You said it.... credible threat.
From what I have read, that so called credible threat was questionable at best and most probably orchestrated.
100% but proving that is virtually impossible... as I say if somebody phones in a threat that sounds credible (and lets be honest any government's intelligent services will have people capable of doing that)... then all protocalls have been followed I think
The pilot is in Belarus airspace and although when he did turn around Vilnius was closer when the request was made it was still Minsk I think
At that point its standard to scrable a fighter jet (incase the pilot goes all 911) and as the pilot didn't immediately comply with instructions to head to Minsk (guess it sounded dodgy to them?) But the protocol would be to tell them to comply or face being shot down
As I say totally illegal... but pretty efficiently executed (compared to say the Saudis chopping up a journalist or the uk/us chucking people on cargo planes for somebody else to torture for them)
Clearly they knew the protocols and what they were doing... Will be interesting to see if putin gives him political cover or decides he's gone too far (not a moral judgement but a Practical political one from putin)
I'd like to think all airlines will immediately stop flying there and re route away from their airspace as well