Not necessarily. Lockdown followed by relaxation of constraints (with maybe another lockdown in a few months when things get worse). A bit like China and South Korea are doing.So no possibility of a positive outcome...
Not necessarily. Lockdown followed by relaxation of constraints (with maybe another lockdown in a few months when things get worse). A bit like China and South Korea are doing.So no possibility of a positive outcome...
I don't know why you insist on this. South Korea and China are having double-digit new cases and single-digit new deaths per day. In each of them, there isn't even a lockdown (except in Wuhan that now is almost being lifted). S. Korea didn't have a lockdown at all.We can't cage the wind, unfortunately. Which isn't to say we should stop trying. But we're ultimately going to lose.
You haven’t included potentially asymtomatic cases in this, or indeed the percentage population that have already had the disease.Some back-of-a-fag-packet maths:
The UK started lockdown on Tuesday 24 March.
If you assume that there's a 14 day lag for new measures to be reflected in reality and that the number of cases will keep rising by about 30% per day, the peak for positive test results would be on 11 April.
Since the incubation period is about 2 weeks, hospitals could then be under the most strain on around 25 April.
If the lockdown is successful and the cases rate increase then drops to 15% per day, it'll take till around 26 April to reach the numbers required for herd immunity (regardless of whether that's the aim or not, and assuming the real cases are 20 times as numerous as tested cases). Then another 2 weeks before those people can all leave self-isolation. So the UK could potentially begin to lift measures on 10 May.
If the country can somehow keep it together for 7 weeks, the nationwide crisis could be over as soon as then. Unfortunately, we'd be looking at over 1 million dead (assuming a 2% CFR, plus all those who can't get treated because of the NHS being over capacity). That's absolutely horrific, but I'm not sure if there's any way around it given what's happened up until now.
Any reason for the 2% CFR?Some back-of-a-fag-packet maths:
The UK started lockdown on Tuesday 24 March.
If you assume that there's a 14 day lag for new measures to be reflected in reality and that the number of cases will keep rising by about 30% per day, the peak for positive test results would be on 11 April.
Since the incubation period is about 2 weeks, hospitals could then be under the most strain on around 25 April.
If the lockdown is successful and the cases rate increase then drops to 15% per day, it'll take till around 26 April to reach the numbers required for herd immunity (regardless of whether that's the aim or not, and assuming the real cases are 20 times as numerous as tested cases). Then another 2 weeks before those people can all leave self-isolation. So the UK could potentially begin to lift measures on 10 May.
If the country can somehow keep it together for 7 weeks, the nationwide crisis could be over as soon as then. Unfortunately, we'd be looking at over 1 million dead (assuming a 2% CFR, plus all those who can't get treated because of the NHS being over capacity). That's absolutely horrific, but I'm not sure if there's any way around it given what's happened up until now.
A low estimate for the number of cases in the UK is 300,000 (which is about 20 times the number of positive test results). Those 300,000 are spread out over the entire country.I don't know why you insist on this. South Korea and China are having double-digit new cases and single-digit new deaths per day. In each of them, there isn't even a lockdown (except in Wuhan that now is almost being lifted). S. Korea didn't have a lockdown at all.
Why we should not try to emulate them, instead of accepting that millions are going to die?
So 2 reasons why. I'm in USA but same applies UK or US.I don't know why you insist on this. South Korea and China are having double-digit new cases and single-digit new deaths per day. In each of them, there isn't even a lockdown (except in Wuhan that now is almost being lifted). S. Korea didn't have a lockdown at all.
Why we should not try to emulate them, instead of accepting that millions are going to die?
2% is the widely reported estimate for the CFR.Any reason for the 2% CFR?
Also, surely after a week or two lockdown, 30% per day new cases will be very high?
I'm not sure UK and USA are comparable. We have a nationwide lockdown here in Britain which is being mostly very well observed. The government is demanding we stay at home, and on the whole, this is being followed in a very conformist manner.So 2 reasons why. I'm in USA but same applies UK or US.
We and you are too far ahead in transmission now. It's all in community. So identifying and isolating cases is not feasible in these numbers. Might as well general lockdown.
Even in the beginning their level of isolating identified cases would not be tolerated in either country imo. For example I know in S. Korea they used GPS to ensure isolation and monitor the quarantined people. That level of privacy invasion is difficult here or UK.
That's my take on it. Has been that way for a while.
Equally, the whole optimism with large undetected asymptomatic cases is strange and unsupported by vast majority of studies (estimates say it's around 20%). Moreover, people have rallied behind South Korea's numbers when they were low and now that they have risen people have switched to Germany. False optimism is dangerous as it can lead to reckless behaviour and to people not taking the proper precautions.You haven’t included potentially asymtomatic cases in this, or indeed the percentage population that have already had the disease.
South Korea and Germany have tested widely and the percentage is between 0.4 and 1.4%, and that is without testing the entire population.
There is no way a million people will die in the U.K.
As for second and third waves, the comparisons with things like the Spanish flu don’t have any bearing in 2020.
Almost every country will be more readily prepared for a second or third wave. This won’t just come in and devastate again in the same way.
Lessons will have to be learned for the future and thousands will die, but I really feel people are making calculations and statements in this thread that are overly pessimistic and outlandish. Probably because we are scared.
But try and be more realistic and remember those who are more tense and afraid that are reading this thread.
There are reasons to be positive and we should include those in our speculations on death figures and the danger of the virus.
300k low estimate is if you do nothing. Like, treat this like the flu, pretend that it doesn't exist and continue with life. It also does not count that the number of ventilators and ICU beds is gonna significantly increase (for example, if one ventilator can get converted to 4, that is 4 times as many ventilators without buying any). And finally, it doesn't take into account the real possibility that there is a very large number of asymptotic cases, which at this stage is virtually certain.A low estimate for the number of cases in the UK is 300,000 (which is about 20 times the number of positive test results). Those 300,000 are spread out over the entire country.
What China and S Korea did was contain an identifiably limited number of cases. We simply don't have that luxury right now.
It's like the difference between one small bush fire in one corner of the wilderness, and hundreds of bush fires spread out over the whole landscape. China and S Korea dealt with the former fantastically well. The UK is metaphorically dealing with the latter at the moment and can no longer realistically contain the situation. The best we can do is delay the inevitable.
I am in US too.So 2 reasons why. I'm in USA but same applies UK or US.
We and you are too far ahead in transmission now. It's all in community. So identifying and isolating cases is not feasible in these numbers. Might as well general lockdown.
Even in the beginning their level of isolating identified cases would not be tolerated in either country imo. For example I know in S. Korea they used GPS to ensure isolation and monitor the quarantined people. That level of privacy invasion is difficult here or UK.
That's my take on it. Has been that way for a while.
That's what the 300k refers to.300k low estimate is if you do nothing. Like, treat this like the flu, pretend that it doesn't exist and continue with life. It also does not count that the number of ventilators and ICU beds is gonna significantly increase (for example, if one ventilator can get converted to 4, that is 4 times as many ventilators without buying any). And finally, it doesn't take into account the real possibility that there is a very large number of asymptotic cases, which at this stage is virtually certain.
It depends on where in the USA. In California (at least in my county) almost everything is closed, and there is a lockdown which people are apparently respecting. There are many states in the US that have still not that many cases.I'm not sure UK and USA are comparable. We have a nationwide lockdown here in Britain which is being mostly very well observed. The government is demanding we stay at home, and on the whole, this is being followed in a very conformist manner.
In America, the government is actively encouraging people to get back to work as soon as possible. I know people in Florida who are still working, still largely unaware of the thread, I know a woman in NY (the worst hit state of them all) who is still working her office job, relying only on the desks being spaced 6ft apart.
The key difference I think is Trump. He doesn't want to acknowledge the scale of the problem, even the face of the fact that America is now the most affected country in the world.
Here, the government are at least now enforcing quite robust and Draconian measures to ensure compliance.
Norwegian health officials, at least, are very confident the real CFR will be below 1%, and probably comfortably so.2% is the widely reported estimate for the CFR.
I adjusted the growth rate to 15% after the lockdown.
It depends on how many of them are really asymptotic. If there are 10 or so sick people (with no symptoms or very mild symptoms) for every documented official case, then there is no worst-case scenario that put the number of deaths to 300k.That's what the 300k refers to.
This is certain. The mortality rate in Germany is 0.6%, while in UK is 5% and in Italy is over 10%. The main difference between these tthree countries is not that Germany likes beer, Italy likes wine and UK likes tea, but that Germany is doing more testings. All countries with a high number of testings (per capita) are essentially reporting a mortality rate of below 1%. And this is an overestimate considering that unless they are testing every citizen (which they are not), there are infected people who do not get a test. Heck, in Germany and the US despite doing tests like crazy, it is extremely hard to get a test unless you are really sick (or you are very rich). The majority of infected people with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all are not getting tested, and so the mortality rate is inflated.Norwegian health officials, at least, are very confident the real CFR will be below 1%, and probably comfortably so.
You're assigning 3% CFR to the 10% percent with non-mild symptoms when the CFR for all cases is estimated to be closer to that. Also note that many estimates for the asymptomatic proportion don't account for the subset of those who later on tend to develop symptoms. One of the first estimates was the Diamond Princess study which found that 50% were asymptomatic. However, they later had revise this as then more than half the asymptomatic proportion went on to develop symptoms, which aligns with what many models are saying (different studies from 17% to 31%).Assume 50% being infected within the year (Dr. Byrx in the US says that this can happen on 3 seasons, not in one) that means 32 million infections. 90% of them asymptotic (or mild symptoms) put the number of infected to 3.2 million. From these, a conservative 3% mortality rate, would put the number of fatalities to around 100k.
Sure, the info is found at www.gov.uk/affluentandlikemindedindividualsAgain, please show me instructions from our Government where Im asked to quarantine!
is this supposed to be one of those pathetic TRUTH posts because some people are reacting differently to you?There's a lot of people here going to be depressed when the virus eventually disappears. You'll have nothing to moan, whinge and doom monger about. Putting the shits up people seems to be exciting to a lot of people, without even having a clue about anything, just what they've read. Heads full of cartoons fantasizing about a walking dead type scenario ffs.
Watched a programme the other night, well, half watched it, Mrs had it on. All they went on about was negative and worst case scenarios, like ridiculous worst case scenarios. Bad news is news. Good news isn't profitable so they gloss over anything half positive.
While I'm having a moan about this, I'll have a little moan about everyone saying "this is why we needed to fund the NHS more previously" ... No, we needed to stop people taking the piss out the NHS, drug users, obesity, them people who goto the docs for every single cough, parents taking kids for a sneeze. More funding would have been great, but a massive factor is abuse of the system. People getting free boob jobs cos they're depressed and stuff man. That's wrong.
Putting strain on a system/service supposed to be used for good, for ridiculous reasons, obesity man, just stop eating like fecking whales.
I am assigning CFR based on the current documented CRFs (not estimates). For example, Germany has a 0.6 documented mortality rate (which is an upper bound on the real mortality rate).You're assigning 3% CFR to the 10% percent with non-mild symptoms when the CFR for all cases is estimated to be closer to that. Also note that many estimates for the asymptotic proportion don't account for the subset of those who later on tend to develop symptoms. One of the first estimates was the Diamond Princess which found that 50% were asymptotic. However, they later had revise this as then more than half the asymptotic proportion went on to develop symptoms, which aligns with what many models are saying (different studies from 17% to 31%).
I addressed the CFR in a different post further up this page.Norwegian health officials, at least, are very confident the real CFR will be below 1%, and probably comfortably so.
Glad you had time for your little telly show. In the real world however, health service workers are witnessing terrible things and getting worse.There's a lot of people here going to be depressed when the virus eventually disappears. You'll have nothing to moan, whinge and doom monger about. Putting the shits up people seems to be exciting to a lot of people, without even having a clue about anything, just what they've read. Heads full of cartoons fantasizing about a walking dead type scenario ffs.
Watched a programme the other night, well, half watched it, Mrs had it on. All they went on about was negative and worst case scenarios, like ridiculous worst case scenarios. Bad news is news. Good news isn't profitable so they gloss over anything half positive.
While I'm having a moan about this, I'll have a little moan about everyone saying "this is why we needed to fund the NHS more previously" ... No, we needed to stop people taking the piss out the NHS, drug users, obesity, them people who goto the docs for every single cough, parents taking kids for a sneeze. More funding would have been great, but a massive factor is abuse of the system. People getting free boob jobs cos they're depressed and stuff man. That's wrong.
Putting strain on a system/service supposed to be used for good, for ridiculous reasons, obesity man, just stop eating like fecking whales.
Well, you essentially used worst-case scenario for infections (again, it is likely that can happen within 3 seasons, not 1), highest mentioned mortality rate, assumed no restriction whatsoever, that social distancing and better hygiene will just not work at all, assumed doing nothing to increase the number of beds/ventilators, assumed that no drug that is on trial is gonna help, assumed that there are no silent cases, and then you came with your numbers.I addressed the CFR in a different post further up this page.
The numbers I used in my earlier post were based on widely accepted/reported figures.
I could have obviously chosen to editorialise, but I was trying hard to be dispassionate. That's also why I couched every assumption in ifs, buts and maybes.
Hopefully the lower Norwegian estimates come true. If they do, I'll happily revise the maths.
You're saying the true CFR is 0.3%? Nothing I've read says that. I'd love to read the source.I am assigning CFR based on the current documented CRFs (not estimates).
I am just making some conjecture. In Germany it is 0.6%. It just cannot be higher than that, considering that if that was the case, then it would have been higher than that. It is extremely likely that it is lower than that (last time I checked, they did not test everyone). In Norway, it actually 0.4%. In South Korea and US is somewhere below 1.5%. In Bahrain it is 0.9%.You're saying the true CFR is 0.3%? Nothing I've read says that. I'd love to read the source.
I addressed the inaccuracies of the CFR figure in a post further up this page.Well, you essentially used worst-case scenario for infections (again, it is likely that can happen within 3 seasons, not 1), highest mentioned mortality rate, assumed no restriction whatsoever, that social distancing and better hygiene will just not work at all, assumed doing nothing to increase the number of beds/ventilators, assumed that no drug that is on trial is gonna help, assumed that there are no silent cases, and then you came with your numbers.
I mean it is possible for this to happen. It is just extremely unlikely (as unlikely as the best scenario that 50% of people are already infected).
That is true. All my assumptions on CFR are based on a medical system that is still functional. Otherwise, CFR is as high as the number of people who need a ventilator but cannot get on.I don't have time to respond to all posts. So sorry about that.
Forget CFR.
Where I am we have around say 50 vents. Our models suggest 150 to 250 cases needing vents over 1-2 months. You do the math.
The sheer numbers are going to overwhelm hospital systems all over like how it is happening right now in NYC.
Another reason to ignore CFR. If you get real sick from it, there is not much we can do. Even if the vast majority are ok, if you are unlucky, can't do anything really.
These numbers are changing. South Korea rate was exactly the same as Germany a week ago at 0.6%. It's possible that Germany will take the same trajectory. It makes more sense to go by the CFR estimated in published papers by researchers and experts studying this rather than ball-parking our own to be honest.I am just making some conjecture. In Germany it is 0.6%. It just cannot be higher than that, considering that if that was the case, then it would have been higher than that. It is extremely likely that it is lower than that (last time I checked, they did not test everyone). In Norway, it actually 0.4%. In South Korea and US is somewhere below 1.5%. In Bahrain it is 0.9%.
Everyone is looking into it. There is 0 data on it.That is true. All my assumptions on CFR are based on a medical system that is still functional. Otherwise, CFR is as high as the number of people who need a ventilator but cannot get on.
Are there any attempts in your hospital to use a ventilator for multiple people. In Italy apparently they are using 1 ventilator for 2 people, and in NYC they are experimenting with using 1 ventilator for 4 people.
Finally, kudos to you for your job and stay safe!
Sure, I am just speculating. Obviously, the models should be based on real data and published papers. If I was a president who make decisions, I would try to be as cautious as possible and base the decisions on published papers. No harm in being over-cautious, and the models will be always over-cautious.These numbers are changing. South Korea rate was exactly the same as Germany a week ago at 0.6%. It's possible that Germany will take the same trajectory. It makes more sense to go by the CFR estimated in published papers by researchers and experts studying this rather than ball-parking our own to be honest.
15k new cases in the US today and they're now up to 100k. Feels like they've completely lost control of it.
“Deep state conspiracy” is what I keep seeing on social media.Losing control would imply that there was any control to begin with. We’re being lead by a malignant narcissist megalomaniac who is absolutely clueless. What’s worse there is still a fairly large Amount of people in the U.S. that think either it’s a hoax to ruin Trumps election campaign, or it’s just the flu because they don’t have it.