolation and tracing rather than it outrunning you.
 

Arruda

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@BootsyCollins

I'm sorry for the tone of my response, I wasn't even aware you were the one I had quoted in the first post. Your post just happened to be at hand, because it was an idea I was mad at, not you specifically. I used it as a frame for my thoughts, it wasn't my intention to seem personal.


@africanspur

There is no one I'm more pissed off at than other doctors (a specific subset of them), I've said this a few times in my previous posts. I only mentioned me being a doctor in relation to the discussions with my own family, because it wasn't so long ago that they were commending me for "predicting" stuff like the shutting down or chaos in ER services. Suddenly it seems I'm no longer qualified, they start arguing with me in the most inane of things because they've been spending time reading about this on facebook.

I do not think my "authority" comes from being a doctor, although our knowledge of the "right" basic sciences to comprehend this certainly helps a lot. I have imposed my "authority" when arguing with seasoned specialists simply because I know and they don't. What makes the difference in Covid-19 is how long you've been looking at it, and how long you've studied it yourself, because this thing, for most of us, is less than three months old. Curriculum matters nothing in this initial stage. The fact that I'm a member of redcafe makes more of a difference on my understanding of this than my basic qualifications. I was somewhat "lucky" to get ahead of the curve because of this thread, otherwise I, like most of my colleagues here, wouldn't have paid enough attention to Covid-19 until mid-March. It does help that until very recently I was probably one of the most unoccupied doctors in my country.

My biggest despair, is that there are random people in here or reddit, many of whom aren't even doctors or are just medical students, who happen to have a broader comprehension of Covid-19 (of course many stutter in some details) than actual Public Health specialists throughout the world. And I think this is what explains the poor answers in the west. At least the top Public Health guy in Portugal is completely oblivious in regards to this thing, but fortunately he has been ignored by the government. Am sorry if I'm very skeptical to the idea that the Swedish experts are really that much aware of they are doing.

That said, I completely agree that Swedes should not be put to blame for eventual copycats in other countries, nor should they change the policy they feel is right for their country because of other countries. If anything, the impression I get is that the more local your policies are, the more accurate they tend to be and the better the response to the problem becomes. I've been very near the top of the vigilance of this in Azores and I know every chain of transmission here by memory. This being a region with 9 islands of very different sizes, it's a great place to ascertain that. Initially we had one policy for the entire archipelago, which was an incredibly stupid thing. There are still 3 islands with zero cases, 4 islands where there aren't new cases for a month, and the other two seem good as well. It seems we'll never enter mitigation phase, containment is easy in smallish islands, which is a big relief. It makes sense for us to draw our own policies instead of following continental Portugal, which faces completely different scenarios.

I was "just" ranting. You're right I was very emotional about this in the beginning, because I was doing nothing and felt like banging my head on the wall. When I started working on this I became pragmatic and relieved, and barely posted here during that time. Now, after a pause - on which I tested negative - I'm changing places and going from vigilance to the ER, starting tomorrow, which is a place where I feel like a fish out of the water, given that my previous medical experience isn't suited to that kind of work at all (I was a pathology resident). That alone has made me more anxious these last few days, but fortunately I know I'll be working with the right people and will make myself useful quickly.
 

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We're now seriously considering home-schooling till December. I have no faith in decision makers. They are clearly itching to get kids back to school so that parents can go back to work.
 

BootsyCollins

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@BootsyCollins

I'm sorry for the tone of my response, I wasn't even aware you were the one I had quoted in the first post. Your post just happened to be at hand, because it was an idea I was mad at, not you specifically. I used it as a frame for my thoughts, it wasn't my intention to seem personal.


@africanspur

There is no one I'm more pissed off at than other doctors (a specific subset of them), I've said this a few times in my previous posts. I only mentioned me being a doctor in relation to the discussions with my own family, because it wasn't so long ago that they were commending me for "predicting" stuff like the shutting down or chaos in ER services. Suddenly it seems I'm no longer qualified, they start arguing with me in the most inane of things because they've been spending time reading about this on facebook.

I do not think my "authority" comes from being a doctor, although our knowledge of the "right" basic sciences to comprehend this certainly helps a lot. I have imposed my "authority" when arguing with seasoned specialists simply because I know and they don't. What makes the difference in Covid-19 is how long you've been looking at it, and how long you've studied it yourself, because this thing, for most of us, is less than three months old. Curriculum matters nothing in this initial stage. The fact that I'm a member of redcafe makes more of a difference on my understanding of this than my basic qualifications. I was somewhat "lucky" to get ahead of the curve because of this thread, otherwise I, like most of my colleagues here, wouldn't have paid enough attention to Covid-19 until mid-March. It does help that until very recently I was probably one of the most unoccupied doctors in my country.

My biggest despair, is that there are random people in here or reddit, many of whom aren't even doctors or are just medical students, who happen to have a broader comprehension of Covid-19 (of course many stutter in some details) than actual Public Health specialists throughout the world. And I think this is what explains the poor answers in the west. At least the top Public Health guy in Portugal is completely oblivious in regards to this thing, but fortunately he has been ignored by the government. Am sorry if I'm very skeptical to the idea that the Swedish experts are really that much aware of they are doing.

That said, I completely agree that Swedes should not be put to blame for eventual copycats in other countries, nor should they change the policy they feel is right for their country because of other countries. If anything, the impression I get is that the more local your policies are, the more accurate they tend to be and the better the response to the problem becomes. I've been very near the top of the vigilance of this in Azores and I know every chain of transmission here by memory. This being a region with 9 islands of very different sizes, it's a great place to ascertain that. Initially we had one policy for the entire archipelago, which was an incredibly stupid thing. There are still 3 islands with zero cases, 4 islands where there aren't new cases for a month, and the other two seem good as well. It seems we'll never enter mitigation phase, containment is easy in smallish islands, which is a big relief. It makes sense for us to draw our own policies instead of following continental Portugal, which faces completely different scenarios.

I was "just" ranting. You're right I was very emotional about this in the beginning, because I was doing nothing and felt like banging my head on the wall. When I started working on this I became pragmatic and relieved, and barely posted here during that time. Now, after a pause - on which I tested negative - I'm changing places and going from vigilance to the ER, starting tomorrow, which is a place where I feel like a fish out of the water, given that my previous medical experience isn't suited to that kind of work at all (I was a pathology resident). That alone has made me more anxious these last few days, but fortunately I know I'll be working with the right people and will make myself useful quickly.
All good.
Hope you stay safe, in both body and spirit.
 
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Are you saying Denmark didn't get a bunch of infected people coming home from ski trips? Because we did.
Nope, absolutely not @Maagge. I'm saying that Copenhagen, much like Gothenburg and Malmö, got a lot less infected people from that half term holiday than Stockholm, due to Denmark having sportlov (Vinterferie) on weeks 7-8, just like Malmö/GBG.

By week 9 when Stockholm went to the alps, the exponential growth in Italy was beyond all imagination.
 

spiriticon

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Austria, Swiss, Norway, Denmark, Finland, US States, Germany... everyone is moving to a “Swedish model” now anyway, just more slowly.
Soon enough all countries will be, because as I’ve argued all along, without a vaccine there is no other way.
Curve is flat in Sweden, I believe all of Europe can live with this virus and behave responsibly to keep the curves flat now we truly know how serious it is.

The “risk” Sweden took was believing their data showed them they wouldn’t get swamped in the first weeks, like NYC, Italy, Spain, Belgium or The UK, they are past that now.

Or of course, if a vaccine arrives in the next 2 months, Sweden’s approach may also look stupid. But that said, Gothenburg and Malmö are still proof that half term timing in Scandinavia’s biggest city was the biggest variable so far between all the Scandy cities, not the approach.
My comment was a joke, but regardless...

Sweden willingly let a large number of their country die as collaterals. I really have a big issue accepting that from any government. Yes, 2k+ deaths may not be a lot compared to the US/UK, but for Scandinavia it's a rather big number.

All the eggs are put in the 'long-term immunity' basket. This is unproven. If people get re-infected after a few months after having already had the virus, it really means you've thrown 2000 lives away to achieve nothing.

Eventually everyone will have to live with this virus, that's true. But its about caring for your population as much as it is keeping the economy afloat. Just because Joe Larsson is 70+ and not working anymore does not mean he has to be sacrificed.
 

redshaw

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With news coming out of Switzerland of kids don't spread the virus and grandparents can hug their grandchildren it could be important to read this and wait for more information.


Counterpart to the viral load study
 
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redshaw

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With news coming out of Switzerland of kids don't spread the virus and grandparents can hug their grandchildren it could be important to read this and wait for more information.