It's the idiocy of their anti-science excuse of a president and on top people in the US literally can't afford not working due to their virtually complete lack of social security.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Only citizens and permanent residents are allowed in, with compulsory 14 day quarantine under police guard, and almost nobody is allowed to leave although there are a very few exemptions.
A work colleague's ex-father in law died in Japan last week and although his ex-wife (a joint Japanese Australian citizen) was allowed to go to the funeral their daughter was refused permission to go to the funeral.
On the quarantine front one person sneaked out twice, got caught and was given a prison sentence.
I do wonder if this will be one of the measures the UK ends up walking back...Texas Governor said:
Thanks! Quarantines obviously make sense and I support them. But refusing someone to leave their own country seems hugely problematic to me in multiple of ways.
The measures he describes would be unthinkable in a European country. Which is why I think eradication was never an option unless EVERY country in the region used the same strategy.
Why? Especially a minor as you couldn't refuse a minor citizen re-entry.
Yup, too many social relationships in Europe that can't be put on hold for over a year. Keeping it at really low manageable level should work just as fine, almost.
Why is there even a need if they are put to quarantine once they come back? There are people coming and going out of Australia all the time for business, so I doubt total eradiction is going to happen anyway (if I define eradiction in a way that there are 0 cases for 60 consecutive days). Just keeping it at <100 cases per day would be quite the same.
That’s the dream. Which is why it’s a complete nightmare living next door to a country that looks like that was never their goal. Something you and I can both relate to.
Pogue, have you rewound your brain a month?
You said all this about NZ 4-6 weeks ago and I got in a tizzy over it.
Then you came back around to Eradication as being the only strategy. Has your pendulum swung again?
NZ is just fine. Kiwi life has gone back to normal, their economy is in good shape, their Agri exports are going up and are record setting, small outbreaks are being stomped on and lessons learned. They picked the best route and they’re one of very few countries that are thriving. The Tourism conundrum is challenging but the whole world is happy to fly there right now so it’s a problem that they full control.
I apologise if the above was just written to frame a response to Sweden criticism... but even if so, locking down for a couple of months, saving as many lives as possible, then analysing next steps was always going to be the best bet.
It appears to be rapid spreading via bars, restaurants, parties, etc. in states that opened up. In Cali, they were never hit very hard (relatively speaking) in the first place so perhaps it was just a numbers game until it blew up due to their huge population once they relaxed measures. They have traced several clusters simply to belated graduation parties and family gatherings.
Texas and Florida have governors who serve at the behest of Donald and were gung-ho about opening up, notably including bars and indoor dining. Greater movement between communities naturally resulting from normal business resuming also ensured increasingly efficient spread to less urban areas scattered across their states.
Nah, its more subtle than Excuses for Tossers.
If I walk out of a pub and see a big no smoking sign, I’ll walk 20m away.
If the next time I walk out of the pub there are 12 people in Durham cricket tops having a fag next to the sign, I’m not walking anywhere.
Small trigger points have big impacts.
Ironically that’s literally the job of The Nudge Unit. Find the small things that make huge differences. It’s this team that Cummings et al have been using to design messaging.
That specific post was addressing the idea that Sweden took a conscious decision to let old people die, in order to prop up the economy. Which is grossly unfair. And obviously wrong. Their strategy will probably turn out to be a mistake but if we’re unable to develop a safe effective vaccine (which I think is a realistic possibility @Wibble is in complete denial about) then it will look like a stroke of genius. It’s obviously a huge gamble but sometimes gambles pay off. And, at the very least, it was well intentioned.
My personal opinion on the ideal strategy flip flops a lot. I think eradication is probably the best option for countries that can function well in isolation from most of the rest of the world. So I’ve basically given up on it as an approach in Ireland. We need to operate between the two extremes and as part of network of countries that can’t possibly restrict freedom of movement the way Aus/NZ seem willing to accept. The downside is living with social distancing - which sucks - but the upside is a gradual, ongoing exposure of the European population to the virus which will take the edge off future outbreaks.
At the end of the day, we’re at least a year or two away from having the perspective to judge what strategy has the best long term outcome. So it bugs me when I see people talking with absolute certainty about what could/should have been done.
I don’t think you realise just how cruisy NZ is mate. We are all so consumed by this shit. They’re not. They’re mostly done.
No social distancing, travelling around to some of the most beautiful spots in the world, large gatherings, families together.
Yes it sucks to not be able to fly loved ones in and out without quarantines, but that’s still an option. (Now military ran due to small errors recently)
We absolutely can say that what they did was correct, and it’s not even close.
They have a death toll of 22 people. If, in a years time the world is still on fire, and that number is still under 50, they can still move forward.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility to imagine a scenario where they are somewhere close to the ‘Chicken Pox Party’ scenario that was touted early on. It’s a little pie in the Sky, but their government will have built enough public confidence to ask those over 60 to shield from harm as younger block sections of society are introduced to build immunity.
It sounds utterly ridiculous. But only because nobody had the chance to do it. But if you started with a blank sheet of paper with none of this having happened, you’d be able to make some very sensible decisions that reduced harm and death to tiny numbers.
There is absolutely no valid reason to suggest lesser restrictions and more death would have been a worthy trade off to achieve a larger number of infected-recovered. None. It wouldn’t have achieved anything.
Now realise that I meandered always from your post quite a bit there. Then hit the gas pedal.
There’s no question I’d rather be where NZ is right now. My only question is whether I’d want to be in their shoes in a year or two’s time if the vaccines keep failing and the virus is endemic everywhere else. Chicken pox parties are a non-starter. There’s not a government on the planet that would want to walk into the moral/ethical minefield of deliberately infecting citizens with a potentially lethal virus.
Anyway, my basic point is that eradication is clearly the best policy. Providing EVERYONE follows that same policy. If the world has acted as one the fecking virus could be on its last legs already. And a footnote in history by the end of summer. How amazing would that be?! Unfortunately we’re surrounded by bad actors and politically motivated decisions that aren’t based on science. So that’s the world we’re operating in. Which is crap but there you go. And in this crappy scenario I wonder if countries like Sweden might have a better long term outcome. Time will tell.
Last edited:
I read in here earlier about how people who know a lot about this disease (e.g. some on this thread) are in a minority when you consider wider society and their behaviours are more explained by ignorance and not malice.
Couldn't agree more. I don't know anybody else in my large south asian family that has followed daily briefings. They know vaguely about lockdown measures and not visiting etc but treat the easing of the rules as us essentially having overcome it or it not being a huge problem.
Initially I thought it was a cultural/language barrier but even the well-educated, fluent english speaking members of my family essentially haven't had much of a clue. What I do hear a lot of the family say is that they took it seriously when they knew of a loved one dying or being affected, and weirdly Boris being sick from it was an eye opener from a lot of them too.
I did take it upon myself to individually contact people who I knew would be clinically vulnerable and had lengthy conversations and the usual family visitors they get and put my foot down after many were blatantly defying or being loose with restrictions . Over Eid I explained to more of them about the need for precautions. A lot of whom I speak to regarding the extent of the problem still are genuinely shocked and asking if it were this bad (or potentially still a huge problem) still why is lockdown being eased which suggests that I think we've unfortunately failed to reach a mass audience with our messaging, whatever the reason for that failure might be.
Couldn't agree more. I don't know anybody else in my large south asian family that has followed daily briefings. They know vaguely about lockdown measures and not visiting etc but treat the easing of the rules as us essentially having overcome it or it not being a huge problem.
Initially I thought it was a cultural/language barrier but even the well-educated, fluent english speaking members of my family essentially haven't had much of a clue. What I do hear a lot of the family say is that they took it seriously when they knew of a loved one dying or being affected, and weirdly Boris being sick from it was an eye opener from a lot of them too.
I did take it upon myself to individually contact people who I knew would be clinically vulnerable and had lengthy conversations and the usual family visitors they get and put my foot down after many were blatantly defying or being loose with restrictions . Over Eid I explained to more of them about the need for precautions. A lot of whom I speak to regarding the extent of the problem still are genuinely shocked and asking if it were this bad (or potentially still a huge problem) still why is lockdown being eased which suggests that I think we've unfortunately failed to reach a mass audience with our messaging, whatever the reason for that failure might be.
Almost all countries took an extreme measure of stay-at-home orders resulting in falling infection rates. That isn't a sustainable strategy as the economy needs to get moving -- the real test of how infectious the virus continues to be will be the next 3 months as it actively spreads in (likely) partially open economies everywhere. That is what is happening in the US. There aren't any countries which have a coherent strategy yet that is reproducible - perhaps China do, to an extent, to control infection rates.
For poorer countries, like ours, I think we're in trouble. Chennai is a good example -- the virus arrived here earlier than than some of the other cities and the way it is playing out is alarming. It's just a preview for what'll happen in the other cities in India in days/months to come. The combination of poor policy making, weak healthcare infra, low testing, high population density is a horror recipe, and this is the case in every place in India.
Okay maybe in that sense but in terms of what the British Citizens had to give up it was very much a lockdown.
I think you focus too much on a vaccine. Didn't the English government approve a treatment that reduces the mortality rate significantly for NHS use just last week? I think the chances of us never finding a vaccine are rather slim anyway but even if countries have to go for herd immunity by infecting people I'd rather do that with a treatment available.
I didn’t literally mean an actually party with intention to get sick. Just that a government with sub 30 deaths could have age-gated lockdowns and/or restrictions.
If I was in NZ, I’d happily go back to normal life and wear more risk. I’m being responsible now for my mother, father and the vulnerable.
Data, testing and transparency are what will see countries succeed on management. I’m talking of large scale, intensive testing. Constant.
In several months of management you’d have data on rates of transmission for Sports events, cinemas, pubs.
As an example, I could conceive of anyone over 60 being banned from gatherings of more than 10 inside, for two years. It’s not that big a deal. Not nice, but workable as part of an actual plan.
You could get very surgical on how you let people contract* an illness on the way to herd immunity. We pretend there’s no measures way. But we’re literally using guesswork and antagonism right now. It’s stupid.
I absolutely agree with you that no government can deliberately make people sick. But to pretend that they’re not doing that by another name already is silly.
People did not need to die by the hundreds or thousands every day. People talk of Johnson and Hancock losing their jobs. They deserve jail time. That they’ve controlled a narrative to make people immune to 60,000 people dying is astonishing.
(*~ Contract naturally through operating at a higher risk level, not deliberately)
With almost 500,000 recorded deaths (the true figure must be significantly higher) and the daily new cases line nearly vertical, the stupidity of large numbers of people is mesmerising in the extreme.
And I blame at the government for completely mismanaging the message to their public.
Behavioural scientists have been saying that the dimwits amongst us need a very clear and simple message.
I mean. What does Stay Alert really mean.
What was wrong with Stay Safe?
And I blame at the government for completely mismanaging the message to their public.
Behavioural scientists have been saying that the dimwits amongst us need a very clear and simple message.
I mean. What does Stay Alert really mean.
What was wrong with Stay Safe?
They changed the slogan in advance of Cumming's antics becoming news. 'Stay Wherever The F*ck You Want' didn't cut it.
Remind me to check around that period of time, things may change in a few weeks.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
about 116 less in total over last week
I agree with this. I think some people are waay too quick to jump on decisions made and attach agency to them that was clearly never there. I don't think Sweden had any conscious decision to let old people die, nor in fact do the Tories, who, as much as I hate them, have become a genuine caricature to some on here. I think the UK and, to a lesser extent, Sweden have taken the wrong route but I don't agree that we can make definitive calls on who has made good or bad calls so far. And I agree with you that it will be a while until we can make a totally definitive decision.
NZ have losses (just as all countries will in fairness). We have a member of the extended family who is a Kiwi farmer and last we spoke, he was having to seriously consider a slaughter of much of his cow herd due to the economic impact. And we're talking about long long term impacts. 5-10 years. If Australia/ NZ's policy for that period of time is total eradication and essentially cutting themselves off from the rest of the world other than each other.....I mean of course they'll live and many people will still live a reasonable quality of life. But you're kind of hoping that either we get a vaccine or the rest of the world gets to a similar level of control. Otherwise when it comes to business (even ignoring tourism for a second), you're banning business travel, even putting aside tourism, from the EU, USA, UK, Japan, China, Korea, India, Singapore indefinitely?
Hmmm. Stay alert replaced Stay at home. Kindly explain how your stay safe is any less ambiguous than BoJos stay alert. Christ I know this is a left wing forum but from the majority of posts you would reckon that only Britain in the European theatre has made a balls up. It’s almost as if Spain, Italy, France and the Netherlands and Sweden exist in a separate dimension of the Universe with wonderful clued up politicians.
And forgive me for being a cynic for harbouring more than a sneaking suspicion that the stampede by Italy, France and Spain to welcome tourists from almost anywhere is being driven almost exclusively by the desire to get economies moving rather than having the pandemic under control and Stupidly IMHO our daft lot are following.
I am interested in why the Kiwi farmer is talking about having to consider slaughtering his cow herd because of economic impacts? We have literally seen our beef exports have a huge jump in exports and also our dairy exports in the last 2 months. Farmers here are at full pace. I seriously doubt what you have been told. Also there is no complete business travel ban. People are coming in to NZ on business trips from selected countries with an ever increasing list of countries. There are restrictions that have to be met. Tests in the country of origin before leaving for NZ and then tests and 14 day quarantine once here. Japan has that access in place now for business related travel here. I know its restrictive but its not a blanket ban. People seem to be talking about absolutes. Elimination of the virus doesnt mean cutting ourself off from the rest of the world. Our exports are in full swing.
Only 8 deaths in Italy
That's a confusing take. In France the pandemic is currently under control, the lockdown hasn't been stopped before it. Now of course the country isn't going to preemptively stay in lockdown forever because it's economically not feasible but your point makes little sense. Which doesn't take away the fact that in general french politicians are feckwits and definitely no better than their UK equivalents.
I can't stand the Tories to the point I wouldn't vote for them if they made Angel Gabriel leader but I think some people are so far gone in the "they must be wrong no matter what" they create problems that aren't there.
It made me laugh a few weeks ago when there was a clamour to release the scientific details towards decisions, this is a nation that couldn't properly grasp "you can create a two household bubble aslong as one of the households is a lone occupant" and people think they'll be able to get their heads around scientific data....
I have no idea. I'm not a farmer. I also have no idea why he'd lie, he voted for the labour party, is voting for them again next election and thinks Ardern has done a great job. The whole context of the conversation was how great a job Australia and NZ had done compared to Europe and the USA. We don't speak often but next time we do, I'll ask him what led to those circumstances. The conversation itself was also well over a month ago so things may have changed a lot for him since.
I'd be interested in how, considering what most business travel is like, business travellers are coming to NZ if they have to quarantine for 2 weeks on arrival? Regardless though, I didn't know that they had already restarted some business flights and am glad to hear that.
I don't think Australia or NZ are cutting themselves off totally from the world. Of course imports and exports will still carry on, regardless of whatever else is going on. But my point is that the movement of peoples has essentially come to a standstill. Makes total sense in the middle of a global pandemic of course but may prove a more difficult proposition if the virus continues for a prolonged period with no real vaccine or effective treatment.
Again, as amazing a job as NZ and Australia have done so far.
Last edited:
I think stay safe doesn't need to be explained.
Stay alert means nothing.
There is one thing we do know is coming and that is our 2nd quarter financial results will be the worst in our history because that is the period in which the strongest lockdown happened. So we are in for some tough news on the economy in the next week or two. I think those numbers will be pretty sobering.
Stay safe would be impressive as possibly the only more pointless advice than stay alert.
Well the consensus on this forum is that the U.K. is making a right cockup and still has little control of the virus yet France is going to welcome visitors from these shores with open arms when surely they can see that the average Brit is a feckwit.
That's not what you said though. But I agree with the idea that british citizens shouldn't be allowed to come without a quarantine until the virus is under control in the UK which should hopefully will be the case in a few weeks, but that's why french politicians are feckwits too. My problem was that you suggested that Italy, France and Spain didn't care about having the virus under control before reopening and that the UK are only following them which isn't true.
Lots inaccurate here mate. Exports are up. Could be anecdotal and they had a big contract with somewhere that has stopped importing, but most NZ Agri sectors are doing better than pre Covid.
Also could be a dairy farmer. But that industry has seen scores of farms fold in the past couple of decades. Fonterra killing anything independent.
Stay Alert was for the tin cans on the beach wasn't it?
I would have preferred 'Keep your distance'.
Nah that was stay safe to remind you to wear your flipflops so you did not cut your tootsies on the jagged edges of the tin cans.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Karen not wearing her mask in usa