SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Vitro]

They haven’t unpicked those two factors yet. Not from what I’ve seen anyway. Apart from anything else, how do you explain the fact that almost all the dead doctors in the UK are BAME? Not exactly a profession known for its low socioeconomic status.

Well low socio economic status is one factor. Others could include working in the healthcare sector or working in a sector which continues to function during lockdown. Time will tell but I think the data points this way.

I would need more stats to back this up but I would hesitantly suggest that reasons for higher UK BAME deaths in doctors could be a higher representation of BAME in medicine compared to the general population:

https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/ch...ors-in-england-compared-with-total-population

and also potentially an even higher proportion of BAME doctors and nurses on the front lines compared to caucasian staff:

https://www.bma.org.uk/news-and-opinion/bame-doctors-hit-worse-by-lack-of-ppe

Of course there could be biological reasons behind this too relating to underlying conditions or genetic factors affecting pathogenicity but I would perhaps gamble on social factors playing a bigger role.

 

[noodlehair]

70 cases of COVID-19 at French schools days after re-opening

Just one week after a third of French children went back to school in an easing of the coronavirus lockdown, there’s been a worrying flareup of about 70 COVID-19 cases linked to schools

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/70-cases-covid-19-french-schools-days-opening-70740749

Is this a flare up?

Without knowing how many of those people you'd expect to be infected on average anyway it's a bit of a non statistic.

 

[Wolverine]

Big news as anybody over the age of 5 with covid symptoms in UK eligible for testing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52713..._spm0AZ-QsF0GwfMjf-3F5e0mNAb5xZj1ZzterMxhcDEA

 

[lynchie]

Is this a flare up?

Without knowing how many of those people you'd expect to be infected on average anyway it's a bit of a non statistic.

From the article - "Given that the incubation period for the virus is several days, people are “likely” to have been infected before the reopening of the schools, he said."

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Seems promising
https://investors.modernatx.com/new...ositive-interim-phase-1-data-its-mrna-vaccine

I was always fascinated by the novel mRNA technology for vaccinations

Sounds positive that they have seen serum antibiodies in serology that's comparable to those who have recovered from COVID. IM injection as well but seems to have a good safety profile.
Still though I think we need larger sample size, phase 2 to come and phase 3 by July and also demonstrable clinical efficacy with none of those patients who they've injected getting COVID. Annoyingly also can't see any details of how their control group did (did they even have a control group?)

Addendum: Can't see any mention of a control here https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461

Still though its promising

One of the more cynical responses I’ve seen to the way their press release phrased this is that the antibody response from recovered patients generally hasn’t been very dramatic or durable. So not a low bar for a vaccine to get over. It’s also a bit annoying when you’re relying on a press release for details rather than a preprint (see also Fauci talking about remdisivir)

Re the control group, phase I studies typically don’t have a control group. You’re trying to understand pharmacokinetics and tolerability. Any data on efficacy is a bonus.

 

[0le]

Big news as anybody over the age of 5 with covid symptoms in UK eligible for testing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52713..._spm0AZ-QsF0GwfMjf-3F5e0mNAb5xZj1ZzterMxhcDEA

More pertinent is probably the addition of new symptoms:

He was speaking in Parliament after the loss of taste or smell was added to the list of Covid-19 symptoms, alongside a fever and a new persistent cough.

 

[11101]

From the article - "Given that the incubation period for the virus is several days, people are “likely” to have been infected before the reopening of the schools, he said."

It is thought to be 5 days on average, it sounds like he's trying to cover his own arse for reopening the schools so quickly.

 

[Wolverine]

One of the more cynical responses I’ve seen to the way their press release phrased this is that the antibody response from recovered patients generally hasn’t been very dramatic or durable. So not a low bar for a vaccine to get over. It’s also a bit annoying when you’re relying on a press release for details rather than a preprint (see also Fauci talking about remdisivir)

Re the control group, phase I studies typically don’t have a control group. You’re trying to understand pharmacokinetics and tolerability. Any data on efficacy is a bonus.

Fair enough I know the oxford trial is using the MenACWY vaccine but you're right they're phase 2
Very weird to see how the stock markets always fall for these release and the stocks bump up so much. Interesting why they simply measured the antibody titres via serology and didn't mention anything about how many of their patients developed covid sx post-inoculation or whether any were hospitalised etc. Would have been easy to find out given the small sample and the fact that they were following them up for subsequent jabs too.
Could also have been nice to hear and correlate that to if their test subjects were in covid hotspots in the states which would have been a booster for efficacy claims?

 

[noodlehair]

There's so many stats and number flying round that aren't in any real context it's impossible to know what to be sure is and isn't reliable.

Especially when there are so many people with agendas trying to twist or cherry pick bits and pieces. I'm an aggressive ranty left winger but I'm sick to death of all the social media warriors and their theories about the tories sacrificing the working class or deliberately easing restrictions too soon, or causing deaths because of this and that. As if somehow the virus or effects of lockdown give a feck whether the government is right or left wing. Or somehow if we all voted Corbyn there might magically be less care homes now.

The politically charged whining about easing restrictions especially confuses me. One of the most left wing countries around is Sweden and they never went into lockdown in the first place!

Fair enough if someone is genuinely concerned about going to work, schools opening, etc.....but it's clearly not a political argument and maybe they should do some research and actually come to an informed point of view rather than just carrying on like a mini Piers Morgan. If people are not even concerned and are just using it as a political stick, as seems to be the case with a lot of people on twitter and facebook, they're basically just the same level of bellend who shares those "50,000 immigrants infiltrate our borders every day" type posts. They're just distorting the truth and if there does end up being a problem it'll be less likely to be taken seriously.

I despise the term ‘BAME’.

I just had to look up what it meant.

Is it actually a surprise that minorities are more affected? It just strikes me as the same as saying poor people are more affected. We already know enough about the differences between these groups to know that any kind of health or economic pandemic will hit them harder.

If there's something more specific about it then again at the moment there's too many figures being thrown around, and too little context to go with them to know anything for sure.

 

[noodlehair]

From the article - "Given that the incubation period for the virus is several days, people are “likely” to have been infected before the reopening of the schools, he said."

Well there you go. I mean closing them as a precaution does make sense but the misleading reporting and manipulating is really counter productive.

 

[Interval]

Seems promising
https://investors.modernatx.com/new...ositive-interim-phase-1-data-its-mrna-vaccine

I was always fascinated by the novel mRNA technology for vaccinations

Sounds positive that they have seen serum antibiodies in serology that's comparable to those who have recovered from COVID. IM injection as well but seems to have a good safety profile.
Still though I think we need larger sample size, phase 2 to come and phase 3 by July and also demonstrable clinical efficacy with none of those patients who they've injected getting COVID. Annoyingly also can't see any details of how their control group did (did they even have a control group?)

Addendum: Can't see any mention of a control here https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461

Still though its promising

One of the more cynical responses I’ve seen to the way their press release phrased this is that the antibody response from recovered patients generally hasn’t been very dramatic or durable. So not a low bar for a vaccine to get over. It’s also a bit annoying when you’re relying on a press release for details rather than a preprint (see also Fauci talking about remdisivir)

Re the control group, phase I studies typically don’t have a control group. You’re trying to understand pharmacokinetics and tolerability. Any data on efficacy is a bonus.

Appreciate the response, guys. Really good insights. Im involved in the stock markets and it's always a mess to get reliable critique on info like this

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Fair enough I know the oxford trial is using the MenACWY vaccine but you're right they're phase 2
Very weird to see how the stock markets always fall for these release and the stocks bump up so much Interesting why they simply measured the antibody titres via serology and didn't mention anything about how many of their patients developed covid sx post-inoculation or whether any were hospitalised etc. Would have been easy to find out given the small sample and the fact that they were following them up for subsequent jabs too.
Could also have been nice to hear and correlate that to if their test subjects were in covid hotspots in the states which would have been a booster for efficacy claims?

They do give a bit of detail on adverse events.
The only subjects getting systemic grade 3 AE’s (i.e. which could potentially have put them in hospital) were on a dose that was twice the highest dose going to Phase II.

The only grade 3 AE at any dose lower than that was an injection site reaction in one subject.

So, all in all, it looks pretty well tolerated. Very small numbers though. That’s what makes developing a vaccine so tough. You’re going to be dosing millions of people. So even a very rare (1 in 10000) side effect could be a disaster. And you can’t identify very rare side effects when you’re only dosing a few dozen test subjects.

 

[nimic]

Norwegian health authorities now estimate that only 0.5% of the population has had the disease. Herd immunity is obviously completely off the table as a strategy.

 

[Wolverine]

They do give a bit of detail on adverse events.
The only subjects getting systemic grade 3 AE’s (i.e. which could potentially have put them in hospital) were on a dose that was twice the highest dose going to Phase II.

The only grade 3 AE at any dose lower than that was an injection site reaction in one subject.

So, all in all, it looks pretty well tolerated. Very small numbers though. That’s what makes developing a vaccine so tough. You’re going to be dosing millions of people. So even a very rare (1 in 10000) side effect could be a disaster. And you can’t identify very rare side effects when you’re only dosing a few dozen test subjects.

Yeah from what I understand the three grade 3 patients reported s/e of transient fever, myalgia and headache but no real mention of how "unwell" those 3 were with it
I know the Hib/MenC is a bitch though, I reckon a bit more than "over 1 in 10" get fevers with it though, still have barely got the vomit stains of my carpet and yet we generally still recognise this as a safe vaccine etc

Also novel technology with regards to therpeutic always worries me more with regards to side effects (thinking of the Northwick Park Hospital drug debacle with Theralizumab) which is why I'm less scared of them mass testing the adenoviruses out more if we can establish efficacy of course as they've been used as vaccine vectors before and well-tolerated

 

[Maagge]

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Hardware shops opened in Ireland today. Looks like a lot of folk have been absolutely jonesing for a bag of nails and some 4x2.

A bit of a shame they haven't been open throughout with all the time people have had at home.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yeah from what I understand the three grade 3 patients reported s/e of transient fever, myalgia and headache but no real mention of how "unwell" those 3 were with it
I know the Hib/MenC is a bitch though, I reckon a bit more than "over 1 in 10" get fevers with it though, still have barely got the vomit stains of my carpet and yet we generally still recognise this as a safe vaccine etc

Also novel technology with regards to therpeutic always worries me more with regards to side effects (thinking of the Northwick Park Hospital drug debacle with Theralizumab) which is why I'm less scared of them mass testing the adenoviruses out more if we can establish efficacy of course as they've been used as vaccine vectors before and well-tolerated

Yeah, I’m with you on that. Rushing the approval of a novel technology for a small number of very sick patients is often a risk worth taking. Hard not to be worried about a similar approach which ends up dosing millions of healthy people. That’s why I’m hoping we find a solution based on ‘old school’ vaccine development.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I get that. And I can relate to it. But they’ve been waiting weeks for this. Another few days wait wouldn’t kill them. Whereas queuing up in a massive crowd to be the first people through the doors on Monday morning could literally do exactly that.

Easy for you to say, your kitchen door isn't creaking and waking you up when you go for a nap on the afternoon.

 

[rotherham_red]

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This might be unfair on the erstwhile academic, but feck me, we're well and truly fecked.

 

[Skills]

70 cases of COVID-19 at French schools days after re-opening

Just one week after a third of French children went back to school in an easing of the coronavirus lockdown, there’s been a worrying flareup of about 70 COVID-19 cases linked to schools

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/70-cases-covid-19-french-schools-days-opening-70740749

I think the only way you can open schools is with a real testing plan. I'd aim test all pupils every month, but staggered throughout the month.

Say you have a class of 30 and you test all 30 of them, one pupil per day. Then you pick up any outbreaks or clusters quite quickly, as soon as they start.

 

[Zexstream]

I think the only way you can open schools is with a real testing plan. I'd aim test all pupils every month, but staggered throughout the month.

Say you have a class of 30 and you test all 30 of them, one pupil per day. Then you pick up any outbreaks or clusters quite quickly, as soon as they start.

I think just ending the schools for this school year is the safest way. Just go back in August, a month earlier if it's safe to do so.

 

[madzo2007]

More measures lifted in N.Ireland starting tomorrow...

Groups of up to six people will be allowed to meet outdoors in Northern Ireland from Tuesday, so long as social distancing is in place.
Churches will be able to reopen for private prayer, and some sports such as golf can restart.
Drive-in cinemas will also be allowed to open

 

[arnie_ni]

More measures lifted in N.Ireland starting tomorrow...

Groups of up to six people will be allowed to meet outdoors in Northern Ireland from Tuesday, so long as social distancing is in place.
Churches will be able to reopen for private prayer, and some sports such as golf can restart.
Drive-in cinemas will also be allowed to open

Anything about seeing family members from another household?

My brother lives over an hour away, can he or myself or my parents travel that distance to meet outside?

 

[JPRouve]

I think the only way you can open schools is with a real testing plan. I'd aim test all pupils every month, but staggered throughout the month.

Say you have a class of 30 and you test all 30 of them, one pupil per day. Then you pick up any outbreaks or clusters quite quickly, as soon as they start.

That's one hell of an aim, in France that would be 12.3m tests per months just for schools.

 

[2cents]

Ireland:

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[madzo2007]

Anything about seeing family members from another household?

My brother lives over an hour away, can he or myself or my parents travel that distance to meet outside?

I’d guess if you met outdoors 2m apart and if there were no more than 6 people then you’d be ok

 

[cyberman]

Ireland:

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I know we have fluctuations but thats a great sight to see

 

[Zexstream]

Ireland:

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Call me cynical but how coincidental that the numbers dropped just as they wanted to move to phase 1 of restrictions being lifted. Either impeccable timing or very lucky...

 

[Massive Spanner]

Call me cynical but how coincidental that the numbers dropped just as they wanted to move to phase 1 of restrictions being lifted. Either impeccable timing or very lucky...

Don't worry, I wouldn't call you cynical. I'd call you something much worse.

 

[Zexstream]

Don't worry, I wouldn't call you cynical. I'd call you something much worse.

Its ok, i imagine you in the same way.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Call me cynical but how coincidental that the numbers dropped just as they wanted to move to phase 1 of restrictions being lifted. Either impeccable timing or very lucky...

These numbers just reflect a trend that’s been going on for weeks. The same trend that gave them the confidence to lift some restrictions.

My prediction is an ongoing big reduction in deaths over the next week or two. The average age of a case fell down a lot last week, after they finally sorted the care home crisis. This will have a big effect on mortality rate.

 

[sullydnl]

Call me cynical but how coincidental that the numbers dropped just as they wanted to move to phase 1 of restrictions being lifted. Either impeccable timing or very lucky...

Been trending that way for a while:

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[horsechoker]

99 dead in Italy and 451 new cases, the lowest numbers since the beginning of March.

It's 2 weeks since Italy started to lift some of it's restrictions and now they're lifting more, hopefully the number will continue to decrease while the country returns to a sort of normality.

 

[arnie_ni]

I’d guess if you met outdoors 2m apart and if there were no more than 6 people then you’d be ok

Did they ever relax the travel restriction though?

150ish mile round trip wouldnt have been allowed a couple of week ago

 

[cyberman]

Just read that only 2 died over the weekend in Ireland, the other 2 were in April.

 

[madzo2007]

Did they ever relax the travel restriction though?

150ish mile round trip wouldnt have been allowed a couple of week ago

Good point, I'm not sure

But theres no mention of travel restrictions on any of the Coming out of Lockdown Steps that were published last week

 

[arnie_ni]

Good point, I'm not sure

But theres no mention of travel restrictions on any of the Coming out of Lockdown Steps that were published last week

Maybe they've done away with it, thanks

 

[lynchie]

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This might be unfair on the erstwhile academic, but feck me, we're well and truly fecked.

I can see his difficulty. When random people start using well defined technical terms that they clearly don't understand, it can be difficult to respond fluently.

Also, from the way she's referring to herd immunity, the framing of the question is similar to "so did you stop beating your wife?". Impossible to answer with a straightforward yes or no without falling into a trap.

 

[Garethw]

All I’ve seen today on Facebook is people talking about having “social distancing” picnics with their parents and families.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

All I’ve seen today on Facebook is people talking about having “social distancing” picnics with their parents and families.

It's irritating because it's the go to defense. "Don't worry we were social distancing". It's like prodding a rabid dog in the balls and say "don't worry, I was wearing a hat for protection so what I did was fine".

 

[berbatrick]

It's irritating because it's the go to defense. "Don't worry we were social distancing". It's like prodding a rabid dog in the balls and say "don't worry, I was wearing a hat for protection so what I did was fine".

they should be beaten to death with a stick