Hmmm. That is puzzling. Early on I put your high death rate down to severity bias. But that shouldn’t still be an issue by now, as you say.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Hmmm. That is puzzling. Early on I put your high death rate down to severity bias. But that shouldn’t still be an issue by now, as you say.
Can’t shake the feeling that this is going to be life for a few years. A stream of people dying whilst public life gets opened and closed in an endless loop
Queenstown was being destroyed by tourism. Absolute destroyed. Kiwis are happy to press reset. Bad example but I do appreciate your point.
To your first paragraph - Businesses could organise themselves. Testing resolves those kind of problems. Enough to mitigate at
Air freight? I don’t give a shit. Nor should anyone really.
Not a shot across your bows, but for such a left leaning site, we spout a lot of shite with an economy bent.
The drive to bring tourism and international flights back full force is fecking up everything. In my opinion of course. The whole world could just go far slower. We pretend that it can’t.
Do you think it's ok to keep parents from their children? Children from grandparents and others from their loved ones for a year or more?
And for what end goal? 5 months in and people need to start realising that lockdowns won't make this go away and closed borders won't either. A vaccine might mind.
Israel closed it's borders completely on 12th March, locked down, and fecking look at it now? Wake up people. You gotta learn to live with this, track it where possible, and keep your health service going.
Australia haven't being desperately bringing back tourism or international flights, and they've just re-locked down Melbourne. Some people in public housing treated like fecking prisoners.
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On the bright side, we are already almost half a year in. Let's be optimistic and believe that we are two thirds away from the end.
Tell that to the people with cancer, relying on radiopharmaceuticals to reach their hospital before the dose decays below a therapeutic level. I work in healthcare and can assure you that there is a lot of important stuff that we need to be able to get from A to B within Europe quickly. It’s not ideal in a pandemic (understatement of the year!) but we can’t just tear things up and start all over again. Especially right now, with the health service stretched as it is.
The migrant workers thing is a big deal too. If our ability to produce/distribute food goes tits up then we’re talking serious post-apocalyptic, stab your neighbour for some Rice Crispies, shit. And - whether you like it or not - the whole food industry in the EU is propped up by the ability to easily move people and goods between countries without any delays at borders. Close those borders and the whole house of cards will come down.
I think it was this
Although I haven't read the paper properly to make my own judgement, the claim here is that they're chalking an awful lot of deaths up to flu and pneumonia at the moment.
1,000 pages!
Can’t believe we’ve had this much over a weak flu.
Can’t believe we’ve had this much over a weak flu.
This has been evident since at least May with many states reporting 2-4x the number of pneumonia deaths versus a 5 year rolling average, with Florida being among the worst. I didn’t research it rigorously then, but on a rough glance I guessed 30% being what we were underreporting by which is close to their 28%, meaning we’d be at 160-165k deaths instead of 130k.
That said, we would be expecting the mortality rate to be decreasing now as the average age skews younger and it may be too early to see a spike in deaths from these new epicenters. Whatever conclusions you draw, you have to take data from the US with a good spoonful of salt.
Aren’t ye forgetting about a vaccine? Or an effective ‘cure’.
If an effective vaccine comes along that should take care of most of the population, at least the ones that’ll take it.
Latest I heard is that astra Zeneca’s into phase 3 of their trials and one could be ready by late 2019.
Edit: no time travel required : late 2020.
If an effective vaccine comes along that should take care of most of the population, at least the ones that’ll take it.
Latest I heard is that astra Zeneca’s into phase 3 of their trials and one could be ready by late 2019.
Edit: no time travel required : late 2020.
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So we have to invent time travel first?
WH Press Secretary McEnany: “the world is looking at us as a leader” on handling Covid-19.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow...-leader-pandemic-n1233063?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow...-leader-pandemic-n1233063?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma
She ain’t wrong.
You’re right. We’re definitely leading in cases and deaths.
Texas is going to withhold funding from schools that do not open for in-person classes...
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...offer-in-person-classes-if-they-receive-state
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...offer-in-person-classes-if-they-receive-state
Seeing as you hung me out to dry with that Breaking Bad reference earlier (you absolute bastard) I’m gonna pile in on you here and point out you don’t need a time machine to benefit from something already invented. So there. I’m the real winner today. Game, set and match.
The UK has been an utter disaster. It seems like suppression was taken off the table long ago, never mind eradication. And draconian measures were exactly what was needed. In terms of the UK they could have shut the borders if they wanted to but didn't even try to restrict incoming cases in any way.
In terms of other countries that did much better they either did a proper shut down e.g. NZ or they are culturally disciplined enough to continue suppressing the virus e.g. South Korea. The fear is that the UK is heading for a huge 2nd wage post the recent removal of restrictions especially when colder weather starts to push people inside in autumn and winter. I hope not but it seems inevitable.
Better locked down for 5 days than people dying.
I'm sure there is a flaw in that argument but I can't quite put my finger on it. So you win. Well played sir.
Agree, vaccine will come eventually and until then any normal government will do it's outmost to save as many as possible.
It is shit for the people in lockdown and it hasn't been done as well as it could but when every other state is Covid free, or nearly so in NSW's case, I don't think there is much options. Especially as they think that vast majority of this outbreak was cause by a single infection of a guard at a quarantine hotel. Shows how infectious this is and how quickly things can escalate. I'm also wondering if Melbourne's cold winter weather is contributing. You also really feel for the businesses who have had to shut down again just when they were opening up. It amazes me how gun ho other countries are being with lifting restrictions even before they are over the first wave.
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There are some who never had lockdowns and it went to hell quickly. Generally the ones who have few dead / capita had a lockdown and afterwards intensive testing and tracing. And when a new wave was detected they issued lockdowns where needed. Yes lockdown sucks but the death of thousands is worse.
Well except that you’re condemning anyone in those tower blocks in close proximity to Covid, to a large viral dose.
And some who had and it went to hell anyway.
And plenty who had an are now struggling again to keep anything under control.
Nar, generally the ones doing best in the World tracked and traced immediately and were prepared, and didn’t lockdown.
And as far as I’m aware, the countries doing “best” in Europe, so Germany, Finland, Norway, Denmark never required anyone to lockdown in their homes and people were always allowed to be out and about.
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No you aren't. Not unless they are already infected because they can't move freely within the building. There are 5 police per floor 24/7. There may be some but spreading it outside isn't the answer no matter how shit being in full lockdown for 5 days is. And it looks like they locked down fast enough to stop mass infection in the blocks. Community transfer elsewhere is the main concern now.
Like the UK who asked their people to stay at home but didn't bother stopping mass infection arriving undetected from outside?
like Belgium.
like Israel.
It’s currently not going well for many countries that locked down. Lockdown for many it’s turning out to predictably be just a case of kicking the can down the road.
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It’s definitely a case of “feck the poor peeps” in the tower blocks, let them get sick.
If they live with someone who has covid they have no escape and no respite, 120 hours of viral load, damned.
Belgium locked down a week or two too late (a combination of bad luck and slow reactions, the later in common with most countries) and then started relaxing too soon. But one of the biggest factors was that they had very high infection rates and they reported all suspicious deaths in care homes as Covid deaths whereas other countries did not. Given that over 50% of Covid deaths were in care homes so their figures, deaths in particular, are likely to be inflated by nearly 50% in comparison to many other countries.
Not all countries start from the same place and all sorts of factors interact to influence outcomes but nothing can detract from the fact that if you don't lock down properly then you are trading lives for economics. It is a simple truism and a decision that all governments have taken to one degree or another barring NZ and maybe a few other edge cases.
They locked down very early in fairness to them. Way before Australia, the UK and tonnes of others.
What has “gone wrong” in Israel ? Early lockdown and not allowing transmission from outside as you claimed has been the UK problem?
That is the nature of quarantine. Same anywhere.
Except here everyone will get repeatedly tested, transmission between units will be limited or virtually eliminated and everyone has immediate medical care available. It is shit but free food, rent and $1500 per head hardship payments will offset that slightly. I'd rather they had to take one for the team that paying in dead old people. Plus the lock-down of the towers seems to have been a success. There were 56 cases that caused the lock-down but only 13 since. Fingers crossed that is a sign they caught it in time.
You’d rather those always at most risk (the poor) are not helped before this crisis to avoid Covid-19 with work and better housing, but hey, sit indoors, take your viral load and we’ll let you off rent.
I’m sure the rich and at little risk fecked off out of Melbourne a while back to avoid lockdown, they unlike the tower blocks conveniently had ample warning.
No fecking shit they shouldn’t pay rent, let’s not make out the government is doing them a favour there man
, they’ve actually imprisoned them.Australia and Belgium closed their borders on the same day - 20th March. Both had some restrictions before then but Australia benefited from geography, shutting off flights from China very early, then from Italy, and they were also luckier. Since then they have been better than most medically. Belgium also had their virologists and other medial types advising much swifter action that was ignored until too late.
Israel relaxed restrictions far too early, allowed risky mass gatherings mainly in synagogues, send older kids back to school far too early and their testing has been poor, especially in processing the results in tests.
As we have seen in Melbourne it doesn't take much to tip over from suppression to new outbreak and a few combining factors make a big difference. A few places that have done badly or even failed due to mistakes doesn't make restricting the virus as much as you can a bad idea. Quite the opposite. just compare the death toll in the US, UK, Sweden etc with NZ, Australia, Korea or Singapore.
I hope the UK has got better at testing.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/08/first-arrivals-under-uk-quarantine-rules-coronavirus
I'm talking about dealing with the situation we have not the one I'd prefer. Social housing in Australia is a disgrace but that isn't something that helps us stop the spread of Covid today.
I’m sure the rich and at little risk fecked off out of Melbourne a while back to avoid lockdown, they unlike the tower blocks conveniently had ample warning.[/auote]
Maybe if they own a second home in Victoria. Even before the borders were locked at 24hrs notice most other states had barred people travelling from Melbourne with $11,000 fines and six months in prison the penalty. But even if that is true. What has that got to do with controlling the outbreak. You do what you can do as opposed to doing nothing in case someone else does the wrong thing. Sounds like climate change 101.
No fecking shit they shouldn’t pay rent, let’s not make out the government is doing them a favour there man
When did I say it was a favor. I was merely pointing out that the Victoria government know it is a shit situation and are interested in doing what they can. They have been pretty impressive. Good job we didn't give Peter Dutton control as he would have just set fire to the tower blocks (well shipped them off to Naru anyway).
Absolutely, but Lisbon, Israel and Melbourne should have taught you it’s still far to early for too much patting on the back.
Calling Sweden “failed“ when they have done miles better than plenty of lockdown countries whilst keeping kids in school and in sport, not locked in with abusive parents, abusive partners and a shit tonne of other mental health issues is a little rich still this early. Just 25 in ICU in Stockholm today, most Stockholm hospitals now have no Covid-19 ICU patients. Just 97 in entire country.
Failure here has still been care homes, worse than most places, and the original tracking was wank. That said increased mortality stats here are also bang on with Covid-19 death stats, something that absolutely isn’t the case in many countries.
And as I said multiple times here, the strategy here has always been “flatten the curve” and have a long term strategy rather than a kick the can down the road strategy.
We’re closing in on the anarchy I predicted months back, looking at Serbia last night, and I predict more and more of the same if countries continue to use lockdowns to try and slow this.
*all depends how you see “failed” of course. People in care homes in Sweden (approx 3000 deaths there) have a 2 yr life expectancy and still, they have been failed for sure. But the children of the country certainly haven’t been, quite the opposite.
With just 224 deaths under 60 (just 4%), and a large percentage of those with underlying conditions, it’s gonna be a strange balance this one going forward. Let’s hope as the cases drop like a lead balloon in Sweden, they are better prepared to trace and track and better prepared in care homes before a second wave, which I’m fairly sure the majority of countries will eventually have to deal with.
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