SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Wibble

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Yeah sure. The thing that makes me think its still going to be a slow process is that the vaccine isnt expected till April next year at the earliest and that initial rollout wont be enough to give a wide enough protection to the vulnerable. I think we will need at least 2 million people to have some level of vaccine protection accompanied by all the new mask wearing/hand washing/social distancing behaviours to be comfortable with opening up. Thats going to take further vaccine rollouts, its going to be a staggered situation over the course of a year or 2.
There is no doubt that at some point we will see the entire country having to deal with it, the virus will absolutely sweep through NZ but by that point in time treating of the virus will be improved (we are already seeing that), the vulnerable will be better protected. I just dont see any early get out point.
April? Has that been announced as a target date? And which vaccine do they have in the pipeline and is it being locally produced?

In Au we are already manufacturing the UQ vaccine but that won't be ready until at least the middle of 2021. The plan is to manufacture huge quantities, far more than needed to vaccinate the whole of AU and NZ (I assume there is or will be an agreement with NZ if it is required) in the region of 100 million doses (half for AU and presumably NZ and half for developing nations) in 2021 and 10's of millions of doses of the Oxford vaccine. It is less clear how much of the later is already made and/or how much will be ready when (assuming success) it passes phase 3 and gets regulatory approval. Or who will get it first etc
 

Stack

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April? Has that been announced as a target date? And which vaccine do they have in the pipeline and is it being locally produced?

In Au we are already manufacturing the UQ vaccine but that won't be ready until at least the middle of 2021 although the plan is to manufacture huge quantities, far more than needed to vaccinate the whole of AU and NZ (I assume there is or will be an agreement with NZ if it is required) in the region of 100 million doses (half for AU and presumably NZ and half for developing nations) in 2021 and 10's of millions of doses of the Oxford vaccine. It is less clear how much of the later is already made and/or how much will be ready when (assuming success) it passes phase 3 and gets regulatory approval. Or who will get it first etc
April was based on an assumption I think.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/the-b...-vaccine-roll-out/P7HIVKGYOGVMOMI6XLWK3DIUOU/
 

Wibble

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Cheers thanks for that. Didnt spot it
I saw that and was more than a little relieved. We so need the first cab off the rank to succeed - a worldwide moral boost is needed more than anything at the moment IMO so we can rally to get through to a vaccine ans a start to heading back to normal (albeit a new normal).
 

Wibble

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Can't help but laugh at the guardian readers in here. Such a fair and balanced newspaper hehehe.
So what is incorrect in the article? Privatising track and trace has been a success in only a single category - enriching the top end of town.
 

Wibble

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Also. A sobering news story on the downsides of shutting your borders.
The source of the story is a South Australian MP (quite rightly) highlighting that SA doesn't have its own pediatric heart surgery capacity. However, so far there has been no medical evidence that the 3 (possibly 4) newborns who have died recently would have been candidates for, or saved by, surgery. Obviously medical privacy consideration may mean this was the case and the doctors can't say but it could also be that it isn't the case and just being used as a political weapon to get much needed services to SA. Either way your heart breaks for the parents, doubly so if their kid would have had a better chance if they could have been flown to Melbourne. If it was the case I'm wondering why they didn't go to WA who do have the facilities I believe and are close (by AU standards) and open. SA also has access to NSW hospitals as their borders aren't closed either.
 
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Tony Babangida

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So I’d rather live in a country that is already a long way down that path than one that hasn’t even started. Even though life in NZ and Aus is undoubtably better than life in Europe right now.
I’d argue that if these countries eventually do need to let the virus in then they will be in a better position to deal with it. Who knows what rona treatment will look like this time next year. We have come a long way since March with regards to understanding of the course of disease and best treatment practice, even without any particularly effective therapeutics. A more managed infection of the community could maybe be considered down the line (got no idea how this would work or how ethical it is).

I’m undoubtedly a bit biased though as I live in Victoria and want to believe the long lockdown I’ve just been through was worth it.
 

Wibble

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I’m undoubtedly a bit biased though as I live in Victoria and want to believe the long lockdown I’ve just been through was worth it.
IMO it shows what good leadership, incisive action and clear messaging can do. Personally I think Dan Andrews and in fact all the State Premiers have been brilliant. Had the balls to do what was needed even when Scotty from Marketing would obviously prefer far fewer restrictions.
 

Tony Babangida

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IMO it shows what good leadership, incisive action and clear messaging can do. Personally I think Dan Andrews and in fact all the State Premiers have been brilliant. Had the balls to do what was needed even when Scotty from Marketing would obviously prefer far fewer restrictions.
I agree. I would even say ScoMo has done pretty well, could have been a lot worse. The political point scoring is now starting in Vic through, with the libs calling for immediate opening up.

Plenty of stuff to be angry about, hotel quarantine and aged care were thoroughly ballsed up in Vic and unsurprisingly nobody has owned up to either. Plus the Cox-plate decision was baffling before being rightly reversed.
 

Wibble

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I agree. I would even say ScoMo has done pretty well, could have been a lot worse. The political point scoring is now starting in Vic through, with the libs calling for immediate opening up.

Plenty of stuff to be angry about, hotel quarantine and aged care were thoroughly ballsed up in Vic and unsurprisingly nobody has owned up to either. Plus the Cox-plate decision was baffling before being rightly reversed.
There were cock ups but there were bound to be in such an unprecedented (drink*) situation but I still think he has been pretty damn good. Done a good job of bringing the Vic population with him as well imo. Then again even Gladys, who I was far of a fan of before, has done a very good job imo.

ScoMo has been dragged to doing a vaguely competent job (barring his removal/reduction of unemployment and Bookkeeper support to pay for tax cut for upper income groups) against his instincts party because the State Premiers stood strong and partly because he couldn't afford yet another utterly disastrous performance, especially considering how well NZ were/are doing.

*pandemic drinking game reference
 

Brwned

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That’s been one of the biggest eye-openers for me. I’ve always been inclined to defer to anyone who is more qualified than me on any given topic. This pandemic has revealed the way that many academics behave like zealots. Picking and choosing pieces of data to support their underlying agenda. I think it was @Arruda who called this behaviour out very early on in the pandemic and he’s been proved right.It’s all very unedifying and depressing.

You can see why conspiracy theories are so appealing. It must be comforting to convince yourself this is all being carefully planned by people who know exactly what they’re doing. Reminds me of the way becoming an adult involves an uncomfortable realisation that everyone is flawed and muddling their way through life. Even authority figures. Conspiracy gonks biggest failing is arguably immaturity.
Yeah, I'm sure I read before that experts tend to fall prey to confirmation bias a little more often than the average person, largely because they're better at creating convincing arguments to refute other people's views and to solidify their own. The reason we don't associate it with scientists is because the framework of science is exceptionally good at combating those tendencies. But then even the pinnacle of society in that regard runs into problems! So once people step outside of that framework, we should expect them to be every bit as flawed as the rest of us. And for experts talking about something outside of the field of their own expertise we should be even more wary of them, because they're just better at convincing themselves and others of things they know very little about.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds

(and to round that circle, it's entirely possible some of the experiments in that article would have some of the same problems in the replication crisis!)

Agreed that conspiracy theories prey on immaturity! Unfortunately, my dad's just started getting into them. All the same markers of falling down that social media rabbit hole captured in that podcast. Started just before covid and I reckon at christmas he'll be talking about microchips. Definitely the main thing he's getting out of it is escapism from the reality that a lot of the shit things that happen in the world are subject to an incredible amount of randomness, how those events get distributed is almost inevitably never fair because of that randomness, and even if the right actions were followed every step of the way, it might not have been enough to solve that problem.

In his case, right now he's looking at his life's savings gradually disappearing, his perfectly planned retirement becoming much harder to predict, and his wife's business and main source of pride being shot to pieces. He needs to attribute that blame to somewhere, and it is more comforting to think this bunch of shadowy individuals orchestrated it. The idea that this once in a lifetime event happened just because of a biological quirk, a series of exceptionally unfortunate events and a big dose of randomness is incomprehensible. It's completely at odds with his worldview. He lifted himself out of poverty because of the decisions he made, he is the author of his destiny, etc. He deserved to be where he is now, and he doesn't deserve this, so something must have interfered. Any other hypothesis just strikes at the core of what he's chosen to believe all this time. And conspiracy theories come with the added benefit of feeling superior to others. If only they could see the matrix like I can.
 
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Tony Babangida

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This pandemic has revealed the way that many academics behave like zealots
#notallacademics! But yeah people becoming entrenched in their positions has a long history in the academy. Becomes more of a problem when they venture outside of the realm of journal publications into voicing their (authoritative) opinions to the general public. That's how you get polarisation and the resultant sides being supported like football teams. It has been disappointing but hopefully it doesn't overshadow all the good work being done by academics to deal with the pandemic.
 

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I am starting to think that less and less people will be following the measures next year. Fatigue is a part of the problem, while another part of the problem is that it is becoming less and less clear what it is that we are trying to achieve exactly. Yes yes we dont want to overwhelm the medical system, I know, but:

If you go back to March or April and read this thread, a common claim was that a vaccine would gradually get us out of this, but a vaccine might not be possible at all and, if possible almost certainly will not be ready for years.

Now it looks more and more likely that it will be ready in a matter of months but now the claim is well, you know, a vaccine will slow down the spread but will not really change anything.

This seems to leave us with the option of living like this for decades which I am not sure is the optimal solution gor the medical system as well as you are unlikely to produce too many top doctors if the current volatile education system climate goes on for years.

Pogue has stated in a recent post that humans have adopted to new pathogens through exposure which is fine but how are we going to get exposure if we keep applying measures never seen in history.

So, what I am trying to say I guess, is that I think that most people will say feck it when they realize that not even a vaccine will end this.
 

Wibble

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Now it looks more and more likely that it will be ready in a matter of months but now the claim is well, you know, a vaccine will slow down the spread but will not really change anything.
It will hugely change things. Not at the click of your fingers but R will be hugely reduced on top of existing measures to reduce R. And without the associated chaos of just letting it spread. And this is one of the problems with BoJo's shambling response. People are losing hope rather than being rallied to cope until things start to get better throughout 2021 and beyond.
 

Mb194dc

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I am starting to think that less and less people will be following the measures next year. Fatigue is a part of the problem, while another part of the problem is that it is becoming less and less clear what it is that we are trying to achieve exactly. Yes yes we dont want to overwhelm the medical system, I know, but:

If you go back to March or April and read this thread, a common claim was that a vaccine would gradually get us out of this, but a vaccine might not be possible at all and, if possible almost certainly will not be ready for years.

Now it looks more and more likely that it will be ready in a matter of months but now the claim is well, you know, a vaccine will slow down the spread but will not really change anything.

This seems to leave us with the option of living like this for decades which I am not sure is the optimal solution gor the medical system as well as you are unlikely to produce too many top doctors if the current volatile education system climate goes on for years.

Pogue has stated in a recent post that humans have adopted to new pathogens through exposure which is fine but how are we going to get exposure if we keep applying measures never seen in history.

So, what I am trying to say I guess, is that I think that most people will say feck it when they realize that not even a vaccine will end this.
A reasonable supposition, the evidence from a lot of studies and now confirmed re-infections has pointed to immunity only lasting 3 months in mild cases and up to 12 in pretty much the best case scenario for serious infections. Pretty hard to see how vaccination will be a solution, at least any more than the flu vaccine is if that is so. Covid likely goes seasonal and will come every year, forever ?

What I am wondering is how governments react if that is confirmed. Given as you say, all the measures taken will just string the crisis out for decades or even longer.
 

Hound Dog

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I kinda already assumed that life as we know it is changed forever.
I think that what is more likely to happen (if there is no stopping this thing) is that, long-term, life expectancy will go down.

There is simply no way people can keep living like this for years, suicides will go through the roof, the economy will collapse completely.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Yeah, I'm sure I read before that experts tend to fall prey to confirmation bias a little more often than the average person, largely because they're better at creating convincing arguments to refute other people's views and to solidify their own. The reason we don't associate it with scientists is because the framework of science is exceptionally good at combating those tendencies. But then even the pinnacle of society in that regard runs into problems! So once people step outside of that framework, we should expect them to be every bit as flawed as the rest of us. And for experts talking about something outside of the field of their own expertise we should be even more wary of them, because they're just better at convincing themselves and others of things they know very little about.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds

(and to round that circle, it's entirely possible some of the experiments in that article would have some of the same problems in the replication crisis!)

Agreed that conspiracy theories prey on immaturity! Unfortunately, my dad's just started getting into them. All the same markers of falling down that social media rabbit hole captured in that podcast. Started just before covid and I reckon at christmas he'll be talking about microchips. Definitely the main thing he's getting out of it is escapism from the reality that a lot of the shit things that happen in the world are subject to an incredible amount of randomness, how those events get distributed is almost inevitably never fair because of that randomness, and even if the right actions were followed every step of the way, it might not have been enough to solve that problem.

In his case, right now he's looking at his life's savings gradually disappearing, his perfectly planned retirement becoming much harder to predict, and his wife's business and main source of pride being shot to pieces. He needs to attribute that blame to somewhere, and it is more comforting to think this bunch of shadowy individuals orchestrated it. The idea that this once in a lifetime event happened just because of a biological quirk, a series of exceptionally unfortunate events and a big dose of randomness is incomprehensible. It's completely at odds with his worldview. He lifted himself out of poverty because of the decisions he made, he is the author of his destiny, etc. He deserved to be where he is now, and he doesn't deserve this, so something must have interfered. Any other hypothesis just strikes at the core of what he's chosen to believe all this time. And conspiracy theories come with the added benefit of feeling superior to others. If only they could see the matrix like I can.
Oh man. Sorry to hear that. Must be so tough for you. Hope your dad catches a break soon.
 

Hound Dog

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It will hugely change things. Not at the click of your fingers but R will be hugely reduced on top of existing measures to reduce R. And without the associated chaos of just letting it spread. And this is one of the problems with BoJo's shambling response. People are losing hope rather than being rallied to cope until things start to get better throughout 2021 and beyond.
When I say "not really change things" I mean "not allow people to walk around not fearing that they will die of covid". Okay, the risk will be reduced but it will not be zero. So nothing has changed dramatically.
 

Arruda

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Gotcha. So the median age of people dying has increased and there’s a higher % of multi-morbid deaths.

Combine this with the longer time to death and super-infections etc it all points towards better access to ventilators. Fewer people dying for lack of a vent. That reflects well on how the Italian health service is coping with the second wave (so far) but wouldn’t make me feel any more confident about a better outcome as a young person, with no co-morbidity (which would bump me up the queue for a ventilator anyway)
It's a somehhat chilling
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/

Analisi sui decessi is the deaths data, its updated twice weekly.
Thanks!
 

Tony Babangida

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A reasonable supposition, the evidence from a lot of studies and now confirmed re-infections has pointed to immunity only lasting 3 months in mild cases and up to 12 in pretty much the best case scenario for serious infections. Pretty hard to see how vaccination will be a solution, at least any more than the flu vaccine is if that is so. Covid likely goes seasonal and will come every year, forever ?

What I am wondering is how governments react if that is confirmed. Given as you say, all the measures taken will just string the crisis out for decades or even longer.
It’s been covered a bit in this thread but there are reasons to think that immunity arising from vaccination will last longer than from natural infection. Also it is still not clear how frequently reinfections occur. I think it’s highly likely that SARS-CoV-2 will end up as endemic and seasonal. Over time some degree of immunity will build up in the population, hopefully with vaccination playing a significant role.
 

Tony Babangida

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Dont get me wrong, I am not in the "we are fecked forever" camp.

I am just saying that I cannot see the manner in which we are tackling this being sustainable on the long run.
Haha I started writing that reply and then gave up. But I guess I was going to basically say hopefully the vaccine works in old folks so we can protect them.
 

golden_blunder

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Could you please shed some light on how you figure this will happen?
I figure the virus will still be around like the common cold even with vaccines because not everyone is going to take them. So there will still be a percentage of the population still at risk.

life will open up again but I think that measures around travelling, etc etc will be part of life forever. There will still be people dying but it won’t be reported anymore so for most people it will be liveable
 

redshaw

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When I say "not really change things" I mean "not allow people to walk around not fearing that they will die of covid". Okay, the risk will be reduced but it will not be zero. So nothing has changed dramatically.
There's other risks that aren't zero but life went on.

Vaccines were never going to have us back to normal in 2021 but immunity is being built up still, especially with younger people. Vaccines will take a while to roll out and be distributed but older people will get them first and they will help out somewhat.

I hate to bring up the flu but we can get this down to flu like levels of risk and humans will adapt to the risk and live life more freely in the coming years. I don't think it will be decades of this.

The biggest worry long term is more viruses as human civilization expands as well as more environmental changes. The more we mess around the bigger the punch back will be.
 

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There's other risks that aren't zero but life went on.
I agree, but the point I am making is that life is not going on at the moment. Will people keep applying measures en masse after the vaccine rolls out and after more than a year of living this pseudo life? I doubt it.
 

Fingeredmouse

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There's other risks that aren't zero but life went on.

Vaccines were never going to have us back to normal in 2021 but immunity is being built up still, especially with younger people. Vaccines will take a while to roll out and be distributed but older people will get them first and they will help out somewhat.

I hate to bring up the flu but we can get this down to flu like levels of risk and humans will adapt to the risk and live life more freely in the coming years. I don't think it will be decades of this.

The biggest worry long term is more viruses as human civilization expands as well as more environmental changes. The more we mess around the bigger the punch back will be.
I agree with this and your last paragraph is key. This is a warning shot. We're fortunate that this is, relatively, a fairly benign disease. It is entirely conceivable that some day a highly virulent disease achieves pandemic status.
 

Wibble

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When I say "not really change things" I mean "not allow people to walk around not fearing that they will die of covid". Okay, the risk will be reduced but it will not be zero. So nothing has changed dramatically.
I'd say if we get one or more vaccines things will have changed dramatically and as fast or faster than we could have hoped for. I know moral in the UK has unsuprisingly tanked so seeing any bright side is really hard at the moment. However, if a worldwide roll-out of a vaccine and better treatment puts us on the road back to normal by the end of 2021, and at or close to normal a year later then that would be a very dramatic recovery in my book.
 

Wibble

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I agree with this and your last paragraph is key. This is a warning shot. We're fortunate that this is, relatively, a fairly benign disease. It is entirely conceivable that some day a highly virulent disease achieves pandemic status.
Although a combination of highly infectious and highly fatal tends to burn out too fast to become a pandemic - killing the host too fast for mass spread. There are unusual scenarios that this could happen e.g. long asymptomatic period of a highly infectious virus followed by a late onset high fatality rate, but covid is pretty much in the sweet spot for a pandemic.
 

Honest John

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There's other risks that aren't zero but life went on.

Vaccines were never going to have us back to normal in 2021 but immunity is being built up still, especially with younger people. Vaccines will take a while to roll out and be distributed but older people will get them first and they will help out somewhat.

I hate to bring up the flu but we can get this down to flu like levels of risk and humans will adapt to the risk and live life more freely in the coming years. I don't think it will be decades of this.

The biggest worry long term is more viruses as human civilization expands as well as more environmental changes. The more we mess around the bigger the punch back will be.
The only time I have ever had proper flu was in November1989. I was totally wiped-out and off work for 2 weeks. If you look back at the records there was a spike over the winter of 1989/90. It actually killed 29,000 in this country. No press, no lock-down. Eventually we will have to live with Covid-19. There will be a range of vaccines and treatments, none of which, on their own will be a panacea, but they will provide the medics with an arsenal to deploy. So you might catch it, you might wind up in hospital but, in most cases they will get you through it. There will of course be outliers - as there are with flu and umpteen other diseases.
 

Brwned

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Oh man. Sorry to hear that. Must be so tough for you. Hope your dad catches a break soon.
Ah, in the grand scheme of things my suffering is absolutely miniscule. I come from a large family (4 brothers, 4 sisters, 4 parents and countless close extended family members) with pretty diverse life experiences, philosophies, priorities and current realities, so it's pretty much impossible to get too down about things from my perspective. It's why I've never been sure what the right approach to deal with this is.

For those of us living alone there was the experience of social isolation that was previously unimaginable, for those of us with young kids there was the experience of an outrageous amount of juggling between work, childcare and selfcare (and in one case, a new and very difficult pregnancy on top!).

For those of us with normal jobs it's been an adjustment to new working conditions, stresses and job security, for those of us in hospitals it's all of that with an outsized responsibility and constant sense of impending doom, for those of us who were struggling to get jobs before the pandemic it's an absolute hammer blow to be competing against far more people for many fewer jobs, for those of us who are just about to leave education there's the prospect of one the worst job markets in a generation.

And while people are particularly quick to ignore or dismiss the lives of retirees on here, most of them haven't had as much to lose, but in many cases they've lost the only thing that really matters to them now: human bonding, particularly with grandkids. My granny's 89 living out in the country in an oversized house her late husband built, physically frail but mentally sharp, and she's essentially dealing with a kind of isolation that no-one in her lifetime had ever experienced before. And naturally changes in policy impact us all very differently too.

There's absolutely no part of society that has avoided suffering, but the reality is my biggest sacrifice has just been my social life. I'd never realised how much I'd taken it for granted that my life relied on me being able to see mates essentially whenever and wherever I wanted. I've all sorts of freedom but I hadn't appreciated the value of that social network. So I'll appreciate that more going forward. But there's too many people in my circle that have sacrificed that and lost much more severe things. So I do take on their struggles to some degree, but it pales in comparison. And it is just the case that millions of people are losing a shitload.

That's what grates me about the extremes on either side. They can see the callousness of one side discounting the value of long, healthy lives in old age, and the other side can see the callousness in discounting the severity of human suffering that comes with not being able to afford to live, but neither side acknowledges those joint-truths. They just point out one aspect of callousness and use it to attack the other. We don't have the right answers, even the experts. Surely it's helpful in maintaining social unity during a crisis to at least accept that one basic truth.

I am very sorry to hear he is struggling, but I have to point out that I absolutely cannot comprehend how anyone who listened to a single history lecture in his life can think this.
Yeah, it's not so much a conscious thought as a general underlying belief. Not that different to a spiritual belief. Yeah you can point out specific instances where it's not true, but they're just the exceptions that prove the rule, or you're quibbling over details, it's the big picture that matters. It's a difficult one to wrestle with!