The Final: Argentina vs France

[Oly Francis]

England's xG was 2.36. 1.60 of that was the two penalties, but then again conceding two penalties plus enough scoring chances to make a third goal pretty likely isn't much of a shutdown or control performance. Especially not when your own xG is just over 1. Play that game with the same chances ten times, and France would lose most of them.

That's a terrible, terrible way to analyse a results based on statistics.

1) None of the penalties (especially the 2nd one) were conceded in dangerous situations, so it basically means France created xG for england out of situations that shouldn't have generated any. Obviously 2 players made stupid mistakes so they didn't control their intervention from an individual standpoint, but that doesn't mean it wasn't controlled collectively. So what's left of englands 2.36xG if you remove both penalties? What big chances did they create? 0.8 xg or so?
2) You can't re-write game scenarios with "what ifs", assuming France wouldn't have reacted differently had they not scored that early or had england equalized a 2nd time. What are the chances that France would have conceded 2 PK again in those "rematches"? That's a very lazy demonstration. The fact is, France was ahead 165mn out of 200mn or so if you combine the games against England and Morocco and that's something you can't ignore while analysing what happened on the pitch.

 

[youngrell]

The overhead kick that hit the post was just the biggest chance, and emblematic of what sort of risk you're always running when you're only up by one - even if Morocco hadn't produced another scoring chance the whole game. But Morocco had a 1.06 xG, which is not exactly closing them down. Not that France were in trouble xG wise, with a French xG of 2.23, but the point here is they weren't operating at a level where they were basically suffocating or even controlling the game - Morocco not only could have had one, they should have had one. What you'd expect to see from a really commanding control performance would be an oppo xG that was half or a third of that, which happens often enough.

England's xG was 2.36. 1.60 of that was the two penalties, but then again conceding two penalties plus enough scoring chances to make a third goal pretty likely isn't much of a shutdown or control performance. Especially not when your own xG is just over 1. Play that game with the same chances ten times, and France would lose most of them.

I think you've got me wrong, I'm not claiming France have been commanding. I am saying they look like they are happy to be a goal in front and if the opponent pegs them back they know they can up the level to go ahead again. They seem very comfortable, if not completely convincing, in sitting back on a lead while knowing this.

It's a little risky, but also a good idea not to blow your whole load if you don't need to.

 

[justsomebloke]

That's a terrible, terrible way to analyse a results based on statistics.

1) None of the penalties (especially the 2nd one) were conceded in dangerous situations, so it basically means France created xG for england out of situations that shouldn't have generated any. Obviously 2 players made stupid mistakes so they didn't control their intervention from an individual standpoint, but that doesn't mean it wasn't controlled collectively. So what's left of englands 2.36xG if you remove both penalties? What big chances did they create? 0.8 xg or so?
2) You can't re-write game scenarios with "what ifs", assuming France wouldn't have reacted differently had they not scored that early or had england equalized a 2nd time. What are the chances that France would have conceded 2 PK again in those "rematches"? That's a very lazy demonstration. The fact is, France was ahead 165mn out of 200mn or so if you combine the games against England and Morocco and that's something you can't ignore while analysing what happened on the pitch.

1): 0.76, to be exact. Which isn't a lot, but is enough for a goal to be fairly likely. My point is very simple: If you concede two penalties, and additionally allow enough scoring chances to make a third oppo goal likely, you will in most cases lose the game. I'm not arguing that they were outplayed or showed great weakness, just that as the game developed they were in fact lucky not to lose it. 2 conceded penalties isn't divine intervention or accident, but exactly the sort of stupid mistakes that a team aspiring to win the world cup usually can't allow themselves to make. If anything, arguably the fact they did make those mistakes in such a crucial game counts rather massively against them if you're assessing them as potential champions.

2) I'm not rewriting anything. I'm simply pointing out that on the basis of the scoring chances produced by both sides in that game, France was lucky not to lose. In most cases they would have.

Against Morocco they certainly won deservedly. Here my point is just that being up 1-0, they did not succeed in stifling Morocco to such an extent that a Moroccan equaliser would have been surprising, or not in line with the overall game picture. They might have won it anyway (indeed, they should have, with the chances they produced especially in the first half), but they didn't leave themselves that much of a safety margin here. To me, neither the eye test or the underlying stats make it very difficult to imagine a 1-1 outcome in this game (although also not the most likely outcome).

Overall point: Neither of those wins were emphatic, and neither of them seem indicative of a pronounced ability to shut down an opponent, or control the game safely after taking the lead. Which again is why everyone keeps going on about their assumed second gear. Which they may or may not have. But in any case, while they are not in my opinion as convincing a team as they were four years ago, they're certainly more fun. I hope they find that extra gear.
.

 

[justsomebloke]

I think you've got me wrong, I'm not claiming France have been commanding. I am saying they look like they are happy to be a goal in front and if the opponent pegs them back they know they can up the level to go ahead again. They seem very comfortable, if not completely convincing, in sitting back on a lead while knowing this.

It's a little risky, but also a good idea not to blow your whole load if you don't need to.

So, the EGT (Extra Gear Theory). Guess we'll find out, hope you're right.

 

[Red Star One]

Can’t we just all agree that it’s good for football if a non-European nation wins it?

It’s actually the other way around, and it’s good for football when Europeans keep winning.

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

1): 0.76, to be exact. Which isn't a lot, but is enough for a goal to be fairly likely. My point is very simple: If you concede two penalties, and additionally allow enough scoring chances to make a third oppo goal likely, you will in most cases lose the game. I'm not arguing that they were outplayed or showed great weakness, just that as the game developed they were in fact lucky not to lose it. 2 conceded penalties isn't divine intervention or accident, but exactly the sort of stupid mistakes that a team aspiring to win the world cup usually can't allow themselves to make. If anything, arguably the fact they did make those mistakes in such a crucial game counts rather massively against them if you're assessing them as potential champions.

2) I'm not rewriting anything. I'm simply pointing out that on the basis of the scoring chances produced by both sides in that game, France was lucky not to lose. In most cases they would have.

Against Morocco they certainly won deservedly. Here my point is just that being up 1-0, they did not succeed in stifling Morocco to such an extent that a Moroccan equaliser would have been surprising, or not in line with the overall game picture. They might have won it anyway (indeed, they should have, with the chances they produced especially in the first half), but they didn't leave themselves that much of a safety margin here. To me, neither the eye test or the underlying stats make it very difficult to imagine a 1-1 outcome in this game (although also not the most likely outcome).

Overall point: Neither of those wins were emphatic, and neither of them seem indicative of a pronounced ability to shut down an opponent, or control the game safely after taking the lead. Which again is why everyone keeps going on about their assumed second gear. Which they may or may not have. But in any case, while they are not in my opinion as convincing a team as they were four years ago, they're certainly more fun. I hope they find that extra gear.
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I tend to agree that France plays with fire a bit too much trying to sit back after scoring. It's how they've been wired for years because with Kante and Pogba you had the best ball winner in the world to shield the backline, and probably the best long range passer of his generation to find Mbappe instantly from deep for a counter opportunity. Griezmann has been exceptional in his role, but he's not the same level of passer as Pogba from those areas, and Tchouameini is a fantastic prospect that brings more on the ball than Kante, but his reading and engine isn't at the same level.

Honestly given their personnel I think this France team would be better off trying to play a high line and controlling games constantly, but that's never been Deschamps preference. I think both teams will be vulnerable at the back Sunday, so it really comes down to final third decision making and finishing for me for who comes out on top.

 

[Red Star One]

Szymon Marciniak will be the ref for the final - I rate him and he should allow some football.

 

[TheNewEra]

It’s actually the other way around, and it’s good for football when Europeans keep winning.

I think it's nice when nations get their first world cup, like Morocco winning it would have been so fun to watch.

I don't really care much for dividing continents and caring too much about that. Same for what country wins, I'm not so much a nationalist but I do want a player like Messi to win a trophy after his career.

He's entertained us for 15 years, moments of just pure magic and hasn't won the WC. It's the worlds best scientists making breakthroughs not winning a Nobel prize. But romanticism and fate don't exist for me, stars don't align.

It's the XI that go on the pitch, how they perform on the day, how the ball bounces, the rub of the green. I personally see France just scraping it because of their overall team.

I think its just good for football that we get to watch Messi play in his last WC, in a final.

Mbappe will win 2-3 WCs I think, he will win champions leagues, maybe 3 or 4 Balon d'Ors. He's got so much time.

 

[Axe2401]

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[Samid]

Johnny Sins reffing the final.

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[Pocho]

I’d be really happy if we only lose by one goal. France is the best team of the world and has the best player of the moment. They are the current champions. Great WC by Argentina though.

 

[Oly Francis]

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Messi didn't train today according to local media. Not unexpected considering we could see he was touching his thigh during the Crotia game.

No concerns about his involvment in the final yet.

 

[mu4c_20le]

I’d be really happy if we only lose by one goal. France is the best team of the world and has the best player of the moment. They are the current champions. Great WC by Argentina though.

Stop it, you have this one in the bag. All the momentum is with Argentina.

 

[USREDEVIL]

Let's go you filthy argies. Gotta beat france.
Messi deserves to hoist the world cup trophy.

 

[MostHandsomePlayer]

Honestly, should move to a league format for the world cup. Winners of groups rolled into a superleague. Less drama but better matches.

 

[MostHandsomePlayer]

Bro, Croatia mid was running circles around Argentinian mid. They just didn't have anything going forward. What match were you watching?

But yes Argentina can win the mid but if they move up attacking slowly with passes they risk getting countered which is France's strong suit. Feel like Argentina can win the mid but should not want to.

 

[MostHandsomePlayer]

Molina is straight-line really fast. See his run on Alvarez goal but not sure how agile and lacking strength.

 

[Dirty Schwein]

I reckon most people will want Argentina to win except Brazilians, French and Ronaldo.

I hope the Argies shit house their way to a win.

Need to keep Griezmann quiet.

 

[MostHandsomePlayer]

First goal Griezmann wins the back of defense due to a really stupid gamble by the defender. Totally alone puts in a basic cross. He did what he had to do but nothing spectacular. Agree that Mbappe didn't do much. Most credit goes to Hernández for the cool finish.

Second goal most credit to Mbappe.

 

[MostHandsomePlayer]

England vs X

 

[MostHandsomePlayer]

He is not shit. People are retarded when judging Di Maria cause he is so unorthodox.
This year he's barely played and has no reason to care but still has 4 assists in 10 club matches.
Monster weirdo class player.

 

[Rooney in Paris]

@MostHandsomePlayer you ok luv?

 

[Flexdegea]

What does everyone think of these Benzema rumours?



Surely can't be true. Be a incredible story and I'd say incredible boost for the squad as well. Imagine him sitting on the bench ready to come on

 

[Sweet Square]

I reckon most people will want Argentina to win except Brazilians, French and Ronaldo.

Was listening to Tim Vickery today and he said at the moment it’s spilt in the Brazilian media. Some are ABA(Anyone but Argentina)but a lot of people admire Messi. Also some want Argentina to win as way to punish the Brazil team/manager.

 

[The Corinthian]

Was listening to Tim Vickery today and he said at the moment it’s spilt in the Brazilian media. Some are ABA(Anyone but Argentina)but a lot of people admire Messi. Also some want Argentina to win as way to punish the Brazil team/manager.

Can a loss be a win?

 

[Sweet Square]

Can a loss be a win?

 

[MostHandsomePlayer]

Firstly, thank you for addressing me by my proper title.

Van Gaal is the only fool who failed to integrate Di Maria in a team. Didn't he start off playing him as a CAM? Ha ha ha! How did United fair with VG??? Rhetorical.

Every time I see Argentina, he is easily their best player destabilizing the defense while Messi walks around picking his arse waiting for an opportune time to claim glory. The only title Argentina won was when DM played - surprise! Stop acting like Messi is dragging a team with no stars. Bollocks.

 

[Sweet Square]

I think they'll have to leave it at those two. Argentinas defensive solidarity isn't based off individuals of the highest caliber but a system that gives you enough layers of protection and effort of course. They're not a team that can field Giroud Mbappe and Dembele (and Griezmann) and get away with it. The likes of Otamendi would be torn apart imo.

So I'd stick with what worked in the last game. ADM is a decent sub to have.

Yeah I think your right here. A lot will depend on how of the ball France will let Argentina have. Both teams seem to favour counter attacking.

 

[MostHandsomePlayer]

Argentina does not favor counterattacking cause without Di Maria the only scorer that can run is Mad Dog Alvarez. Croatia had only one player to watch and they failed! Hormone peripheral until it was all but over. France favors counterattacking cause their defenders are low IQ and cannot coordinate on anything like a high line.

If Argentina controls possession they will lose. Only chance for Argentina is to sit back and counter with Mad Dog Alvarez but it won't be enough unless ANGEL Di Maria comes in and saves them. Messi will NOT have an impact...mark my words! Even then, Argentina cannot sit back too much cause they will get destroyed in the air by Chad Giroud and Donkey Kong will win heaps of dangerous free kicks, probably pk. Argentina has to play 2 tight lines of 4 at medium height. Very fine margin.

 

[GinobiliTheGOAT]

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Messi didn't train today according to local media. Not unexpected considering we could see he was touching his thigh during the Crotia game.

No concerns about his involvment in the final yet.

None of the players who played against Croatia trained today

 

[GinobiliTheGOAT]

What does everyone think of these Benzema rumours?



Surely can't be true. Be a incredible story and I'd say incredible boost for the squad as well. Imagine him sitting on the bench ready to come on

Its BS. He hasn’t played in 2 months. He may come on for a cameo if France have the match in the bag

 

[BarcaSpurs]

Betting odds are literally 50/50 on the winner here, genuinely an absolute coinflip with no perceived favourite.

 

[Oly Francis]

None of the players who played against Croatia trained today

That's not what this article says but you probably have better sources from argentina :
https://argentina.as.com/futbol/mes...=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1671126510

 

[beer&grill]

I’d be really happy if we only lose by one goal. France is the best team of the world and has the best player of the moment. They are the current champions. Great WC by Argentina though.

Don’t sell yourself short mate, you have got a good team, not as good as France on paper, I agree, but on the field I don’t think it’s the case. France at this WC was Stoke on steroids and they luckboxed their way into the final.

 

[RedRonaldo]

If France win Mbappe would have won 2 WC at age 23, he may even break Pele 3 WC record later. He will become absolutely intolerable.

And imagine if he is also going to break Messi Ballon D'or record and Ronaldo goals record in future....

I'd rather Argentina win it this time.

 

[GinobiliTheGOAT]

That's not what this article says but you probably have better sources from argentina :
https://argentina.as.com/futbol/mes...=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1671126510

Just realized where I initially read it they didn’t provide a source go figure

 

[steve zizou]

Szymon Marciniak will be the ref for the final - I rate him and he should allow some football.

Is he the hench Polish ref? I called it soon as Poland went out that he'll get the final. Should have put a bet on it

 

[TPM]

Stop it, you have this one in the bag. All the momentum is with Argentina.

What momentum?

 

[TheRedHearted]

Argentina could be tough enough but let’s be honest, France are just way more well rounded. I could see France scoring one and then the flood gates open up. Don’t see France falling apart like that

 

[Red the Bear]

Nah, they are not anymore since a long time and rightly so… France, on the other hand, is (with Germany) our most interconnected country in the present times, so we should be really supporting them.

I think ancestry wise More than half of them have Italian blood.