SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[balaks]

Coronavirus app being launched. Whatever happened to the Isle of Wight experiment in June, I assume it wasn't a great success.

Is there not already an app? We have had app in NI for the last month.

 

[zing]

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/936937#vp_1

Very informative read.

 

[Mickeza]

Coronavirus app being launched. Whatever happened to the Isle of Wight experiment in June, I assume it wasn't a great success.

They changed to the Apple/google model after it which everyone told them they’d need to do. I guess the private firm with Cumming’s sister on the board wouldn’t have got paid quite so much if they’d done that from the start though.

 

[Jacko21]

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[Dobba]

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[acnumber9]

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It’s not the Government’s fault. It’s young people.

 

[redmeister]

Given we are seeing so few hospitalizations and deaths, isn't it spreading quickly a good thing?

 

[SirAF]

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[One Night Only]

Given we are seeing so few hospitalizations and deaths, isn't it spreading quickly a good thing?

Yeah I think so, herd immunity is going to end up here before the vaccine.

I know age groups are different now, but is the virus becoming weaker too?

 

[redshaw]

Thought we'd break 3k today. Smashed it.

UK 3539 cases and 6 deaths.

 

[hobbers]

Spain smashing their own daily case record as well today. Not looking great.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Many people who have a heavy cold think it's flu. It's people's understanding of what flu actually is that is flawed and is what will cause an increase in un-necessary testing putting more pressure on the system.

The govenrment message only last month was, if in doubt get a test.

The WHO have said the only way to control spread is to test test test.

The problem is not peoples understanding, the problem is the lack of tests, government bumbling and lies about testing capacity.

Different people have different symptoms, so if you have "heavy cold" symptoms, you should get tested.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

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£500 million spent by the government encouraging people to sit together in enclosed spaces for long periods of time with no masks. 1 week later its illegal to meet in groups of 6 or more!

 

[horsechoker]

£500 million spent by the government encouraging people to sit together in enclosed spaces for long periods of time with no masks. 1 week later its illegal to meet in groups of 6 or more!

bloody young people!

 

[ManUArfa]

£500 million spent by the government encouraging people to sit together in enclosed spaces for long periods of time with no masks. 1 week later its illegal to meet in groups of 6 or more!

Public venues allow controllable contact. Keeping them operating supports the economy, saves jobs and saves furlough money.

Parties and mass gatherings do little other than serve to spread the virus. I do prefer, however, the Scottish version of the latest restriction but Nicola always seems to reap the benefits of hindsight.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Public venues allow controllable contact. Keeping them operating supports the economy, saves jobs and saves furlough money.

And now that it’s been made illegal do you think anyone will be in public venues to allow “controllable contact”? Or do you think that actually encourages the opposite, people inside each other’s houses meeting each other in the worst known location for driving a virus like this?
Imbeciles!

 

[Giggzinho]

Hospital admissions on the rise. Patients on ventilators on the rise. I’ve been monitoring the Gov Uk website for the past month or so and at a glance I’d say the above have gone up 10%, though I could be wrong. It is very worrying though if we are using this as an indicator of where we are potentially heading again.

Also, I don’t know how reliable a source Dr Li Yeng-Man is or if it has already been discussed but she has come out again today and said she believes it is a man made virus. From what I’ve read (again, I have no scientific background), it seems like this is a false claim but her background checks out. I don’t know what her agenda is, any thoughts?

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Public venues allow controllable contact. Keeping them operating supports the economy, saves jobs and saves furlough money.

Parties and mass gatherings do little other than serve to spread the virus. I do prefer, however, the Scottish version of the latest restriction but Nicola always seems to reap the benefits of hindsight.

Public venues such as restaurants and pubs are in an enclosed space. Shared air, suspended particles. COVID19 does not care if it is in a house or a pub. Hell, pubs are just a party where everyone is paying VAT. Very little is controlled. It is purely an economic decision and not a scientific one. It is actually safer outside in people's gardens than inside a pub restaurant or cinema.

If you value the economy over health then don't bother with the pretence and just go for full herd immunity. This illogical "worst of both worlds" approach the government has taken with does not make sense. It is actually counter productive because the population see the holes in the logic and pay less attention to the guidance.

 

[Wibble]

Also, I don’t know how reliable a source Dr Li Yeng-Man is or if it has already been discussed but she has come out again today and said she believes it is a man made virus. From what I’ve read (again, I have no scientific background), it seems like this is a false claim but her background checks out. I don’t know what her agenda is, any thoughts?

The claim the virus is man made is ludicrous no matter who claims it is or what their expertise or background are.

 

[Wibble]

Yeah I think so, herd immunity is going to end up here before the vaccine.

Not unless a vaccine takes a very long time indeed as herd immunity might well need 85% of the population to become infected.

I know age groups are different now, but is the virus becoming weaker too?

Viruses can evolve to be less deadly as killing your host is a poor evolutionary tactic. However, as far as I know we haven't seen this with SARS-CoV-2 yet. Death rates are probably down a bit due to better treatment and ICU's not being overwhelmed at the moment.

 

[One Night Only]

Not unless a vaccine takes a very long time indeed as herd immunity might well need 85% of the population to become infected.



Viruses can evolve to be less deadly as killing your host is a poor evolutionary tactic. However, as far as I know we haven't seen this with SARS-CoV-2 yet. Death rates are probably down a bit due to better treatment and ICU's not being overwhelmed at the moment.

I thought herd immunity would be gained at 50% population infected? As then the r0 value can not be above 1 no matter what?

 

[berbatrick]

Horrifying

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Professors should be flexible enough to make a difficult open-notes test instead of this Orwellian nonsense.

 

[Wibble]

I thought herd immunity would be gained at 50% population infected? As then the r0 value can not be above 1 no matter what?

Sadly no. The higher the R the higher the % of the population that need to be immune to hit HIT. We don't know what the R was for sure but most estimates seem to.put HIT at between 70 and 85% for SARS-CoV-2

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Sadly no. The higher the R the higher the % of the population that need to be immune to hit HIT. We don't know what the R was for sure but most estimates seem to.put HIT at between 70 and 85% for SARS-CoV-2

The actual answer is, we have no idea.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The actual answer is, we have no idea.

We don’t know for sure but we do know for sure that this virus is very contagious. Maybe not measles level contagious but looks to be a level above, say, flu. So there’s no way we’re reaching herd immunity with just 50% of the population infected. And that’s without even considering the possibility that immunity after being infected is fairly short-lived. Which is a definite possibility.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

We don’t know for sure but we do know for sure that this virus is very contagious. Maybe not measles level contagious but looks to be a level above, say, flu. So there’s no way we’re reaching herd immunity with just 50% of the population infected. And that’s without even considering the possibility that immunity after being infected is fairly short-lived. Which is a definite possibility.

As I say, we don’t know, we don’t know anything really about immunity with this virus yet.
I’ve read a shit tonne from virologists, epidemiologists and the general consensus appears to be nothing more than, “we don’t know enough about this virus”.

 

[Wibble]

The actual answer is, we have no idea.

No it isn't.

 

[Wibble]

We don’t know for sure but we do know for sure that this virus is very contagious. Maybe not measles level contagious but looks to be a level above, say, flu. So there’s no way we’re reaching herd immunity with just 50% of the population infected. And that’s without even considering the possibility that immunity after being infected is fairly short-lived. Which is a definite possibility.

Agreed - north of 50% and likely 70-85% minus the small percentage already immune.

Long enough immunity is now looking likely and that ignores the t-cell memory with is also quite likely.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...for-at-least-four-months-after-recovery-67907

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

I'd say T-cells remembering the base virus of the vaccine and reducing the effects of a booster is a bigger worry.

Of course we also don't have a vaccine yet no matter how promising it looks with 9 in stage 3 trials.

 

[Virgil]

With regards to testing I have sympathy with all governments across the world. How the heck does any country develop a system where ALL citizens can receive a test not only on demand but on a day by day or week by week if necessary. Strikes me as being impossible to achieve no matter what the WHO recommend.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Agreed - north of 50% and likely 70-85% minus the small percentage already immune.

Long enough immunity is now looking likely and that ignores the t-cell memory with is also quite likely.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...for-at-least-four-months-after-recovery-67907

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

I'd say T-cells remembering the base virus of the vaccine and reducing the effects of a booster is a bigger worry.

Of course we also don't have a vaccine yet no matter how promising it looks with 9 in stage 3 trials.

Come on, Wibs. That T cells article is highly speculative and published in May and the other talks about circulating antibodies (not necessarily immunity) a mere four months after infection.

For a smart bloke, you’ve an enormous blind spot on this whole vaccine/immunity thing. You’re only interested in data that supports your conviction we’ll have a highly effective and long lasting vaccine very soon. Because that supports your equally strongly held conviction that rigorous lockdowns are the only way to deal with this. For a man of science, the strength with which you hold these two convictions comes strangely close to religious zealotry. I wish I shared your faith because it would be very reassuring but what I’m reading/hearing is a lot more messy and uncertain.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

This is concerning. Is it not simply waiting until we exit the EU to avoid adhering to EU health regulations, then essentially using the UK population as guinea pigs for an unlicensed vaccine? Also removing any liability in case this unlicensed vaccine does not work or has unexpected side effects?

Thoughts?

https://www.gov.uk/government/consu...-vaccines-and-treatments-for-covid-19-and-flu

-authorising temporary supply of an unlicensed product

-civil liability and immunity

-expanding the workforce eligible to administer vaccinations

-promoting vaccines

-making provisions for wholesale dealing of vaccines

 

[Pexbo]

This is concerning. Is it not simply waiting until we exit the EU to avoid adhering to EU health regulations, then essentially using the UK population as guinea pigs for an unlicensed vaccine? Also removing any liability in case this unlicensed vaccine does not work or has unexpected side effects?

Thoughts?

https://www.gov.uk/government/consu...-vaccines-and-treatments-for-covid-19-and-flu

-authorising temporary supply of an unlicensed product

-civil liability and immunity

-expanding the workforce eligible to administer vaccinations

-promoting vaccines

-making provisions for wholesale dealing of vaccines

Slightly off topic but just had this thought.

The Venn diagram of the people that voted for Brexit, the people that voted for Boris Johnson’s Government, the anti-vaxxers who believe COVID-19 is a government conspiracy designed to force us to take vaccines and the people who will vote for Boris Johnson’s government again given the chance is a perfect circle.

 

[nickm]

Hospital admissions on the rise. Patients on ventilators on the rise. I’ve been monitoring the Gov Uk website for the past month or so and at a glance I’d say the above have gone up 10%, though I could be wrong. It is very worrying though if we are using this as an indicator of where we are potentially heading again.

Also, I don’t know how reliable a source Dr Li Yeng-Man is or if it has already been discussed but she has come out again today and said she believes it is a man made virus. From what I’ve read (again, I have no scientific background), it seems like this is a false claim but her background checks out. I don’t know what her agenda is, any thoughts?

She may be right but there are ways to test her claim and my understanding is theres no evidence for it.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Slightly off topic but just had this thought.

The Venn diagram of the people that voted for Brexit, the people that voted for Boris Johnson’s Government, the anti-vaxxers who believe COVID-19 is a government conspiracy designed to force us to take vaccines and the people who will vote for Boris Johnson’s government again given the chance is a perfect circle.

There is some irony there, for sure.

 

[Wibble]

Come on, Wibs. That T cells article is highly speculative and published in May and the other talks about circulating antibodies (not necessarily immunity) a mere four months after infection.

For a smart bloke, you’ve an enormous blind spot on this whole vaccine/immunity thing. You’re only interested in data that supports your conviction we’ll have a highly effective and long lasting vaccine very soon. Because that supports your equally strongly held conviction that rigorous lockdowns are the only way to deal with this. For a man of science, the strength with which you hold these two convictions comes strangely close to religious zealotry. I wish I shared your faith because it would be very reassuring but what I’m reading/hearing is a lot more messy and uncertain.

I'll fully admit that none of this is 100% certain. All vaccines could fail. Or antibodies could be so short lived that a vaccine is functionally almost useless. T-cells may not result reducing the benefit. Host vaccines could reduce the long term ability to boost a vaccination.

However, I'm basing all my views on the available evidence combined with probibility. That doesn't mean failure can't occur even if it is unlikely.

There over 100 vaccines being developed and given the huge advances in vaccine development in recent years the chances of none of them working is very close to zero. Time scale is probably the main unknown.

T-cell immunity rarely doesn't occur as a result of a approved modern vaccine. On point the Oxford vaccine produced a strong immune and T-cell response in stage 2 trials so, if it passes stage 3,, that is likely still to be true.

As a former peer review editor of primary literature I'm good at balancing evidence and judging the likelihood of outcomes and much of what is reported is garbage. The evidence used to suggest antibody longevity is short lived is particularly rubbish. Doesn't mean I'm right but the best current evidence is leaning that way.

Proper lockdowns work. The evidence is unequivocal. The UK didn't lock down. Their borders were open and they had functionally zero quarantine. They still couldn't track or trace a T-Rex loose in Hyde Park.

 

[golden_blunder]

The claim the virus is man made is ludicrous no matter who claims it is or what their expertise or background are.

It doesn’t necessarily have to be man made, it may have been in a lab for study purposes

 

[Fluctuation0161]

It doesn’t necessarily have to be man made, it may have been in a lab for study purposes

Wouldnt that still be man made?

Considering the massive advancements and investment in both genetic engineering and biological warfare by almost all developed countries. We are even looking at genetically modified viruses to treat cancer. It would be naive to rule out the option of Covid19 being created in a lab. It may have been accidentally released.

 

[GlasgowRedz]

Oxford vaccine trial has resumed

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...nteers-b431280.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

[Wolverine]

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[Buster15]

I can't help thinking that the stupid eat out to help out has had a lot to do with the increase in covid cases.